Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - June 13, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/4)-(5/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4)-(5/2/4)-(7/1/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/4)-(7/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(7/1/2)-(1/5/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/2)-(7/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1/2)-(7/1/2)-(7/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/1/2)-(1/5/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/1/2)-(1/5/7)-(1/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/7)-(1/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/7)-(1/5/7)-(1/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/7)-(1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/5/7)-(1/4)-(1/2/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/4)-(1/4/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/4)-(1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/4)-(1/2/4)-(4/5/7) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/4)-(1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/4)-(4/5/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/2/4)-(4/5/7)-(5/11/7/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/7)-(4/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/7)-(4/5/7)-(4/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/7)-(5/11/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-8   WIN (5/11/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/11/7/1)-(5/11/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/11/7/1)-(5/11/7/1)-(5/11/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BROTHER RICE May10 Mar15 Feb15 Jan18   (pino michael)TORRES A 118 1.40 34% 2.00    
2  BAJAN BOY May11         (tomlinson mi)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 10.00    
3  SUNDAY SPIRIT May05 Mar17 Mar07 Feb09 Dec09 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 41% 1.40    
4  GOLDEN BUCK May26 Apr27 Mar28 Nov27 Sep22 (castanon jose )CASTANON L 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  TWIRLING TROILLET May26 Apr05 Mar23 Feb23 Dec09 (milligan )TORRES A 118 4.00    
6  HEZMORETHANREADY May01 Apr05 Mar01 Feb21 Jan27 (house gary)MORALES EDGAR 124 10.00    
 
CD-2   06/13/2024 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAMAY (PER) Jun10 Apr20 Nov21 Oct30 Oct17 (arias alfonso)CHUAN MARTIN 122 8.00    
2  STIR CRAZY May03 Apr11 Feb25 Dec07 Nov12 (maker michael )ORTIZ L 122 2.00 26% 2.80    
3  JOIN THE DANCE May03 Mar23 Feb17 Jan20 Dec23 (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 122 3.00    
4  VALENTINA DAY Apr21 Mar08 Aug19 Jul23 Jun15 (toye kara )CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
5  CAROLINE STREET May03 Aug04       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 45% 1.20    
6  ROYAL TAKE CHARGE Apr26 Aug19 Jul08 May27 Apr21 (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 8.00    
SCR  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE) May24 Dec23 Nov03 Sep29 Jul08 (meah m)ORTIZ L 122 3.00    
 
CD-3   06/13/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPIRALIZER         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 29% 2.50    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of JOTOWN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  ASLEEP AT EIGHT         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FROSTED out of STORMY SKY by SKY MESA)
3  MORLOCK         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ST. JOHN'S RIVER by INCLUDE)
SCR  EL CORDOBES (IRE)         (chavez manue)CALLEJA ANDRES 112 15.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of GRAMS FUTURE by RAISON D'ETAT)
5  HEDGE         (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of QIAONA by WILKO)
6  CHARLIE TOLU May24 May01 Apr17     (hancock ja)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 2.00    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of LADY TULA by BIG SURF)
7  MO HAIR SAM May09 Apr21 Apr10     (hancock a)ORTIZ L 119 4.50 48% 1.10    
  (by MO TOWN out of SHANGHAI LADY by JUDY'S KING)
 
CD-4   06/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TARTUFO Apr14 Mar07 Jan26 Dec21 Nov25 (vaccarezza car)ORTIZ L 118 1.40 64% 0.60    
2  COX CANYON Apr14 Nov19 Oct28 Sep15 Apr26 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
3  IMPROBABLE STORY Jun05 May10 Nov01 Sep27 Jul06 (king l)RIQUELME J 118 20.00    
4  COOL QUARTET May23 May01 Jan05 Dec01 Nov12 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00    
5  KHOZAN'S SUCCESS May26 Apr14 Mar31 Jan07 Nov03 (vanden bri)COHEN DAVID 118 8.00 5% 18.40    
SCR  SHORTLIST May23 Apr27 Apr17 Mar22 Mar07 (cano mun)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
7  CLASSIC KING May01 Apr21 Mar10 Feb17 Dec29 (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   06/13/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($141K) 3 ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SKETCH (IRE) May19 May01       (murphy con)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 36% 1.80    
2  HOLD MY BOURBON May12 Apr19 Mar23     (reed r)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
3  BEAR RIVER May17 May01 Mar24 Mar02 Feb13 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 2.50 ★    
4  RUN CARSON May17 Apr26       (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 17% 5.00    
SCR  SMOKEY SMOKEY May19 Mar23 Mar08 Dec08 Oct20 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00    
6  OKIRO May18 Mar23 Mar02 Dec21 Nov03 (garoffalo)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00    
7  PRINCE OF POWER Apr06 Mar23 May03 Apr20 Apr07 (vosler eugen)CRUZ JUAN 118 20.00    
 
