Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Monday - March 13, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/6)-(5/1/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/1/6)-(5/1/3/6)-(5/1/3/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/1/6)-(4/6/2/7/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/1/6)-(4/6/2/7/3)-(2/6/7/1/8) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
MVR-2   WIN (4/6/2/7/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/6/2/7/3)-(4/6/2/7/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/6/2/7/3)-(4/6/2/7/3)-(4/6/2/7/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/6/2/7/3)-(2/6/7/1/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/6/2/7/3)-(2/6/7/1/8)-(4/6) 50 $0.50 $25.00 
MVR-3   WIN (2/6/7/1/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/1/8)-(2/6/7/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/1/8)-(2/6/7/1/8)-(2/6/7/1/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/6/7/1/8)-(4/6) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (2/6/7/1/8)-(4/6)-(1/8/2) 30 $0.50 $15.00 
MVR-4   WIN (4/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/6)-(4/6/2/3/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (4/6)-(4/6/2/3/5)-(4/6/2/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6)-(1/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/6)-(1/8/2)-(1/9/10/7/2) 30 $0.50 $15.00 
MVR-5   WIN (1/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/8/2)-(1/8/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/8/2)-(1/8/2/5)-(1/8/2/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/8/2)-(1/9/10/7/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/8/2)-(1/9/10/7/2)-(2/1/5/7/8) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
MVR-6   WIN (1/9/10/7/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/9/10/7/2)-(1/9/10/7/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/9/10/7/2)-(1/9/10/7/2)-(1/9/10/7/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/9/10/7/2)-(2/1/5/7/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/9/10/7/2)-(2/1/5/7/8)-(1/10/2) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
MVR-7   WIN (2/1/5/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/1/5/7/8)-(2/1/5/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/1/5/7/8)-(2/1/5/7/8)-(2/1/5/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/1/5/7/8)-(1/10/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
MVR-8   WIN (1/10/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/10/2)-(1/10/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/10/2)-(1/10/2/3)-(1/10/2/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   03/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 3UP M/F PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRACING NASTY Jan19 Jun02 May21 Apr02 Feb18 (reed r)GONZALEZ ALEX 124 3.00 22% 3.60    
2  LOVE'S TAVITO Feb22 Feb07 Jan19 Jan05 Dec28 (lopez jacinto)DIAZ I 124 12.00    
3  VERY WEALTHY Dec29 Dec08 Nov21 Oct29 Sep30 (lucas wayne)RIVERA R 124 4.00 ★    
4  KARMA GHIA Jan12 Nov27 Oct24 Oct07 Sep15 (lucas wayne)CEDILLO MAURO 111 5.00    
5  HOLIDAY DECISION Jan26 Jan13 Sep15 Aug14 Jul01 (delacr)BATISTA ALBERTO 116 2.00 26% 2.90    
6  UNDERCOVER LADY Feb22 Dec30 Nov20 Oct17   (jo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LIAM'S QUALITY Jan09         (west aaro)BERMUDEZ E 116 6.00 18% 4.60    
 
MVR-2   03/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($27.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THRU THE VINE Jan30 Jan09 Dec28 Dec08 Nov10 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 119 4.50    
SCR  DAVID'S GEM Jan28 Dec22 Dec01 Nov09 Oct07 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 119 4.50    
2  LATIN SPICE Feb23 Jul14 Jun11 May24 May09 (dacosta jason)DIAZ I 124 8.00 8% 12.10    
3  ESCAPE VELOCITY Nov23 Nov17 Oct26 Oct04 Sep13 (treharne )HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  ODIE Feb08 Jan10 Dec07 Nov07 Oct10 (patter)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 3.00 47% 1.20    
SCR  ATOMIC TONE Feb23 Jan24 Dec27 Dec05 Nov14 (rone penny)RIVERA R 124 6.00    
6  GRAYWING Jan17 Jan02 Dec13 Nov14 Jul09 (radosevich je)BARBARAN ERIK 124 4.00 11% 8.50    
7  SO DIALED IN Dec06 Nov12 Oct10 Sep27 Sep05 (skerrett jeffrey)PEREZ E 124 6.00 5% 18.40    
8  SAINT GOAR Jan28 Jan03 Dec20 Dec05 Nov07 (pappada julie )HOUGHTON D 124 5.00    
 
