Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Thursday - April 25, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (5/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/2)-(5/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/8/2)-(5/8/2)-(5/8/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/8/2)-(7/12/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/8/2)-(7/12/4/3)-(5/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
KEE-2   WIN (7/12/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/12/4/3)-(7/12/4/3/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
KEE-3   WIN (5/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/6)-(5/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/6)-(5/8/4/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/6)-(5/8/4/2)-(6/9/10) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
KEE-4   WIN (5/8/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/4/2)-(5/8/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/4/2)-(5/8/4/2)-(5/8/4/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/8/4/2)-(6/9/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/8/4/2)-(6/9/10)-(3/5/2/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-5   WIN (6/9/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/9/10)-(6/9/10/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/10)-(6/9/10/5/8)-(6/9/10/5/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/9/10)-(3/5/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/9/10)-(3/5/2/1)-(5/7/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-6   WIN (3/5/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/2/1)-(3/5/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/2/1)-(3/5/2/1)-(3/5/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/2/1)-(5/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2/1)-(5/7/4)-(9/5/4/11/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-7   WIN (5/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/4)-(5/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/4)-(5/7/4)-(5/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/4)-(9/5/4/11/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/7/4)-(9/5/4/11/8)-(10/1/9/5/7) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
KEE-8   WIN (9/5/4/11/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/5/4/11/8)-(9/5/4/11/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/5/4/11/8)-(9/5/4/11/8)-(9/5/4/11/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/5/4/11/8)-(10/1/9/5/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
KEE-9   WIN (10/1/9/5/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/1/9/5/7)-(10/1/9/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/1/9/5/7)-(10/1/9/5/7)-(10/1/9/5/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/25/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($47K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TRAP LINE Mar07 Jan20 Dec08     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
2  BOAT HOUSE Apr06 Mar21 Dec08     (galindo-torr)CALLEJA ANDRES 111 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CONFLICTED Mar14 Jan28       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
4  TRUE FAITH Feb19         (brisset rodol)ORTIZ JR 118 1.80    
5  SURFACE TO AIR Nov24 Nov01 Oct06 Sep03 Aug01 (miller darrin)PRAT FLAVIEN 126 3.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  MAIN LINE CIPHER Feb21 Jan25 Jan11 Nov22 May04 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 2.50    
7  CAN'T YOU SEE Feb09         (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 15.00    
8  UNCLE TUFFY         (pinzon maria)AYALA ISAIAS 118 20.00 25% 2.90    
 
KEE-2   04/25/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAVENSHIRE         (rutledge )LEPAROUX R 116 30.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of GROGGER by PURIM)
2  MALEVAJE         (seglin e)AYALA ISAIAS 119 30.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of REGAL SONG by NOBLE MISSION (GB))
3  CHADO Apr05         (mccutchen jas)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of ORIOLE by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
4  CHEVAL DE GUERRE         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 20% 4.10    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of CHAMPAGNE DIET by DECLARATION OF WAR)
5  BRIGHT SKITTLE         (arnold george )PRAT FLAVIEN 119 8.00 ★    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of HARBOR LIGHTS by SHACKLEFORD)
6  AMERICAN CITY         (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 119 30.00    
  (by THE BIG BEAST out of SKY PALACE by PALACE)
7  MONTEREY BAY (NZ)         (ward a)ORTIZ L 119 1.20 37% 1.70    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of BOLA DE CRISTAL by GALILEO)
8  THE TONER         (caramori caio)ROSARIO JOEL 119 20.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ULTIMATE SHOPPER by YES IT'S TRUE)
SCR  GRAYDARIA         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 30.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of GRANDARIA by CURLIN)
10  BAYTOWN BARACUS Apr05         (mcentee paul)MACHADO LUAN 119 30.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of SANTINA DOND by EL PRADO (IRE))
11  MADROC         (lightner m)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of HOLLY HUNDY by YES IT'S TRUE)
12  INTO DIAMONDS         (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 20% 3.90    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of DIAMOND SPARKLES by WAR FRONT)
SCR  SPIRIT RAGS         (salas feli)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of OCTOBER BRIDE by BERNARDINI)
SCR  BLISTERING         (mccutchen jaso)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of EKATI'S PHAETON by TALE OF EKATI)
SCR  JOHNNY COME LATELY         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50    
  (by HOOTENANNY out of DOWN THE WELL by MUJADIL)
16  BAYTOWN BUMP         (mcentee paul)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 12.00    
  (by MITOLE out of SECRET UNION by PRIVATE TERMS)
 
