Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 07, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/2)-(6/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/2)-(6/3/2)-(6/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/2)-(7/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/3/2)-(7/4/2)-(1/3/8/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/2)-(7/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/2)-(7/4/2)-(7/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/2)-(1/3/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/2)-(1/3/8/5)-(8/11/3/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/3/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/8/5)-(1/3/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/8/5)-(1/3/8/5)-(1/3/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/8/5)-(8/11/3/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/3/8/5)-(8/11/3/2)-(4/2/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (8/11/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/11/3/2)-(8/11/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/11/3/2)-(8/11/3/2)-(8/11/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/11/3/2)-(4/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/11/3/2)-(4/2/6)-(3/6/1/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/6)-(4/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/6)-(4/2/6)-(4/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/6)-(3/6/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/6)-(3/6/1/7)-(7/1/9/5/10) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/6/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/1/7)-(3/6/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/1/7)-(3/6/1/7)-(3/6/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/1/7)-(7/1/9/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/6/1/7)-(7/1/9/5/10)-(3/1/6/8/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (7/1/9/5/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/1/9/5/10)-(7/1/9/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/1/9/5/10)-(7/1/9/5/10)-(7/1/9/5/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/1/9/5/10)-(3/1/6/8/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (7/1/9/5/10)-(3/1/6/8/2)-(10/6/3) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/1/6/8/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/1/6/8/2)-(3/1/6/8/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/1/6/8/2)-(3/1/6/8/2)-(3/1/6/8/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/1/6/8/2)-(10/6/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (10/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/6/3)-(10/1/6/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/6/3)-(10/1/6/7/3)-(10/1/6/7/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/07/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ON MY HONOR Sep22 Aug03 Jun16 Mar16 Feb24 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50    
2  CAPER'S HOOLEY Sep21 Mar13 Jun17     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  BEBEDOURO Sep22 Aug17 Jul20 Jun16 May11 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 5% 18.20    
SCR  EDIFIED Sep14 Aug23 Jul27 Jun19 Oct14 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.00    
5  SWEET AS SIN Oct14 Sep23 Aug31 Aug06 Jul16 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 4.50    
6  RUN JALEN RUN Jul04 Jun12 Apr19 Mar30 Feb24 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 1.80 64% 0.60    
 
CD-2   11/07/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDWAY VOW Sep13 Jul27 Jul05 May19 Mar28 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 3.50    
2  TIZ SALTY Oct17 Sep19 Aug26 Jul27 Jun26 (thompson )HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  AMERICAN SPLENDOR Oct17 Sep13 Aug05 Jul22 Jul07 (cambray andres)CHUAN MARTIN 121 20.00    
4  ANOINTED OF GOD Aug05 Jul25 Jun06 May27 Apr25 (douaihy mic)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 2.50 11% 8.10    
5  OUR PRAYER Oct17 Sep13 Apr19 Mar29 Feb10 (radosevich)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00    
6  TERRITORIALITY Oct17 May02 Mar30 Mar16   (gowan willia)MONCADA IRVING 117 12.00    
7  NO SHOW Sep19 Jul26 May31 Apr21 Mar29 (danner kelse)TORRES A 121 1.80 51% 1.00    
 
CD-3   11/07/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELUSIVE TARGET Oct12 Sep05 Aug12 Jul14 Jun19 (maker michael )ORTIZ L 121 3.50 31% 2.30    
2  THUNDERIAN Sep25 Jul31 Jul04 May26 Apr26 (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.50    
3  QUALITY CHIC Oct19 Aug11 Jul11 May27 May03 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 4.00 21% 3.90    
SCR  BACKGROUND Oct13 Sep21 Aug18 Jun19 May18 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 10.00    
5  EXPENSIVE CUT Sep15 Aug12 Jun29 May31 Feb09 (morse rand)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  COPPERMASTER Oct11 Aug17 Jul19 Jun22 Apr14 (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
7  GASOLINE Sep01 Jul17 Jun12 May11 Mar23 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 2.50    
8  TRIDENT HIT Sep27 Aug18 Apr26 Mar30 Jan26 (moquett r)TORRES A 121 5.00 18% 4.50    
 
CD-4   11/07/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LADY RILEY Sep19 Aug17 Jul21     (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 119 15.00    
2  SHOW ME THE LIGHT Sep26 Aug31 Aug01 Jul09   (wells duane)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
3  HONEYBEEBOBBIE Oct24 Oct07 Aug25 Jul21   (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  KUKU Oct20 Oct11 Sep08 Aug29 Aug22 (chapman jame)MONCADA IRVING 112 12.00    
5  MY BOSSY LADY Oct19         (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 5.00    
6  JAILHOUSE RELIGION Oct06         (tomlinson michae)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
7  MERCY OTIS Oct07 Sep19 Aug25 Jul21 Jun22 (barret)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 119 30.00    
8  STREAKING Sep21 Aug17 Jul21 Jun25 Jun04 (ennis john)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 3.00 42% 1.40    
SCR  HIGH SUMMER Sep24 Sep08 Jul31     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 2.50    
SCR  MADAME MARKIEVICZ Oct07 Sep21       (desormeau)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00    
11  GLORIOUS MUSINGS         (holden darrag)CANUTO THIAGO 119 20.00 33% 2.10    
 
