Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Sunday - July 28, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
SAR-1   WIN (4/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/1)-(4/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/1)-(4/7/1)-(4/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/1)-(5/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/7/1)-(5/2/3)-(6/4/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
SAR-2   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/3)-(6/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3)-(6/4/2)-(8/7/5/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
SAR-3   WIN (6/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/2)-(6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/2)-(8/7/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/2)-(8/7/5/1)-(7/4/3/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
SAR-4   WIN (8/7/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/5/1)-(8/7/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/5/1)-(8/7/5/1)-(8/7/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/7/5/1)-(7/4/3/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/7/5/1)-(7/4/3/2)-(3/6/10/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
SAR-5   WIN (7/4/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/3/2)-(7/4/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/3/2)-(7/4/3/2)-(7/4/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/3/2)-(3/6/10/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/4/3/2)-(3/6/10/7)-(1/4/3/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
SAR-6   WIN (3/6/10/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/10/7)-(3/6/10/9/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/6/10/7)-(3/6/10/9/7)-(3/6/10/9/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/6/10/7)-(1/4/3/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/6/10/7)-(1/4/3/7)-(7/2/4/5/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
SAR-7   WIN (1/4/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/3/7)-(1/4/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/3/7)-(1/4/3/7)-(1/4/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/3/7)-(7/2/4/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/4/3/7)-(7/2/4/5/6)-(2/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
SAR-8   WIN (7/2/4/5/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/2/4/5/6)-(7/2/4/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/2/4/5/6)-(7/2/4/5/6)-(7/2/4/5/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/2/4/5/6)-(2/5/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/2/4/5/6)-(2/5/4)-(8/7/2/3/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
SAR-9   WIN (2/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/4)-(2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/5/4)-(8/7/2/3/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
SAR-10   WIN (8/7/2/3/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/7/2/3/6)-(8/7/2/3/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/7/2/3/6)-(8/7/2/3/6)-(8/7/2/3/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   07/28/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARITAL TRUST         (tagg barclay)DAVIS KATIE 119 15.00 5% 18.50    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of PHILANTHROPIC by MALIBU MOON)
2  MY SHOT         (amoss m)ORTIZ L 119 3.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of COVENANT by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  BURIANA Jun26         (lukas wayne)ROSARIO JOEL 119 10.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of SUPER SAKS by SKY MESA)
4  RELIABLE SOURCE Jun26         (asmussen steve)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 2.50 60% 0.70    
  (by VOLATILE out of REPETA by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  BOSSY DISH Jun14         (rodriguez )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of KATANA by VOLKSRAAD)
SCR  DONOR ADVISED         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 119 1.80    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TOY MOON by MALIBU MOON)
7  MARGOT'S ANGEL         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 6.00 5% 17.90    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of SABRINA'S ANGEL by SCAT DADDY)
 
SAR-2   07/28/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRY IT AGAIN Jun30 May24 May02 Feb16 Feb04 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 3.50    
2  GEORGE'S VICE Jun30 Apr25 Mar16 Jan26 Dec31 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 122 2.50 15% 5.60    
3  GHOSTLY GIRL Jun30 May24 Apr20 Apr07 Mar15 (toscano jo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BERN ROSEY BERN Jul13 Jun15 May18 Feb04 Jan11 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.50    
5  GOLDEN DAGGER Jun03 Apr20 Jul19 Apr01   (morey e)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.00 55% 0.80    
6  SUN AND WIND Jun27 Apr30 Mar29 Feb18 Jan19 (rodriguez rudy )DAVIS KATIE 120 10.00    
7  FULIGNI Jun30 May21 Jan11 Oct23 Aug02 (bond ja)ROSARIO JOEL 122 10.00    
 
