Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Sunday - April 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
AQU-2   WIN NO BET 0 $2.00 $0.00 
    EXA NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
AQU-3   WIN (13/12) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (13/12)-(13/12) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (13/12)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (13/12)-(4/6/1)-(10/11/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-4   WIN (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/1)-(4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/1)-(10/11/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1)-(10/11/6)-(1/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-5   WIN (10/11/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/11/6)-(10/11/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (10/11/6)-(10/11/6)-(10/11/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (10/11/6)-(1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (10/11/6)-(1/6)-(6/1/7) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-6   WIN (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/6)-(6/9/8) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/6)-(6/9/8)-(6/9/8) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/6)-(6/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/6)-(6/1/7)-(7/2/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-7   WIN (6/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/7)-(6/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/7)-(6/1/7)-(6/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/7)-(7/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/7)-(7/2/4)-(1/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-8   WIN (7/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/4)-(7/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2/4)-(7/2/4)-(7/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/2/4)-(1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
AQU-9   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3)-(1/3/2/8)-(1/3/2/8) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   04/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RISK FREE Apr15 Mar17 Feb17 Jan29 Jan07 (dela)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 2.50 14% 6.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of KEEP CROSSING by ISTAN)
2  LAST GLIMMER         (mcgaughey clau)ORTIZ L 118 4.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of GLOAMING by MAJESTIC LIGHT)
3  MS. SOLVEIG Mar12 Aug25 Jul27     (antonacci ph)CASTELLANO J 125 3.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of THEORY OF CHANGE by ARCHARCHARCH)
SCR  PUNKIN Mar10         (klesaris robe)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00 ★    
  (by KLIMT out of MISS ANNA MARIE by POSSE)
5  WILDHAWK Mar26 Feb05       (albertrani thom)CARMOUCHE K 118 2.00 60% 0.70    
  (by HELMET (AUS) out of WADIA by CAMPANOLOGIST)
 
AQU-2   04/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($41K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SPETTRO Dec09 Nov05 Oct06 Aug25 Jul16 (baker charlton)ROSARIO JOEL 120 3.50 ★    
SCR  RUN SMITTY RUN Feb25 Oct08 May29 Apr10 Mar19 (barker edwa)MARTINEZ R 122 15.00    
3  BASIS RISK Apr15 Feb25 Feb05 Dec09 Nov13 (coffey m)DAVIS A 120 30.00    
4  UPPER LEVEL Mar10 Feb11 Jan14 Dec16 Oct20 (lynch na)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 5.00 ★    
SCR  HEYMACKIT'SJACK Mar17 Feb22 Jan21 Sep25 Aug27 (kimmel c)ORTIZ L 120 1.60 69% 0.40    
SCR  MOON HUNTER Dec17 Nov12 Oct20 Sep25 Sep03 (hemingway m)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 15.00    
SCR  IGNITED Jun11 May14       (trombetta )SANCHEZ J 120 6.00 5% 17.70    
8  RAW COURAGE Apr02 Mar10 Feb09 Jan29 Dec31 (toscano john )OLVER MADISON 113 50.00    
SCR  VOLKERT Mar10 Feb05 Jun14 May21 Apr23 (hennig ma)VARGAS A 120 4.50    
10  CLASH A. J. Apr22 Apr01 Mar24 Mar17 Feb25 (jones eduardo)OLVER MADISON 115 8.00    
11  EIGHT AND SAND Apr23 Mar10 Feb17 Dec11 Nov13 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 122 2.00 ★    
 
