Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Penn National
Thursday - September 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
PEN-1   WIN (7/1/3/2/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/1/3/2/4)-(7/1/3/2/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/1/3/2/4)-(7/1/3/2/4)-(7/1/3/2/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/1/3/2/4)-(8/5/6/7/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (7/1/3/2/4)-(8/5/6/7/3)-(3/7/2) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
PEN-2   WIN (8/5/6/7/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/5/6/7/3)-(8/5/6/7/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/5/6/7/3)-(8/5/6/7/3)-(8/5/6/7/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/5/6/7/3)-(3/7/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/5/6/7/3)-(3/7/2)-(6/8/1/9) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
PEN-3   WIN (3/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/2)-(3/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/2)-(3/7/2)-(3/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/2)-(6/8/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2)-(6/8/1/9)-(4/6/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PEN-4   WIN (6/8/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/1/9)-(6/8/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/8/1/9)-(6/8/1/9)-(6/8/1/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/8/1/9)-(4/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/8/1/9)-(4/6/1)-(5/1/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PEN-5   WIN (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/1)-(4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/1)-(5/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1)-(5/1/3)-(7/2/8/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PEN-6   WIN (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/3)-(5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/3)-(7/2/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
PEN-7   WIN (7/2/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/8/4)-(7/2/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/8/4)-(7/2/8/4)-(7/2/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
PEN-1   09/21/2023 5490ft TURF RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRAEL Sep07 Aug12 Jul14 Jun23 Jan20 (hendriks richar)BEATO INOEL 120 4.50 24% 3.20    
2  LA PAZ Aug09 Jul19 Jun21 May26 Jan19 (smith thoma)INIRIO J 122 6.00 7% 12.60    
3  LUCKY RUNNING CAT Aug31 Aug09 Jul19 Jun21 May31 (crook-demasi k)CONNER TYLER 124 3.50 16% 5.30    
4  JACK SLYE Aug10 Jul13 Jun20 Jun02 May17 (graci a)AGUILAR M 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  WARRIOR'S CAUSE Sep06 Aug15 Aug01 Jul12 Jun16 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 118 6.00    
6  GALILEE Aug30 Aug10 Jul20 Jul06 Aug24 (moreno tito)DIAZ VLADIMIR 120 15.00    
7  RECYCLE Jul24 Jul13 Jun20 May29 Nov07 (houghton )HERNANDEZ A 120 6.00 24% 3.10    
8  CITY OF GOD Sep13 Aug24 Aug09 Jul26 Jun29 (kreiser c)CORA D 120 10.00    
9  HELLMAN Aug19 Jul30 Jun23 May25 May14 (kreiser c)CHIAPPE R 120 10.00    
10  RECONVENE Aug19 Aug04 Jul29 Jul15 Jun20 (lawrence jam)BARBOSA JEIRON 120 8.00    
SCR  BIG JOHN Aug26 Aug03 Jun11 Apr28 Mar15 (barboza v)HERNANDEZ A 118 10.00    
SCR  KAZ SWEET HEIST Aug27 Jul23 Jul01 Jun03 May14 (synnefias dimi)CONNER TYLER 120 12.00    
 
PEN-2   09/21/2023 5490ft TURF RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORNING MARCH Sep06 Aug15 Jul20 Jul10 Jun07 (gordon-watson)DIAZ VLADIMIR 122 15.00    
2  MACHO HONCHO Aug31 Aug09 Jul27 Jul07 Mar17 (salvaggio)HERNANDEZ A 120 8.00    
3  FIGHTNOMOREFOREVER Sep07 Aug17 Jul13 Jul07 Jun17 (boniface ke)CORUJO LEONARDO 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  I LUCKED OUT Aug20 Aug05 Jun18 Nov22 Sep24 (pino v)BOWMAN ADAM 120 4.00    
5  ROAN FOR THE ROSE Aug31 Aug09 Jun16 May03 Apr18 (moreno tito)BEATO INOEL 122 8.00 34% 2.00    
6  PROPHETS VOICE (IRE) Aug09 Aug02 Jul15 May31   (hendriks ri)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 6.00 6% 16.50    
7  GETTIN'DOWNONIT Aug31 Aug11 Jul09 Jun23 May31 (beecher mar)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
8  MISCHIEF WARRIOR Aug31 Aug17 Jul31 Jun29 Jun14 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 120 3.00 36% 1.80    
9  RUNAHOLIC Sep06 Aug18 Jul12 Jun16 May25 (salvaggio mark)CONNER TYLER 120 5.00    
10  RIVERBOAT BANDIT Aug31 Aug09 Jul19 Jun21 Jun14 (cifarelli fr)VILLEGAS JERRY 120 50.00    
SCR  HURRICANE ANDREW Sep06 Aug23 Jun28 Jun03 Nov05 (richards m)HENRY JR 122 20.00    
 
PEN-3   09/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($31.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SKIMBLE SHANKS Aug18 Jul27 Jul20 Jul13 Jun20 (beattie san)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 10.00    
2  BESTSUGARDADDYEVER Sep02 Oct22 Sep01 Aug06   (russell brittan)GOMEZ KEVIN 118 5.00 16% 5.20    
3  NOSTALGIC RUN Jul17 Jun17 Apr29 Apr07 Feb18 (mancilla carlos )CRUZ ANGEL 120 3.00 32% 2.10    
4  JUMP FOR THE WIN Aug09 Jul20 Jul05 Jun02 May11 (kreiser c)CHIAPPE R 120 8.00    
SCR  MITROPANOS Sep13 Aug24 Aug09 Jul24 Jul07 (zalalas michael)BEATO INOEL 120 8.00    
SCR  TUDOX OPPORTUNITY Aug24 Jul27 Jun30     (rathman e)HERNANDEZ A 118 8.00    
7  REBEL RULER Aug31 Aug02 Jun15 May12 Apr29 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 120 4.00 28% 2.50    
8  SPENDOLINI Jul24 Oct25 Oct07     (beattie todd )DIAZ VLADIMIR 118 6.00    
SCR  SANTO Sep01 Aug09 Jul07 Jun15 May18 (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 120 10.00    
 
