Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - December 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (5/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/2)-(5/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/2)-(5/3/2)-(5/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/2)-(3/4/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2)-(3/4/8)-(5/3/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-2   WIN (3/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/8)-(3/4/8/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/4/8)-(3/4/8/2)-(3/4/8/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/4/8)-(5/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/4/8)-(5/3/2)-(8/9/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-3   WIN (5/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/2)-(5/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/2)-(5/3/2)-(5/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/2)-(8/9/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2)-(8/9/2)-(8/5/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-4   WIN (8/9/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/9/2)-(8/9/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/9/2)-(8/9/2/4)-(8/9/2/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/9/2)-(8/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/9/2)-(8/5/1)-(3/6/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-5   WIN (8/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/1)-(8/7/5/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/1)-(8/7/5/1/4)-(8/7/5/1/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/5/1)-(3/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/5/1)-(3/6/2)-(9/4/11/6/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-6   WIN (3/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/2)-(3/6/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/6/2)-(3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/6/2)-(9/4/11/6/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/6/2)-(9/4/11/6/8)-(9/7/6/1/12) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
AQU-7   WIN (9/4/11/6/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/4/11/6/8)-(9/4/11/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/4/11/6/8)-(9/4/11/6/8)-(9/4/11/6/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/4/11/6/8)-(9/7/6/1/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
AQU-8   WIN (9/7/6/1/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/7/6/1/12)-(9/7/6/1/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/7/6/1/12)-(9/7/6/1/12)-(9/7/6/1/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   12/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AVALANCHE IS COMIN Nov21 Oct26 Sep03 Aug06 Jun24 (chichakly a)PAREDES JHOVANY 115 20.00    
2  STOP GIGGLING         (levine bruce)SILVERA RUBEN 122 4.00 13% 7.00    
3  GRACEFUL Nov25 Oct06 Aug16 Jul29 Jun02 (friedman mitche)DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.00 16% 5.40    
4  DRAMATIC EFFECT Nov05 Oct06 Jul29     (henry nevi)MITCHELL RICHARD 124 20.00    
5  BELLE OF THE BALL Oct22 Jan21 Apr10 Feb06 Jan15 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 124 0.80 44% 1.30    
6  CHIARA (URU) Nov25 Oct24 Jan05 Nov12 Sep03 (bond harol)RIVERA R 119 5.00    
 
AQU-2   12/15/2023 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STRAPPED Oct07 Sep28 Sep14 Aug23 Jun25 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 2.50    
2  GRANDPA'S KID Dec01 Oct25 Oct11 Sep27 Sep07 (persaud randi)DAVIS DYLAN 120 15.00 ★    
3  STJAMES Dec02 Nov10 Aug20 Jul28 Jun04 (gyarmati lea)CASTELLANO J 123 3.00 42% 1.40    
4  ANTHRACITE Nov26 Nov10 Oct21 Aug24 Jul21 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 6.00 23% 3.30    
5  GOLDEN PURCHASE Dec01 Nov09 Nov02 Oct05 Aug17 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 123 30.00    
6  AULA Dec02 Nov17 Oct13 Sep25 Jul26 (maker michael)SILVERA RUBEN 120 8.00    
7  MEMPHIS Nov09 Oct21 Aug12 Jul19 Jul01 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.50    
8  MASTERWORK Dec01 Nov09 Mar31 Mar19 Feb19 (morley tho)RIVERA R 115 4.00 12% 7.40    
 
AQU-3   12/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($95K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPUN AND WON Nov01 Sep24 Sep03 Jul14 Jun06 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.50    
SCR  HE'SMYHONEYBADGER Dec02 Oct12 Sep15 Aug13 Jun30 (jacobson d)RIVERA R 119 3.50    
2  BOURBON MUSIC Oct24 Sep21 Oct18 Sep09 Aug19 (moore m)CARMOUCHE K 122 8.00 16% 5.20    
3  NOVA RAGS Nov17 Jun22 Apr28 Feb10 Dec30 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 4.00 28% 2.60    
4  B DAWK Dec17 Nov04 Oct22 Sep24 Jul29 (o'neill doug)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00    
5  BABY YODA Nov17 Sep21 Aug25 Jul16 May06 (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.50 29% 2.40    
6  BEACHWALKER Oct14 Oct04 Aug05 Jul05 May15 (per)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 30.00    
SCR  COWAN Nov24 Oct27 Oct14 Oct01 Sep22 (ginter r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 3.00    
 
AQU-4   12/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ACCELERINA Nov17 Sep01 Jul04 Aug20   (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 122 4.50    
2  MO DAMORNINGGROUCH Nov25 Nov10 Jul23 Jun24 May13 (reynolds patric)RUIZ ELISEO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  SASSY TALLAHASSEE Nov21 Nov08 Oct25 Sep27 Sep12 (sells rach)RIVERA R 119 30.00    
4  MALU Nov17 Oct12       (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.00 ★    
SCR  DALE AVENUE Nov21         (breed ro)DAVIS A 122 30.00    
6  UNHOLY Nov10 Oct06 Sep15 Jul02 May21 (nevin )MARAGH RAMSAY 122 15.00    
7  MONTAUK MYSTIQUE Nov26 Oct26 Sep15 Aug10 Jul15 (miceli michael)DAVIS DYLAN 122 8.00    
8  VOLEUSE Nov17 Sep14 Sep04 Jul22 Dec16 (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 124 1.40 67% 0.50    
9  ESSENTIAL LIFE         (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 122 6.00 10% 8.90    
 
