Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 24, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/24/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT-11:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ESPECIALLY YOU Oct07 Sep23 Sep08 Aug23 Jul15 (shifflett ch)ARAGON ROLANDO 120 8.00    
2  LOOKIN ROYAL Nov17         (huffman pa)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00 ★    
3  FUNNYBET Sep24 May03 Feb12     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 12% 7.20    
4  EVERYOTHERWON Oct27 Sep29 Aug03 Jun29 May26 (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 120 5.00 ★    
5  LA TOURISTA Nov06 Oct09 Aug28 Aug06 Jul22 (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 5.00 ★    
6  AIDANIKE Nov06 Sep24 Sep05 Jul21 Jun11 (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 2.50 53% 0.90    
7  ANCIENT BROWN Oct21 Sep09 Jun29 Apr27 Apr14 (humphries tho)CANNON DECLAN 120 6.00    
 
CD-2   11/24/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT-11:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY ENVOY Nov10 Oct21 Sep23 Jul16   (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 10.00 ★    
2  TRIBAL SPIRIT Nov02 Sep24       (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
SCR  ROYAL DAME Oct22 Sep28       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 ★    
4  SIMPERING SMILE Oct21 Sep09       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 48% 1.10    
SCR  SURE ENOUGH Nov11 Oct21 Sep02 Aug14   (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
6  GOODBETTERBEST Oct16 Sep22 Aug26     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 2.50 20% 4.00    
7  FREE SPIRITED Oct16 Sep22 Aug26     (ortiz alexan)DIAZ RENE 114 6.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  XTRASAUCEWELLDONE Nov11 Oct21 Jul16     (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
9  FROSTY DIVA Sep29 Aug07       (forster t)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
10  RIGHT NOW Oct13 Sep17 Aug26     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
 
CD-3   11/24/2022 6270ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT-12:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLUEGRASS PARKWAY Sep16 Aug24 Jul27 Jul01   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00    
2  SILVER DUST Nov02 Oct20 Sep25 Jul24 Jun23 (vance d)LANERIE J 121 2.00 63% 0.60    
3  MAX EXPRESS Oct05 Sep14 Aug24 Jun23 Jun08 (lau)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 8.00 9% 10.00    
4  HUGE BIGLY Oct16 Sep05 Aug14 Feb19   (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  BANDIT SWANSON Nov13 Oct20 Aug02 Jun19 May12 (hernandez )MURRILL MITCHELL 121 4.50 ★    
6  GO EMI Nov10 Oct05 Sep22 Aug23 Aug04 (gonzalez lilia)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
7  FULL CHARGE Nov02 Oct09 Aug15 Jul13 Jun09 (west w)MORALES EDGAR 121 4.00 ★    
 
CD-4   11/24/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT-12:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DRIVE FOR FUN Nov09 Oct14 Sep17 Jan13   (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00 7% 13.40    
2  CARBONITE Nov09 Oct09 Sep22 Aug08   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
3  FRENCH COMPOSER Nov10 Nov02 Oct05 Sep20 Aug30 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 118 4.50 ★    
4  CHASING RAINBOWS Oct28 Sep14 Aug21 May07   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 48% 1.10    
5  MIACOMET Nov06 Oct13 Sep17 Jan29 Jan08 (moquett ronald)ROSARIO JOEL 120 3.50 ★    
6  CENTURION Oct27 Sep28 Aug15 Jul23 Apr30 (schultz linds)GARCIA MARTIN 120 4.50 19% 4.40    
SCR  BLUE NORTHER Oct27 Oct16 Sep14 Aug26 Jul29 (walden w)SANTANA JR 118 12.00    
 
CD-5   11/24/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SHARP TAP Oct30         (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 ★    
2  D'ORO STREET         (dio)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 8.00    
SCR  SUPER SPIRIT         (diodoro robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00 ★    
4  BADGELAND         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
5  SURE CAN Oct30         (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 2.50 59% 0.70    
6  AMERICAN FAIRYTALE Oct30         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
7  RUTHLESS RUA Oct22         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.00 6% 15.20    
8  BOARDWALK QUEEN Oct30 Sep25       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 3.50 14% 6.20    
 
