Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 17, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/6/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/7/2)-(1/6/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/7/2)-(1/6/7/2)-(1/6/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/7/2)-(1/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/6/7/2)-(1/2/3)-(1/4/5/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (1/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/3)-(1/4/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3)-(1/4/5/3)-(6/3/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/4/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/5/3)-(1/4/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/5/3)-(1/4/5/3)-(1/4/5/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/5/3)-(6/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/5/3)-(6/3/4)-(10/14/2/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/4)-(6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/4)-(10/14/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/4)-(10/14/2/4)-(7/2/6/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/14/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/14/2/4)-(10/14/2/9/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/14/2/4)-(10/14/2/9/4)-(10/14/2/9/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/14/2/4)-(7/2/6/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (10/14/2/4)-(7/2/6/4)-(7/5/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/2/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/6/4)-(7/2/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/6/4)-(7/2/6/4)-(7/2/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/2/6/4)-(7/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/6/4)-(7/5/1)-(7/1/5/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (7/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/1)-(7/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/5/1)-(7/5/1)-(7/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/5/1)-(7/1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/5/1)-(7/1/5/6)-(3/1/10/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (7/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/5/6)-(7/1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/5/6)-(7/1/5/6)-(7/1/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/5/6)-(3/1/10/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (3/1/10/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/10/4)-(3/1/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/10/4)-(3/1/10/4)-(3/1/10/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/17/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPECIAL DISPATCH Apr24 Mar20 Mar01 Feb03 Jan05 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 1.80 49% 1.00    
2  COACH CAMPBELL May04 Apr13 Mar23     (desormeaux ke)LANERIE J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  LEBOMBO Apr19         (medina robert)ORTIZ L 118 8.00    
SCR  OATHBREAKER Apr25 Mar21       (margolis stephen)RIQUELME J 118 15.00    
5  BOUNTEOUS (IRE) Apr12 Mar03 Jan28 Nov11 Oct27 (atras rob)TORRES A 118 8.00    
6  MALIBLUE Apr30 Mar15       (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 4.00 13% 6.80    
7  DROBNY Mar07 Feb12 Jan12 Dec09 Nov04 (hartman chri)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 11% 8.50    
8  SEVEN TAYLORS Apr30         (moger jr)ROMAN A 118 12.00    
 
CD-2   05/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KYLE BEAUTY Apr27 Mar10 Feb25 Jan06 Dec15 (shirer mat)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 3.00 41% 1.50    
2  ABITIBI Apr19 Mar27 Mar09 Feb21 Jan24 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 118 2.50 23% 3.30    
3  ROSE PALACE Apr30 Mar02 Feb03 Jan06 Dec22 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  FOREVER HOME Apr30 Apr10 Mar02 Feb18 Jan28 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 118 2.00    
5  KITTEN CALLS Apr02 Feb06 Nov28 Oct25 Sep12 (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
6  GOSHEN Apr30 Apr10 Mar20 Jan24 Nov29 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 8.00    
 
CD-3   05/17/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ACHIEVE         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 38% 1.70    
  (by JUSTIFY out of DREAMS ARE MADE by TAPIT)
SCR  LALILY         (hancock d)CORREA L 119 10.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of VIOLINIST by REGAL CLASSIC)
3  LA CARA         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of CARA CATERINA by BERNARDINI)
4  ANAKARINA         (stewart dallas)LANERIE J 119 4.00 26% 2.90    
  (by VEKOMA out of TACIT APPROVAL by STOP THE MUSIC)
5  VODKA WITH A TWIST Apr24         (mccutchen jas)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00 14% 6.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of BOURBON AND A KISS by SKY MESA)
6  SWIFTWIND         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of PINEY POINT by CURLIN)
7  SLANG         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 4.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SUNBURY by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
8  MURPHY GIRL         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 5.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of CURLED by CURLIN)
 
CD-4   05/17/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSE ALABAMA Mar30         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
SCR  PAM PAM Apr07 Feb16 Nov19 Oct12   (moquett ronald)ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
3  CRUSHED ICE Mar27 Jan25 Dec22 Nov16 Oct28 (quartarol)LEPAROUX R 124 8.00 6% 15.80    
4  LOW KEY FLEX         (falcone robe)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ARGAN Apr27 Apr13 Mar23 Dec27 Jun08 (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 3.00    
6  RETAIL THERAPY Apr17 Mar08 Feb14     (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 118 6.00 61% 0.60    
7  GEORGIA ON E'SMIND Aug20         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 5.00    
8  VINO VELOCE Apr17 Aug04       (puhich mike)TORRES A 118 8.00    
 
CD-5   05/17/2024 3630ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEAR RIVER May01 Mar24 Mar02 Feb13 Jan18 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
2  RUN CARSON Apr26         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 6.00 25% 3.10    
SCR  PINFIRE Jan12 Dec09 Nov04 Sep14 Jan21 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 123 12.00    
4  POLSTER Apr12 Mar16       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ZARTOWNIS Mar28 Feb09 Dec29 Nov18 Oct26 (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 8.00    
SCR  GRANDE TORTUGON (CHI) Apr21 Mar15 Feb16 Feb01 Dec07 (walsh d)BEJARANO R 123 15.00    
7  CHAMBERS BAY Apr14 Mar30 Mar07 Feb22 Feb08 (guerrero sal)RIQUELME J 123 30.00    
8  PRETTY FAST Apr07 Mar07 Feb17 Jan31 Nov01 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 20.00    
9  COMMITTEE OF ONE Apr07 Mar15 Feb16 Jan27 Nov03 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 5.00 ★    
10  DEMOLITION DUKE Apr21 Mar24 Jun17 Apr15 Mar19 (walsh p)LANERIE J 123 2.50 28% 2.60    
11  CIGARETTE BOAT Dec01 Oct13 Sep14 Sep02 Aug13 (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 8.00    
12  SUGAR GRAY LEONARD Apr21 Sep16 Aug17 Jul20 Jul15 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 123 10.00    
SCR  EASY OPERATOR Apr08 Mar10 Feb09 Jan06 Dec08 (londono genevi)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 30.00    
14  SILVER HALO Feb24 Jan27       (foley greg)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 25% 3.00    
 