PEN-4   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KAZ MUSIC Aug31 Aug23 Jul28 Jul06 Jun16 (sinnefia pauli)CONNER TYLER 120 3.00 13% 6.90    
2  UPTOWN SERAPHINA Aug31 Aug08 Jul07 Jun16 Apr20 (houghton thomas)CORA D 120 10.00    
3  TRECHMO GIRL Aug23 Aug08 Jul07 May25 May05 (kravets m)AGUILAR M 120 15.00    
4  LET'S GO MO Aug31 Aug23 Aug04 Jul12 Jun20 (miller marlin)ROJAS MARTINA 117 10.00    
SCR  HAPPY RIDE Aug31 Aug04 Jun30 Jun22 Jun10 (kreiser t)RODRIGUEZ R 122 4.00    
6  LONDON LADY Sep10 Aug20 Jul28 Jul09 Jun25 (lucas bonnie)BEATO INOEL 122 3.50 32% 2.10    
7  RIGHTOFFTHEBENCH Sep06 Jul13 Jun15 May11   (stites fl)HERNANDEZ A 120 12.00    
8  SWEET BEAUTY Aug04 Jul15 Jun25 May13 Apr27 (kreiser timo)VILLEGAS JERRY 122 4.50 25% 3.00    
9  STEPHANIE MY LOVE Sep04 Aug12 Jul28 Jul09 Jun25 (lucas bonnie)CHIAPPE R 120 8.00 10% 9.40    
 
PEN-5   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($28.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN Aug18 Aug02 Jul06 Jun15 May18 (kreiser t)HERNANDEZ A 120 3.00 16% 5.30    
2  KILIMANJARA Aug09 Jul07 Jun19 Jun10 May06 (houghton thomas)CORA D 117 12.00    
3  EAGLES CRY Sep01 Aug18 Jul20 Jun29 Jun13 (stites w)CHIAPPE R 120 8.00    
4  BOURBON MUSIC Oct18 Sep09 Aug19 Jun29 Jun03 (moore mic)RODRIGUEZ R 120 4.00 41% 1.50    
5  YES IT'S ROO Sep01 Aug16 Jul27 Jul12 May17 (albright amy)VILLEGAS JERRY 120 10.00    
6  JEOPARDY JAMES Aug30 Jul19 Jul24 Jun30 Apr16 (alvarado diane)CENTENO E 120 3.50 17% 4.90    
7  JOKER BOY Aug30 Aug16 May20 Apr08 Mar12 (jacobson david)CRUZ ANGEL 120 5.00    
SCR  JUMPMASTER Aug23 Jul27 Jul06 Jun15 May17 (synnefias pana)CONNER TYLER 120 6.00    
 
PEN-6   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MADI'S TUNE Sep08 Aug31 Jul21 Jun22 May25 (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 3.00 20% 4.10    
2  IOANNA Sep08 Aug25 Aug10 Jul12 Jun29 (sinnefia pa)CORUJO LEONARDO 120 15.00    
3  COSMOLOGICAL Sep08 Aug21 Aug04 Jun30 Jun02 (ramirez r)RODRIGUEZ R 122 3.00 8% 12.10    
4  UNCAPTURED GRACE Jul26 Jul12 Jun29 Jun15 Apr27 (lingenfelter thom)BAKER J 122 5.00    
5  SAVE GRACE Sep04 Jul30 Jun17 May21 Mar18 (lucas bonnie)BEATO INOEL 122 2.50 48% 1.10    
6  BUSTIN DOWN DOORS Sep02 Jun18 May27 Sep11 Aug27 (spina charles)TORRES JOMAR 120 6.00    
7  SIMPLE JUSTICE Sep07 Jul26 Jul12 Jun29 May24 (montford lesl)TUNON JORDANO 122 10.00    
 
PEN-7   09/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARISTOCAT Sep01 Aug08 Jul27 Jun23 Jun02 (kreiser t)RODRIGUEZ R 122 6.00    
2  SAMARONTI Sep01 Aug08 Aug02 Jul07 Jun22 (kulp l)BOWMAN ADAM 122 2.50 19% 4.30    
3  DIGGERS DIAMOND Aug30 Aug08 Jul13 Jun16 May24 (geist w)FLORES E 122 50.00    
4  VISHNU Sep01 Aug08 Jul14 Jun21 May17 (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
5  WARRIOR IN CHIEF Aug30 Jun16 May11 Apr06 Mar05 (lucas bonnie)BEATO INOEL 124 3.00    
6  LAKE NAKURU Sep07 Aug30 Jul26 Jul05 Jun09 (ferreira fernando)CORA D 124 6.00    
7  C C'S WARRIOR Aug30 Aug08 Jul13 Jun16 Jun02 (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 122 3.00 40% 1.50    
8  DEVOTED KITTEN Aug24 Aug02 Jul07 Jun22 Jun14 (moreno-barb)CORUJO LEONARDO 122 6.00 12% 7.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.