The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Penn National
Thursday - September 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

PEN-1   Win (7/1/3/2/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 0 $33.20 -10.00
PEN-2   Win (8/5/6/7/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 5 1 1 $10.20 $10.20 0.20
PEN-3   Win (3/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $21.40 -6.00
PEN-4   Win (6/8/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $4.40 $4.40 -3.60
PEN-5   Win (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $6.40 $6.40 0.40
PEN-6   Win (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 0 $25.00 -6.00
PEN-7   Win (7/2/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 0 $15.00 -8.00

Simulator Race results

 
PEN-1   09/21/2023 5490ft TURF GOOD Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
1:411         1:411   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  RECONVENE 10 9 10 108 7 51(lawrence lee)CRUZ ANGEL 120 8.00 15.60  
GALILEE 6 8 96 97 53 22(moreno tito)DIAZ VLADIMIR 120 15.00 20.80  
LA PAZ 2 3 3 32 31 33(smith thomas )INIRIO J 122 6.00 7% 12.60 13.00 S
RECYCLE 7 2 2½ 1nk 11 144 (houghton th)HERNANDEZ A 120 6.00 24% 3.10 3.40  
LUCKY RUNNING CAT 3 4 63 6 42 45(crook-demasi kat)CONNER TYLER 124 3.50 16% 5.30 4.50  
CITY OF GOD 8 5 42 4 6 66(kreiser c)CORA D 120 10.00 34.80  
JACK SLYE 4 6 5 5 9 77(graci a)AGUILAR M 120 8.00 5% 19.00 18.70  
GRAEL 1 7 74 7 8 8810¼ (hendriks richard )BEATO INOEL 120 4.50 24% 3.20 1.20  
WARRIOR'S CAUSE 5 1 1½ 2nk 21 916¾ 925¾ (kulp brando)RODRIGUEZ R 118 6.00 11.60  
HELLMAN 9 10 84 8 10 1030¾ 1054¾ (kreiser c)CHIAPPE R 120 10.00 53.70  
SCR  BIG JOHN               (barboza vic)HERNANDEZ A 118 10.00    
SCR  KAZ SWEET HEIST               (synnefias dimitr)CONNER TYLER 120 12.00    
 
PEN-2   09/21/2023 5490ft TURF GOOD Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:29
:222 :463 1:103 1:36   1:401   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROAN FOR THE ROSE 5 7 66 5 43 43 1¼ (moreno tito)BEATO INOEL 122 8.00 34% 2.00 4.10 W
GETTIN'DOWNONIT 7 6 22 2 1nk 12 2¼ (beecher mark)CRUZ ANGEL 120 6.00 5% 19.00 8.00 P
MACHO HONCHO 2 2 7 7 77 65 3½ (salvaggio m)HERNANDEZ A 120 8.00 5.10  
MISCHIEF WARRIOR 8 5 44 33 32 32 4¾ (kulp brando)RODRIGUEZ R 120 3.00 36% 1.80 2.50  
MORNING MARCH 1 1 32 4 55 54 5(gordon-watson a)DIAZ VLADIMIR 122 15.00 60.60  
I LUCKED OUT 4 4 12 1 2nk 22 6(pino v)BOWMAN ADAM 120 4.00 3.50  
PROPHETS VOICE (IRE) 6 8 8 8 8 89 7(hendriks rich)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 6.00 6% 16.50 14.80  
10  RIVERBOAT BANDIT 10 10 1011¾ 10 1012¼ 911 88 (cifarelli fran)VILLEGAS JERRY 120 50.00 90.00  
RUNAHOLIC 9 3 5 64 6 78 910¼ (salvaggio v)CONNER TYLER 120 5.00 9.30  
FIGHTNOMOREFOREVER 3 9 911½ 9 910¼ 1012 1010½ (boniface kevi)CORUJO LEONARDO 120 12.00 5% 19.00 20.60  
SCR  HURRICANE ANDREW               (richards mar)HENRY JR 122 20.00    
 
PEN-3   09/21/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($31.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:58
:24 :474 1:124     1:454   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JUMP FOR THE WIN 4 3 2½ 2nk 1nk 1½ 1(kreiser c)CHIAPPE R 120 8.00 9.70  
BESTSUGARDADDYEVER 2 5 5 41 3 32(russell brittany)CONNER TYLER 118 5.00 16% 5.20 2.30 P
NOSTALGIC RUN 3 2 1½ 1nk 2nk 2½ 3(mancilla a)CRUZ ANGEL 120 3.00 32% 2.10 1.00 S
SKIMBLE SHANKS 1 4 4 5 44 46 411¾ (beattie sande)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 10.00 14.50  
SPENDOLINI 6 1 31 3½ 5 512 522¾ (beattie m)DIAZ VLADIMIR 118 6.00 9.60  
REBEL RULER 5 6 63 6 6 617 630¾ (kulp brando)RODRIGUEZ R 120 4.00 28% 2.50 5.20  
SCR  MITROPANOS               (zalalas michael)BEATO INOEL 120 8.00    
SCR  SANTO               (mcclellan c)CONNER TYLER 120 10.00    
SCR  TUDOX OPPORTUNITY               (rathman eli)HERNANDEZ A 118 8.00    
 
