Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - November 24, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/4)-(2/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/4)-(4/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/4)-(4/7/5)-(4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-2   WIN (4/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/5)-(4/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/5)-(4/7/5)-(4/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/5)-(4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/7/5)-(4/2)-(6/1/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-3   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(6/1/2)-(1/4/6/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-4   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/2)-(6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/2)-(1/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2)-(1/4/6/2)-(2/1/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-5   WIN (1/4/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/6/2)-(1/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/6/2)-(1/4/6/2)-(1/4/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/6/2)-(2/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6/2)-(2/1/4)-(5/1/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-6   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/4)-(5/1/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4)-(5/1/8)-(8/7/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-7   WIN (5/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/8)-(5/1/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/8)-(5/1/8)-(5/1/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/8)-(8/7/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/8)-(8/7/5)-(4/11) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-8   WIN (8/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/7/5)-(8/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/7/5)-(8/7/5)-(8/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/7/5)-(4/11) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
AQU-9   WIN (4/11) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/11)-(4/11/5/9/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (4/11)-(4/11/5/9/1)-(4/11/5/9/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   11/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($54K) 2 F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NATURAL FACT         (pregman john)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 15.00    
2  BY THE GLASS Oct14         (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 2.50 29% 2.50    
SCR  SHE SHE'S SHADOW Nov06 Aug30       (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 119 6.00    
4  DON'T LISTEN Oct01 Sep04       (duarte jorge )FRANCO MANUEL 119 4.00 29% 2.50    
5  DOROTHY'S DREAMS Oct13 Aug31 Jul08     (terranova j)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 3.50    
6  EXTRA DIRTY Oct14 Aug13       (chatterpaul na)ORTIZ L 119 3.00    
SCR  UNHEARD Apr12         (martin f)CANCEL ERIC 119 8.00    
 
AQU-2   11/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED D G P Jul15 Jul03 Jun04 May11 Apr23 (ferraro ja)RIVERA R 117 5.00    
2  BLUE PLATE SPECIAL Nov02 Oct14 Sep22 Aug19 Jul08 (toscano t)ORTIZ L 120 8.00    
SCR  FENWICK Nov05 Aug20 Jul08 Oct30 Oct01 (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 1.40    
4  YOUBETTERBEJOKING Mar18 Nov06       (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.00 57% 0.70    
5  RETURN THE RING Aug13 Jul08 Jul15     (barker r)DAVIS DYLAN 120 10.00 5% 17.20    
6  SHORTSINTHEWINTER Oct16 Sep18 Aug21 Jul24 Jun26 (hennig mark)LUZZI J 120 15.00    
7  QUICK HAMMER Sep16 Jul30 Jul08 Oct29 Sep16 (summers chad)OLVER MADISON 113 3.50 11% 8.10    
 
AQU-3   11/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC12 FAST Fall Highweight Purse ($200K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOLD JOURNEY Oct12 Aug26 Jul29 Jun09 May13 (mott i)ORTIZ L 128 3.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of POLLY FREEZE by SUPER SAVER)
2  ROTKNEE Oct29 Sep15 Aug11 Jun09 May19 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 130 2.00 33% 2.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of IN SPITE OF MAMA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  COWAN Oct27 Oct14 Oct01 Sep22 May30 (ginter r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 130 15.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of TEMPERS FLAIR by SMART STRIKE)
4  DURANTE Oct27 Oct14 Sep16 Aug19 Aug02 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 134 1.80 41% 1.40    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of SEAHAWK GIRL by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
5  WIN FOR GOLD Oct29 Sep28 Sep04 Aug17 Jul15 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 124 4.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of COOL TEN GRAND by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  SIR ALFRED JAMES Nov04 Oct20 Sep30 Sep16 Sep05 (ginter raym)MCCARTHY TREVOR 130 10.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SUPER PHOEBE by MALABAR GOLD)
 
AQU-4   11/24/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 2 ALL PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  J D FACTOR Oct21         (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 119 4.00 20% 3.90    
  (by THE FACTOR out of SULLIVYN'S ROSE by BERNARDINI)
2  BOLD AMBITION         (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of SILVER DOLLAR DIVA by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
3  OTELLO         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 119 4.50    
  (by CURLIN out of ISABELLA SINGS by ESKENDEREYA)
4  THE HERO CODE         (mcgaughey claud)CANCEL ERIC 119 8.00    
  (by TAPIT out of PHOTOGRAPH by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  GUM ISLAND Oct01         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 15.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of STAGE STOP by VALID EXPECTATIONS)
6  FOR YOUR PLEASURE Oct21         (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 119 1.20 54% 0.80    
  (by ENTICED out of TRANQUIL SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
7  FLUFF THE PILLOW         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of ADJUST by AFFIRMED)
 
AQU-5   11/24/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARIAH'S FORTUNE Nov09 Oct06 Jul20 Jul04 May26 (toscano john )FRANCO MANUEL 124 2.00 53% 0.90    
2  TRADE SECRET Nov10 Oct06 Aug03 Jun22 May18 (pringle edmun)OLVER MADISON 115 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  VALLARAND Oct06 Sep11 Aug24 Jul02 Jun22 (jones ed)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 12.00    
4  CROWDING OUT Oct19 Sep09 Aug06 Jun18 May12 (falcone robert )DAVIS KATIE 122 4.50 14% 6.40    
5  MORE MANGO Oct28 Sep22 Aug31 Aug02 Jul09 (ferraro w)RUIZ ELISEO 117 15.00    
6  ITS COLD IN DEHERE Nov10 Oct06 Aug16 Aug03 Jun02 (toscano jo)RIVERA R 117 3.00 11% 7.90    
7  ALPINE QUEEN Oct20 Oct06 Aug20 May07 Apr06 (schett)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 6.00    
8  GRINGOTTS Nov09 Oct15 Aug16 Jul27 Jun22 (younghans w)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 5.00    
 
