Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Mahoning Valley
Thursday - November 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

MVR-1   WIN (1/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/2)-(1/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/2)-(1/3/2)-(1/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/2)-(3/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/2)-(3/1/2)-(2/4/9/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-2   WIN (3/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/2)-(2/4/9/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2)-(2/4/9/6)-(5/4/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-3   WIN (2/4/9/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/9/6)-(2/4/9/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/9/6)-(2/4/9/6)-(2/4/9/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/4/9/6)-(5/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/9/6)-(5/4/8)-(4/3/5/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-4   WIN (5/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/8)-(5/4/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/8)-(5/4/8)-(5/4/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/8)-(4/3/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/8)-(4/3/5/2)-(3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
MVR-5   WIN (4/3/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/5/2)-(4/3/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/5/2)-(4/3/5/2)-(4/3/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/5/2)-(3/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5/2)-(3/6)-(3/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
MVR-6   WIN (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/6)-(3/6/4) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/6)-(3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (3/6)-(3/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/6)-(3/7/2)-(5/3/10/11/4) 30 $0.50 $15.00 
MVR-7   WIN (3/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/2)-(3/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/2)-(3/7/2)-(3/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/2)-(5/3/10/11/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
MVR-8   WIN (5/3/10/11/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/3/10/11/4)-(5/3/10/11/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/3/10/11/4)-(5/3/10/11/4)-(5/3/10/11/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
MVR-1   11/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHAKE THE FROST Nov15         (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 122 3.00 33% 2.00    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of DORIS' DIAMOND by MONARCHOS)
C V DYNAMIC Nov15 Oct28       (salcedo ramon)REYES FRANK 122 5.00 22% 3.60    
  (by DYNAMIC RACER out of VICTORY POOL by VICTORY GALLOP)
JUSTA LITTLE MOORE Nov15 Oct28 Sep25 Sep05 Aug17 (ruberto louis)CEDILLO MAURO 122 1.80 23% 3.30    
  (by DRILL out of BUCKLER by CONCERTO)
REIGNING DREAM Nov15 Oct28 Oct12     (shannon jenni)TUNON JORDANO 122 10.00    
  (by DREAMLINER out of REIGNING GAL by FIRST DUDE)
VERNON'S BEST Jun30 Jun16       (andrade hugo)HALDAR J 122 8.00    
  (by DYNAMIC RACER out of MIDNIGHT BEAUTY by PROSPECTOR'S BID)
TAHLEQUAH JOE Nov15 Oct28 Sep25 Sep05 Jul26 (radosevich jake )AVILES YAN 122 15.00    
  (by GLOBAL POWER out of BE MIND PHIL by PHILANTHROPIST)
RIVERS OF DENIRO Nov15 Oct28 Oct11 Sep25 Sep05 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 122 4.00    
  (by RIVERS RUN DEEP out of DENIRO'S SAINT by SAINTS N' SINNERS)
 
MVR-2   11/30/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SAVESOMEFORME Nov15 Sep28 Sep13 Jul24 Jul04 (bates l)BRACHO A 124 6.00 10% 8.60    
STATE OF GRACE Nov08 Oct25 Sep22 Sep07 Jul27 (cline robert)ROSARIO L 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SORORITY SISTER Nov09 Oct10 Sep07 Aug28 Aug02 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 124 1.80 58% 0.70    
WAR MOON Nov08 Oct23 Sep26 Aug29 Mar29 (langley joshu)CEDILLO MAURO 124 8.00    
BIRDIE'S CHANTZ Nov08 Oct23 Oct03 Sep11 Aug22 (yoder d)RIVERA R 124 2.50    
SPUN PRETTY Sep01 Aug03 Jul19 Jun05 Dec22 (calderon iva)HALDAR J 124 3.00    
 
