Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belmont At The Big A
Saturday - October 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BAQ-1   WIN (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/6)-(5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/6)-(5/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/6)-(5/4/7)-(6/5/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
BAQ-2   WIN (5/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/7)-(5/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/7)-(5/4/7)-(5/4/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/7)-(6/5/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/4/7)-(6/5/4)-(6/5/9/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
BAQ-3   WIN (6/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/4)-(6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/4)-(6/5/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/4)-(6/5/9/8)-(8/2/1/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
BAQ-4   WIN (6/5/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/9/8)-(6/5/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/9/8)-(6/5/9/8)-(6/5/9/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/9/8)-(8/2/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/5/9/8)-(8/2/1/5)-(2/3/6/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
BAQ-5   WIN (8/2/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/2/1/5)-(8/2/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/2/1/5)-(8/2/1/5)-(8/2/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/2/1/5)-(2/3/6/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/2/1/5)-(2/3/6/1)-(9/5/4/1/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
BAQ-6   WIN (2/3/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/6/1)-(2/3/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/6/1)-(2/3/6/1)-(2/3/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/6/1)-(9/5/4/1/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/3/6/1)-(9/5/4/1/2)-(9/5/4/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
BAQ-7   WIN (9/5/4/1/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/5/4/1/2)-(9/5/4/1/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/5/4/1/2)-(9/5/4/1/2)-(9/5/4/1/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/5/4/1/2)-(9/5/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/5/4/1/2)-(9/5/4/6)-(8/6/12) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
BAQ-8   WIN (9/5/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/5/4/6)-(9/5/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/5/4/6)-(9/5/4/6)-(9/5/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/5/4/6)-(8/6/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
BAQ-9   WIN (8/6/12) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/6/12)-(8/6/7/10/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/12)-(8/6/7/10/12)-(8/6/7/10/12) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BAQ-1   10/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($38K) 3UP ALL PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UTAMARO Sep21 Aug30 Jul21 May29   (rice linda)ORTIZ L 120 6.00 12% 7.60    
2  MUNNY FOR NUTHIN Sep22 Aug30 Aug06 Jul01 May06 (miceli michael)DAVIS DYLAN 124 4.50    
3  ACADEMY CHOICE Aug03 Jun18 May13 Apr23   (begg j)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 15.00    
4  WAFLR Oct05 Jul26 Jun18 May13   (donk david)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 8.00    
5  KENTUCKY JOKER Jun25 Mar04 Jan28 Dec31 Nov19 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 0.60 61% 0.60    
6  SINALOA Sep18 Sep04 Aug03 Jul21 Jul08 (sells rachel)HARKIE K 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  PERFECT OUTCOME Sep21 Aug30 Dec31 Dec10   (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 15.00    
 
BAQ-2   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROGENY Sep16 Sep03       (weaver george)RUIZ ELISEO 114 15.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of CABBAGE KEY by A.P. INDY)
SCR  LA PICASITA Sep16 Jul08       (antonucci j)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 20.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of PICARDIA by STORMY ATLANTIC)
3  MATAGORA BAY Sep17         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 6.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of SKY WALK by SKYWALKER)
4  DON'T SAY IT Sep16         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 119 3.00 16% 5.40    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of FOREVER DISCREET by BERNARDINI)
5  VALUE AREA Sep17 Aug06       (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 119 3.50 50% 1.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of HER SMILE by INCLUDE)
6  GUN SONG         (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 119 6.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of NICOLE H by MR. GREELEY)
7  STREET VIEW Sep16         (weaver george)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00 12% 7.40    
  (by STREET BOSS out of VIEW by VICE REGENT)
 
BAQ-3   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITSALITTLEBITFUNNY May26 Mar18 Mar10 Jan14 Dec11 (sells)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 30.00    
2  GUN MAESTRO Sep01 Aug18 Jun18 Jun09 May21 (abreu fernando)USKE S 123 4.50    
3  M B'S MUNNING Sep17 Aug25 Aug13 Nov11   (potts wayne)LUZZI J 120 20.00    
4  WITH KNOW NAME Aug10 Oct30 Sep22 Aug26 Jul29 (morley thom)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  MAKAR Sep17 Jul07 Jun09 Apr23 Mar04 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 15% 5.70    
6  MORNING CUP Sep01 Jul01 May04 Apr21 Feb21 (d'angelo jose )ORTIZ L 121 0.50 58% 0.70    
 
