Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - June 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (4/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/6)-(4/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/6)-(4/2/6)-(4/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/6)-(2/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/2/6)-(2/1/4)-(3/2/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-2   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/4)-(3/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4)-(3/2/1)-(5/7/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/1)-(5/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1)-(5/7/1)-(5/4/6/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/1)-(5/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/1)-(5/7/1)-(5/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/1)-(5/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/7/1)-(5/4/6/2)-(1/3/8/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-5   WIN (5/4/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/6/2)-(1/3/8/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6/2)-(1/3/8/2)-(2/5) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
ELP-6   WIN (1/3/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/8/2)-(1/3/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/8/2)-(1/3/8/2)-(1/3/8/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/8/2)-(2/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/3/8/2)-(2/5)-(3/9/8/4) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
ELP-7   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/5)-(3/9/8/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/5)-(3/9/8/4)-(6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ELP-8   WIN (3/9/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/9/8/4)-(3/9/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/9/8/4)-(3/9/8/4)-(3/9/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/9/8/4)-(6/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
ELP-9   WIN (6/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/7)-(6/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   06/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEST OF GREELEY May19 Apr22 Mar17 Feb04 May03 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
2  LEGAL DEAL May26 May04 Apr22 Mar04 Jan14 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 15% 5.70    
3  NOBLE JON Jun01 Apr01 Feb17 Feb11   (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50    
4  HERD IMMUNITY May03 Mar24 Mar03 Jan15 Dec16 (sharp joe)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.50 44% 1.30    
5  FIRERY TALE Jun04 May14 Apr08 Mar26 Mar04 (estvanko richard)MOJICA O 118 12.00    
6  CRAZY LEGS HIRSCH May14 Apr13 Mar18 Feb04 Jan16 (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 11% 8.50    
 
ELP-2   06/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ON A SPREE Apr29 Mar24 Mar11 Feb09 Jan01 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 28% 2.60    
2  SUGOI Mar25 Mar04 Jan28 Oct21 Sep29 (wong jonathan)ROCCO S 118 3.50 32% 2.20    
SCR  W W CRAZY Mar23 Nov27 Nov02 Sep24 Aug30 (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00    
4  SUMMER SPLASH Apr20 Feb21 Jan28 Jan05 Nov23 (mckeever an)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.00 17% 5.00    
5  BEAVER HAT May22 Apr16 Mar30 Mar09 Feb11 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
6  TAPAGE May13 Mar04 Jan25 Dec27 Dec03 (sharp joe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 8.00    
 
ELP-3   06/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOG RED May28 Apr26 Feb03 Dec28 Nov23 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 126 5.00 11% 8.10    
2  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE Jun01 May19 Mar31 Mar10 Jan15 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 126 2.50 23% 3.40    
3  WHAT'S UP DOC Jun04 Jul16 Jun17     (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 126 2.00 42% 1.40    
SCR  CAPTAIN JACK Apr12 Mar19 Feb04     (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 111 4.50    
5  JEWELSTOWN May04 Apr08 Mar04 Jan28   (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
6  BOLD LOOKER May13 Apr19 Mar10 Feb17 Jan11 (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 124 3.50    
 
ELP-4   06/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAMARA'S WAY May26 Jan01 Dec17 Nov10 Oct26 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 9% 10.40    
2  ZIPPIN PIPPIN May12 Apr15 Mar26 Mar05 Feb04 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00    
SCR  THERESASILVERLININ May05         (wong jonathan)NAVAS YOEL 111 4.00    
SCR  DANDELION Apr29 Mar16 Feb18 Sep23 Aug10 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.00    
5  PROMISEMEPARADISE May02 Mar02       (baker jame)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 40% 1.50    
6  CEE MINUS Apr28 Mar26 Feb17 Jan27 Dec29 (stuart sh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
7  NEWYEARSPRESENT Jun02 May05 Apr01 Mar15 Feb24 (o'connor robe)GARCIA MARTIN 124 5.00 24% 3.20    
8  MAMBA OUT May02         (hill f)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
 
ELP-5   06/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARBONITE May29 Jan14 Dec16 Nov24 Nov09 (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 6.00    
2  LAZARUS Jun03 May11 Apr21 Mar10   (cundiff )RODRIGUEZ A 113 8.00 10% 9.30    
3  WESTERN COMMAND May20 Mar16 Feb02 Nov17 Sep29 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
4  DON'T WAIT UP Jun01 May08 Apr12 Jul01 May15 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 123 3.00 12% 7.30    
5  MAC DADDY TOO May19 Apr16 Feb18 Jan08 Oct22 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.00 47% 1.10    
6  HOLIDAY HOUSE May29 May15 Apr18 Mar18 Feb10 (estvanko richard)MOJICA O 123 4.00 10% 8.60    
7  SAIL AT SUNRISE May29 Apr19 Nov17 Oct07 Aug19 (jazdzewski jon)BEJARANO R 123 10.00    
 