CD-6   06/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPARKLE OF HOPE May23 Dec13 Nov08 Sep30 Aug27 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 2.00 31% 2.20    
2  CRACKALACKING May23 Apr17 Jun11 May13 Mar25 (hamilton sar)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 4.50 15% 5.70    
3  TELL ME WHEN Oct19 Sep04 Aug07 Jun11 May11 (lovell michell)ASHTON GAVIN 123 3.50    
4  JE SUIS RAPIDE Jun05 May23 May11 Jun23 May13 (king l)RIQUELME J 123 5.00 5% 19.00    
5  ADDICTED TO LOVE May21 Apr08 Nov30 Nov15 Oct30 (roggenkamp ed)MACHADO LUAN 123 12.00    
6  BAYTOWN LOVELY May16 Apr17 Feb07 Jan03 Dec06 (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 118 3.00    
 
CD-7   06/13/2024 4950ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($63K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOU'S LEGACY May04 Apr13 Mar30 Mar16 Nov25 (andrade hugo)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 3.50    
SCR  FORCED ERRORS         (zito nich)BEALMEAR C 111 12.00    
SCR  BADGE OF WAR Apr26 Mar01 Nov14 Oct03   (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
4  PEEK May11 Nov24 Oct06 Sep03 Jul07 (arnold r)LANERIE J 124 3.00 47% 1.10    
5  REMARKABLE MO Jun01 May04 Nov24 Oct27   (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 124 6.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  AIR IT OUT Jun02 May11 Mar16 Feb24 Jan20 (desormeaux)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00    
7  ACCIDENT May18 Apr24 Apr11 Mar30 Mar16 (short thomas)CALLEJA ANDRES 117 12.00 6% 16.70    
8  BOLD AMBITION Apr14 Nov24       (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
 
CD-8   06/13/2024 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPARTAN QUEEN Mar21 Feb15 Jan25 Dec30 Nov09 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  YARBOROUGH May04 Apr04 Mar01 Jan21 Nov23 (reed r)BEJARANO R 124 12.00    
3  EVITA May24 Apr27 Mar16 Jan21 Jan03 (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 124 20.00    
4  ROBIN SAGE May23 Apr27 Oct27 Oct01 Sep07 (medina rober)TORRES A 124 20.00    
5  MRS. ASTOR Apr26 Apr06 Sep03 Jul22 Jun03 (thomas jonatha)ORTIZ L 124 2.50 36% 1.80    
SCR  MARIA'S REVENGE May23 Apr24 Mar09 Feb10 Dec31 (sancal mura)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 20.00    
7  MOVIN' ON UP Mar23 Mar03 Dec28 Sep13 Aug20 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 17% 4.80    
SCR  MO SHIRO Jun25 May29 May02 Mar02 Feb05 (walden william)MACHADO LUAN 124 8.00    
SCR  CAIRO STREET May10 Dec09 Oct11 Sep13 Aug13 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 12.00    
SCR  JANEY CREED Apr25 Mar21 Feb22 Jan24 Dec13 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 118 10.00    
11  TARNEEMA Apr25 Feb09 Dec31     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  WITS AND WAGERS Nov12 Oct18 Sep03 Aug19 Jul15 (oliver vic)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 4.00    
SCR  BEST SELLER May09 Apr10 Jun16 Apr21 Mar19 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.