AQU-5   12/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY FRIENDS BEER Nov25 Oct28 Sep21 Aug10 Jun25 (walder r)RUIZ ELISEO 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  CO CONSPIRATOR Nov30 Oct23 Oct09 Sep18 Sep04 (d'ales)MARAGH RAMSAY 125 15.00    
3  FOREVER WICKED Nov25 Jun16 May18 Apr14 Mar26 (persaud rand)HARKIE K 121 30.00    
4  CENTAVO Aug02 Jul22 Jul04 Jun10 May21 (chatt)HERNANDEZ OMAR 125 8.00 ★    
5  BLAKE B. Nov25 Oct22 Jun24 May27 Apr01 (romero jes)RIVERA R 118 3.50 5% 19.00    
6  PRINCE OF JOY Dec01 Oct15 Sep22 Jul16 Jun18 (legall ric)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 116 30.00    
7  GOLDINI Nov25 Nov04 Oct21 Sep30 Aug06 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 123 4.00 ★    
8  HAMMERIN AAMER Nov25 Oct28 Oct12 Sep03 Aug06 (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.80 62% 0.60    
9  PIT BOSS Nov30 Oct28 Oct12 Oct05 Aug29 (potts wayne)LUZZI J 123 6.00    
 
AQU-6   12/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOOSHAY Nov16 Oct06 Aug16 Jun03 May14 (contessa ga)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 12.00 ★    
  (by MO TOWN out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE by AWESOME AGAIN)
2  WHY WASTE WORDS Nov05 Oct05 Jul15     (bond harol)RIVERA R 116 6.00 16% 5.30    
  (by BERNARDINI out of THE ROAD NOT TAKEN by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
3  LA GIRVINA Sep15 Aug18       (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 3.00 36% 1.80    
  (by GIRVIN out of LIBBYRIS by ALGORITHMS)
4  RAYYA VALENTINE Oct19 Sep24 Aug18     (summers chad)CASTELLANO J 121 3.50    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of RAYYA by TIZ WONDERFUL)
SCR  WATCH OVER ME Oct26         (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 121 20.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of MATCHMADEINHEAVEN by UTOPIA (JPN))
6  MISINTENTION Nov26 Oct22 Sep22 Sep23 Sep04 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 2.50 24% 3.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CROWNED by BERNARDINI)
7  SHIRL'S DELIGHT Nov19 Sep26 Mar19 Feb19 Jan15 (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 121 3.50    
  (by TONALIST out of DECRYPT by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
8  LIL JERSEY GIRL Oct26         (siculietan)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 114 50.00    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of NORTHERN WARRIOR by DESERT WARRIOR)
 
AQU-7   12/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($75K) 2 ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUNNING LUCKY Nov30 Nov11 Oct19 Aug25 Aug04 (summers chad)CASTELLANO J 118 30.00    
SCR  BONNE CHANCE Nov18 Oct29 Sep24 Sep04   (levine bruce)SILVERA RUBEN 120 15.00    
3  ALWAYS A WARRIOR Nov18 Sep24 Aug27 Jul16   (david a)CANCEL ERIC 120 12.00    
4  AGGELOS THE GREAT Nov18 Oct29 Sep24 Sep14 Jul28 (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 31% 2.30    
5  ICE THE KICKER Nov18 Oct22 Jul16     (giddings melan)LUZZI J 120 30.00    
6  DETECTIVE TOM Nov18 Sep24 Aug24     (nevin miche)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  MISCHIEF JOKE Oct29 Oct16 Sep21 Aug23 Jul28 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00    
8  PERLIANO Nov18 Oct20 Sep21 Aug11 Jul07 (atras rob)RIVERA R 115 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  ELYSIAN MEADOWS Nov18         (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.50 38% 1.60    
10  TAPORICAL Nov30 Nov01 Oct19 Aug30 Aug03 (sells )MARAGH RAMSAY 118 50.00    
11  SLAMMIN GOLD Nov04 Oct05 Sep14     (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.00 6% 16.30    
 
AQU-8   12/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FANCY FELINE Nov13 Oct23 Oct04 Sep02 Jul09 (sells rachel)CANCEL ERIC 120 10.00 6% 17.10    
2  LAVON Nov25 Oct19 Aug11 Jun15 Apr23 (coffey marial)OLVER MADISON 115 15.00    
3  DASHING DELLA Nov26 Nov03 Oct19 Oct01 Sep14 (arenas marce)CASTELLANO J 118 15.00    
4  LONGLIVE THE QUEEN Jul08 May14 Dec24     (delacour a)RIVERA R 113 8.00    
5  BERN ROSEY BERN Nov19 Oct26 May14 Apr22 Feb25 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 120 15.00    
6  CLOVER STREET Nov03 Oct08 Jul19 Jun15 May21 (hennig mark)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 6.00 9% 9.90    
7  SUPERS LUCKY LADY Nov19 Sep14       (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 27% 2.80    
8  FREDDYMO FACTOR Dec08 Nov25 Nov05 Oct08 Sep24 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 122 50.00    
9  BETTER HUMOR ME Nov25 Oct12 Aug12     (baker charlton)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00 36% 1.70    
SCR  HARLAN'S BOND Dec03 Nov09 Oct08 Sep14 Aug09 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 10.00    
11  REIGNING CHICK Nov25 Nov03 Jul27 Jul03 Jun15 (walder r)RUIZ ELISEO 115 8.00    
12  JACKSON AVENUE Nov13 Oct23 Oct04 Sep24 Aug22 (breed ro)DAVIS A 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.