Handicappers' Racing Form

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Ellis Park
Sunday - July 28, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (9/2/7/3/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-2   Win (7/1/5/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-3   Win (5/2/3/6/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-4   Win (4/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-5   Win (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-6   Win (3/12/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-7   Win (4/5/10/8/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-8   Win (3/4/10/5/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-9   Win (7/4/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ELP-1   07/28/2024 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LEAD FOOT Jun14 May26 May10 Apr27 Apr04 (gonzalez rein)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 30.00    
HASKELLED Jul20 May25 May14 Apr27 Apr11 (van thomas)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00 9% 10.30    
WASHINGTON'S UNION Jun15 May23 Apr12 Nov04 Oct19 (pino michae)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 4.50 5% 19.00    
TAP THE CANDY Jul05 Sep15 Sep09 Aug20 Aug05 (hancock a)TORRES A 122 10.00    
ONE LAST BID Jul04 Jun02 May12 Mar24 Mar03 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 8.00    
SCR  RIGEL May25 Apr21 Mar06 Feb03 Jan04 (sancal murat)GRAHAM J 122 3.50    
CURLINS INCHARGE May23 May01 Apr10 Mar02 Feb17 (wismer glenn )CONCEPCION AXEL 122 6.00 6% 14.50    
IBN AL ARABI Jul04 Jun10       (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00    
FLASH OF GENIUS Jun14 May01 Mar09 Jun25 May28 (pino michae)TORRES A 122 5.00 51% 1.00    
10  GOLDEN BUCK Jun13 May26 Apr27 Mar28 Nov27 (castanon g)CASTANON L 118 20.00    
11  MR. FAVERSHAM Jul04 Apr14 Mar20 Mar02 Feb15 (cano munoz)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-2   07/28/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:20
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MELLIFLUOUS May24 Apr13 Mar09 Feb02 Jan13 (irion heather)ARRIETA REYNIER 119 3.50 26% 2.90    
CRUSADER CONRAD Jun16 May21       (mcsorley jo)BEALMEAR C 117 30.00    
LATTA Nov11 Oct07       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00    
DU MONDE Jun16 May24 Apr24 Feb23 Jan18 (hill f)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
HARBOUR BRIDGE Dec16 Oct26 Sep28 Jun25 Jun02 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
BERNIN HOT Jul07 Jun12 May10 Apr17 Aug31 (davis chris)TORRES A 119 4.50    
MORUNNING Jul07 Mar08 Feb03     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00 49% 1.10    
SESAME STREEK Jul15 Jun21 May27 Apr21   (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 5.00    
MARK UR WAY         (walsh p)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-3   07/28/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:49
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FLORIS Jul05 Mar29 Feb16 Jan24 Jan03 (duvall e)CASTANON L 118 20.00    
ORESTES Jul05 Jun19 May29 Sep29 Sep08 (hamilton sarah)ELLIOTT JANE 123 4.00 21% 3.90    
BEER WITH ICE Jul04 May24 Apr27 Mar24 Feb22 (cano munoz)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00 14% 6.00    
NACHO CHROME May24 Apr19 Mar29 Feb25 Jan26 (van thomas)MORALES EDGAR 123 4.50    
TOWN BRANCH Jul05 Jun02 May21 Apr15 Mar05 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 123 3.50 25% 3.00    
JUDO Jun27 Feb28 Jan24 Dec29 Dec14 (fosdick steve)ROMAN A 123 10.00 8% 11.10    
NEW BERN Jun29 May25 Apr18 Apr06 Sep14 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 5.00    
BAYOU MAGIC Jun05 Feb09 Dec23 Sep15   (hill f)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00    
REDFIELD May04 Mar23 Jan28 Dec15 Oct14 (hill f)STILLION BROOKE 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  REDHILL Jul04 Jun12 May01 Apr14 Mar13 (pittman )LOPEZ EDUARDO 123 20.00    
 
ELP-4   07/28/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 2:21
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OVER PROOF         (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 4.50    
TARIFF         (eurton pete)TORRES A 119 4.00    
GERALDRAYDAPLEGRAY         (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
THE CHALK Jun30         (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.50 46% 1.20    
ENDRICK         (camejo m)CASTANON L 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
CHASING LIBERTY         (atras rob)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 29% 2.40    
SCR  SILVER FALCON         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
I'M OTTER HERE         (hiles a)TORRES A 119 12.00    
ZAP D'ETAT         (house ga)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 30.00    
10  SKYNET         (barrett roddina )ELLIOTT JANE 119 30.00    
11  GROUND SHAKER Jul14 Jun05       (hancock jack )MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 30.00    
SCR  ZUN REYDER         (nihei mich)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00    
SCR  MO WORK         (maker michae)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 3.00    
SCR  MOON SNIPER         (miller darr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
 
ELP-5   07/28/2024 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3 ALL PT- 2:54
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MUGATU Jul06 May18 Apr06 Mar23 Mar02 (engler jeff)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.50    
CULPRIT Jun23 May04 Jul23 Jun22   (ward wesle)RODRIGUEZ A 122 3.00 28% 2.60    
CAROLO RAPIDO Jun30 Jun01 Apr20 Mar22 Feb18 (maker michae)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 2.50 47% 1.10    
POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Jul04 Jun18 May17 Jan12 Dec15 (hiles a)CANNON DECLAN 122 30.00    
COPPER ECHO Jun29 Jun09 Apr28 Mar23 Mar02 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 120 6.00    
DYNAMIS (IRE) Jul10 Jun13 May04 Aug28   (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 6.00 5% 19.00    
MO RHODES Jun29 May31 Apr24 Mar02 Oct29 (amoss thoma)TORRES A 120 6.00    
FIRST OF HIS NAME Jun27 May29 May09 Mar21 Aug26 (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 122 12.00    
 
