Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - April 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/5)-(1/3/5/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/3/5)-(1/3/5/2)-(1/3/5/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/3/5)-(2/6/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/5)-(2/6/5)-(3/6/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-2   WIN (2/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/5)-(2/6/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/6/5)-(2/6/5/3)-(2/6/5/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/6/5)-(3/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/6/5)-(3/6/2)-(4/3/6/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/2)-(3/6/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/6/2)-(3/6/2/5)-(3/6/2/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/6/2)-(4/3/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/6/2)-(4/3/6/8)-(5/9/3/1/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-4   WIN (4/3/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/6/8)-(4/3/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/6/8)-(4/3/6/8)-(4/3/6/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/6/8)-(5/9/3/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/3/6/8)-(5/9/3/1/7)-(5/4/3/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-5   WIN (5/9/3/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/9/3/1/7)-(5/9/3/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/9/3/1/7)-(5/9/3/1/7)-(5/9/3/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/9/3/1/7)-(5/4/3/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/9/3/1/7)-(5/4/3/1)-(1/7) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
AQU-6   WIN (5/4/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/3/1)-(5/4/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/3/1)-(5/4/3/1)-(5/4/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/3/1)-(1/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/4/3/1)-(1/7)-(2/1/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/7)-(1/7/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7)-(1/7/6/3)-(1/7/6/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1/7)-(2/1/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
AQU-8   WIN (2/1/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/9)-(2/1/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/9)-(2/1/9)-(2/1/9) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   04/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOBLEANDGREENOUGH         (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.50 32% 2.10    
2  BALENTINA Feb17 Jan07       (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 1.80 ★    
3  DOLCE SERA Mar31 Feb24 Jan15 Dec18 Dec11 (delauro edward )CARMOUCHE K 125 2.50 28% 2.60    
4  GRACEFUL Mar17 Jan13 Jan07 Oct16 Jul31 (friedman mitche)CANCEL ERIC 118 8.00    
5  MOONEY MOONEY         (rodriguez r)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 8.00 14% 6.10    
6  GERMANY JAYVO Apr02 Mar05 Jan22 Jan12 Dec04 (persaud ran)MARTINEZ R 118 30.00    
7  HERECOMES SCARLETT Apr16 Mar17 Jan29 Dec04   (mice)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 6.00    
 
AQU-2   04/28/2023 3960ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEMPERMENTAL Mar26 Mar05 Feb09 Jan06 Dec09 (rodriguez r)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 10.00    
2  DERRYNANE Nov10 Aug11 Jul15 Jun19 May28 (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.50 34% 2.00    
3  MOONAGE DAYDREAM Mar04 Nov05 Sep30 Jul28   (abreu r)PENNINGTON F 118 2.00 ★    
4  SHINFULL Mar03 Feb05 Jan13 Dec16 Nov17 (donk david)CARMOUCHE K 126 8.00    
5  STARSHIP LAOBAN Apr18 Mar19 Mar06 Feb15 Jan27 (ness jamie)RODRIGUEZ JAMIE 122 12.00 16% 5.10    
6  ROAD TO REMEMBER Nov10 Oct23 Sep25 Aug20 Jul23 (lynch na)GOMEZ ANTONIO 124 4.00 24% 3.10    
7  PATRIA Mar03 Jan08 Nov19 Oct01 Aug26 (salazar mar)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 5.00    
SCR  BACKED BY GOLD Mar03 Jan28 Jan13 Dec18 Nov02 (quick patrick)OLVER MADISON 117 3.50 ★    
SCR  DIVA BANKER Apr13 Mar19 Mar03 Jan27 Jan08 (noda orland)RODRIGUEZ JAMIE 122 5.00    
 