AQU-6   11/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MALIBU MOONSHINE Jul29 Feb05 Dec30 Dec03 Sep11 (baker charlton)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00 23% 3.30    
2  STONEWALL STAR Apr16 Feb18 Jan22 Dec30 Nov20 (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.00 33% 2.00    
3  CENTRE COURT CHAMP Oct31 Jul18 Jul01 May28 May08 (mosco robert)OCASIO M 120 12.00    
4  RACHEL'S ROCK Oct28 Oct12 Sep17 May18 Mar22 (david a)ORTIZ L 124 3.50 10% 8.60    
5  SHESALITTLE EDGY Feb24 Jan27 May19 Apr29 Mar26 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00    
SCR  SELF ISOLATION Nov03 Oct12 Sep10 Aug06 Jul01 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 8.00    
7  ROYAL POPPY Oct07 Sep02 Jun23 May20 Feb05 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00    
 
AQU-7   11/24/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CITIZEN MACK Mar18 Feb03 Aug13 Jul21   (englehart je)HARKIE K 124 4.00 27% 2.80    
2  BRAGGADOCIOUS Oct22 Sep14 Aug11 Jun22 May02 (hennig mark)DAVIS KATIE 124 8.00    
SCR  BURTON WAY Nov11 Oct15 Aug17 Jul30 Jun23 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 124 3.50    
4  THE ELUSIVE DRWONG Oct22 Sep28 Aug23     (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 122 15.00    
5  SCREAMING UNCLE Oct13 Aug31 Aug11 Jul02 May21 (englehart chri)ORTIZ L 122 2.50 51% 1.00    
6  GROWTH MINDSET Nov02 Oct13 Jan29 Dec17 Sep17 (bernardini juan)CANCEL ERIC 124 15.00    
SCR  TIMO Oct22 Sep28 Aug24 Jul28 Jan04 (potts wayne)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 20.00    
8  IRON MAN JIMMY Oct13 Sep04 Oct13 Aug31   (summers chad)DAVIS DYLAN 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  VENGE Oct13 Jul01 May21 Apr21 Jan14 (ribaudo ro)RIVERA R 117 5.00    
 
AQU-8   11/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($90K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  FULL MOON MADNESS Oct07 Dec30 Nov06 Oct01 Sep03 (nevin miche)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 8.00    
SCR  TWELTH MAN Oct07 Sep28 Aug05 Jul01 Jun10 (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 8.00    
2  COLONEL VARGO Nov09 Sep17 Aug26 Jul23 Jul08 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 8.00    
SCR  TETSU Nov12 Oct28 Oct18 Aug18 Jul22 (jacobson david)LUZZI J 120 8.00    
SCR  DARK VECTOR Oct26 Aug25 Jul08 Jun10 May21 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 8.00    
SCR  OCEAN'S RESERVE Oct29 Oct07 Sep16 Sep02 Jul23 (gyarmati leah)DAVIS DYLAN 122 5.00    
5  DAUFUSKIE ISLAND Oct22 Sep02 Aug19 Jul22 Jun22 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  CAPONE Oct22 Sep16 Sep17 Aug13 Jul01 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 120 10.00    
7  WHO HOO THATS ME May19 Jan21 Dec10 Oct30 Sep23 (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.00 23% 3.30    
8  MARIACHI Sep21 Aug27 Jul15 Jun17 Nov26 (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 52% 0.90    
SCR  CAUSES TROUBLE Oct24 Sep20 Sep06 Aug28 Jul24 (wyner harold)ADORNO ABNER 120 15.00    
 
AQU-9   11/24/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 2 F PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DAME CATHERINE Nov02 Sep28       (levine)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 6.00 ★    
2  ALOTTA JAYS Oct20 Aug02       (schettino d)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 15.00    
3  SHE'S A LAKER Nov09 Jul29 Jul15     (david carlos )OLVER MADISON 114 30.00    
4  RUN FOR YOUR HONEY Nov02 Sep15 Aug16 Aug02 Jul14 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 119 1.40 72% 0.40    
5  BORNFORGREATNESS Nov09 Oct20 Sep15 Aug13   (hills a)DAVIS DYLAN 119 5.00 ★    
6  ARCHIVIST Nov02 Sep16 Aug27 Jul27   (chich)HERNANDEZ OMAR 119 20.00    
7  MOTHER MARY Nov09 Sep15 Sep01     (brown r)LUZZI J 119 15.00    
8  LOVE THYSELF Oct22 Aug27 Jul26     (hennig mark)DAVIS KATIE 119 8.00    
9  HOLDER CLOSE Nov02 Sep28 Aug24     (ferraro w)RUIZ ELISEO 114 15.00 ★    
10  LONE STAR WILDCAT Nov09 Oct20       (contessa c)CANCEL ERIC 119 12.00    
11  LET'S CONNECT Oct20         (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.