Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Thursday - November 14, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (4/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/7)-(4/2/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/7)-(4/2/7)-(4/2/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/7)-(2/6/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/7)-(2/6/8/4)-(7/3/1/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-2   WIN (2/6/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/8/4)-(2/6/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/8/4)-(2/6/8/4)-(2/6/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/8/4)-(7/3/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/6/8/4)-(7/3/1/5)-(3/4/5/1) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
MVR-3   WIN (7/3/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/1/5)-(7/3/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/1/5)-(7/3/1/5)-(7/3/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/1/5)-(3/4/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/3/1/5)-(3/4/5/1)-(3/4/7/10/1) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-4   WIN (3/4/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/5/1)-(3/4/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/5/1)-(3/4/5/1)-(3/4/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/4/5/1)-(3/4/7/10/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/4/5/1)-(3/4/7/10/1)-(1/4/8/5) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-5   WIN (3/4/7/10/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/4/7/10/1)-(3/4/7/10/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/4/7/10/1)-(3/4/7/10/1)-(3/4/7/10/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/4/7/10/1)-(1/4/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/4/7/10/1)-(1/4/8/5)-(2/1/8/7/3) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
MVR-6   WIN (1/4/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/8/5)-(1/4/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/8/5)-(1/4/8/5)-(1/4/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/8/5)-(2/1/8/7/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/4/8/5)-(2/1/8/7/3)-(9/6/7/4) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-7   WIN (2/1/8/7/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/1/8/7/3)-(2/1/8/7/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/1/8/7/3)-(2/1/8/7/3)-(2/1/8/7/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/1/8/7/3)-(9/6/7/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
MVR-8   WIN (9/6/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/6/7/4)-(9/6/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/6/7/4)-(9/6/7/4)-(9/6/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   11/14/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.8K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONSTITUTIONALIST Sep09 Aug21 Jul24 Jul03 Jun12 (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 126 2.00    
2  SNELL FLICKA Oct14 Oct01 Sep03 Aug12 Jul02 (buttigieg kevi)DIAZ I 126 3.00 23% 3.40    
3  BLEST LIFE Aug24 Jul26 May11 Dec12 Nov27 (smith larry)HOUGHTON D 126 4.00    
4  INCESSANT Oct28 Oct02 Sep04 Aug14 Jul22 (galloway )POTTINGER MICHAEL 121 3.50 43% 1.30    
5  KRISTIN Oct09 Sep23 Sep02 Aug19 Jun24 (rettele rich)HALDAR J 126 15.00    
SCR  FUTURE FLAY Oct29 Oct19 Oct09 Sep25 Sep07 (aguirre r)TAPARA LUIS 126 8.00    
7  OUT ATTHE SPEEDWAY Sep12 Aug28 May23 May04 Apr11 (haehn terry)BLANCHE RISHAWN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
MVR-2   11/14/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LEGENDARY STAR Oct28 Oct07 Sep24 Sep11 Aug15 (lopez jacint)TERRAZA GERMAN 124 15.00    
  (by MOBIL out of GIRLIANO by PAULIANO)
2  NORTH SHIP Oct17 Sep24 Aug21     (hetrick kris)TAPARA BRANDON 124 3.00 46% 1.20    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of LARKIN by BERNARDINI)
3  RYNO WRECKER Oct21 Sep24 May05 Apr21 Mar15 (rone mike)AVILES YAN 124 2.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of MEGHAN W by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
4  RED RIZZLER Oct31 Sep19 Aug04 Jul25 Jul06 (urieta johanna)REYES FRANK 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TEXAS RED out of ULTIMATE CLASS by DURING)