AQU-3   04/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3 F PT- 2:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PERFECT SENORITA Mar19         (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 120 12.00    
2  BLOWTHRUYELOWLITES Mar31 Mar12 Jan20 Dec18 Nov07 (russell brittan)CANCEL ERIC 120 4.50 13% 6.50    
3  MAGGIE T Mar12 Feb02 Jan06 Nov19 Oct23 (rice linda)CASTELLANO J 122 2.00 35% 1.80    
4  DREAMAWAYSEVEN Mar30 Mar17       (englehart c)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 6.00    
5  AERON WARRIOR Mar31 Mar03 Feb11 Jan12   (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 6.00 ★    
6  ATTACHED Sep25         (duarte jorge )FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00 29% 2.40    
7  LUNA LOCA Mar17 Feb19 Jan06 Nov26 Oct08 (duggan p)CARMOUCHE K 122 2.50    
 
AQU-4   04/28/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($41K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEARTBURN Nov05 Oct23 Oct01 Sep09 Aug30 (sanchez-salomo)CEDENO CAROL 125 12.00    
2  RICELLE Apr07 Mar26 Feb19 Jan20 Jan01 (legall ricard)OLVER MADISON 118 30.00    
3  SNOW LOVES A FIGHT Mar23 Jul14 May28 Apr30 Apr09 (noda orland)RODRIGUEZ JAMIE 125 2.50 17% 4.80    
4  SMOKIN' HOT KITTY Apr08 Nov19 Nov06 Aug28 Aug12 (rice linda)CASTELLANO J 125 2.00 34% 1.90    
5  ANILEATE Mar12 Jan01 Dec03 Nov19 Oct16 (russell brittan)DAVIS KATIE 127 4.50    
6  ALWAYS LAUGHING Mar09 Feb16 Jan18 Dec15 Oct13 (morey willi)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 6.00 6% 16.10    
7  ROSEMARY POTATOES Nov17 Nov06 Sep22 Sep01 Aug19 (aren)HUAYAS (JASON) 120 8.00    
8  CROSS ISLAND Apr01 Feb11       (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 125 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  CRYSTAL ORB Apr07 Mar19 Mar05 Feb11 Feb05 (pringl)MARAGH RAMSAY 125 50.00    
SCR  BONANA FANNA FOE Apr02 Jan20 Jan05 Dec08 Nov21 (englehar)DAVIS A 125 4.00 18% 4.40    
 
AQU-5   04/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($35K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOURBON BAY Mar25 Mar19 Feb10 Jan06 Dec08 (arr)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 123 10.00 13% 6.80    
SCR  ICY STORM Apr14 Mar25 Mar18 Feb09 Jan07 (arriaga antonio)DAVIS KATIE 123 10.00    
2B  DONTBELATE Apr01 Mar05 Feb18 Jan14 Dec18 (persa)HERNANDEZ OMAR 116 5.00    
SCR  JUMPSTER Apr01 Mar05 Feb19 Feb10 Jan15 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 5.00    
3  DOIN'ITTHERIGHTWAY Apr14 Mar11 Feb25 May20 Mar25 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 3.50 15% 5.90    
4  COOL QUARTET Apr14 Apr02 Feb26 Feb11 Feb05 (noda orland)RODRIGUEZ JAMIE 123 8.00    
5  NO MORE TALK Apr15 Mar26 Feb26 Feb05 Jan06 (magee kieron)CEDENO CAROL 120 4.50 17% 4.90    
6  ROYAL REALM Mar26 Feb19 Feb10 Dec14 Jul19 (sciacca )GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 20.00    
7  MUSICAL HEART Apr19 Mar19 Feb10 Jan07   (jacobson david)CANCEL ERIC 120 6.00 12% 7.20    
8  VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD Apr14 Mar18 Feb26 Jan22 Dec18 (noda orlando)FRANCO MANUEL 120 6.00    
9  PERCEIVED Mar19 Feb05 Jan07 Dec18 Dec02 (rodriguez r)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 5.00 15% 5.60    
 