MVR-3   11/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($17.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAKING ME CRAZY Nov13 Nov01 Oct21 Sep28 Sep13 (mahan josep)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 6.00    
WOODLAND WALK Nov01 Oct10 Sep26 Aug17 Jul10 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 126 1.60 66% 0.50    
UNCLE EARL Oct30 Oct05 Aug09 Jul12 Jun15 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 4.00    
AMIGO'S AFFAIR Oct21 Sep12 Sep03 Jun21 Jun01 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 124 3.50 8% 12.00    
ROCK ON KITTEN Nov06 Oct10 Sep10 Aug16 Aug01 (johnson gary)TAPARA BRANDON 124 15.00    
VENETIAN DREAM Nov20 Nov13 Oct31 Oct23 Oct06 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 126 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KOSCIUSZKO Oct31 Oct21 Sep26 Sep14 Aug30 (brown glenroy)REYES FRANK 124 20.00    
LORD OF LEGENDS Nov08 Oct18 Oct02 Sep19 Aug22 (buhrow d)DIAZ I 124 20.00    
MALIBU CLASSIC Nov13 Oct21 Sep27 Sep06 Aug10 (tre)GIRON ALEJANDRO 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
MVR-4   11/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 ALL PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LUCKY VICTOR Nov15 Oct28       (uri)GIRON ALEJANDRO 122 10.00    
  (by ITSMYLUCKYDAY out of JADE by GILDED TIME)
ONE STEP ASIDE Nov15 Oct28 Oct11 Sep25 Sep05 (dacosta jason)BOWEN ROCCO 122 8.00    
  (by ONE SIDED out of SASSY SHORE BREEZE by SHORE BREEZE)
LIVING THE DREAM Nov15 Oct28 Oct11     (shannon jenni)TUNON JORDANO 122 6.00    
  (by DREAMLINER out of PYRITE BLUE MAGNA by MAGNA GRADUATE)
OLLIE'S FOLLY         (rone mike)RIVERA R 122 4.00 19% 4.20    
  (by DRILL out of SWEET JODY by VALUE PLUS)
HEZA PISTOL Nov15         (greenhill jeff)AVILES YAN 122 3.00 33% 2.10    
  (by DANZA out of SHEZA RUNAWAY STAR by PRIDE OF BURKAAN)
SEEKING FREEDOM Nov15 Oct28 Oct11 Sep25 Sep05 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 8.00    
  (by DA BIG HOSS out of SEEKING A SUNRISE by SEEKING A HOME)
SCR  WEEKEND RETREAT         (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 5.00 14% 6.30    
  (by CITY WEEKEND out of AFTERNOON PRAYER by MEADOW PRAYER)
KOZWHAT         (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 122 4.50 14% 6.30    
  (by TENKOZ out of LIL' MISS MERRIE by KING CUGAT)
 
MVR-5   11/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MSHINDI Oct31 Oct16 Oct02 Sep18 Aug31 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 122 10.00    
NAPA DUDE Nov09 Sep20 Aug30 Aug09 Jul25 (casalinova tin)GONZALEZ A 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
LAST COOKIE Nov21 Nov01 Sep30 Aug29 Aug15 (ur)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 3.50 26% 2.80    
QUARANTINO Nov09 Oct06 Sep25 Sep06 Aug21 (skerrett jef)HALDAR J 122 3.00 46% 1.20    
CREATIVE BEAT Nov14         (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
RIVOLI Nov02 Sep21 Aug19 Jun20 May03 (west w)BRACHO A 122 2.00    
MAS ORO Nov15 Oct25 Oct03 Sep19 Aug30 (schuster robin)AVILES YAN 122 20.00    
HITSVILLE Mar21 Feb14 Jan11 Sep21   (fadlovich meg)BARBARAN ERIK 122 6.00    
 
