Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/5/1/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/5/1/4/6)-(7/5/1/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/5/1/4/6)-(7/5/1/4/6)-(7/5/1/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/5/1/4/6)-(6/1) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (7/5/1/4/6)-(6/1)-(2/9/1) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/1)-(6/1/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/1)-(6/1/7)-(6/1/7) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/1)-(2/9/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/1)-(2/9/1)-(12/4/1/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/9/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/9/1)-(2/9/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/9/1)-(2/9/1/4)-(2/9/1/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/9/1)-(12/4/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/9/1)-(12/4/1/5)-(3/8/4/5/10) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (12/4/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (12/4/1/5)-(12/4/1/5/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (12/4/1/5)-(12/4/1/5/2)-(12/4/1/5/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (12/4/1/5)-(3/8/4/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (12/4/1/5)-(3/8/4/5/10)-(7/1/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (3/8/4/5/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/8/4/5/10)-(3/8/4/5/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/8/4/5/10)-(3/8/4/5/10)-(3/8/4/5/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/8/4/5/10)-(7/1/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/8/4/5/10)-(7/1/2)-(3/13/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/2)-(7/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1/2)-(7/1/2)-(7/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/1/2)-(3/13/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/1/2)-(3/13/8)-(3/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/13/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/13/8)-(3/13/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/13/8)-(3/13/8)-(3/13/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/13/8)-(3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1)-(3/1/6/2)-(3/1/6/2) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/18/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WORKS FOR ME         (leitch d)RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DADDY LONG LEGS out of BELLA'S GAME by SOLDAT)
2  EARLY MUNNY Apr27 Apr07       (hancock a)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of PI BELLA by PIONEERING)
3  WILSON Q         (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of MARGATE GARDENS by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  TRAILING MONSTER         (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TALE OF EKATI out of RUN WRIGHTAWAY by RUN AWAY AND HIDE)
5  GOLD SWEEP         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 25% 3.10    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of WONDER BREW by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  TOP OF THE STREET         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of CHATI'S ON TOP by OLD TOPPER)
7  STORMQUIST         (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 3.00 32% 2.10    
  (by NYQUIST out of CAJUN DAWN by AWESOME AGAIN)
8  RHYME SCHEMES         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of KATHERINE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
9  THE RUSH IS ON Apr27 Apr13       (vosler eugene )HUGHES CARLY 119 20.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CARRIE by GONE ASTRAY)
 
CD-2   05/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PUGLIA Apr27 Feb25 Feb01 Jan06 Dec15 (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.50 22% 3.60    
2  FAST GAL May02 Jan25 Jan05 Jul17   (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
3  BEACH KITTEN May02 Feb25 Feb01 Nov11 Oct19 (miller jerome)MORALES EDGAR 123 15.00    
4  TRIBAL SPIRIT May05 Mar19 Feb26 Feb19 Feb05 (asmussen)RODRIGUEZ A 113 4.00    
SCR  MONOCACY Jan05 Dec16 Nov25 Nov18 Nov03 (king l)CASTANON L 123 4.50    
6  A LITTLE BIT CRAZY Mar26 Jan22 Jan14 Dec03 Oct28 (wong jonath)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 2.00 48% 1.10    
7  FLORIS May26 May03 Apr10     (duvall wil)MICHEL MICKAELLE 123 6.00 ★    
 
CD-3   05/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3 ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISTER SHARPIE Mar09 Feb10 Jul10     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 12.00 13% 6.60    
2  FROG TOWN Apr08 Feb20 Jan28 Jan07 Dec09 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 118 3.50 39% 1.60    
3  COWBOY VALUES Feb11 Dec10       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
4  ATKINS Mar19 Feb24 Feb03 Dec31 Dec11 (mott riley)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 5.00 ★    
SCR  HUMOR ME NOW Apr30 Mar23       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
6  BIG BEEMSTER Mar12 Feb20 Jan28 Jan06 Dec19 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
7  ODDSONTONY Apr28 Apr12 Mar23 Feb25 Jan21 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00    
8  CHAMBERS BAY Apr12 Mar17       (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
9  DEVIL'S CAY Mar24 Mar02 Dec22 Nov19   (ramirez m)NAVAS YOEL 111 4.00 22% 3.50    
 
CD-4   05/18/2023 7260ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAY STACK Apr07 Jan22 Nov19 Sep23 Aug21 (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 8% 11.70    
2  SUCH SOUNDS Apr28 Mar23 Feb25 Dec15 Oct21 (bauer philip)LANDEROS CHRIS 126 6.00 ★    
3  CHATON ROUGE Apr28 Mar15 Feb20 Jan13 Dec10 (glover tracey)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 30.00    
4  ELLE EST FORTE Apr16 Mar05 Jan05 Oct27 Sep25 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00 24% 3.10    
5  SWEETS MAKER Mar23 Feb25 Feb11 Dec15 Nov18 (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 117 15.00 6% 15.40    
6  LOVED REIKO Oct27 Oct07 Jul29 Jul07   (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 124 15.00    
SCR  IMPLOSION Apr13 Mar11 Jan28 Nov25 Oct27 (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 20.00    
SCR  I FEEL THE NEED Apr28 Apr15 Mar30 Mar04 Feb17 (mcbride d)LANERIE J 124 20.00    
9  DIVINELY BOLT Apr22 Mar05 Feb03 Jan21 Nov25 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
10  QUEEN JUDITH Apr13 Nov03 Oct14 Jun25 Apr14 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 124 8.00    
11  FRIVOLE (FR)         (motion h )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 10.00    
12  JOYFUL APPLAUSE May02 Dec21 Nov25 Nov03 Oct10 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.50 40% 1.50    
13  LA TOURISTA Apr22 Apr13 Mar17 Feb16 Feb01 (cano jua)RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
SCR  COLONEL ABY B Apr13 Mar31 Nov08 Oct13 Aug29 (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 30.00    
 
