Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Friday - June 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (6/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/2)-(6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/2)-(4/7/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/4/2)-(4/7/3)-(2/1/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-2   WIN (4/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/3)-(4/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/3)-(4/7/3)-(4/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/3)-(2/1/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/7/3)-(2/1/6)-(2/6/7/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-3   WIN (2/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/6)-(2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/6)-(2/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6)-(2/6/7/5)-(5/4/9/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-4   WIN (2/6/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/7/5)-(5/4/9/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/6/7/5)-(5/4/9/3)-(1/5/7/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ELP-5   WIN (5/4/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/9/3)-(5/4/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/9/3)-(5/4/9/3)-(5/4/9/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/9/3)-(1/5/7/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/4/9/3)-(1/5/7/6)-(8/2/10/3/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-6   WIN (1/5/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/7/6)-(1/5/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/7/6)-(1/5/7/6)-(1/5/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/7/6)-(8/2/10/3/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/5/7/6)-(8/2/10/3/9)-(8/7/4/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-7   WIN (8/2/10/3/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/2/10/3/9)-(8/2/10/3/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/2/10/3/9)-(8/2/10/3/9)-(8/2/10/3/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/2/10/3/9)-(8/7/4/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/2/10/3/9)-(8/7/4/3)-(10/9/3/2/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-8   WIN (8/7/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/4/3)-(8/7/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/4/3)-(8/7/4/3)-(8/7/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/7/4/3)-(10/9/3/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (10/9/3/2/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/9/3/2/5)-(10/9/3/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/9/3/2/5)-(10/9/3/2/5)-(10/9/3/2/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   06/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  APRIL'S NO FOOL Apr12 Aug03 Jun23 May09   (miller jerome)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
2  SHE'S GONE D'WILD Jun06 May02 Apr22 Mar15 Feb20 (barkley jason)PARKER L 118 10.00 10% 9.30    
3  JUDY'S WAY May26 Apr28 Mar11 Jan16 Dec22 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.80    
4  HASHTAG WINNER May27 Apr22 Apr13 Mar25 Feb16 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 118 2.50 18% 4.70    
5  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI May26 May11 Apr12 Mar02 Feb15 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 4.50    
6  SACRED BEAUTY May02 Mar20 Feb10 Jan15 Jan02 (roberson denni)CASTANON L 118 3.50 36% 1.80    
 
ELP-2   06/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SCARLET MISS         (macias adolfo)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of VON ROSENBERG by JOHANNESBURG)
SCR  Z INDY LINDY         (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
  (by TAPIZAR out of LINDZ WINZ by VRONSKY)
3  SOPHIE'S SHADOW         (gorostie)RODRIGUEZ A 114 15.00 5% 17.20    
  (by TEXAS RED out of DEDICATION (FR) by HIGHEST HONOR (FR))
4  MYSTICAL CHANT         (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 35% 1.90    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of MUSICAL MYSTERY by CONCERTO)
5  SARATOGA SECRET         (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of SISTER by FORT LARNED)
6  BOSSY BRUIN GAL         (o'neill dou)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 4.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of MISS SAMMY by TALE OF EKATI)
7  CANDY LOVER         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 3.50 23% 3.30    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TAURASI by MINESHAFT)
8  RACONTEUSE         (wilkes r)BEJARANO R 119 6.00    
  (by MITOLE out of FREE REIN by UNBRIDLED)
 
ELP-3   06/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PATTERN BET May04 Apr01 Mar10 Feb20 Feb03 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 29% 2.50    
2  BALI DREAMIN May27 May20 Feb19 Feb05 Jul16 (wong jonathan)NAVAS YOEL 118 2.50 35% 1.90    
3  JE SUIS RAPIDE May13 May02 Apr19 Apr01 Feb25 (king l)CASTANON L 123 3.50    
4  SUNDAY GRACE May28 Sep13 Jul09 May14 May04 (hernandez rey)SAEZ LUIS 123 4.00    
5  AWESOME LAWSON Jun08 May28 Apr29 Apr07 Mar09 (vesty clark)MIRANDA ROGELIO 125 8.00    
6  MUSICMANSANDY May02 Apr14 Mar18 Mar12 Mar03 (estvanko richard)MOJICA O 118 3.00 8% 10.90    
 
ELP-4   06/23/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HIGH FRONT Jun21 May19 Apr21 May29 May05 (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 125 2.50    
2  AGENT PETER GRAVES May29 May02 Mar04 Jan19 Dec24 (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 121 5.00 33% 2.00    
3  MISTER MMMMM Jun01 May02 Apr08 Mar05 Feb11 (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00    
4  RED HORNET Jun01 May20 Apr13 Mar25 Jan28 (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 20.00    
5  ALL IN SYNC May02 Apr08 Feb18 Oct08 Sep10 (hernandez rey)BEJARANO R 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  GREGORY'S PRIDE May29 Apr21 Feb05 Nov05 Sep10 (d'amato ph)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 24% 3.10    
7  WILLTORUN May02 Apr08 Feb25 Jan14 Dec17 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 6.00 16% 5.20    
8  DIAMOND CITY May29 May02 Apr08 Mar30 Mar10 (hernandez rey)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
SCR  VULCAN May05 Mar17 Feb25 Jan28 Jan06 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 2.50    
SCR  BROKEN RIB May25 Feb12 Jan16 Dec10 Nov23 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00    
SCR  BAYTOWN BEAR May29 May16 Apr08 Mar18 Dec10 (mcentee paul)MCENTEE GRACE 121 8.00    
 