SAR-3   07/28/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($60K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KILLY START Jul17 Jun19 Jun08 Mar30 Jan11 (contessa gary )ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00    
2  RIBOT'S VALENTINE Jun28 May24 Mar15 Feb04 Dec08 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TIMED OUT Apr28 Feb10 Jan04 Dec14 Dec07 (noda orlan)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
4  GOLDCREST Jun29 May10 Jan11 Dec08 Nov05 (d'angelo jose)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00 14% 6.20    
5  FONTANAFREDDA Jul07 Jun22 Jan14 Jan04 Dec08 (persaud rand)CASTELLANO J 118 3.50    
6  SHESALITTLE EDGY Jun16 May09 Apr19 Mar15 Feb16 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 1.60 35% 1.90    
7  TOSCONOVA BEAUTY Jul02 Jun10 Nov14 Oct24 Sep02 (dixon k)ALVARADO R 118 10.00    
 
SAR-4   07/28/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($95K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY JASMINE Jun14 Oct27 Oct12 Aug12 Jul27 (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  LINARITE Jun20 May18 May12 Nov19 Oct26 (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 122 4.50    
3  PUNCH THE CLOCK Jul11         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
4  DELIGHTFUL DIXIE Jul07 Jun21 Aug04 Jul07   (dini mike)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.50    
5  A THOUSAND PLANS Jul02 Jun19 Jun05 May21 May06 (trombetta mich)ORTIZ L 120 6.00 10% 9.30    
6  FANCYPANTS JULIANA Jul13 Jun15 May18 Nov03 Oct08 (donk david)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 3.50    
7  ENFUEGA Jun30 Nov05 Sep28     (englehart jer)FRANCO MANUEL 118 6.00 27% 2.70    
8  FABULOUS FOX Jun21 Jan06 Dec09 Oct29   (clement chris)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00 34% 2.00    
SCR  FIRST CLASS CAT Jul18 Jun30 Jun20 May24 Apr25 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 5.00    
SCR  BUSSIA Apr20 Feb17 Dec07 Oct12 Jul22 (bond ryan)CASTELLANO J 122 12.00    
 
SAR-5   07/28/2024 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($110K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRUSHED ICE Jul11 Jun20 May17 Mar27 Jan25 (quartarol)LEPAROUX R 123 12.00    
2  SWEET MYSTERY Jul04 May11 Apr14 Feb11 Dec31 (quick patri)MCCARTHY TREVOR 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  STANDOUTSENSATION Jun01 May03 Apr05 Feb17 Jan20 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  REGULATORY RISK Jun07 May03 Apr06 Mar02 Dec30 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 1.80 17% 4.70    
5  CENTRAL AVENUE Nov25 Oct07 Aug31     (stidham mich)CASTELLANO J 118 3.00    
6  AMERICA'S VOW Jun01 May03 Mar30 Feb10 Dec02 (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 118 20.00    
7  SEDONA Jul04 May03 Mar03     (mcgaughey cla)ORTIZ JR 118 2.00 53% 0.90    
 
SAR-6   07/28/2024 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AS CATCH CAN Jul04         (thomas jonatha)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of JUST A CATCH by JUSTIN PHILLIP)
2  MCKINZIE'S GLORY         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of GLORY by KNIGHT)
3  OPULENT RESTRAINT (IRE)         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 119 2.00 29% 2.50    
  (by DUBAWI out of SIGNIFICANT FORM by CREATIVE CAUSE)
4  NANANANABOOBOO Jun14         (antonucci je)CASTELLANO J 119 20.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TOURMALINE by BELIEVE THE QUEEN)
5  OLIVIA'S POTION Jun28         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of ROTE by TIZNOW)
6  GOOD LONG CRY Jun21 May11       (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 119 4.00 26% 2.80    
  (by LONG ON VALUE out of HIGH CRY by STREET CRY)
7  RAVENITE Jun15         (gargan danny)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of STICK TO YOUR GUNS by AWESOME AGAIN)
8  TWO TURNTABLES Jun21         (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 119 15.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of BETWIXT by EMPIRE MAKER)
9  CORAL SEA         (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 119 6.00 ★    
  (by UNKNOWN out of WAKE ISLAND by WAR FRONT)
10  REINING FLOWERS Jun24 May22       (ortiz al)VELAZQUEZ R 119 6.00 24% 3.10    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of MI FIORI by CONGRATS)
SCR  QUICKICK         (amoss m)RIDER TBA 119 4.50    
  (by MCKINZIE out of GRAEME SIX by GRAEME HALL)
 