MVR-6   11/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Glacial Princess Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TWISTED JUSTICE Nov14 Sep22 Aug30 Aug12 Jul22 (smith lar)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 118 2.50    
  (by BIONDETTI out of TOUR FOR LOVE by EXPRESS TOUR)
LUCKY STUFF Nov13 Oct28 Sep25 Sep04   (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 116 10.00    
  (by ITSMYLUCKYDAY out of DOUBLE STUFF by DOUBLE HONOR)
TIERNEY Oct10 Sep21 Sep04     (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 118 1.80 61% 0.70    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of MINI MOM by PARENTS' REWARD)
FEELING EASY Oct12 Aug14 Jul24 Jun24   (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 118 6.00    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of OH SO EASY by TAKE THAT STEP)
MAYBETHEONE Oct28 Sep21 Sep04 Aug14 Jul24 (lopez jacinto)CEDILLO MAURO 118 4.00    
  (by ONE SIDED out of MAYBEMAYBENOT by PHILADREAM)
DANZANITEAWAY Nov13 Oct28 Sep22 Aug30   (barker scot)JIMENEZ J 118 5.00 8% 11.40    
  (by DANZA out of HERONETTA by MARCHFIELD)
 
MVR-7   11/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 2 ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COUNTEVERYBLESSING Nov15 Oct28       (vazquez ivan)PAUCAR E 122 10.00    
LUST FOR LIFE Nov15         (rone mike)RIVERA R 122 6.00 15% 5.80    
DIAL DIRECT Nov16 Oct28 Oct12     (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 1.80 39% 1.60    
VILLIAN Nov15 Oct28 Sep22 Aug12 Jul22 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 120 10.00    
ROLL ON BIG O Nov15 Sep22 Sep05 Aug15 Jul26 (rone mik)FERNANDEZ R 120 8.00    
GAPPER Nov15 Oct28 Oct12 Oct05 Sep23 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 120 4.50    
WHO DA BOSS Nov15 Oct31 Oct12 Sep26 Sep06 (go)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 2.50 23% 3.40    
 
MVR-8   11/30/2023 5490ft DIRT RC11 FAST Ruff/Kirchberg Memorial Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OKLAHOMA JOE Nov15 Oct23 Oct12 Sep13 Aug10 (radosevich justi)AVILES YAN 116 10.00    
  (by GLOBAL POWER out of BE MIND PHIL by PHILANTHROPIST)
PRESSLEY RIDGE Nov08 Oct24 Sep14 Aug28   (pappada julie )GONZALEZ A 116 20.00    
  (by ITSTHESAMEOLDSONG out of BABY COLLETTE by PADDY O'PRADO)
RELISH THE RIDE Sep28 Sep13 Aug26 Jun24 May31 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 124 4.00 5% 18.20    
  (by MOBIL out of CRYPTOS' BEST by CRYPTOCLEARANCE)
THAT'S THE WAY Nov06 Oct09 Jun07 May23 Mar21 (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CITY WEEKEND out of CAPE FOG by CAPE TOWN)
BIG TRUCK Nov01 Aug26 Aug05 Jun24 Jun02 (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 118 4.50 64% 0.60    
  (by BIRDRUN out of SMALL SECRET by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
FIRSTHAND JUSTICE Nov07 Oct09 Sep28 Aug28 Jul31 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 118 15.00    
  (by TIDAL VOLUME out of FLY GOLD AIR by TACTICAL ADVANTAGE)
CASUAL ATTIRE Nov09 Sep20 Aug26 Aug11 Jul22 (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 122 10.00    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of MISS EMMA MARIA by TIZNOW)
ROMANTIC COWBOY Oct24 Sep28 Aug26 Jun24 May11 (ibarra marco)BARBARAN ERIK 124 5.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of LOVER by LOUIS QUATORZE)
RED HEAD KID Oct30 Oct04 Sep13 Aug26 Aug11 (fernan)BATISTA ALBERTO 120 15.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of COMPLIMENT TREE by FLATTER)
10  DR. ZARNETT Oct11 Sep28 Sep14 Aug26 Aug03 (meyers shane)RIVERA R 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of ENGLATERRA by JOHANNESBURG)
11  FIRST SONG Nov06 Oct24 Sep28 Aug26 Aug03 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ITSTHESAMEOLDSONG out of MINI MOSTEST by ATTICUS)
12  CONTROLLER Nov09 Sep27 Sep13 Aug11 Jul22 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 120 8.00    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of BOURGEOIS by AWESOME AGAIN)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.