5  POP THE CORK Oct21 Sep24 Jul02 Jun05 May21 (hurley l)GONZALEZ A 124 10.00    
  (by GENERAL A ROD out of TIZ VEGAS by TIZNOW)
6  MIDNIGHT COUNCIL Oct28 Sep24 Aug20 Jul31 Jul13 (radosevich jef)HOUGHTON D 124 3.50 22% 3.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of SMOOTH PERFORMER by BENCHMARK)
7  CALL IT A NIGHT Oct01 Sep09 Aug19     (radosevich je)BRACHO A 124 6.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of TASTE'S CLASSYLADY by AFLEET ALEX)
8  ZAPTASTIC Sep28 Sep18 Aug28 May26 May01 (donjuan )FERNANDEZ R 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of CHEERY OATS by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
MVR-3   11/14/2024 5490ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PEPPER PIKE Oct30 Sep18 Sep05 Jul03 Jun19 (smith larry)DIAZ I 124 5.00 14% 6.10    
2  MY TWO AUNT JOANS Nov02 Oct20 Oct10 Sep16 Sep02 (ve)SALAZAR FERNANDO 126 4.00    
3  DIGITAL FOOTPRINT Oct24 Oct08 Sep24 Sep10 Aug21 (huffman )MARTINEZ A 124 6.00 20% 3.90    
4  OVER CALENDARED Oct13 Sep15 Aug25 Aug04 Jul11 (dorochenko )SEVERINO VICTOR 124 20.00    
5  MR LAOBAN Oct23 Sep24 Sep05 Aug13 Jul02 (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  BOSS BEAR Oct30 Sep19 Aug27 Jul15 Jun13 (skerrett jeffrey)AVILES YAN 124 12.00    
7  HAMMERIN AAMER Oct30 Oct03 Sep10 Aug13 Jul24 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 126 3.00 30% 2.30    
8  NIGHT TIME RULER Nov06 Oct21 Sep24 Sep12 Aug29 (brown gle)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 126 2.50    
 
MVR-4   11/14/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JACK'S YACHT QUEEN Nov04 Oct09 Sep23 Sep05 Aug19 (faulkner rodne)DIAZ I 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  BATTLE TESTED Oct30 Oct02 Aug24 Aug01 Jun23 (farrior antho)BARBARAN ERIK 124 2.50    
3  ARMY KITTEN Nov04 Jul06 Jun15 May26 May04 (rivera nest)NUNEZ Y 124 3.50 38% 1.70    
4  ISLANDINTHESTREAM Oct24 Oct09 Sep24 Aug04 Jul16 (pappada julie )HOUGHTON D 124 2.00 34% 1.90    
5  MAIDEN ROCK Oct10 Sep22 Sep12 Aug11 Jul25 (candelas blanca)FELICIANO R 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  WILDCAT DREAM Oct21 May30 May16 May02 Apr10 (salcedo ra)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 20.00    
7  TRAMA QUEEN Oct09 Sep23 Sep05 May20 May01 (skerrett jef)ROSARIO L 124 15.00    
8  RUMOURS FLY Oct22 Sep23 Sep16 Aug16 Jul18 (buttigieg kevi)GONZALEZ A 124 6.00    
 
MVR-5   11/14/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIMPLY VALID Oct30 Oct10 Sep19 Aug29 Aug06 (at)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  FROSTY PAWS Oct19 Oct02 Mar26 Feb26 Feb08 (sweeting cr)NUNEZ Y 126 15.00    
3  BLUE MAX Oct08 Sep17 Sep02 Aug09 Aug02 (buttigieg kevi)DIAZ I 124 2.50 47% 1.10    
4  RUFFIN Oct10 Aug30 Aug08 Jul06 Jun19 (waltz brian)JIMENEZ ALBIN 122 4.00 17% 4.90    
5  THE COACHMAN Nov02 Jul04 Jun12 May31 May08 (urieta jo)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 124 6.00    
6  GAPPER Oct02 Sep07 Aug09 Jul18 Jun28 (galloway khadee)REYES FRANK 122 20.00    
7  CYBERTIME Oct26 Oct04 Jul27     (farrior antho)BARBARAN ERIK 124 3.50 14% 6.40    
8  HEART OF AN ANGEL Oct21 Aug27 Aug05 Jul10 Jun19 (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 126 30.00    
9  EXCITEMENT Oct26 Aug30 Aug10 Jul16 Jun22 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 124 5.00    
10  PROSECUTOR Sep17 Jul10 Jun17 May23 May04 (guciardo robe)TOLEDO S 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
MVR-6   11/14/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($36.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KNOCK WOOD Oct26 Oct07 Sep03 Aug12 Jul29 (tumblin andre)BRACHO A 124 2.00 49% 1.00    
SCR  INTO GOLD Oct07 Sep03 Aug21 Jul29 Jun28 (rone mike)HOUGHTON D 124 2.50    
3  CONDEMNATION Oct29 Oct07 Sep26 Sep09 Aug20 (morales m)REYES FRANK 124 12.00    
4  PAINT THE TOWN Sep17 Aug21 Jun22 Apr01 Mar14 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 124 4.50 14% 6.20    
5  COUNTEVERYBLESSING Oct11 Sep26 Aug15 Jul31 Jul15 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  K KID Oct07 Sep03 Oct23 Oct06 Aug23 (zielinski ri)AYALA J 124 15.00    