ELP-6   06/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCARLET STRIPE May04 Dec29 Nov27 Oct28 Oct01 (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 38% 1.60    
2  MY MY MUNNY May13 Apr27 Mar30 Mar09 Feb08 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  HOME PORT May04         (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 125 4.50 18% 4.50    
4  HARTFUL HOPE May22 Apr23 Mar31 Mar02   (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
SCR  DEVINE CHARGER May20 Sep09 Jul31 Jul09 May14 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 123 5.00    
6  LITTLE MOMBO Jun12 May26 Apr07 Feb26 Jan23 (bauer philip)GEROUX FLORENT 123 4.50    
7  UNSUNG MELODY May05 Mar11 Feb11 Jan21   (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00    
8  CANCEL THIS May25 Nov27 Nov06 Oct15 Sep23 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 123 3.50 18% 4.70    
 
ELP-7   06/18/2023 3630ft DIRT RC11 FAST Mighty Beau Purse ($225K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CAROTARI May06 Mar18 Feb11 Dec24 Sep24 (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
  (by ARTIE SCHILLER out of SOOTHER by RAHY)
2  YES I AM FREE Apr29 Mar18 Feb11 Jan19 Jul03 (cazares laura)JARAMILLO E 126 10.00 46% 1.20    
  (by UNCAPTURED out of YES IT'S VALID by YES IT'S TRUE)
SCR  BAD BEAT BRIAN May26 May06 Apr08 Mar11 Jan18 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 3.50    
  (by JACK MILTON out of ULTIMATE CLASS by DURING)
SCR  GEAR JOCKEY Nov25 Oct08 Jun11 May06 Apr09 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of SWITCHING GEARS by TAPIT)
5  NECKER ISLAND Apr15 Apr01 Mar18 Feb17 Oct07 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00 31% 2.20    
  (by HARD SPUN out of JENNY'S ROCKET by MR. GREELEY)
6  CHARCOAL May23 May02 Feb17 Oct28 Oct08 (wisner tracey)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 12.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of ROSE OF ARAN by VAN NISTELROOY)
SCR  JUST MIGHT May26 May06 Apr22 Mar18 Aug16 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00    
  (by JUSTIN PHILLIP out of DYNAMITE BABE by DYNAMEAUX)
SCR  NOBALS May06 Apr22 Mar23 Aug13 Jul17 (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 126 2.50    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of PEARLY BLUE by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  SMOKIN' JAY May26 Apr22 Mar04 Aug02 Jul18 (danner kel)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HOW NICE by TALINUM)
SCR  SURVEILLANCE May26 May04 Apr15 Feb18 Jan21 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 12.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of MAJORELLE by MIZZEN MAST)
SCR  HE'SMYHONEYBADGER May14 Mar18 Feb11 Jan06 Nov23 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of MAJESTIC MISS by CASTLE HOWARD)
 
ELP-8   06/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WILD THINKER May21 Apr16 Mar02     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of INVESTED PROSPECT by ABRAAJ)
2  TEXAS TOAST         (bicknell whitn)HUGHES CARLY 124 20.00    
  (by TEXAS RED out of CREDENTIAL by VALID APPEAL)
3  LE BAR Apr08         (pletcher a)JARAMILLO E 118 3.50 51% 0.90    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of I THINK SO by PROUD CITIZEN)
4  TOP SECRET May21 Nov09       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
5  KING ME Sep30         (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of EVEN SONG by STREET CRY (IRE))
6  ALOHA MAKUAKANE         (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 124 20.00    
  (by FIRST DUDE out of EXCLUSIVE CHIC by YONAGUSKA)
7  DENIER         (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00    
  (by CUSTOM FOR CARLOS out of DIXIE JEWEL by BROKEN VOW)
8  BANDON         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 9% 10.50    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SANSIBAR JEWEL by STREET CRY (IRE))
9  BAD BOY FRANK Apr28 Mar25       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 6.00 15% 5.70    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SAVED BY THE SWELL by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  MO FIGHT         (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CAT FIGHT by FIT TO FIGHT)
 
ELP-9   06/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BOLIVIE (IRE) May12 Mar25       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
SCR  HAY STACK May18 Apr07 Jan22 Nov19 Sep23 (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50    
SCR  BLING May17 Nov04 Oct07 Aug20 Jul22 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 3.00    
SCR  MILLION DOLLAR CAT May24         (arnold ge)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
SCR  MALAWNIA May12 Jan12 Dec03 Sep17 Aug13 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 15.00    
6  SWEETS MAKER May18 Mar23 Feb25 Feb11 Dec15 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00 50% 1.00    
7  LA TOURISTA May28 May18 Apr22 Apr13 Mar17 (vasquez germa)MORALES EDGAR 124 30.00 6% 15.30    
8  TRANSPARENCY May21 Mar08 Feb09     (walden wil)CORRALES GERARDO 124 20.00    
SCR  CLEVER JOKE May12 Mar09 Dec03 Aug28   (catalano way)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
10  ARDEN'S ASSAULT Apr27 Mar18       (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.