KEE-3   04/25/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ACCIDENTAL HERO Mar30 Mar14 Feb19 Jan12 Oct07 (puhich mike)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00    
2  KEROUAC Nov19 Oct29 Sep16 Aug24 Jul09 (thomas jonatha)ORTIZ L 118 12.00    
SCR  TRES SOLES Sep30 Aug27 Jul02 Jun16 May12 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.80    
SCR  COOKE CREEK Feb17 Dec22 Nov11 Oct14 Jun03 (o'dwyer jeremi)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.50    
5  SUGOI Feb17 Feb02 Dec23 Dec09 Sep17 (hiles rick)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 36% 1.80    
6  TIWANAKU Dec10 Nov11 Jul23 Jun10 May11 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 29% 2.40    
 
KEE-4   04/25/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  XTRASAUCEWELLDONE Mar21 Feb08 Jan05 Dec15 Sep26 (nihei mich)CORRALES GERARDO 124 20.00    
2  LITTLE SASS Nov08 Oct11 Sep27 Jun17   (demeritte larr)CASTANON L 118 6.00 6% 17.00    
3  VERY WEALTHY Mar06 Mar13 Dec29 Dec08 Nov21 (lucas wayne)CEDILLO ABEL 124 8.00    
4  RIVIERE Feb28 Feb03 Dec14 Oct28 Oct12 (rouck l)LEZCANO ABEL 124 3.50 6% 15.30    
5  FROSTED DIAMOND Feb22 Jan12 Dec19 Nov21 Jun11 (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 124 1.60 44% 1.30    
6  ONE STORMY LADY Mar15 Feb07 Mar18 Feb18 Jan05 (hancock joh)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 20.00    
7  SMART WITH HEART Jan19 Dec31 Dec15 Oct13 Sep07 (camejo jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 4.50    
8  BERLAINE Apr05 Mar13 Feb15 Feb02 Dec29 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 118 6.00 21% 3.70    
 
KEE-5   04/25/2024 7920ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BREES Mar10 Jan04 Nov16 Sep10 Aug11 (mcgaughey)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00    
2  BETTER BET Mar16 Jan18       (sweezey kent)ROSARIO JOEL 118 8.00    
3  MARQUET MALICE Mar22 Feb28 Dec01 Nov02 Oct06 (douaihy mi)CORRALES GERARDO 118 50.00    
4  GOOD MEDICINE Mar03 Jul21 Jun10 Oct21 Sep02 (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 20.00    
5  CYBER NINJA Mar10 Jan31 Nov18 Oct19 Sep16 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 4.00 ★    
6  SGT. PEPPER Feb08 Jan11 May07 Mar31 Feb26 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 63% 0.60    
7  IRONSIDES Mar23 Feb09 Sep07 Aug19 Jul19 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
8  MIRACLE ON ICE Feb28 Jan27 Apr27 Mar25 Feb16 (hughes g)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00 ★    
9  CHAMPAGNE JUAN Feb28 Jan04 Nov16 Oct14 Feb11 (clement christ)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 13% 6.50    
10  TRULY QUALITY Mar03 Feb03 Oct28 Sep10 Jul07 (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-6   04/25/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($57K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YORK TAVERN Mar13 Feb02 May28 Apr15 Mar04 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  JR'S GIFT Mar23 Feb28 Jan25 Jan10 Nov04 (andrade hugo)CEDILLO ABEL 125 4.00 10% 9.40    
3  BROWN LIQUOR MAN Mar23 Feb25 Feb01 Aug20 Jul31 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.00 44% 1.30    
4  NEWHART Apr07 Mar08       (stidham mi)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
5  DR KRINGLE Mar23 Jan25 Dec22 Nov22 Oct06 (wilkes r)ORTIZ JR 125 2.50 24% 3.20    
6  MAXIMUM CAPACITY Mar08 Jan20 Jan01 Dec03 Oct29 (mccarthy mich)VELAZQUEZ R 118 6.00    
7  BEAUMONT RED Feb22 Jan25 Jan05 Dec15 Nov22 (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 125 4.00    
 