ELP-6   07/28/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ENTICE THE NATION         (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
DR TIMOTHY May26         (wilkes r)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
TRUST ISSUES Dec14 Nov10       (lovell michell)TORRES A 119 3.00 36% 1.80    
ELEGANT TRIP Dec16 Nov22 Sep30 Sep02 Aug12 (arnold geor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 8.00 15% 5.60    
FORT SAM Jun09         (casse norm )TORRES A 119 8.00    
ROWDY RIOT Aug20         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
FLAME ROCK FIRE         (camejo m)RENGIFO KEIBER 119 30.00    
SCR  SEND CASH Jun27 May12       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 1.80    
CAPE MAELSTROM         (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
10  NOBLE EAGLE Mar20 Feb13       (beckman whitwo)CONNER TYLER 119 12.00    
SCR  DROBNY Jul05 May17 Mar07 Feb12 Jan12 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
12  ROCK N ROLL BOLT Jul20 Jun30 May26 Apr21 Apr11 (camejo m)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 5.00 28% 2.50    
SCR  GOOD LORD Dec23 Nov24 Oct29     (amoss thoma)TORRES A 119 6.00    
 
ELP-7   07/28/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:52
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BLACK NOISE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
MORAL DILEMMA         (schultz lin)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
BEAVER STATE         (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 119 20.00    
CARNITINE Jun23 May19 Apr06     (kenneally ed)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 3.00 36% 1.80    
LOU'S LEGACY Jul05 Jun13 May04 Apr13 Mar30 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 119 6.00 23% 3.30    
SCR  UNCLE WILLIAM Jun30 Jan06 Dec08 Nov04   (guida e)CANNON DECLAN 124 5.00    
AMENTUM         (walsh brend)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
AJAAYB May30 Apr28 Mar27 Feb21 Jan12 (esquiv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 124 8.00 6% 16.40    
EGLISE         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
10  MULTITASK Jun19         (harty eoin)TORRES A 119 8.00 15% 5.80    
11  GOLDEN SYMPHONY         (wilkes r)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
12  BRUNACINI         (sims p)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
SCR  SCUBA         (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
14  HIGH FIVE SY         (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
SCR  SHALLUS Jul10 Jun26 Jun17 May10 Mar09 (sanchez e)DE CRUZ 119 15.00    
SCR  IGNITE THE LIGHT Feb25 Dec02 Nov04 Sep16   (dutrow richar)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00    
 
ELP-8   07/28/2024 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HONEY HAULER Jul07 May19 May06 Mar15 Feb24 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
EMBRACE ME Jun30 Jun15 May19 May03 Apr13 (rutledge la)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00    
MAKE THE BOYS WINK Jul07 May03 Nov24 Nov04 Oct11 (medina robert)GEROUX FLORENT 122 3.50 24% 3.10    
NO FEAR (BRZ)         (lobo paulo )TORRES A 122 4.00 23% 3.30    
BEST PERFORMER Jun20 May19 Feb22 Jan15 Dec21 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 12% 7.50    
SCR  TITLED LADY Jun26 May03 Apr06 Mar10 Dec01 (amoss thomas)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 12.00    
CATMINT Jun30 Jun08 May11 Apr14 Mar07 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 20.00    
SCR  SCHOOL DANCE Jun02 May03 Apr04 Feb25 Aug12 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00    
CALLIE'S GRIT Jun20 Dec30 Nov24 Oct27 Sep03 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 8.00    
10  PAINT ME PERFECT Jun20 May03 Mar21 Feb15 Dec21 (margolis r)GRAHAM J 122 10.00 16% 5.20    
11  TOWHEAD Jun20 May10 Apr14 Mar14 Feb19 (maker michael )TORRES A 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
12  LADY JUNE Jul04 Jun07 May02 Apr10 Oct30 (castanon g)CASTANON L 118 30.00    
 
ELP-9   07/28/2024 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:48
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MORE SPIRITS PLEEZ         (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
SUCRE CECILE Jul07 Jun18 Jun02 Dec13 Nov17 (foster eri)RODRIGUEZ A 118 30.00    
FASHION AFFIRMED Jul05         (pittman )LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 20.00    
SHE'S SO MALICE         (maker michael )TORRES A 124 3.00 13% 7.00    
HAND IT OVER May25 Apr25 Apr05 Mar06 Jan17 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 118 4.00    
FANCY FASCINATOR Jun15 May10 Mar15     (moger jr)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
GOURMET Jul14 Jun05 May12 Apr20 Mar14 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.00 64% 0.60    
PLAY MAKER Jul04 Jun02       (wilkes r)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
COMPUTADORA (ARG) Jun19 May24 Apr27 Mar22   (brownfield claud)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
10  RETAIL THERAPY Jul04 May31 May17 Apr17 Mar08 (ortiz alexa)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00    
SCR  INDY LABEL Jul04 Jun06 Sep20 Aug04   (danner kelsey)ELLIOTT JANE 118 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.