Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - August 18, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (7/9/5/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/9/5/10)-(7/9/5/1/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/9/5/10)-(7/9/5/1/10)-(7/9/5/1/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/9/5/10)-(3/2/7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/9/5/10)-(3/2/7/1)-(2/6/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/2/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/7/1)-(3/2/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/7/1)-(3/2/7/1)-(3/2/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/7/1)-(2/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/7/1)-(2/6/3)-(4/3/8/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-3   WIN (2/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/3)-(2/6/3)-(2/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/6/3)-(4/3/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3)-(4/3/8/5)-(2/3/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-4   WIN (4/3/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/8/5)-(4/3/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/8/5)-(4/3/8/5)-(4/3/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/8/5)-(2/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/8/5)-(2/3/4)-(7/8/3/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-5   WIN (2/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/4)-(2/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/4)-(2/3/4)-(2/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/4)-(7/8/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/4)-(7/8/3/4)-(8/9/7/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-6   WIN (7/8/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/3/4)-(7/8/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/3/4)-(7/8/3/4)-(7/8/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/3/4)-(8/9/7/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/8/3/4)-(8/9/7/5)-(2/9/8) 48 $0.50 $144 
ELP-7   WIN (8/9/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/9/7/5)-(8/9/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/9/7/5)-(8/9/7/5)-(8/9/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/9/7/5)-(2/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/9/7/5)-(2/9/8)-(3/10/9/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-8   WIN (2/9/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/9/8)-(2/9/7/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/9/8)-(2/9/7/8)-(2/9/7/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/9/8)-(3/10/9/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ELP-9   WIN (3/10/9/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/10/9/2)-(3/10/9/1/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/10/9/2)-(3/10/9/1/2)-(3/10/9/1/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/18/2024 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REAGAN'S WIT         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00 ★    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of DAYIENU by SUNDAY BREAK (JPN))
2  TRAIN AND TRUST         (langemeier jo)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of EXCEBLADES by BLAME)
3  TIZ A SHOWDOWN         (baker james)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of TIZ KISMET by TIZNOW)
4  R Y D'ORO         (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of LAUGHABLE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
5  MODERN MASTER         (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 13% 6.90    
  (by CURLIN out of WHITE LIGHT by TAPIT)
6  LUCKY MISCHIEF Jul29         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by YOSHIDA out of SHE'S MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
7  FLEMING         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 2.50 36% 1.80    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of ROBILLARD by DISTORTED HUMOR)
8  CRYSTAL HILL Aug03         (ortiz joh)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of HOLIDAY'S JEWEL by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
9  I'M OTTER HERE Jul28         (hiles a)TORRES A 119 6.00 29% 2.40    
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
10  GAVE PROOF         (cowans d)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPIT out of STILL THERE by UNION RAGS)
SCR  ZAP D'ETAT Jul28         (house )LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 6.00    
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of SHOVALLA by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  REVERSE MERGER         (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SWEET STING by AWESOME AGAIN)
SCR  CAPTAIN JUNUH         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of ARAMINTA by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
SCR  TURNBUCKLE Aug05 Jul20 Jun19 May02 Apr05 (hancock dana)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of MOUNTAIN DOVE by POINT OF ENTRY)
 
ELP-2   08/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MESMERIZING ME Jul25 Jul04 Jun22 May31 Feb21 (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  WEATHER MAP Jul14 Apr28 Apr06 Feb17 Dec13 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.50 21% 3.80    
3  TRAVAILLE Jul14 Jun08 Apr27 Mar01 Jan25 (catalano wayne)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.50 28% 2.60    
4  BOBBIE SOX Jun20 Jun02 May16 Apr20 Aug08 (gonzal)LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 6.00    
SCR  COCKTAIL CUTIE Jul30 Jul17 May28 Apr28 Apr07 (manley steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
6  VERY WEALTHY Jul29 Jun26 May19 Apr25 Mar06 (lucas w)TORRES A 124 12.00    
7  LIL TOWN SIS Jul13 Jun14 May19 Apr19 Mar21 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 2.50 14% 6.30    
8  ALAMO Jul13 Jun08 May09 Apr19 Mar28 (lukas wayn)TORRES A 118 4.00    
 