KEE-7   04/25/2024 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($130K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WARRIOR JOHNY Nov04 Oct20 Sep02 Jul02 Jun04 (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
SCR  BLUE KENTUCKY Dec29 Nov09 Oct18 Sep22 Jun10 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
3  EYEING CLOVER Mar14 Jul08 May29 Apr01 Mar04 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
4  EYE WITNESS Mar09 Oct07 Aug13 May20 Mar25 (ward a)ORTIZ L 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  CONDEMN Mar22 Feb03 Dec30 Dec02 Oct25 (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 30% 2.30    
SCR  ANGKOR Nov23 Oct25 Sep29 Aug05 May21 (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 118 1.80    
7  BOURBON HEIST Feb03 Dec16 Nov23 Oct23 Sep29 (wilkes r)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 26% 2.90    
 
KEE-8   04/25/2024 6270ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($110K) 3 F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SASSY PRINCESS Mar03 Oct29 Aug31 Jul23   (walsh brendan )PRAT FLAVIEN 120 12.00    
2  RAINING SUGAR Mar09 Feb08 Jan12 Oct25 Sep14 (mott riley)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 20.00    
SCR  KAMIKAZE UMAGI Mar23 Oct25 Sep10 Jun29   (west w)ACHARD ALEX 118 50.00    
4  HELLO HOLLYWOOD Mar30 Feb25 Jan28     (lynch a)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 15% 5.70    
5  ROYAL WINTOUR Mar10 Feb11       (motion graham)RUIZ JORGE 118 4.00 15% 5.60    
6  MIDSUMMER MARCH Mar23 Feb24 Feb02     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
SCR  SPUTNIK Feb10 Nov25       (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
8  SACRED IMAGE Feb10 Dec09       (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  STYLE POINTS Mar09 Feb03 Dec24 Nov04   (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.00 39% 1.50    
10  JANEY CREED Mar21 Feb22 Jan24 Dec13 Nov07 (hughes g)SAEZ LUIS 118 30.00    
11  TARNEEMA Feb09 Dec31       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 8% 10.90    
SCR  VOICE FROM ABOVE Mar13 Feb21 Jan18 Dec09 Nov16 (danner kelsey)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00    
 
KEE-9   04/25/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DAY DAWNING         (thomas jonath)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.50 15% 5.80    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of DEAR TO ALL by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  AIN'T NO OTHER Mar23         (catalano wayne)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 15.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LIFE OF ILLUSION by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
3  VELVET KISSES Mar03 Jan18 Dec16     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
  (by MASTERY out of KINSLEY KISSES by CONGRATS)
4  CAROLINA CANDY Oct06         (ennis joh)LEPAROUX R 120 30.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of SENORITA CORREDORA by EL CORREDOR)
5  MIYAKO         (lynch a)ROSARIO JOEL 120 6.00 6% 14.40    
  (by YOSHIDA out of PERFECT STEP by IFFRAAJ)
6  HANIWA         (correas ignacio )RUIZ JORGE 120 12.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BOSTON LADY by BOSTON HARBOR)
7  DIAL HOME Mar23         (wilkes r)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of LENAWEE by ALBERT THE GREAT)
8  CONQUEST DANCER         (catalano w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 8.00    
  (by FROSTED out of CONQUEST CITY GIRL by CITY ZIP)
9  SAME OLD FEARS Dec26 Jul21       (ward a)ORTIZ L 120 8.00 9% 10.20    
  (by UNCLE MO out of BOMBO GENESIS by AFLEET ALEX)
10  PLUM TRICKY Mar16 Feb17 Jan20 Dec16   (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 46% 1.20    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of PRETTY AT WAR by WAR FRONT)
SCR  INTO AMORE         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 3.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of EMBELLISH THE LACE by SUPER SAVER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.