ELP-5   06/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REPREHEND May25 Apr26 Feb04 Dec31 Nov13 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
SCR  WINGER Jun04 Jan14 Nov26     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
3  SPEED INSTITUTE Oct21 Sep17       (toye lin)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  TWO RIVERS OVER May25 May06 Mar26 Feb25 Jan21 (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50 22% 3.50    
5  ABSOLUTE COURAGE May26 May14 Jan27 Dec18 Nov18 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 1.60 34% 1.90    
6  PHILHARMONIC Jun01 Oct14 Aug20     (zito p)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
7  MATLOCK (IRE) May12 Apr26 Mar10 Feb10   (estvanko richard)MOJICA O 118 12.00    
8  PATROLMAN Jun04 May14 Apr21 Feb04 Jan07 (claire alexis)BEJARANO R 125 6.00    
9  TEXCOCO Feb24 Feb10 Jan21 Aug13   (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 15% 5.80    
 
ELP-6   06/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KANTEX May04 Apr22 Mar19     (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00 66% 0.50    
2  HEADLAND May29 Apr21 Mar02 Jan14 Oct26 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
SCR  ATLANTIC STRIKE May28 Apr29 Mar30 Mar04 Jan12 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00    
4  JETS A GINNIN Apr30 Mar31 Feb26 Jan29 Dec10 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 5.00    
5  ROCK STAR PARKING Jan14 Jan01 Dec21 Nov30 Nov02 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  QUICK MUNNY May28 Apr29 Jan14 Dec17 Aug19 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  LOVE OF MY HEART May13 Jun25 May05 Mar19 Jan29 (forster gra)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT Jun11 May14 Apr29 Apr12 Mar24 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 111 6.00    
 
ELP-7   06/23/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LARK'S MISCHIEF May28 Apr08 Mar03 Jan21 Dec10 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 6.00    
2  B D VALESKI May19 Apr21 Mar30 Mar10 Feb10 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 123 5.00 9% 9.80    
3  COUNTERSTRIKE May19 Mar10 Feb24 Jan28 Jun23 (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 123 10.00 8% 11.80    
SCR  MOON CAT May17 Apr21 Mar11 Feb04 Jan07 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 118 15.00    
5  PATTON'S WAR May13 Apr21 Mar18     (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 6.00    
6  CADILLAC CANDY Aug19 May19 Apr28     (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
7  TRUST DADDY May19 Apr21 Dec02 Nov20 Sep14 (o'dwyer jere)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 12.00    
8  FAVORITE OUTLAW Apr29 Apr01 Mar05 Sep14 Aug20 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 3.00 53% 0.90    
9  ARABIAN PRINCE May19 Apr26 Feb03 Jan15 Dec08 (barnett b)LEPAROUX R 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
10  BRITERDAYZAHEAD May21 Apr16 Sep03     (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.00 9% 10.40    
11  FADETHENOISE May20 Apr16 Aug19 Jul16 Jun09 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
SCR  ZARTOWNIS May23 Jul22 Mar26     (devaux cherie)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 12.00    
SCR  RED HOT ROD Apr21 Mar25 May01     (hernandez rey)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
SCR  AMANI'S EAGLE May26 May12 Apr13 Nov12 Oct22 (barkley jaso)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 20.00    
 
ELP-8   06/23/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($16K) Purse ($62K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LIKE A SALTSHAKER May14 Mar10 Jan01 Dec16 Nov09 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 15.00    
2  SOLIDIFY Jun10 May13 May04 Mar31 Mar10 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 113 12.00    
3  TETSU May25 May04 Apr06 Dec31 Dec11 (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  ALEXANDROS May04 Apr07 Jan01 Nov12 Oct15 (duncan tr)TORRES A 118 6.00 11% 8.00    
5  SOARING BIRD Jun10 May13 Apr19 Mar10 Feb09 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00    
6  LAMUTANAATTY Jun10 May06 Apr22 Apr02 Mar12 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00    
7  BEVERLY PARK Apr14 Mar31 Mar24 Mar15 Feb22 (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.50 30% 2.30    
8  SLAM DUNK SERMON Jun10 May13 Apr15 Mar23 Mar10 (vance d)LANERIE J 123 2.00 34% 2.00    
 
ELP-9   06/23/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAG LADY May20         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of BAGHDARIA by ROYAL ACADEMY)
2  BOLT'S BROAD Feb08 Dec30 Dec03 Oct29 Oct09 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00 7% 13.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of AWESOME BROAD by MR. BROAD BLADE)
3  BOLTORO Apr23 Mar18 Feb09 Dec14 Oct14 (casse mar)TORRES A 118 4.00 17% 5.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of ELANDESS by SCAT DADDY)
4  CHURCH SERVICE May18 Mar26 Mar03 Jan14 May01 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 20.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of ROBI JO by LEMON DROP KID)
5  WORDS OF PRAISE May20 Nov06 Oct16 Sep13   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  ENGLISH CHARM Nov16         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of LINDA by SCAT DADDY)
7  MY TALLULAH Apr07         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of CHIT CHATTER by LOST SOLDIER)
SCR  BEL ROSSO Apr19 Sep03 Aug14     (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of TIZ THE KEY by TIZNOW)
9  PURE COUNTRY Apr28 Mar12 Jun22 May29 May04 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 125 4.50 24% 3.10    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of HONEY LAKE by HONEYLAND)
10  FRONTAL ATTACK Apr19         (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 32% 2.20    
  (by WAR FRONT out of LADY OF KYUSHU by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  SAHLABIYA Apr28 Mar12 Jul24 Jun17 May01 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 2.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of ORCHARD BEACH by TAPIT)
SCR  LEMON BOMB Oct30 Oct08       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of BITTER LEMON by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  RESOURCE         (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of REMIT by HUCKSTER)
SCR  GLAMOUR ANNA May13 Apr23       (navarrete ann)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of GLAMOUR N GLORY by NEWSPROBE)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.