CD-5   11/07/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WADSWORTH Sep02 Aug05 Jul01 May17 Mar25 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 1.40    
2  MR. WIRELESS Sep25 Aug11 Jul06 May04 Mar14 (calhoun william)VAZQUEZ A 121 3.50 27% 2.70    
3  WARRIOR JOHNY Sep28 Aug23 Aug03 Jul11 Jun12 (bauer philip)TORRES A 121 6.00    
4  CHASING THE CROWN Oct10 Aug29 Jun29 Jun01 May09 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.50 31% 2.20    
SCR  BIG DREAMING Aug03 Jul06 Mar16 Feb17 Jan11 (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00    
6  HARLAN ESTATE Oct10 Aug29 Jul20 May02 Mar23 (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  SEIZE THE NIGHT Mar23 Jan27 Dec16 Nov05 Sep30 (milligan )TORRES A 121 20.00    
SCR  FROSTED DEPARTURE Sep25 Aug23 Jul28 Jun01 May05 (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 121 3.50    
SCR  BLUE DEVIL Dec30 Nov24 Sep30 Aug18 Jul14 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 4.50    
 
CD-6   11/07/2024 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAGITTARIUS Sep26 Jul29 Jun28 May18 Apr13 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 6.00 15% 5.80    
2  DEL RAYO Oct08 Sep17       (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
3  ROUSSETTE Sep17 Aug24 Aug05 Jul06 Jun28 (simms j)TORRES A 118 4.00 34% 1.90    
4  BRILLIANT MAN Sep05 Aug18 May31 Apr20 Mar28 (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 3.50    
5  MO RHODES Sep26 Aug24 Jul28 Jun29 May31 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50    
6  COPPER MISSILE Oct25 Sep01 Jul06 Jun02 Apr26 (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 3.00 15% 5.70    
7  SOOEY STRONG Oct16 Sep18 Aug21 Aug06   (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   11/07/2024 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUSTIN CRUISE May09         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.00 16% 5.30    
2  SHAN Oct03 Sep11 Aug17 Jul29   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 6.00    
3  EL DANDI Oct20 Sep18 Sep06 Jul17 Jun26 (acevedo is)CORRALES GERARDO 120 20.00    
4  MENDELLO Aug26 Aug07 Jul22 Jun22 Jun05 (demeritte l)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00    
5  ACE IT Oct20 Oct05 Sep11 Aug30 Aug10 (chapman jame)TORRES A 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  THRILLA Oct19 Sep07 Aug16 Jul18   (desormeaux )CONCEPCION AXEL 120 8.00    
7  EIGHTY WEST Oct05 Aug08 Jun23     (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 45% 1.20    
8  JACKSON'S ROAR Oct05 Aug29 Aug03     (hiles a)LANERIE J 120 6.00    
9  ONE TRUE SHANCE Oct05         (kenneally eddi)ORTIZ L 120 3.50 12% 7.10    
10  CHARBONNAY Oct22 Aug11 Jun17 May24   (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-8   11/07/2024 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POPPY THE PRINCESS Oct11 Aug17       (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 120 6.00 28% 2.60    
2  MISS LONELLE Oct04 Sep07 Aug12     (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  SWEET TREASURE Aug17         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.00 31% 2.20    
4  FINE FINISH Oct11 May26       (calhoun willia)ORTIZ L 120 12.00    
5  SLOW NO MO Sep24         (corrigan jim)MACHADO LUAN 120 30.00    
6  ZEALOUS MOON Oct06 Sep13       (mott riley)TORRES A 122 6.00 15% 5.70    
7  SASHAY AWAY Oct04 Sep08 Jul21     (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50    
8  INDIGO STUNNER Sep26 Aug31       (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  GO TOWN Oct11 Sep14 Aug31 Jul30 Jun24 (ennis john)MONCADA IRVING 115 10.00    
SCR  TERRA TOWN Oct11 Jul14       (kubinova eliska)BEJARANO R 120 30.00    
11  COTILLARD Oct11 Sep08 May22 Apr26   (seglin e)RIQUELME J 120 15.00    
12  BONNE FILLE Oct18 Sep08 Jul11 Jun21   (lovell michell)ASHTON GAVIN 120 30.00    
SCR  SWAN HOUSE Sep28 Sep06 Jul30     (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
 
CD-9   11/07/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONET'S MAGIC Oct09 Sep14 Aug12     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 ★    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of RONTOS LILY by BIG DRAMA)
SCR  OH MONACO         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by CURLIN out of BYRAMA by BYRON)
3  HASTEN Oct17 Sep21 Aug17     (simms mark )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ON MY TOES by MORE THAN READY)
4  AMBRIDGE Oct11         (forster t)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SCREWGIE by SMART STRIKE)
5  CORNHUSKERCHRIS Oct06         (pessin neil )LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of TOWN TOUR by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  MISCHIEVOUS TIME Sep28         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of DAISY MASON by ORIENTATE (GB))
7  CRISIS MANAGER Sep28         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 ★    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of WILBURNMONEY by WILBURN)
8  TAVERN TIME Oct06         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
  (by ALTERNATION out of ROOM FOR APTITUDE by APTITUDE)
9  DISCOTHEQUE Oct09 Aug24       (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 119 10.00    
  (by CONNECT out of NEW HOPE ROAD by QUALITY ROAD)
10  ADMIRAL DENNIS Sep19         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 119 1.60 72% 0.40    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of GULF COAST by UNION RAGS)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.