Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Thursday - April 27, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (4/3/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/7/6)-(4/3/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/7/6)-(4/3/7/6)-(4/3/7/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (4/3/7/6)-(2/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/7/6)-(2/4/3)-(1/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TDN-2   WIN (2/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/3)-(2/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/3)-(2/4/3)-(2/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/4/3)-(1/8)-(3/9/1/5/2) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
TDN-3   WIN (1/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/8)-(1/8/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/8)-(1/8/3/4)-(1/8/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/8)-(3/9/1/5/2)-(7/6/1) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
TDN-4   WIN (3/9/1/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/9/1/5/2)-(1/3/9/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/9/1/5/2)-(1/3/9/5/2)-(1/3/9/5/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
    PK3 (3/9/1/5/2)-(7/6/1)-(2/8/1/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TDN-5   WIN (7/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/1)-(7/6/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/6/1)-(7/6/1/4)-(7/6/1/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (7/6/1)-(2/8/1/4)-(10/11/3/9/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TDN-6   WIN (2/8/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/1/4)-(2/8/1/4/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/8/1/4)-(2/8/1/4/6)-(2/8/1/4/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
    PK3 (2/8/1/4)-(10/11/3/9/4)-(3/10/8/12/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
TDN-7   WIN (10/11/3/9/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/11/3/9/4)-(10/11/3/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/11/3/9/4)-(10/11/3/9/4)-(10/11/3/9/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
    DD (10/11/3/9/4)-(3/10/8/12/4) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
TDN-8   WIN (3/10/8/12/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/10/8/12/4)-(3/10/8/12/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/10/8/12/4)-(3/10/8/12/4)-(3/10/8/12/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   04/27/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($18.3K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAMBITI Apr13 Mar23 Mar01 Feb09 Jan17 (tumblin and)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 12.00    
2  SAMMY DA BULL Mar27 Feb20 Feb09 Jan11 Dec12 (faulkner rod)BERRIOS HECTOR 119 2.50    
3  OFTEN ENOUGH Apr13 Apr06 Mar23 Mar14 Feb21 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 119 6.00 22% 3.50    
4  JUDGE HEAD Apr13 Mar14 Feb21 Feb02 Sep08 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 119 8.00 24% 3.20    
5  HANSENATION Apr11 Mar22 Mar09 Feb20 Feb02 (juarez lorenzo)RIVERA R 123 4.00    
6  STONE COLD CAT Mar27 Mar09 Feb09 Jan26 Jan11 (calderon ivan)BARBARAN ERIK 119 3.50 15% 5.70    
7  BLACKTIEANDTUX Mar22 Oct04 Sep05 Aug02 Jun06 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 114 5.00 17% 4.80    
8  DEER CREEK ROAD Mar27 Feb20 Jan11 Dec21 Nov15 (vazquez ivan)KEISER CHELSEY 119 10.00    
 
TDN-2   04/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($17.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BONNIE'S BEST Apr12 Mar08 Feb20 Jan16 Dec30 (fletcher jef)GONZALEZ KEVIN 119 5.00    
2  MISS ELLIE Apr10 Mar16 Mar01 Feb09 Jan24 (doerin)BATISTA ALBERTO 121 2.50 37% 1.70    
3  SHANGHAI ROYALTY Apr03 Mar16 Feb15 Jan26 Jan04 (pappada)DOMINGUEZ EDILBERTO 121 3.00 13% 6.50    
4  PATTI LOU Apr03 Mar08 Feb13 Jan23 Jan04 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 119 2.00 22% 3.50    
5  PENNIESANDDIMES Apr03 Mar21 Nov12 Oct26 Oct12 (jo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 12.00    
6  BUSYBEING FABULOUS Apr03 Mar08 Feb13 Jan24 Dec27 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 114 6.00    
 
TDN-3   04/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLAYING FOR KEEPS Apr12 Oct11 Sep23     (ruberto louis)CEDILLO MAURO 114 3.00 52% 0.90    
2  PRIMITIVO Mar29 Feb27 Feb16 Oct11 Sep22 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 115 8.00    
3  CONTROLLER Apr12 Oct29 Sep26 Jul11   (hamm timoth)SANCHEZ JEFFREY 119 4.00 ★    
4  MARCH MAGIC Apr12 Sep01 Aug13 Jul28 Jul11 (brown glen)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 119 4.50 ★    
5  HAPPY TAKEOVER Mar29 Feb27 Jan26 Jun14 May26 (campbell ant)GONZALEZ KEVIN 119 20.00    
6  FLAG RAISER Mar29 Mar06 Feb14 Nov14 Oct29 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 117 2.50    
7  PLAYING BALL Mar29 Mar14 Feb27 Jan31 Jan17 (suarez javier)TORREALBA JG 114 15.00    
8  AWESOMELY INSPIRED Aug02         (rone mike)RIVERA R 115 6.00 16% 5.10    
 