CD-5   05/18/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ICEATUDE Apr14 Dec31 Dec11 Nov13 Oct29 (navarrete ann)CANNON DECLAN 124 3.00    
2  SERGEANT COUNTZLER Feb04 Nov03 May12 Apr20   (hiles ric)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
3  MO MOVES Mar23 Feb25 Jan20 Nov18 Jul12 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50 45% 1.20    
4  RUN FOR REAGAN Apr28 Apr13 Apr01     (wohlers laur)RAMOS D 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  TIME TO MEDDLE Mar26 Jun04 May03 Apr08 Mar16 (forster t)GRAHAM J 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  WICKED SECRET Nov03 Sep28 Aug31     (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00    
7  MOONOVERMONTGOMERY May03         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 15.00    
8  KUPP Mar12 Feb18 Jan28 Nov13 Sep17 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 23% 3.30    
9  ALL JOKES ASIDE Apr27 Apr14       (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
10  SIPPICAN SHOP         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  STAYINYOURLANE Apr29 Mar24       (medina tomas)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
12  BOUDIN Jan27 Nov17 Oct28 Sep30   (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
 
CD-6   05/18/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 4UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROMAN CENTURIAN Mar11 Feb18 May15     (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00 7% 12.60    
2  ZOOMER Apr22 Mar26 Mar04 Jan27 Jan08 (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ORDER AND LAW Apr23 Mar03 Dec31 Nov25 Oct16 (hess b)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
4  OUTLIER Apr29 Apr16 Apr01 Mar22 Mar03 (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 6.00    
SCR  DISC JOCKEY Apr22 Feb20 Jan29 Dec17 Nov08 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 2.00    
SCR  KOUFAX Mar16 Jan28 Dec21 Oct02 Aug22 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
7  INTREPID HEART Feb20 Jan21 Dec26 Nov12 Sep28 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 61% 0.60    
8  KING'S OVATION Apr23 Feb02 Nov23 Apr20 Mar05 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
 
CD-7   05/18/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY PUCHI Apr12 Nov25 Oct28 Oct14 Sep06 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00    
2  PHAROAH'S SONG Dec03 Oct30 Oct01 Sep06 Aug06 (motion graham)GRAHAM J 122 12.00    
3  UNDER ONE SKY Apr12 Mar31 Mar02 Jan20 Dec07 (cano jua)RODRIGUEZ A 117 6.00 16% 5.40    
4  BHOMA Apr12 Mar10 Mar05     (catalano way)GEROUX FLORENT 122 20.00    
SCR  WILLOW BEND May17 Apr01 Mar10 Feb03 Nov27 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 116 20.00    
6  BLISSFUL Apr12 Feb16 Dec31 Oct13 Jul30 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00    
SCR  TALBEYAH (IRE) Jan26 Aug13 Jul01 May21   (casse mar)TORRES A 122 6.00 22% 3.50    
8  SHE'S GONE Apr22 Feb04 Nov25 Oct15 Sep10 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
9  TAP DANCING LADY Apr01 Feb25 Jan28 Jan05 Dec22 (kahles ronald)JIMENEZ ALBIN 122 20.00    
SCR  MISE EN SCENE (GB) Apr22 Dec26 Nov05     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 31% 2.20    
11  MANUCA (BRZ)         (lobo paul)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 10.00    
12  FANCY MARTINI Mar02 Jan21 Nov25 Oct20 Sep05 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00    
13  ONE TIME MO Apr12 Dec22 Nov06 Oct01 Apr28 (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 8.00 6% 16.80    
14  FOREVER DREAMING Apr07 Feb12 Jan07 Sep04 Aug14 (lukas w)TORRES A 122 10.00    
SCR  KATHAAN Apr22 Jan19 Nov25 Oct30 Oct09 (goldfine m)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 10.00    
 
CD-8   05/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PENUMBRAS MAKER Apr28 Apr07 Feb16 Jan29 Dec26 (gutierrez fa)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 12% 7.10    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of BALAYAGE by WAR FRONT)
2  CHURCH SERVICE Mar26 Mar03 Jan14 May01 Apr15 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 10.00 ★    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of ROBI JO by LEMON DROP KID)
3  FREEDOM FOR ALL Apr22 Mar25       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 61% 0.60    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of MARVELOUS SPOT by ARCHARCHARCH)
SCR  STUNNINGLY Apr07 Sep04 Jul04     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 ★    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of HAPPY MESA by SKY MESA)
5  TAKE SHAPE Sep30         (arnold georg)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 10.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of LOOM by HARD SPUN)
6  INVENTING ANNA Oct30 Oct08 Sep06 Aug10   (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 118 10.00 ★    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of YES LIZ by YES IT'S TRUE)
7  NEVER TELL PATTI Apr01 Mar02       (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of PRINCESSOF THE NYL by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
8  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES Apr15 Nov10 Sep22 Aug28   (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
  (by KLIMT out of BOOT SCOOT N RUN by STORM BOOT)
9  FANCY Mar16 Jan29       (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
  (by JUSTIFY out of LACADENA by FASLIYEV)
SCR  BEAUTIFUL BOLT Apr22 Apr01 Feb25     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of BEAUTIFUL BECCA by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.