AQU-3   04/30/2023 5940ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KAYLEIGH'S PRIDE Mar19 Feb16 Nov25 Oct23   (hennig mark)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 10.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT (FR) out of NAPLES MIST by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  FINANCIAL ADVICE (FR) Feb11         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 2.50 25% 2.90    
  (by UNKNOWN out of MARACENA by MARJU (IRE))
SCR  TREASURED GEM Mar26 Oct22 Sep18 Aug21 Jul24 (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of MEI LING by EMPIRE MAKER)
4  TOOSHAY Mar17         (trites)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 30.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE by AWESOME AGAIN)
SCR  PRET A TOUCHER Mar05         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 118 5.00 ★    
  (by WAR FRONT out of TOCCO D'AMORE by RAVEN'S PASS)
SCR  KEEP IT SEXY Oct22 Sep23       (morley thomas)CARMOUCHE K 118 30.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of OELECTRA by GULCH)
SCR  VOLATILITY Mar11 Feb04 Jan04 Nov19   (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 12.00 ★    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of TAPITAL GAINS by TAPIT)
SCR  MEOW MEOW HISS Apr01         (jerkens a)CANCEL ERIC 118 10.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of DEANAALLEN'SKITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  PREREQUISITE Apr01         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50    
  (by UPSTART out of ETSU by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  RIVER OAKS Feb05 Oct01       (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 15.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of NOT IN JEST by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  LIBRETTO (IRE) Mar04 Nov20 Sep18 Aug14 Jul20 (abreu jorge )CASTELLANO J 126 6.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of LOPERA by MONSUN (GER))
12  OCEAN GATEWAY Mar26 Feb12       (clement chri)CASTELLANO J 118 3.00 23% 3.40    
  (by TONALIST out of HANTALOOP by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
13  GIFTED Mar31 Mar04 Feb05 Nov25 Aug07 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 1.40 29% 2.50    
  (by TAPIT out of WITH HONORS by WAR FRONT)
 
AQU-4   04/30/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MRS BELL Apr16 Mar24 Mar03 Feb17 Jan27 (lucas bonnie)OLVER MADISON 118 6.00 12% 7.10    
SCR  AKIVA         (chichakly amir)RICHARDS G 118 15.00 10% 8.60    
3  WINE GODDESS Apr14 Mar24 Feb17 Feb02 Jan20 (lucas bonni)MCCARTHY TREVOR 125 6.00    
4  IRISH JACKSON         (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 125 2.00 35% 1.80    
5  LA CHANCE Apr16 Mar12 Feb18 Oct23 Sep23 (rome)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 5.00    
6  PRINCESS SONYA Mar12 Dec29 Nov17     (baker charlton)ROSARIO JOEL 125 1.80 17% 4.90    
7  MY GORGEOUS Mar24 Mar03 Feb18 Jan27 Jan12 (rey)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
 
AQU-5   04/30/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SPACE LAUNCH Nov19 Sep16 Jul01 May29   (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 118 3.50 9% 10.50    
2  ROYAL TRYST Mar25 Mar04 Feb25 Feb11 Jan14 (aren)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 30.00    
SCR  CHULAINN Nov19 Oct22 Jun19 May15   (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 120 6.00    
SCR  NEVER EXPLAIN Mar01 Jan18 Jan01 Oct19 Sep23 (mcgaughey clau)ORTIZ L 123 2.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  DAUNT Nov26 Oct21 Sep17 Aug25 Aug13 (ribaudo robe)CASTELLANO J 120 4.50    
6  CALL ME HARRY Mar10 Feb10 Nov19 Oct27 Oct13 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CLEAR VISION Sep03 Aug04 Jul15 May21 Mar05 (falcone robert )CARMOUCHE K 118 8.00    
8  TWENTY FOUR MAMBA Mar24 Dec11 Oct09 Jul31 May29 (atras rob)RIDER TBA 118 10.00    
9  CELESTIAL MOON Apr06 Mar11 Dec15 Nov10 Oct15 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 123 2.00    
10  MAJORITY PARTNER Apr14 Mar19 Mar11 Feb17 Sep23 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 1.00 38% 1.60    
11  KINETIC SKY Mar04 Feb02 Jan01 Nov06 Oct14 (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 120 4.50 21% 3.80    
 
AQU-6   04/30/2023 5940ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($82K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1X  SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN Apr21 Mar26 Feb24 Jan12 Dec16 (rodriguez ru)CASTELLANO J 120 0.60 59% 0.70    
SCR  BEAUTE CACHEE (FR)         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 122 0.60    
SCR  CHILI FLAG (FR) Feb25         (brown c)ORTIZ L 120 0.60 ★    
SCR  FRIVOLE (FR)         (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.50    
SCR  EXCEPT TEMPTATION Mar11 Oct20 Sep22 Sep02 Aug05 (albertrani tho)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 15.00 ★    
SCR  NOW YUS CANT LEAVE Mar15 May15 Mar12 Feb12 Jan15 (rubley kelly)CARMOUCHE K 120 12.00    
SCR  EVER SUMMER Nov18 Oct23 Sep30 Aug24   (clement chr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 8.00    
6  LAY THE GROUNDWORK Mar23 Feb26 Jan25 Dec26 Sep10 (hennig mark)CASTELLANO J 122 8.00 16% 5.40    
SCR  DESERT DALLIANCE Apr13 Mar12 Feb13 Dec09 Nov13 (breen j)RIDER TBA 120 3.00    
8  KNOW IT ALL AUDREY Apr21 Mar12 Feb12 Jan19 Dec17 (barrera oscar )ORTIZ L 122 1.60 ★    
9  TO A T Apr22 Mar22 Feb17 Jan19 Dec09 (noda orlando)RIDER TBA 120 6.00 ★    
 