TDN-4   04/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($38.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMERSON JONES Apr15 Mar23 Mar02 Feb23 Dec30 (skerrett jeffrey)AVILES YAN 115 4.00 10% 9.50    
1A  SHAKEURSKINNYLEGS Mar23 Jan31 Jan03 Nov15 Oct29 (skerre)BATISTA ALBERTO 115 4.00 ★    
2  SORORITY SISTER Apr10 Feb23 Jan23 Dec12 Nov28 (hamm timoth)SANCHEZ JEFFREY 123 8.00 7% 12.90    
3  RUNLIKEJACKIEO Mar30 Mar15 Mar02 Jan31 Jan03 (faulkner rodne)DIAZ I 119 3.50 28% 2.60    
4  SENORA PANQUEQUES Feb15 Jan31 Jan03 Dec12 Nov23 (mo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 4.50    
5  CAN I GO TOO Apr15 Mar29 Mar15 Mar02 Feb15 (murillo)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 12.00 9% 10.20    
6  HITCH CITY Sep28 Sep12 Aug25 Aug08 Jul05 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 114 10.00    
7  GOODNESS SAKES Oct10 Sep23 Aug12 Jul01 May24 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 119 6.00    
8  HOSANNA Dec03 Nov16 Oct31 Sep08 Aug23 (johnson l)TORREALBA JG 114 15.00    
9  DIAMONDS N DEW Apr15 Mar30 Mar02 Apr12 Mar26 (meyers shane)RIVERA R 119 5.00 12% 7.40    
10  LUCKY PENNY ROSE Apr15 Mar30 Mar15 Feb15 Feb06 (vazquez ivan)KEISER CHELSEY 119 20.00    
 
TDN-5   04/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PULPIT'S PURRFECT Feb28 Jan31 Nov21 Sep07 Aug06 (gallow)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 3.50 15% 5.70    
2  PASSIONFORTREASURE Apr07 Nov09 Oct26 Sep20 Sep07 (meyers shane)GONZALEZ A 123 10.00    
3  GIRLINTHEFIREPLACE Feb20 Jan24 Dec01 Nov15 Oct06 (flick julia)DIAZ I 123 12.00    
4  SHE'S PURE SILVER Aug26 Aug06 Jul20 Jun25 Jun11 (bailey ricardo)FELICIANO R 123 10.00 ★    
5  KINGSTON TIME Dec28 Nov21 Oct18 Oct10 Sep20 (urieta )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 123 5.00    
6  WINE ME UP BABY Apr11 Mar02 Jan18 Jan04 Dec20 (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 2.50 19% 4.30    
7  PURITY Mar27 Nov21 Sep07 Aug16 Jul27 (rone mike)RIVERA R 123 2.00 42% 1.40    
 
TDN-6   04/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($29.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CENTSOFWANDER Mar29 Mar08 Feb21 Jan17 Aug16 (huffman candace )RIVERA R 119 4.00 20% 4.00    
2  R CARDINAL PRINCE Apr04 Feb02 Dec22 Oct27   (dacosta jas)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 2.50 34% 2.00    
3  GOLD HERITAGE Mar29 Mar08 Feb08 Dec22 Dec13 (fadlovich m)SANCHEZ JEFFREY 119 5.00    
4  BAD LITTLE BEAST Feb21 Feb08 Jan17 Jan07 Dec17 (londono od)CHAVEZ ALEXANDER 119 12.00 5% 18.60    
5  ONEMORANDTHECHECK Mar21 Jan23 Dec22 Dec13 Dec06 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 114 10.00    
6  AGNELLO'S DREAM Mar28 Feb21 Feb08 Jan05 Dec22 (skerrett jeff)BARBARAN ERIK 115 8.00 ★    
7  ON HIS TOES Oct06 Sep26 Sep15 Aug31 Aug03 (londono j)TORREALBA JG 114 15.00    
8  STORMIN'UNCLEJACK Mar29 Mar08 Nov27 Aug23 Jul14 (faulkne)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 115 3.00 20% 4.00    
9  GRAND DEAL Apr11 Mar28 Mar21 Feb28 Feb08 (schust)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 15.00    
 