CD-6   11/24/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VOW         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 13% 6.80    
2  STORY HOUR Feb13 Jan09       (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00 ★    
3  BURNT MATCH Aug10         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 15.00    
4  MARKSWOMAN Nov06 Oct01       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 59% 0.70    
SCR  LITTLE SISTER SUE Oct26 Sep28       (reed r)LEON SONNY 122 8.00 ★    
6  ITDOWHATITDO Oct01         (sims phili)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00    
7  DELIGHTOF THE NILE Oct01         (romans dale)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 ★    
8  MIDNIGHT TANGO Nov06         (pitts helen)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00    
9  BOW TO NONE Sep13 Aug18       (navarrete ann)GARCIA MARTIN 124 30.00    
 
CD-7   11/24/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STONEVICIOUS Oct28 Oct14 Apr02 Feb26 Jan01 (foster eric)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00    
2  UPSTRIKER Jul24 Jun10 Apr24 Mar12 Feb20 (moquett ronald)ROSARIO JOEL 120 4.00 25% 3.10    
3  OLLIEMEISTER Oct09 Sep17 Jul22 Jun25 Apr23 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 3.00 ★    
4  LUCKY BOSS Oct28 Oct08 Sep05 Jul23 Jun12 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00 11% 8.20    
5  FLAGS UP Oct28 Sep24 Aug20 Jun19 May22 (baker james)LANERIE J 120 8.00 23% 3.30    
6  MONEY MIKE Nov17 Nov03 Oct15 Oct02 Aug17 (cash l)BEJARANO R 120 15.00    
7  COLD AS HELL Nov16 Oct20 Sep24 Aug13 Jul14 (lukas wa)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 9% 10.70    
8  RED LABEL Oct12 Sep18 Jul17 Jun22 May29 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 118 10.00    
9  BRAWNDO Oct12 Sep14 Aug24 Jul17 Apr30 (mejia de)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
 
CD-8   11/24/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POWDER RIVER Oct28 Sep15 Jun30 Jun04 May06 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.50 ★    
2  TEMPER TIME Sep15 Aug14 Jul09 Jun04 May06 (romans dal)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 12.00    
3  TAP DANCING LADY Oct28 Sep15 Jul08 Jun18 May06 (kahles ronald)MCKEE J 118 10.00 ★    
4  DOROTHEA Oct21 Sep18 Jul17 Jun26   (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
5  MISTY VEIL Nov12 Sep29 Aug19 Jul09 Jun12 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 4.00 ★    
6  ILLIOGAMI May06 Apr09       (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  MICROCAP Oct28 Sep29 Jul09 Jun25 Jun04 (forster gr)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
SCR  LADY FROSTED Sep13 Aug07 Jul09 Jun04 Apr26 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00    
9  JAG WARRIOR Oct07 Sep17 Aug13 Jul30 Jun19 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
10  PRINCESS OF CAIRO Oct28 Oct09 Aug14 Jun29   (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.50 64% 0.60    
 
CD-9   11/24/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INVULNERABLE         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
2  UNCLE REG         (mccarthy mic)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00    
3  SPEAKINOFTHEDEVIL Oct23         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 41% 1.50    
4  STRAY CAT         (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
5  STUCK N SNOW         (von donn)ROCCO S 119 12.00    
6  DAKOTA RUN Nov05 Oct07 Jun23     (simms jr)COHEN DAVID 119 5.00 10% 9.30    
7  CRAVENSWORTH         (moquett ronald)ROSARIO JOEL 119 6.00 ★    
SCR  NOT SO HOLY         (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
9  ONASA         (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
10  HARDMONEYMUCHACHOS May04         (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
11  AERATOR Nov05 Oct09       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
12  BRAZEN BOY Oct30         (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 26% 2.80    
13  COMMERCE COMET         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
SCR  WINGER         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
SCR  TRACK SHOT         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
 
