Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 17, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/2)-(5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/2)-(2/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2)-(2/1/3)-(7/5/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/3)-(7/5/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/3)-(7/5/4/6)-(4/6/1/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/5/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/4/6)-(7/5/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/4/6)-(7/5/4/6)-(7/5/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/4/6)-(4/6/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/5/4/6)-(4/6/1/3)-(6/1/2/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/6/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/1/3)-(4/6/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/1/3)-(4/6/1/3)-(4/6/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/1/3)-(6/1/2/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1/3)-(6/1/2/8)-(4/7/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/1/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/2/8)-(6/1/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/2/8)-(6/1/2/8)-(6/1/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/2/8)-(4/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2/8)-(4/7/2)-(9/3/1/2/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (4/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/2)-(4/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/2)-(4/7/2)-(4/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/2)-(9/3/1/2/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/7/2)-(9/3/1/2/4)-(6/7/2/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (9/3/1/2/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/3/1/2/4)-(9/3/1/2/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/3/1/2/4)-(9/3/1/2/4)-(9/3/1/2/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/3/1/2/4)-(6/7/2/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/3/1/2/4)-(6/7/2/4)-(3/1/10/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/7/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/2/4)-(6/7/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/2/4)-(6/7/2/4)-(6/7/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/7/2/4)-(3/1/10/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (3/1/10/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/10/8)-(3/1/10/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/10/8)-(3/1/10/8)-(3/1/10/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/17/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THUNDERHAWK Oct26 Sep14 Jul29     (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.00    
2  STATE PARK         (lauer michae)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  WACO Jul14         (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
SCR  CARCAR EXPRESS Oct17 Sep12       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
5  THE CHALK Oct26 Jul28 Jun30     (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 3.50 57% 0.80    
6  JACK'S PROMISE Oct19 Aug30 Jun23     (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 3.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  SCOVILLE         (toye l)POSTON K 109 15.00    
 
CD-2   11/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EVIE'S ENCORE Nov01 Sep13 Aug19 Apr27 Mar24 (hartman chri)MONCADA IRVING 113 3.00 24% 3.20    
2  TEARDUC Jun28 Jun06 May17 Apr27 Mar27 (sanchez ama)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 2.00 28% 2.60    
3  BOBBIE SOX Nov01 Sep25 Aug18 Jun20 Jun02 (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  SPARKLE OF HOPE Nov01 Sep13 Jul14 Jun13 May23 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50    
SCR  COMMANDERS PALACE Dec15 Nov02 Oct07 Sep21 Sep07 (alessi jam)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 120 15.00    
SCR  FREEDOM ATTACK Sep29 Sep12 Jul25 Jun09 Apr14 (childers vance)EMIGH A 120 15.00    
7  URBAN COWGIRL Sep30 Jul17 Apr25 Apr08 Mar06 (cline robe)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00    
 
CD-3   11/17/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCE OF POWER Sep01 Aug04 Jul20 Jun27 Jun13 (esquivel jesus)SANJUR SANTO 121 4.00    
2  GOLDEN SYMPHONY Oct24 Aug29 Jul28     (wilkes r)LANERIE J 121 3.00    
3  KNOW WHO YOU ARE Oct17 Aug24 Oct07 Aug27   (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 121 3.50    
4  STRADIVARIAN Nov03 Sep20 Aug26 Jul21 Nov22 (forster t)GRAHAM J 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  BREWING Nov04 Oct14 Aug29     (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 5.00 28% 2.60    
6  NEON BORDEAUX Oct17         (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  BOX OFFICE Dec31 Nov26       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 43% 1.30    
 
CD-4   11/17/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG DREAMING Aug03 Jul06 Mar16 Feb17 Jan11 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 121 10.00 12% 7.10    
2  FLASHIEST Oct19 Aug31 Jul21 May26 Apr28 (powell leo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50    
3  PUBLIC SECTOR (GB) Nov09 Jul27 Jul19 Jun15 Mar30 (joseph saffie )MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  TAKING CANDY Sep01 Jul13 Sep01 Jul22 Jun24 (devaux ch)TORRES A 121 1.80 51% 0.90    
5  AH JEEZ Oct19 Aug17 Jul21 May27 Mar03 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
6  WHAT SAY THEE Sep01 Aug04 Jun29 May31 Apr17 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.00 13% 6.90    
7  EL KABONG Oct19 Sep01 Jul29 Jun19 May09 (arnold r)LANERIE J 121 10.00    
SCR  CALL ME FAST Oct20 Aug31 Jul21 May30 May03 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.60    
 