MVR-3   03/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($6.5K) Purse ($14.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TERRIFIC LADY Dec05 Nov06 Oct17 Oct03 Sep13 (robilla)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 6.00    
1A  SEA MONSTER Feb22 Jan27 Jan06 Oct08 Sep05 (sullivan elliot)REYES FRANK 124 6.00 7% 13.40    
2  HERO'S DAUGHTER Feb20 Feb01 Jan24 Jan05 Dec28 (morales sau)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 5.00 33% 2.00    
3  IRON WILMA Feb22 Feb06 Jan30 Jan09 Dec28 (fiesman robe)GONZALEZ KEVIN 126 10.00    
4  LA MAMA CHULA Jan13 Nov30 Sep28 Sep18   (chapman james)CEDILLO MAURO 119 8.00    
5  SPEEDY FIRE Jan24 Jan02 Dec07 Nov22 Oct24 (urieta jo)BRICENO M 119 10.00    
6  LELAWALA Feb20 Jan19 Jan22 Jan01   (buttigieg kevi)GONZALEZ A 124 4.00 25% 3.00    
7  SIS BOOM BOB Feb09 Feb01 Dec28 Nov30 Nov10 (esquivel jes)MARCANO Y 119 3.00 9% 10.00    
8  CURIOSITY KILLS Feb22 Feb07 Jan09 Dec07 Nov28 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 4.50 5% 19.00    
9  LUCKYWISE Feb20 Dec28 Nov22 Nov01 Sep20 (spiess m)YARANGA Y 124 15.00    
 
MVR-4   03/13/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($30.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOHN'S ROCK Feb08 Jan24 Dec08 Nov18 Oct13 (vecchio car)SEVERINO VICTOR 123 2.50    
2  FIRST CITIZEN Feb20 Feb08 Jan10 Jul18 Jun05 (vecchio caryn)CEDILLO MAURO 118 8.00 ★    
3  CHIEF RANDEL Feb23 Jan10 Dec22 Dec12 Nov21 (romero a)HOUGHTON D 123 10.00 ★    
4  ENERGIZER Dec06 Nov23 Nov06 Oct24 Oct10 (trehar)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 3.00 49% 1.00    
5  DISCLOSURE Oct14 Sep19 Aug31 Aug17 Aug04 (skerrett jeffrey)AVILES YAN 123 5.00 ★    
6  COMPLY (NZ) Jan28 Dec22 Oct14 Sep27 Sep08 (rone penny)RIVERA R 123 4.00 26% 2.80    
7  MIDNIGHT J J Feb09 Jan07 Nov17 Oct13 Sep01 (brownfield cl)BRACHO A 123 6.00    
 
MVR-5   03/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($4K) Purse ($11.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COWGIRL KIMMIE Feb22 Feb06 Jan09 Dec08 Nov11 (sullivan elliot)REYES FRANK 124 2.50 38% 1.70    
1A  WESTLODGE INTRIGUE Feb12 Jan11 Dec13 Dec05 Nov08 (robillard juli)HOUGHTON D 124 2.50 ★    
2  TAPALONG Feb02 Jan28 Oct05 Jun02 May14 (londono odin )CEDILLO MAURO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  LEADING INDICATOR Feb27 Feb07 Jan19 Jan03 Dec13 (welsh r)PAUCAR E 124 20.00    
SCR  ROSE RING Feb21 Feb01 Jan19 Jan03 Dec08 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 126 5.00 7% 13.10    
5  BEAUTY DAY Oct05 Sep12 Aug17 Jul22 Jun11 (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 6.00 ★    
6  ROMANTIC JEWEL Feb21 Feb01 Jan19 Jan11   (bird danny)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 20.00    
7  BEND THE KNEE Feb27 Feb01 Dec13 Nov30 Jun21 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 3.00    
8  CHARGAREE Feb21 Feb06 Jan19 Dec28 Dec08 (zirche)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 4.50 29% 2.50    
9  FLYING BUSINESS Feb27 Feb07 Jan19 Dec31 Dec16 (hurley mary )KEISER CHELSEY 124 8.00    
 
