Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - January 11, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/3/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/2/4)-(1/3/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/2/4)-(1/3/2/4)-(1/3/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/2/4)-(5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/2/4)-(5/3/2)-(1/4/6/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-2   WIN (5/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/2)-(5/3/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/3/2)-(5/3/6/2)-(5/3/6/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/3/2)-(1/4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2)-(1/4/6/7)-(2/8/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-3   WIN (1/4/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/6/7)-(1/4/6/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/4/6/7)-(1/4/6/5/7)-(1/4/6/5/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/4/6/7)-(2/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6/7)-(2/8/7)-(3/9/8/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-4   WIN (2/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/8/7)-(2/8/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/8/7)-(2/8/7/1)-(2/8/7/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/8/7)-(3/9/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/8/7)-(3/9/8/1)-(5/2/8/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-5   WIN (3/9/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/9/8/1)-(3/9/8/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/9/8/1)-(3/9/8/5/1)-(3/9/8/5/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/9/8/1)-(5/2/8/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/9/8/1)-(5/2/8/7)-(2/7/8/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
AQU-6   WIN (5/2/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/8/7)-(5/2/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/8/7)-(5/2/8/7)-(5/2/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/8/7)-(2/7/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/2/8/7)-(2/7/8/4)-(12/14/1/13/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-7   WIN (2/7/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/8/4)-(2/7/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/8/4)-(2/7/8/4)-(2/7/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/8/4)-(12/14/1/13/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
AQU-8   WIN (12/14/1/13/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/14/1/13/6)-(12/14/1/13/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/14/1/13/6)-(12/14/1/13/6)-(12/14/1/13/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/11/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($36K) 4UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OPPORTUNITY SET Dec01 Nov09 Oct15 Sep14 Aug04 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 118 2.50 ★    
1A  MUDVILLE NINE Dec28 Nov16 Nov02 Oct08 Aug20 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 2.50 34% 1.90    
2  SOUTH STREET Dec28 Dec03 Nov11 Nov02 Oct07 (jones ed)DAVIS A 120 4.50 10% 8.90    
2B  PINE VALLEY Dec28 Dec16 Nov10 Nov02 Sep28 (jones eduard)HARKIE K 120 4.50    
3  MEMPHIS Dec28 Dec15 Nov09 Oct21 Aug12 (potts wayne)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.00 24% 3.20    
4  SCREW LOOSE Dec02 Nov10 Sep21 Aug17 Jul08 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.00 6% 15.90    
5  FLASH KISS Dec17 Nov17 Oct14 Apr20 Dec16 (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 5.00    
6  COLLECT FROM IKE Dec30 Dec16 Dec03 Nov12 Oct22 (pregman john)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 8.00    
 
AQU-2   01/11/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MADDIE'S SURPRISE Dec10 Oct31 Oct17 Oct04 Sep20 (sells rachel)CARMOUCHE K 123 10.00    
2  HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH Dec10 Nov19 Oct19 Sep22 Jan29 (barker edwar)HARKIE K 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  DIAMOND COLLECTOR Dec10 Nov16 Oct22 Oct08 Sep22 (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 123 4.50 29% 2.50    
4  WARTAPPED Dec08 Nov19 Oct31 Oct04 Sep06 (delauro edward )DAVIS KATIE 123 8.00    
5  CUPIDS GIRL Nov19 Oct22 Oct07 Jun23 Apr22 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 1.60 43% 1.30    
6  JACKSON AVENUE Dec29 Dec15 Nov13 Oct23 Oct04 (breed ro)DAVIS A 123 5.00 ★    
7  SIMPLE SUGAR Dec10 Nov04 Oct19 Sep22 Aug18 (giglio gina)LUZZI J 120 4.00    
 