CD-10   11/24/2022 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($500K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEADER OF THE BAND Sep24 Aug19 Jul23 Jun11 May08 (servis c)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.50 32% 2.10    
  (by BANDBOX out of CATSUIT by SIR CAT)
2  BELLAMORE Oct08 Sep10 Aug19 Jul22 May28 (callaghan sim)GARCIA MARTIN 121 5.00 ★    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of SMART N SOFT by SMART STRIKE)
3  MOON SWAG Oct28         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 ★    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of YARA (IRE) by SRI PEKAN)
4  PLAYED HARD Oct09 Sep17 Aug04 Jun30 May21 (bauer a)ROSARIO JOEL 121 0.80 43% 1.30    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of WELL LIVED by TIZNOW)
5  AVA'S GRACE Nov10 Jul02 Jun04 May06 Apr08 (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 121 10.00 ★    
  (by LAOBAN out of COVER GIRL ELLE by OUT OF PLACE)
6  SHE'S ALL WOLFE Oct21 Sep28 Jul02 Jun04 May06 (von donn)ROCCO S 121 6.00    
  (by MAGNA GRADUATE out of SHE'S ALL IN by INCLUDE)
 
CD-11   11/24/2022 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PASS THE PLATE Oct22 May06 Apr14 Feb19 Jan22 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 10.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of POCKET GIFT by GREAT NOTION)
2  DISAPPEARING ACT Oct21 Sep13 Jul16 May28 Apr21 (santamaria carl)LANERIE J 121 30.00    
  (by MAGICIAN (IRE) out of FELICIDADES by CONGRATS)
3  PERSEVERANCIA Oct21 Aug11 Jul02 Jun11 Apr30 (devaux ch)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of UNDETERRED by MORE THAN READY)
4  LAKE LUCERNE Oct26 Sep10 Aug13 Jul09 Jun05 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DUBAWI (IRE) out of ROUND POND by AWESOME AGAIN)
5  DALIKA (GER) Nov05 Sep10 Aug13 Jul16 Jun05 (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 125 2.00 37% 1.70    
  (by PASTORIUS (GER) out of DRAWN TO RUN (IRE) by HURRICANE RUN (IRE))
6  ADVENTURING Oct08 Sep13 Aug06     (cox h)ROSARIO JOEL 125 1.80 20% 4.10    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of QUESTING (GB) by HARD SPUN)
7  SUNNY ONE Oct21 Sep10 Aug16 May19 Apr24 (murphy co)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 123 8.00 ★    
  (by DIALED IN out of PARTY SMART by SMART STRIKE)
8  FLIPPANT Oct22 Sep13 Aug13 Jul09 May30 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 18% 4.70    
  (by TAPIT out of FRIVOLOUS by FOOLISH PLEASURE)
9  CURLY RUTH Oct22 Sep14 Jun18 May06 Apr14 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00    
  (by CURLIN out of RUTHERIENNE by PULPIT)
SCR  WAVE OF GOODNESS Oct23 Sep24 Jun03 May20 Apr23 (hernandez )MURRILL MITCHELL 121 30.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of MANDALAY BEACH by LONHRO (AUS))
 
CD-12   11/24/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 4:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISCHIEVOUS GAL Oct22         (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 24% 3.30    
2  TITUBA         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 21% 3.80    
3  RING TWICE Nov10 Sep24       (von donn)ROCCO S 119 8.00    
4  LADY WITH A CAUSE         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 12.00    
5  SECRET STATEMENT Nov10         (baker jam)LEPAROUX R 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
6  ICICLES         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
7  EYES OF GOLD Oct22 Sep22 Aug13 Jul04 Jun08 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 ★    
8  PERFECT ROSE Nov17 Nov02 Oct13 Sep29 Sep16 (vasquez sr)COURT K 119 30.00    
9  GRAY VIXEN Nov10         (ewing mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MOR HAPPY HOURS Nov10 Sep22       (vance r)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.