BAQ-4   10/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($35K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEVIL'S CAY Oct08 Jul28 Jul07 May18 Mar24 (miceli michael)DAVIS DYLAN 118 15.00    
2  LAUGHING BOY Oct04 Sep06 Aug04 Jul02 Jun04 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 122 10.00    
3  WINNING CONNECTION Aug31 Jul22 Jul04 Jun04 May21 (dutrow rich)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 12.00    
4  ROCK THE WEEKEND Sep22 Aug10 Jul19 Jun10 May14 (shivma)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 20.00    
5  ANTHRACITE Aug24 Jul21 Jun23 May27 Apr29 (nevin mich)RIVERA R 119 6.00 7% 13.20    
6  GUNTOWN Oct01 Sep02 Aug13 Aug03 May13 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 124 1.80 59% 0.70    
7  JESTER'S SONG Sep22 Aug03 Jun24 May12 May05 (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 122 12.00    
8  BORN A GAMBLER Oct06 Sep03 Jul13 Jun25 Jun04 (levine bruce)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  COMPLETE AGENDA Aug24 Jul16 May21 Apr23 Mar31 (baker charlt)CASTELLANO J 124 3.50 6% 14.90    
SCR  GUT FEELING Oct07 Sep14 Aug12 Apr01 Jan28 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 124 8.00    
 
BAQ-5   10/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DONTBELATE Oct12 Aug05 Jul19 May18 Apr28 (persaud randi)RUIZ ELISEO 119 10.00 19% 4.30    
SCR  JUMPSTER Oct12 Aug06 Jun03 May20 May05 (persaud randi)SILVERA RUBEN 122 10.00    
2  FORTY TWO ACE Sep21 Jul19 Jun03 May13 Mar24 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 124 12.00 21% 3.70    
3  LORD GATLING Sep17 Aug03 Jul01 May13 Apr16 (pringl)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 20.00    
4  HANG TIGHT Oct05 Sep03 Aug02 Jul22 Jul04 (romero jes)RIVERA R 119 20.00    
5  DATESFREEDOM Oct05 Sep21 Aug25 Aug10 Jul03 (delauro )GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PRINCE OF PHAROAHS Aug23 Jul07 May29 May06 Apr07 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 124 2.00    
SCR  BOLD VICTORY Oct12 Jul13 Jun13 Apr12 Feb26 (miceli michael)DAVIS DYLAN 122 4.50    
8  COOL QUARTET Oct05 Sep08 Jul08 Jun24 Jun03 (noda orlando)ORTIZ JR 122 4.50 33% 2.10    
9  DURKIN'S CALL Oct05 Sep03 Aug06 Jul02 May04 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.50    
10  GOLDINI Sep30 Aug06 Jul27 Jun17 May20 (rodriguez rudy)LUZZI J 124 20.00    
 
BAQ-6   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 ALL PT- 3:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALEAH ALEAH Sep14         (ryerson t)RUIZ ELISEO 114 12.00 14% 6.30    
  (by MASTERY out of DILLY by FIRST SAMURAI)
2  UNION BULLDOG         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 119 2.50 30% 2.30    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of RUNNING DEBI C by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
3  FOR YOUR PLEASURE         (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 119 3.50 17% 5.00    
  (by ENTICED out of TRANQUIL SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
4  SPEED CONTROL         (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 119 8.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BLIZZARD BEACH by RACE DAY)
5  DOWNING STREET         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of HIGH SO CI by SCAT DADDY)
6  RATHMORE Oct01         (albertrani t)CASTELLANO J 119 4.00 16% 5.30    
  (by CUPID out of TEMPERATURE RUNNIN by STORMIN FEVER)
7  J D FACTOR         (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 119 5.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of SULLIVYN'S ROSE by BERNARDINI)
8  HAVE YOU HEARD         (brown bruc)RIVERA R 114 15.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FULL MOON FROLIC by VINDICATION)
 