AQU-3   01/11/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($39K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIVA BANKER Jan05 Dec08 Nov10 Oct20 Sep28 (rodriguez r)PAREDES JHOVANY 111 4.00 46% 1.20    
SCR  BEAUTIFUL KAREN Jan05 Dec14 Sep28 Aug20 Jul27 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 4.00 ★    
2  MERAVIGLIOSO Dec08 Nov18 Oct20 Sep02 Aug24 (diprima grego)SILVERA RUBEN 118 12.00    
3  HONORABLE LILLY Jul11 Jun19 May16 Apr25 Feb18 (sells rachel)LUZZI J 118 20.00    
4  I'M BUZZY Dec14 Nov25 Oct27 Jul28 Jul04 (reynolds patric)RUIZ ELISEO 115 3.00 24% 3.20    
5  JACKIE THE JOKER Jan04 Dec07 Nov10 Oct20 Aug24 (bernardini juan)CANCEL ERIC 118 3.50 ★    
6  KILLY START Dec23 Oct29 Sep16 Sep06 Aug24 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 6.00 6% 14.80    
7  MIDTOWN ROSE Dec14 Nov17 Oct24 Aug24 Jun23 (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SLACK TIDE Dec07 Nov10 Oct08 Jul23 Jun25 (kantarmaci me)OLVER MADISON 113 6.00    
9  OUR LITTLE TIGER Dec07 Nov14 Oct23 Sep06 Aug07 (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 118 12.00    
 
AQU-4   01/11/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($37K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BERN ROSEY BERN Dec15 Nov19 Oct26 May14 Apr22 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 ★    
2  SILVER FIST Nov16 Sep01 Jul07 May29 Apr23 (giangiulio mich)DAVIS KATIE 120 2.50 42% 1.40    
SCR  TRY IT AGAIN Dec03 Nov19 Oct26 Oct06 Jul27 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 8.00    
4  FULIGNI Oct23 Aug02 Jun17 Apr29 Mar03 (bond harol)RIVERA R 118 8.00    
5  LINCOLNVILLE BEACH Nov16 Oct05 Sep08 Aug26 Aug05 (englehart chr)FRANCO MANUEL 120 6.00    
6  MENDED WE STAND Dec19 Dec03 Nov07 Oct20 Sep20 (padill)BERRIOS-LOPEZ DAYLOR 118 6.00    
7  LOCKBOX Dec28 Nov13 Oct23 Oct04 Jul12 (d'alessandro )SILVERA RUBEN 120 10.00 14% 6.30    
8  ROJA LIGERA Dec28 Dec03 Nov19 Oct22 Sep22 (follett norman)RUIZ ELISEO 115 5.00 15% 5.80    
 
AQU-5   01/11/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($72K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHARED SUCCESS Dec17 Nov08 Oct23 Sep25 Aug27 (nevin miche)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  HORSE BE WITH YOU Dec17 Nov20 Oct23 Oct04 Sep18 (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 123 15.00    
3  SIGNAL CORPS Dec01 Mar04       (pletcher todd)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 35% 1.90    
4  AMEDEUS MUSIC Dec16 Oct20 Sep24 Aug01 Jul08 (de horacio)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00    
5  AULA Dec15 Dec02 Nov17 Oct13 Sep25 (maker michael)SILVERA RUBEN 120 5.00 ★    
6  MORETHANAFEELING Dec05 Nov06 Sep17 Aug09 Jul03 (servis tyler)PENNINGTON F 123 15.00    
7  NOBLE HUNTSMAN Dec17 Nov16 Sep17 Aug27 Aug05 (friedman mit)HARKIE K 120 20.00    
8  SHPILKES Oct18 Oct04 Sep11 Jun10 May22 (preciado g)SANCHEZ J 123 3.50 12% 7.60    
9  LOCKE AND KEY Dec16 Nov10 Oct01 Aug31 Aug17 (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 120 5.00 32% 2.10    
10  LEO AND ROYAL Dec16 Nov18 Oct23 Oct09 Sep12 (englehart )RIVERA R 118 10.00    
 