MVR-6   03/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($8K) Purse ($17.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PAT DADDY Feb28 Jan26 Jan10 Jan02 Dec15 (rivera nestor)PEREZ E 124 4.00 27% 2.80    
1A  THE COOKIE MAN Jan24 Jan16 Jan03 Dec08 Nov29 (rivera nesto)TAPARA BRANDON 124 4.00    
2  MAGICAL EXPRESS Feb15 Jan26 Dec28 Nov28 Nov09 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 3.50 6% 14.90    
3  EL BOHEMIO Feb03 Jan04 Nov21 Oct23 Oct07 (esquivel jes)MARCANO Y 119 15.00    
4  SOUTHERN WILL Feb20 Dec06 Nov13 Oct03 Aug17 (reed r)GONZALEZ ALEX 124 12.00    
5  CLAW Feb20 Feb07 Jan18 Jan02 Dec15 (barnes a)DIAZ I 124 3.00    
6  TOO LEGIT Feb22 Feb01 Jan18 Dec28 Dec14 (robillard jul)CEDILLO MAURO 119 10.00    
7  ATTUCK Feb22 Jan27 Jan04 Dec17 Dec07 (patters)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 5.00 14% 6.30    
8  SAVAGE NATION Jan26 Jan10 Dec07 Nov27 Oct26 (pizzurro )HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 124 20.00    
9  ENJOY BASEBALL Feb08 Jan16 Jan02 Dec20 Aug31 (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 15.00 16% 5.20    
10  CUMBER Feb08 Jan03 Dec20 Nov08 Oct22 (urieta johann)BRACHO A 124 8.00 14% 6.30    
 
MVR-7   03/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GARRETT Feb22 Jan11 Dec12 Nov23 Jun06 (gallow)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 6.00 18% 4.70    
2  HIP HIP HOORAY Jan30 Jan11 Dec29 Nov29 Oct29 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 124 3.00 29% 2.40    
SCR  NEBULOSA Feb13 Jan28 Jan17 Dec22 Dec06 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 119 12.00    
4  EL MARRO Feb20 Jan26 Jan10 Dec01 Nov07 (sc)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 10.00    
5  WILD OX Feb13 Dec21 Dec01 Nov01 Sep13 (gorostieta ciri)REYES FRANK 124 3.50 16% 5.30    
6  SHANGHAI PRINCE Feb20 Jan26 Dec27 Dec03 Oct31 (cline robert)ROSARIO L 124 4.50    
7  FIRST NAVY ADMIRAL Feb23 Jan11 Dec21 Dec07 Nov21 (patters)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 4.00 11% 8.10    
8  KINGOFTHEBUCKEYE Jan11 Dec12 Nov09 Oct24 Oct04 (ruberto louis )DIAZ I 124 8.00 6% 17.10    
 
MVR-8   03/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INDY CARR Feb23 Feb14 Aug18 Jul11 Jun28 (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 118 1.60 30% 2.30    
  (by INDY WIND out of MISS CARRERA by MEMO (CHI))
2  RUNAWAY RUSSELL Feb23 Feb08 Jan26 Jan09 Dec07 (maddox racha)GONZALEZ KEVIN 126 6.00 17% 4.90    
  (by MUCH THE BEST out of RUN DON'T HIDE by RUN AWAY AND HIDE)
3  DANES HEART Feb16 Jan09 Jun29 May31 May21 (vazquez ivan)YARANGA Y 126 15.00 ★    
  (by KENTUCKY DANE out of HOPEFUL HEART by LOST SOLDIER)
4  BIG TIME FLIRT Jan24 Dec22 Nov29 Oct05 Sep19 (erdel john)DIAZ I 126 20.00    
  (by WILLIAM'S KITTEN out of SMALL TOWN FLIRT by PURGE)
SCR  ATILANO'S THUNDER Dec07 Nov09 Oct05 Sep19 Jul28 (brown t)BRACHO A 126 20.00    
  (by MAGNIFICENT MAX (GB) out of TIZ OUR DREAM by TIZNOW)
SCR  SOL OF VAQUERO Feb08 Jul28       (campbell l)DIAZ R 126 20.00    
  (by VAQUERO out of SHE'S SO HAPPY by YOUR ABC'S)
SCR  BIRD GONE WEST Feb23 Jan24       (west m)PEREZ E 118 10.00 ★    
  (by BIRDRUN out of PAHLMUHREE by GONE WEST)
8  ALDUIN Feb16 Feb08       (vazquez iv)SMITH DIOGDINABI 126 20.00    
  (by CRIMSON COMIC out of LESLIE GARDENS by FORESTRY)
9  A K A FIBBER MCGEE Feb16 Jan04 Sep21 Sep07   (rone penny)RIVERA R 126 12.00    
  (by LIGHTNIN N THUNDER out of JOAQUINA by HOLY BULL)
10  GRANDE RED Feb08 Jan09 Dec07 Sep12 Aug10 (guciardo robert)VELEZ J 126 2.00 29% 2.40    
  (by ANIMO DE VALEROSO out of PRECOCIOUS by EXPLOIT)
11  MY HOMBRE Jun29 Jun14       (trehar)BATISTA ALBERTO 126 20.00    
  (by GLOBAL POWER out of ORIENTAL BELLA by CAPE TOWN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.