7  OLLIE'S FOLLY Oct08 Sep04 Jul31 Jul15 Jun26 (rone mike)BARBARAN ERIK 122 8.00    
8  RED CHILI PEPPER Oct01 Sep12 Aug26 Jul31 May31 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 122 6.00 13% 6.50    
 
MVR-7   11/14/2024 5490ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Leona's Reward Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUR LAST SONG Oct28 Sep20 Sep02 Jul31 Jun19 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 118 4.00 22% 3.50    
  (by ITSTHESAMEOLDSONG out of OH SO EASY by TAKE THAT STEP)
2  RATATAT Oct28 Sep20 Aug31 Nov06 Oct21 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 122 4.50 22% 3.50    
  (by KETTLE CORN out of EBBY by RUNNING STAG)
3  TWISTED JUSTICE Oct29 Sep17 Aug28 Jul25 Jul09 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 116 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BIONDETTI out of TOUR FOR LOVE by EXPRESS TOUR)
4  FACTISIMFLASHY Oct09 Sep20 Sep07 Aug17 Nov22 (antonuik je)LAGUNES GABRIEL 124 10.00    
  (by CORFU out of LIGHTNING LUCY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  GOODNESS SAKES Sep20 Jul19 Jun22 Apr25 Feb08 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 118 8.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of SWEETNESSNGOODNESS by CUVEE)
6  LUCKY PENNY ROSE Nov02 Sep11 Jul31 Jun27 Jun19 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 118 12.00    
  (by KENTUCKY DANE out of COPPER ROSE by UNBRIDLED)
7  NEAR PERFECT Jun22 Apr09 Mar25 Feb29 Jan08 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 120 5.00 16% 5.40    
  (by MOBIL out of ECHT by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
8  MIZ KEETA Sep20 Aug30 Jun28 Jun19 May28 (go)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 6.00 19% 4.20    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of WAKEETA by WARRIOR'S REWARD)
SCR  IMA MOM Oct28 Sep18 Jul31 Jul10 Jun22 (vazquez ivan)HOUGHTON D 116 20.00    
  (by JAC'S FACT out of PICTURE OF MOM by CAT POWER)
10  MOBIL LADY Sep23 Aug27 Jun19 May23 May04 (meyers shane)AVILES YAN 118 15.00    
  (by MOBIL out of SURVIVING NEW YORK by SURVIVALIST)
11  KETTLE KISS Nov04 Sep20 Jul31 Jul10 Jun19 (radosevi)MARTINEZ A 118 20.00    
  (by KETTLE CORN out of ABIDING LOVE by OLMODAVOR)
12  DOLCE MARIE Oct26 Aug22 Jul31 Jul10 Jun22 (urieta johanna)PEREZ A 118 30.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of SWEETNESSNGOODNESS by CUVEE)
13  MOBIL CHIC Sep20 Aug27 Apr30 Apr10 Mar07 (zielinski ri)AYALA J 120 30.00    
  (by MOBIL out of CHIC CAT by TIGER RIDGE)
14  EXPRESS FASHION Oct29 Oct07 Sep20 Sep10 Jul31 (meyers shane)BRACHO A 118 12.00    
  (by MOBIL out of ENGLATERRA by JOHANNESBURG)
 
MVR-8   11/14/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 ALL PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SMOKE N MOONSHINE Oct29         (bernardini j)TAPARA BRANDON 122 20.00    
  (by BRODY'S CAUSE out of DOWN ON COPPERLINE by MUTAKDDIM)
SCR  BLAZING TONY         (smith larry)DIAZ I 122 10.00    
  (by TONALIST out of SUNNY EMPIRE by EMPIRE MAKER)
3  MY VALENTINO Oct29         (ibarra marco)GONZALEZ A 122 20.00    
  (by ENTICED out of PYRITE STORM by FORMAL DINNER)
4  AFLOAT         (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of SHESMORETHANATIGER by TIGER RIDGE)
5  JUDY'S COMET Oct29 Oct10 Sep18     (zielinski ri)AYALA J 122 15.00    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of MASTERFUL MISS by MIZZEN MAST)
6  BLESSEDNOTLUCKY Oct26 Oct05 Sep19 Aug25 Jul19 (farrior )MARTINEZ A 122 2.00 20% 4.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of KIPLEY by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
7  BIGPICLITTLEPIC Oct29         (poole m)BRACHO A 122 8.00 17% 4.70    
  (by QURBAAN out of LOOKTHEOTHERWAY by FAPPIE'S NOTEBOOK)
8  STRING OCTET         (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 122 3.50    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of TO BE DETERMINED by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
9  CASH BACK Oct04         (cowans d)NAVAS YOEL 117 2.50 37% 1.70    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of DEVILISH DISPUTE by DIABOLICAL)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.