ELP-3   08/18/2024 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRILLIANT MAN May31 Apr20 Mar28 Feb18 Dec15 (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
2  THE THUNDERER Jul14 May26 Apr17 Mar15 Feb17 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 2.00 58% 0.70    
3  BREADMAN Jul25 Sep27 Jul19 May13 Apr20 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  FIRST PLAYER Jun23 Jun06 Oct09 Sep15 Aug11 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
5  COPPER ECHO Jul28 Jun29 Jun09 Apr28 Mar23 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00    
6  BETTERA Jul15 Jun12 May26 Apr30 Mar24 (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 10.00 15% 5.70    
SCR  GAME KEEPER May12 Apr28 Apr13 Mar29 Mar07 (reed r)TORRES A 122 2.50    
 
ELP-4   08/18/2024 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GET AHEAD NOW Jun05 Apr30 Jan11 Dec10 Oct13 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 12.00    
2  TAPITORO Jun27 Nov18 Oct28 Aug31   (casse nor)TORRES A 118 15.00    
3  ROYAL SALUTE Jul15 Jun08 Sep30 Aug27 Jul23 (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 3.00 27% 2.70    
4  MCGINNIS Jul15         (walden willi)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 39% 1.60    
5  BOMB CYCLONE Jul22 Jun20 Sep29     (molloy tho)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  AWOL Jul22 Jun02       (maker michae)TORRES A 118 10.00    
7  MUNYHUNGRY Jul29 Jul21 Jul05 May26 May11 (parker donald)LEBRON VICTOR 118 15.00    
8  REMARKABLE MO Jul22 Jun30 Jun13 Jun01 May04 (brennan te)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 4.00 9% 9.80    
9  BEAVER STATE Jul28         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 12.00    
SCR  MO HOPE Jun21 Jun05 Apr30 Sep02 Jun02 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 124 6.00    
SCR  MO RUM Jul15 Jun06 Apr30 Mar24 Mar07 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 2.50    
 
ELP-5   08/18/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAVY SOUL Jul14 Jun07 May16 Apr14 Nov30 (pittman bonni)FUENTES ERICK 113 20.00    
2  SOGNO DI CAMPIONE (CHI) Jul15 May30 Apr21 Mar21 Feb29 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 123 3.50 59% 0.70    
3  BORN FLAWLESS Jul29 Jun26 Apr18 Feb16 Jan05 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 4.00 11% 8.50    
4  TAPSASIONAL Jun15 Apr26 Mar30 Mar16 Mar01 (santamaria ca)GARCIA MARTIN 123 8.00 6% 16.40    
5  OUTLIER Jul15 Jun15 May30 May12 Apr26 (hiles rick)CORRALES GERARDO 123 6.00    
6  BACKGROUND Jun19 May18 May03 Jul15 Jun04 (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 3.00    
SCR  J. P. RACE Jul20 Jun12 May25 Apr07 Feb22 (amoss m)LANERIE J 125 2.50    
 
ELP-6   08/18/2024 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIVERTON (GB) Jul20 Jul04 Jun30 Jun23 May31 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 122 5.00    
2  KARLWITHANARL Jul06 Jun08 Apr13 Mar23 Mar02 (medina robe)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00    
3  WINSTON WOLF Jul21 Jun23 May27 May09 Mar13 (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 4.50 6% 15.10    
4  STROKE OF MIDNIGHT Jul20 Jun20 Dec08 Nov08 Sep10 (begley greg)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  HARLEEZY May27 May02 Apr12 Mar14 Feb11 (hartlage gary )ELLIOTT JANE 122 12.00    
6  BERRETTINI Jun20 May12 Aug04 Jun22 May28 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00    
7  SGT. PEPPER Jul04 Jun14 Apr25 Feb08 Jan11 (margolis r)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 50% 1.00    
8  KING RUSSELL Jul21 May24 Apr28 Mar30 Feb16 (moquett ronal)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 3.50 18% 4.40    
SCR  GLEN AIRY Jul21 Jun27 May27 Apr19 Feb08 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00    
SCR  FIRST OF HIS NAME Jul28 Jun27 May29 May09 Mar21 (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
 