AQU-6   01/11/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISINTENTION Dec15 Nov26 Oct22 Sep22 Sep23 (mott will)VARGAS A 122 3.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CROWNED by BERNARDINI)
2  NYXED Dec07 Oct28 Sep21 Oct22 Oct01 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.80 18% 4.50    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of ZINZAY by SMART STRIKE)
3  ADDRESSABLE MARKET (IRE) Nov25 Oct26 Oct05 Sep03 May14 (metivier rich)OLVER MADISON 117 30.00    
  (by KODIAC out of EAVESDROP by PHONE TRICK)
4  ALLEGEDLY (IRE) Dec07 Nov16 Jul30     (martin f)DAVIS KATIE 122 15.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of ROMANTICISM by GONE WEST)
5  RISK FREE Dec07 Oct14 Sep15 Aug25 Jul30 (delauro )GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 3.50 37% 1.70    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of KEEP CROSSING by ISTAN)
6  LIL JERSEY GIRL Dec15 Oct26       (siculietan)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 115 50.00    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of NORTHERN WARRIOR by DESERT WARRIOR)
7  CONFIRMED STAR Dec20 Nov28 Oct18 Sep01   (reid rober)SANCHEZ J 122 12.00 7% 14.40    
  (by UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN out of ITS MY TOWN by COWTOWN CAT)
8  LA GIRVINA Dec15 Sep15 Aug18     (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 122 2.50 17% 4.80    
  (by GIRVIN out of LIBBYRIS by ALGORITHMS)
 
AQU-7   01/11/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STARSHIP DEFIANT Dec14 Oct04 Sep02 Aug16 Aug06 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 123 5.00    
1A  TAMING THE TIGRESS Oct28 Jul27 Jun04 May28 May06 (jacobson david)CANCEL ERIC 118 5.00    
2  STONEWALL STAR Nov24 Apr16 Feb18 Jan22 Dec30 (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 123 2.50 56% 0.80    
3  DESERT DALLIANCE Nov26 Oct06 Aug29 Jul22 Jun17 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 8.00    
4  PEAK OF CHIC Dec08 Nov15 Sep25 Jun12 May25 (moore michae)HERNANDEZ ANDY 123 8.00 5% 18.20    
5  BANK ON ANNA Oct29 Aug11 Jun25 May12 Dec04 (serpe ph)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 12.00    
SCR  MISSY GREER Nov25 Oct27 Jun15 Dec30 Dec01 (morley tho)RIVERA R 113 20.00    
7  DOWNTOWN MISCHIEF Dec14 Jul08 May29 Apr29 Mar18 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 3.00 9% 10.50    
8  ROYAL POPPY Nov24 Oct07 Sep02 Jun23 May20 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 8% 10.80    
 
AQU-8   01/11/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3 F PT- 4:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NO LAYUPS Dec16 Nov02       (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00 11% 8.00    
2  MYSARIA Dec03 Nov10 Oct21     (hills a)DAVIS KATIE 120 20.00    
3  KHALI'S STORM Dec16 Aug27       (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 120 20.00    
SCR  MISS NYQUIST         (contessa c)RUIZ ELISEO 115 15.00    
5  ALOTTA JAYS Nov24 Oct20 Aug02     (schettino do)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 30.00    
6  LADY LAWRENCE         (pro)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 30.00 5% 19.00    
7  GOING FOR GLORY Dec03 Nov09 Oct21     (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 12.00    
8  DREAMERY Nov20 Aug12 Jul27 Jun23   (o'callahan )MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 20.00    
SCR  SPICY TUNA         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00    
10  MIA NIPOTINA Dec28 Dec03 Oct22 Oct01   (sells rachel)LUZZI J 120 10.00    
SCR  NIGERIA Dec16         (lakeman an)RIVERA R 115 8.00    
12  NEEDED Dec03 Nov09 Sep15 Jul26   (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 32% 2.10    
13  REZOOM         (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
14  NECESSARYANDPROPER Dec03 Nov09 Oct01     (dutrow)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 8.00 29% 2.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.