AQU-6   04/28/2023 3960ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREDDYMO FACTOR Apr13 Apr02 Mar25 Mar17 Jan28 (jones eduardo)OLVER MADISON 115 20.00 5% 19.00    
1A  GAME THEORY Apr21 Mar31 Mar18 Mar11 Feb20 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 115 20.00    
2  TRUE EMPRESS Mar31 Feb20 Feb09 Jan28 Dec17 (martin f)CARMOUCHE K 122 8.00    
3  DEVILLY Feb20 Jan28 Dec17 Dec02 Nov04 (ferrar)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  STELLA MARS Nov17 Oct20 Sep05 Jul29 Jun26 (handal ra)VARGAS A 120 3.50 5% 18.80    
5  CADENCIA Mar31 Jun04 Apr15 Mar11 Feb10 (morey william)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 42% 1.40    
6  NO PAYNE Nov17 Aug13 Jun11 Apr14   (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 120 6.00    
7  LA AGUILILLA Feb03 Jan13 Dec17 Oct22 Sep23 (jacobson dav)CASTELLANO J 120 4.50    
8  BUSTIN BULLET Nov19 Oct22 Sep23 Aug28 Jul29 (miceli michael)CANCEL ERIC 120 5.00    
SCR  CARBON Apr02 Feb09 Jan06 Dec15 Nov18 (kantarmaci me)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 19% 4.40    
SCR  ICY REPLY Apr20 Mar25 Mar17 Mar05 Feb26 (ferraro jame)CASTELLANO J 122 2.50    
 
AQU-7   04/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWOT ANALYSIS Mar05 Feb02 Jan07 Dec11 Oct09 (casse mark)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 4.00 60% 0.70    
2  NO SABE NADA Apr13 Aug24 Aug01 Jul02 Jun02 (allard edward )PENNINGTON F 118 15.00    
3  RIVER DOG Sep23 Jul16 Jun04 May07 Apr16 (breen kel)VARGAS A 118 15.00 ★    
4  SAINT SELBY Sep30 Aug12 Jul01 Jun16 May15 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.00    
5  BIG ENGINE Apr20 Feb18 Feb10 Jan21 Dec30 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 6.00    
6  DOT'S DOLLAR Apr21 Oct08 Sep17 Aug03 Jun11 (rice linda)CASTELLANO J 120 3.50 ★    
7  NOVA RAGS Feb10 Dec30 Nov12 Jul16 Jun19 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 2.50 12% 7.20    
8  CEES GET DEGREES Mar18 Mar05 Feb10 Jan27 Jan11 (jacobson david)CARMOUCHE K 120 10.00    
 
AQU-8   04/28/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  SUPER QUALITY Apr15 Mar10 Mar05 Jan29 Dec09 (arriaga a)VARGAS A 122 4.50 5% 19.00    
SCR  CATCHING CUPID Apr01 Mar11 Feb20 Jan12 Dec16 (arriaga a)VARGAS A 122 4.50    
2  DRINK THE WIND Mar19 Feb02 Dec29 Nov18 Sep24 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 122 2.00 49% 1.00    
3  R BOY CHEEKUM Apr01 Mar19 Dec01 Nov20 Oct27 (thompson)DAVIS A 120 50.00    
4  EL MAYOR Apr01 Jan26 Jan12 Dec18 Oct28 (breen ke)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 10.00    
SCR  MAJOR SPIN Apr14 Mar03 Jan14 Jan01 Dec03 (noda orland)RODRIGUEZ JAMIE 122 6.00 20% 3.90    
6  PRINCE OF JOY Apr15 Mar05 Feb10 Jan26 Jan01 (legall)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 15.00    
SCR  TOP OF THE MINT Nov12 Oct02 Aug19 Jun16 May05 (hennig mark)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 8.00 ★    
SCR  HOLEY MATRIMONY Mar19 Feb20 Jan07 Jan01 Dec16 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 115 12.00    
9  DOCTOR LOVE (FR) Mar11 Feb17 Jan20 Jan07 Dec10 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.