ELP-7   08/18/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STARSCAPE Oct07         (dutrow richa)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of PROSPECTIVE SAINT by SAINT BALLADO)
SCR  SHORTSTOP Jul07 Sep23 Jan06     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 124 8.00    
  (by BLAME out of JULERETTE by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
3  RIDDLE SOLVER         (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of ELOQUENT RIDDLE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
4  MOMENTUM FILES         (devaux ch)TORRES A 124 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MOLTO VITA by CARSON CITY)
5  AJAAYB Jul28 May30 Apr28 Mar27 Feb21 (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MEZAH by TAPIT)
6  DIAMOND LORD Mar13 Feb17       (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of CATCHING DIAMONDS by INTO MISCHIEF)
7  EGLISE Jul28         (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 11% 8.00    
  (by FROSTED out of AHH CHOCOLATE by CANDY RIDE)
8  CRUSHED IT Feb24 Jan05 Dec08     (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 3.00 41% 1.50    
  (by DIALED IN out of PINCH HIT by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
9  HOLSTER         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.50 25% 3.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CLASSY DANCER by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  TRUST ISSUES Jul28 Dec14 Nov10     (lovell miche)TORRES A 119 4.00    
  (by ENTICED out of INDIAN CEE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
 
ELP-8   08/18/2024 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DRIP D'ORO Jul24 Jul11 Jun13 May21 Sep25 (hiles a)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
2  BENCH Jun13 Mar09 Feb03     (vaccarezza ca)CANNON DECLAN 123 3.00 72% 0.40    
SCR  THREE ON THE TREE Jun30 May31 Apr30 Sep07 Jul23 (lovell miche)TORRES A 123 15.00    
4  OUR DREAM RYE'D Jul21 Jul04 May27 Apr18 Feb28 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 123 12.00    
5  PANCAKE HOUSE Jul15 Jun06 May11 Apr06 Mar02 (blair jordan)CHUAN MARTIN 123 12.00    
6  CAROOM Jun20 May12 Apr17 Feb25 Feb02 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 123 6.00    
7  THOMAS AQUINAS Jul04 Jun01 Apr26 Mar09 Oct12 (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 ★    
8  HYDRO FROST Jul29 Jun07 May11 Apr20 Feb17 (miller kenny)ROMAN A 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  DECANTED Jun30 May31 Apr24 Mar23 Jul07 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 123 2.50 7% 13.80    
 
ELP-9   08/18/2024 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMORA         (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 ★    
2  FASHION AFFIRMED Jul28 Jul05       (pittma)LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  TONALITE Jul21 Jun07 May01 Apr05 Oct27 (oliver vic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 2.50 55% 0.80    
4  COME TO MAMA Sep09         (davis christop)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 6.00    
5  POLITICAL SPIN Jul13         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
6  DREAMSCAPE Jul20 Jun02 Mar16     (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
7  YAMMY YAMMY BELLA Jan27 Dec27 Nov25 Oct29 Oct10 (salas f)DE CRUZ 118 30.00    
8  DESPO'S DREAM Jul21 Jun19 May25 May03 Sep20 (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
9  YO LEVEN Jul29 Jun20 May16     (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 11% 8.40    
10  WHY WASTE WORDS Jul14 Jun26 Jun04 Apr21 Dec15 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 4.50 12% 7.20    
11  ROYAL SUBJECT Jun09         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
12  MY SEXY BLONDE Jul21 Jul05 Jun07 Mar07 Feb21 (taylor brent)CASTANON L 118 15.00    
SCR  MYSTICAL CHANT Jul04 May25 Apr27 Apr07 Mar06 (foley )LOPEZ EDUARDO 118 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.