BAQ-7   10/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($65K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BERLONE Oct05 Jan14 Dec03     (david carlos )OLVER MADISON 113 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  RALLY SQUIRREL Sep03 Aug18 Jun15 May24 Apr26 (gober)HERNANDEZ OMAR 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
3  MAGICAL WAYS Oct15 Aug10 Jul03 May13 Apr21 (sells rachel)DAVIS DYLAN 124 12.00    
4  WHAT'S UP DOC Aug26 Aug12 Jul22 Jun29 Jun18 (ginter r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 8.00 12% 7.70    
5  ICE ROAD Aug31 Aug12 Jul03 Jun09 Feb25 (d'angelo jose)FRANCO MANUEL 122 5.00 19% 4.10    
6  CLUBHOUSE Sep15 Aug17 Aug09 Jul08 Mar04 (rodriguez gu)CASTELLANO J 118 10.00    
7  BARON'S LEGACY Sep15 Jan06       (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 118 15.00    
8  MEMPHIS Aug12 Jul19 Jul01     (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 120 6.00    
9  THUNDERIAN Oct08 Sep16 Aug25 Aug12 Jul13 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 3.50 39% 1.50    
10  BROOKLYN DIAMONDS Sep22 Sep01 Jun15 Apr30 Feb24 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 124 3.00    
 
BAQ-8   10/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUALITY CHIC Sep28 Sep14 Aug20 Jun25 May28 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 8.00    
2  PADDINGTON Oct06 Aug18 Jul22 Jun29 May27 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00    
3  CLASSIC MARK Sep21 Aug24 Jul04 May20 Apr13 (rodriguez g)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 10.00    
4  CASCAIS Nov06 Oct01       (brown c)ORTIZ L 120 4.00 9% 10.60    
5  MACALLAN Feb11 Jun09 Apr09 Feb12 Jan14 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 124 3.50 26% 2.80    
6  LUNI SIMA Sep28 Jun10 May21 Apr14 Mar25 (walder pete)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  ROCCO STRONG Sep21 Aug10 Jun25 May27 Oct15 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 122 12.00    
8  SIGNATOR Oct06 Aug30 Aug05 Oct14 Sep16 (mcgaughey cl)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00    
9  CAPE TRAFALGAR (IRE) Sep02 Aug05 Jun25 Apr14 Nov19 (joseph saffie)FRANCO MANUEL 124 3.00 41% 1.50    
 
BAQ-9   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LA INDECENTE         (jimenez l)RUIZ ELISEO 114 20.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of GLOOMY I'M KNOT by D'WILDCAT)
2  PHOTO FINISH         (cruz jesus)LUZZI J 119 20.00    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of SUPER MAMA by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SCR  LOVE THYSELF Aug27 Jul26       (hennig mark)DAVIS KATIE 119 15.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of MISS NARCISSIST by FREUD)
4  MYSARIA         (hills a)DAVIS DYLAN 119 15.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of HOT LIAISON by LIAISON)
5  MY KINDA MISCHIEF Sep01 Aug09       (martin car)RIVERA R 114 12.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of OFF THE BOURBON by CURLIN)
6  BEACH CRUISER         (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 119 4.00 24% 3.10    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of CATCHA RISING STAR by RED GIANT)
7  TAVIN Sep28         (russell bri)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 5.00 ★    
  (by GIRVIN out of TASHMOO by CAIRO PRINCE)
8  BOOK OF WISDOM Sep28 Aug10 Jul14     (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.00 50% 1.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of TAPPIN'AT THE DOOR by TAPIT)
SCR  STORMY DISCO Sep15 Sep01       (dini mike)CARMOUCHE K 119 10.00    
  (by DISCO PARTNER out of SCATCAPADE by SCAT DADDY)
10  ASHBURN ALLEY         (breen j)RENDON JAIRO 119 8.00 ★    
  (by TAPITURE out of EXCLUSIVELY YOURS by DEERHOUND)
11  GOING FOR GLORY         (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 15.00    
  (by SKY MESA out of HIPSHOOTINMOMMA by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
12  MISS BOURBON         (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONNECT out of SAVASANA by SCATMANDU)
SCR  IN THE END Sep16         (sweezey kent)DAVIS DYLAN 119 15.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of BLACK ESCORT by SOUTHERN HALO)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.