TDN-7   04/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Dr. Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PERFECTINGTHEVIEW Apr05 Mar14 Feb06 Jan10 Dec30 (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 121 15.00    
  (by WILLIAM'S KITTEN out of VICKI JO by MERCER MILL)
2  KERRI'S MIRACLE Mar30 Mar20 Feb16 Feb01 Jan24 (vazquez ivan)KEISER CHELSEY 121 15.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of CATCH THE WAVES by PACIFIC WAVES)
3  EDGE OF NIGHT Dec30 Nov12 Aug17 Jul21 Jun02 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 119 4.50 14% 6.30    
  (by ADDED EDGE out of CARGO JET by DISCREET CAT)
4  DIVA POWER Mar08 Feb16 Jan16 Dec30 Nov29 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 117 20.00 8% 12.00    
  (by GLOBAL POWER out of MY GIRL CASSIE by NORTHERN AFLEET)
5  MOBIL LADY Dec30 Nov28 Nov12 Oct29 Sep23 (meyers shane)RIVERA R 119 6.00    
  (by MOBIL out of SURVIVING NEW YORK by SURVIVALIST)
6  STAR RULES Nov12 Sep23 Aug30 Aug08 Jul12 (huffman kenneth )AVILES YAN 119 8.00    
  (by MOBIL out of STAR OF ATTICUS by ATTICUS)
7  CHLOES ANGEL Mar06 Feb23 Jan05 Dec21 Dec01 (romero osc)CHAVEZ ALEXANDER 121 30.00    
  (by KETTLE CORN out of MARY DUNN by EXCHANGE RATE)
8  BOSSY LADY Nov16 Sep23 Aug25 Aug12 Jul19 (radosevich jef)GONZALEZ A 121 15.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of BECKER COUNTY MISS by LANGFUHR)
9  DANCIN' ROSIE Apr11 Feb23 Dec30 Dec01 Nov10 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 117 10.00 9% 10.10    
  (by VAQUERO out of KISS ME DARLIN by WITH DISTINCTION)
10  NEAR PERFECT Mar23 Feb16 Dec30 Dec03 Nov15 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 117 3.00 31% 2.30    
  (by MOBIL out of ECHT by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
11  KICHI KITSU Mar23 Feb23 Jan31 Jan18 Nov07 (ruberto v)FELICIANO R 121 3.50 14% 6.20    
  (by DARK KESTREL out of BUCKLER by CONCERTO)
12  NICEASAKITTENSEYES Apr12 Mar23 Feb28 Feb06 Jan19 (atala )BATISTA ALBERTO 117 12.00    
  (by WILLIAM'S KITTEN out of SHESTWICEASNICE by PARENTS' REWARD)
 
TDN-8   04/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE WILD FLYER Apr04 Mar06 Jan28 Jan02 Oct05 (bracho jose)BRACHO AUGUSTIN 119 30.00    
2  UPTOWN GUY Apr04 Mar16 Jan28 Dec28 Dec08 (manning richa)CEDILLO MAURO 114 12.00    
3  ICON Mar30 Mar06 Feb07 Jan03 Dec20 (rone mike)SANCHEZ JEFFREY 119 8.00 36% 1.80    
4  PERFECT PICTURE Apr04 Feb22 Feb07 Jan28 Jan12 (reed larr)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  JOYFUL CANDY Apr04 Mar16 Jan22 Jan08 Nov12 (brinsfi)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 15.00    
6  SMUDGE THE CAT Apr03 Jan02 Dec06 Nov23 Nov08 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 123 3.50    
7  VALHALLA AIR BASE Mar30 Mar06 Feb07 Jan23 Dec20 (zielinski )CHAVEZ ALEXANDER 119 20.00    
8  JOE BRRRR Apr04 Mar06 Feb16 Feb06 Jan19 (sulliv)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 3.00 7% 13.50    
SCR  GET ALONG Feb07 Jan12 Jan02 Dec13 Nov10 (buhrow jamie)TERRAZA GERMAN 114 30.00    
10  EL CARDINAL Oct27 Oct04 Sep16 Sep01 Aug02 (ramgeet tina)RAMGEET R 119 4.50 24% 3.10    
11  TWICE AS SMART Mar30 Feb22 Feb07 Jan12 Jan02 (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 8.00    
12  K P SILVER BULLET Sep26 Sep13 Aug15 Jul20 Jul12 (jackson james )HOUGHTON D 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.