AQU-7   04/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCILLY CAY Mar25 Mar05 Feb17 Feb10 Jan07 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 3.50 24% 3.10    
2  BREW PUB Mar11 Feb10 Jan21 Jan07 Dec10 (rodriguez r)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 6.00    
4  THRILL OF IT Mar24 Jul28 May30 Mar27 Feb24 (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 2.50    
5  FIRST DEPUTY Apr07 Mar12 Feb11 Jan05 Dec16 (shiv)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 10.00    
6  UNIQUE UNIONS Nov17 Sep23 Jul31 Jul08 Jun11 (duggan david )FRANCO MANUEL 118 1.40 30% 2.30    
7  FOOLISH GHOST Apr01 Mar12 Feb11 Jan07 Nov17 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 111 8.00 17% 4.80    
SCR  BATTLE STATION Apr27 Nov18 Oct27 Sep22 Aug27 ( )TBA null      
 
AQU-8   04/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Affirmed Success Purse ($100K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LISTENTOYOURHEART Apr07 Feb17 Jan21 Aug26 Jul10 (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 118 4.00 16% 5.10    
  (by AFLEET ALEX out of JE T'AIME by GOLD TOKEN)
2  SHERIFF BIANCO Apr23 Mar30 Feb18 Feb05 Dec30 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 25% 3.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of SUMMER RULES by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
3  AMUNDSON Mar05 Jan22 Jan01 Dec09 Nov12 (atras rob)ORTIZ JR 124 4.50    
  (by CURLIN out of BRIDGEHAMPTON by BERNARDINI)
4  MY BOY TATE Jan08 Dec04 Oct30 Oct10 Aug12 (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 10.00 9% 9.80    
  (by BOYS AT TOSCONOVA out of BACKSLASH by SHARP HUMOR)
5  SCOCCIATORE Mar30 Feb10 Apr07 Mar19 Feb12 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 118 15.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of OUR MISS JONES by ALPHABET SOUP)
6  LOBSTA Feb20 Jan22 May22 Apr29 Mar20 (sciacca gary)CASTELLANO J 118 12.00    
  (by EMCEE out of SALTY LITTLE SIS by CHIEF SEATTLE)
7  TODAY'S FLAVOR Apr08 Feb18 Jan07 Dec11 Nov27 (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.60 27% 2.70    
  (by LAOBAN out of EVANGELICAL by DEVIL'S BAG)
 
AQU-9   04/30/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOLO CONTESTO Apr15 Feb19 Jan21 Jan13 Dec30 (jacobson dav)CASTELLANO J 126 2.00 51% 0.90    
2  MACH ONE Apr16 Jan26 Dec29 Sep16 Aug21 (persaud )GOMEZ ANTONIO 126 8.00 ★    
3  MAJESTIC TIGER Apr01 Mar10 Jan26 Jan12 Dec10 (rodriguez gus)FRANCO MANUEL 126 3.00 25% 3.00    
4  SON OF AN EX Mar18 Mar10 Feb18 Feb12 Jan26 (chin pet)DAVIS A 124 15.00    
5  ALWAYS CHARMING Apr01 Jun16 May21 Feb21 Jan27 (klesaris ro)MCCARTHY TREVOR 126 4.50    
6  BIG VENEZUELA Apr16 Mar26 Feb18 Feb02 Jan20 (tessore bruno)ADORNO ABNER 124 8.00    
7  SKYLANDER Apr13 Jan28 Jan07 Dec03 Oct22 (trites)MARAGH RAMSAY 126 12.00    
8  INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER Apr02 Mar11 Jan14 Dec10 Nov27 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 6.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.