CD-6   05/17/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAMILY FACTOR Apr24 Mar08 Feb03 Jan12 Dec20 (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 12.00    
2  WRITE OFF JERRY Apr11 Mar21 Feb14 Feb02 Jan10 (sharp joe)TORRES A 123 5.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  QUENCIO Apr25 Apr12 Mar08 Feb02 Jan18 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 118 20.00    
4  MORE THAN FIVE May07 Mar10 Feb02 Dec29 Oct29 (garcia genaro)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  SMOOTHDINI Mar24 Mar01 Feb09 Nov23 Nov05 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
6  MAUNA KEA BOUND Mar31 Mar03 Jan28 Dec16 Nov17 (ewing michael )CASTANON L 123 3.00 13% 6.40    
7  QUARRYMEN May01 Mar20 Feb13 Jan06 Dec20 (amoss tho)TORRES A 118 4.00 31% 2.20    
8  SOUND DOCTRINE Apr26 Feb19 Nov02 Oct13 Sep14 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 2.50    
 
CD-7   05/17/2024 5940ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUPER CURIOSO (ARG) Apr18 Feb25 Feb10 Dec20 Nov03 (sanchez a)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  NEPAL UP Apr20 Apr05 Feb17 Oct20 Sep27 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
3  ON A SPREE Apr06 Mar15 Dec02 Sep27 Aug11 (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 3.00    
SCR  KNIGHT'S CROSS Mar31 Mar07 Dec29 Nov01 Oct09 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
5  P H FACTOR Apr21 Mar13 Feb09 Dec21 Nov16 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 5.00 19% 4.30    
6  HOODLUM Apr21 Mar22 Mar06 Feb10 Jan05 (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 5.00    
7  GUN RUSH Apr21 Mar21 Jan04 Dec16 Aug06 (watkins jame)CENTENO ALEXIS 120 4.50 35% 1.90    
SCR  BORN FLAWLESS Apr18 Feb16 Jan05 Dec15 Nov22 (amoss thomas)MONCADA IRVING 108 6.00    
 
CD-8   05/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOWL Dec26 Nov25 Oct28     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 30% 2.30    
2  CHANDANA Apr04 Feb03 Dec30 Dec16 Nov14 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 12.00    
3  UNSUNG MELODY Apr24 Sep17 Sep02 Jul14 Jun18 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 6.00    
4  BACKYARD MONEY Apr27 Apr04 Mar16 Mar08 Feb24 (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 123 6.00    
5  ANYWHO Sep02 Jul27 Jun03 Mar27 Oct23 (sadler jo)TORRES A 121 5.00 11% 8.10    
6  SWEET ALYSSA Apr25 Apr06 Mar21 Feb24 Jan25 (husak gary)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  AMARETTI Apr24 Feb24 May20 Apr12 Jun05 (mott i)ORTIZ L 121 3.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  CONDENSATION Apr27 Feb03 Dec30 Nov20 Oct06 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 5.00    
9  CHARRIERE Mar23 Feb03 Dec22 Nov08 Oct14 (mckeever andrew)GRAHAM J 121 20.00    
 
CD-9   05/17/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WITHOUT CAUSE Mar23 Feb09 Dec14 Oct29 Sep23 (casse m)DE CRUZ 118 6.00 20% 4.10    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of WITHHOLD by TIZNOW)
2  LUCKY SPEECH Apr05 Feb29 Jan27 Jan01   (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 20.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of LUCKYALLMYLIFE by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
3  TIMELESS ELEGANCE Apr21 Feb22 May24 Apr30   (thomas jonatha)ORTIZ L 125 3.00 40% 1.50    
  (by WAR FRONT out of L' AGE D'OR by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
4  MO LANTERN Apr18 Nov30 Nov01     (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of LANTERN by MINESHAFT)
5  MISHKA Nov25 Oct11       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of GOLD DUST WOMAN by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  STAY LOST Apr21 Oct07 Jun24 May13 Apr19 (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 125 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of DARCI'S DREAM by DARCI BRAHMA)
SCR  LEMON LATTE Apr05 Mar02       (barnett b)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
  (by LEMON DROP KID out of DOUBLE LATTE by THE FACTOR)
SCR  SCENIC BEAUTY Apr20 Jan12 Dec08 Oct25   (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of LUCKY COVER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  DEEP SATIN Apr18         (devaux ch)TORRES A 118 2.50    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of TAKE THE RIBBON by CHESTER HOUSE)
10  KIMBER SPICE Apr18 Mar03       (lovell miche)TORRES A 118 8.00 14% 6.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SWEET PROMISES by BERNARDINI)
11  HEARTSTRUCK Feb29 Sep09 Jul22     (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 125 15.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of PERFECT FOR YOU by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  MONT SAINT MICHEL (FR) Mar10         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of BLACK DAHLIA by OH SAY (IRE))
SCR  ADRASTEIA Mar28 Nov29 Nov16 Oct27 Sep28 (bogle fergus)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of ARROSTOS by BODEMEISTER)
SCR  CENTURIA (IRE) Apr18 Mar24       (romans dale)ORTIZ L 118 8.00    
  (by ADVERTISE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  SHE A BADDIE         (beckman d )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  MULIMA Aug31         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.