PEN-4   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:28
:223 :453 :583     1:104   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SWEET BEAUTY 7 2 2nk 2   2nk 1(kreiser timoth)VILLEGAS JERRY 122 4.50 25% 3.00 1.20 W
STEPHANIE MY LOVE 8 1 3.2 1   1nk 2(lucas bonnie)CHIAPPE R 120 8.00 10% 9.40 6.40 P
KAZ MUSIC 1 5 4 5   43 3(sinnefia paulina)CONNER TYLER 120 3.00 13% 6.90 2.40 S
LONDON LADY 5 4 5 3   32 4(lucas bonnie)BEATO INOEL 122 3.50 32% 2.10 5.10  
LET'S GO MO 4 8 7 6   58 5(miller marlin)INIRIO J 117 10.00 35.50  
TRECHMO GIRL 3 6 6 810¼   810¼ 612¼ (kravets m)AGUILAR M 120 15.00 55.50  
RIGHTOFFTHEBENCH 6 7 86 7   610 714½ (stites flin)HERNANDEZ A 120 12.00 14.20  
UPTOWN SERAPHINA 2 3 1nk 43   710¼ 818¼ (houghton thomas)CORA D 120 10.00 15.60  
SCR  HAPPY RIDE               (kreiser tim)RODRIGUEZ R 122 4.00    
 
PEN-5   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($28.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
:223 :442 :57     1:091   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BOURBON MUSIC 4 2 2½ 2nk   11(moore micha)RODRIGUEZ R 120 4.00 41% 1.50 2.20 W
EAGLES CRY 3 5 43 32   32(stites w)CHIAPPE R 120 8.00 10.60  
DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN 1 3 1½ 1nk   23(kreiser tim)HERNANDEZ A 120 3.00 16% 5.30 1.60 S
JEOPARDY JAMES 6 7 66 5   44(alvarado diane)CENTENO E 120 3.50 17% 4.90 4.10  
YES IT'S ROO 5 6 76 7   75(albright amy)VILLEGAS JERRY 120 10.00 41.80  
JOKER BOY 7 1 55 6   667 (jacobson david)CRUZ ANGEL 120 5.00 4.60  
KILIMANJARA 2 4 3 4   57(houghton thomas)CORA D 117 12.00 19.80  
SCR  JUMPMASTER               (synnefias panagi)CONNER TYLER 120 6.00    
 
PEN-6   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:26
:222 :451 :581     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BUSTIN DOWN DOORS 6 2 41 2nk   11 12 (spina charles)TORRES JOMAR 120 6.00 11.50  
SAVE GRACE 5 6 54 5   322 (lucas bonnie)BEATO INOEL 122 2.50 48% 1.10 2.20 P
COSMOLOGICAL 3 3 3½ 1nk   21 3(ramirez ric)RODRIGUEZ R 122 3.00 8% 12.10 1.40 S
MADI'S TUNE 1 4 1½ 3½   46 412¾ (kravets bruce)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 3.00 20% 4.10 2.20  
SIMPLE JUSTICE 7 5 67 6   511 514 (montford leslie)TUNON JORDANO 122 10.00 54.90  
IOANNA 2 1 2½ 4   611 619 (sinnefia paul)CORUJO LEONARDO 120 15.00 96.90  
UNCAPTURED GRACE 4 7 714 714¼   716 722½ (lingenfelter thomas)BAKER J 122 5.00 12.90  
 
PEN-7   09/21/2023 5610ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:55
:231 :471 1:114 1:383   1:454   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LAKE NAKURU 6 6 47 44 3 11 1hd (ferreira fernando)CORA D 124 6.00 6.50  
DEVOTED KITTEN 8 7 811½ 810 6 42hd (moreno-barban)CORUJO LEONARDO 122 6.00 12% 7.10 10.10 P
WARRIOR IN CHIEF 5 2 11 1½ 1nk 21 3¼ (lucas bonnie)BEATO INOEL 124 3.00 1.60  
ARISTOCAT 1 1 21 2½ 2nk 34(kreiser tim)RODRIGUEZ R 122 6.00 5.00  
DIGGERS DIAMOND 3 5 7 7 8 555 (geist w)DIAZ VLADIMIR 122 50.00 ######  
VISHNU 4 8 6 6 5 666 (kravets bruce)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 30.00 5% 19.00 ######  
SAMARONTI 2 4 57 5 7 77(kulp l)BOWMAN ADAM 122 2.50 19% 4.30 7.20  
C C'S WARRIOR 7 3 32 3 4 8816½ (mcclellan c)CONNER TYLER 122 3.00 40% 1.50 2.30  
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.