CD-5   11/17/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAT PAYS THE TOLL Oct20 Sep05 Aug04 Jul04   (wilkes r)MORALES EDGAR 119 2.50 10% 9.00    
2  KINZIE QUEEN Oct02 Sep01 Aug03     (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 7% 12.50    
3  LOB Sep08 Aug10       (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 112 10.00    
4  COMBATTANTE Sep25 Sep13 Jun22 May31   (desormeaux )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
5  JUDY'S FLYER Oct30 Aug24 Aug16 Jul19 Jul11 (garcia genar)TORRES A 119 3.50    
6  BLUSHING KAM Nov06 Sep13       (hartman ch)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 58% 0.70    
SCR  TARRAGON         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
8  SPUNDERELLA Sep25 Aug03       (pino v)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-6   11/17/2024 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ENTERDADRAGON Oct12 Sep21 Sep01 Jul28 May11 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 122 10.00    
2  CALIFORNIA BURRITO Sep27 Jul20       (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 5% 17.90    
3  FIRMUS Nov02 Sep14 Aug24     (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 120 12.00    
4  ANALOG JONES Oct19 Sep21 Aug20 Jul23   (reid rober)SANCHEZ J 122 2.00 57% 0.70    
5  IRON SHARPENS IRON Oct26         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
SCR  UNCLE JIM Oct17         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 1.60    
7  MAGNITUDE Sep14 Jul20 Jun06     (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 3.00 13% 6.80    
 
CD-7   11/17/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAGICAL DAY         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of SEA OF BLUE by MIDSHIPMAN)
2  WICKED EYES         (torres co)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of HAIL TO ROCKNROLL by SCAT DADDY)
3  CATANA         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00 28% 2.50    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of KIRBY'S PENNY by MACHO UNO)
4  ENTICING BEAUTY         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of BELLA PAELLA by BELLAMY ROAD)
5  VIOLET IRENE         (tooley jenni)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00    
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of FORMAL PLAN by FORMAL GOLD)
6  NANCY LYNN Sep29         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of GLAMOURATTI by STREET SENSE)
7  CANTERBURY LANE         (forster t)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of PATRICIA'S RING by MALIBU MOON)
8  GINGER N SPEIGHTSY         (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SPEIGHTSY HEART by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
9  TICKIN TIME BLONDE Oct24 Aug29       (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.50 37% 1.70    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BLONDE BOMBER by FORT LARNED)
10  MODO         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of ACADEMY ROAD by LEMON DROP KID)
11  HER LAUGH         (beckman w)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TRUTH GODDESS by POINT OF ENTRY)
 
CD-8   11/17/2024 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GILCREASE Sep28 May02 Mar16 Jan28 Nov23 (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 120 5.00    
2  CYCLONE MISCHIEF Oct12 Sep14 Aug03 Jun30 May03 (romans dale)LANERIE J 120 3.50 17% 5.00    
3  SWIRVIN Oct04 Jul06 May18 Feb24 Nov11 (joseph s)SANTANA JR 120 5.00    
4  FIVE O' SOMEWHERE Oct01 Sep07 Aug20 Jul18 Jul11 (spraggins)BERMUDEZ E 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  GOLD LUCK Nov02 Sep22 Jun21 Jun07 May12 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.00    
6  KAVOD Oct12 Sep12 Aug22 Jun29 Jun08 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.80 23% 3.40    
7  OSBOURNE Sep28 Mar16 Feb09 Dec09 Sep29 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 120 6.00 19% 4.20    
 
CD-9   11/17/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOBO SALVAJE Nov06 Oct18 Sep11 Aug22 Jul20 (salas mar)PEDROZA MARCELINO 120 8.00 15% 5.50    
2  NOBLE GENTLEMAN Oct24 Oct01 Sep17 Aug19 Apr07 (labra rogeli)RAMOS D 118 20.00    
3  RIVER RIDGE Oct31 Oct09 Jul13 Jun09 May04 (cline robe)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 48% 1.10    
4  QUARRYMEN Oct13 Sep18 Jul21 Jun20 May17 (shorter a)TORRES A 118 5.00    
5  TIZ MARKS SPIRIT Oct13 Sep08 Aug24 Aug07 Jun08 (synnefias p)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
6  TROPANDHAGEN Aug02 Jul05 May31 Dec01 Oct28 (synnefias pan)JARA FERNANDO 118 8.00    
SCR  AIR CAV Sep18 Aug05 Jun19 Apr26 Mar02 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 118 10.00    
8  MIDNIGHT STORMY Jun02 May09 Apr27 Apr07 Mar08 (minnock wayne)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GAMBLERS TAIL Oct31 Oct10 Sep14 Jun02 Apr10 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 118 2.50    
10  ARTWELL Nov01 Sep13 Aug05 Jul02 Jun20 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 9% 10.30    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.