SAR-7   07/28/2024 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOBALS Nov04 Sep09 Aug05 Jul07 May06 (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 118 0.80 28% 2.60    
SCR  ONE TIMER Sep09 Aug06 Jul01 Jun01 Sep10 (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 0.80    
2  MID DAY IMAGE Jul19 Jun29 Jun08 Apr28 Nov16 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 118 20.00    
SCR  DURANTE May11 May04 Jan27 Dec30 Nov24 (jacobson david)RIDER TBA 118 20.00    
3  OUR SHOT Jun16 May04 Apr06 Mar09 Nov18 (terranova p)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 14% 6.20    
4  SOUPER QUEST Jun16 Apr27 Oct08 Sep09 Aug26 (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50 26% 2.80    
SCR  LEGENDS CAN'T DIE Jul04 Dec09 Oct27 Sep24 Mar04 (rice kevin)ALENCAR WALBER 120 15.00    
SCR  CHARGING Jun16 Apr20 Mar16 Jan01 Dec07 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 120 20.00    
7  BOAT'S A ROCKIN Jul04 Jun07 May18 Nov18 Oct12 (kulp l)CARMOUCHE K 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  NO NAY HUDSON (IRE) Dec01 Oct08 Aug13 May13 Apr16 (ward a)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00    
9  THIN WHITE DUKE Jul04 Jun08 May04 Nov18 Oct29 (donk david)LEZCANO JOSE 118 15.00    
10  STEP FORWARD Jun29 Jun01 Apr28 Aug13 Jul02 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 120 15.00    
 
SAR-8   07/28/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SINFUL DANCER Jul12 Jun07 May05 Apr21 Nov10 (figueroa david)LUZZI J 122 30.00    
2  DEVIL'S CAY Jul12 Jun23 May11 Apr13 Mar14 (morley thomas)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 3.50 13% 6.60    
SCR  AGILITY Apr27 Mar29 Feb17 Jan13 Dec30 (potts way)LEPAROUX R 124 6.00    
4  FOR SOME REASON Jun09 May09 Mar15 Feb15 Jan24 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 9% 10.60    
5  QUICK HAMMER Jun28 May18 Apr18 Mar29 Feb16 (handal raymon)ORTIZ JR 124 5.00 5% 17.70    
6  MUDVILLE NINE Jun28 Apr28 Mar21 Jan14 Jan11 (ferrar)GRISALES DANILO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  BLUE PLATE SPECIAL Apr13 Mar09 Mar01 Feb17 Feb03 (persaud randi)CANCEL ERIC 124 6.00 40% 1.50    
8  SCARAMANGA (IRE) Jun12 May29 Apr14 Feb28 Feb02 (giddings mel)BRIDGMOHAN X 124 15.00    
SCR  PINEAPPLE MAN Jun16 May12 Apr20 Mar29 Feb24 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 124 6.00    
10  SOUTH STREET Jul14 Jun02 May22 Apr28 Apr18 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 124 8.00    
 
SAR-9   07/28/2024 7260ft TURF RC13 FIRM Bowling Green Purse ($250K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OHANA HONOR Jun08 May11 Apr14 Mar02 Dec23 (mcgaughey claud)CARMOUCHE K 118 3.50    
  (by HONOR CODE out of SPACY TRACY by AWESOME AGAIN)
2  SILVER KNOTT (GB) May11 Apr20 Dec02 Nov04 Aug12 (appleby charle)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 0.80 47% 1.10    
  (by UNKNOWN out of GOD GIVEN by DOUBLE ZEUS)
SCR  SUGOI Jun15 May18 Apr25 Feb17 Feb02 (maker mic)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of TIMELESS SPIRIT by DEVIL HIS DUE)
4  ENGLISH CONQUEROR Jun16 Dec03 Oct08 Aug26 Jul16 (banach darwin )LEZCANO JOSE 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of REGAL CONQUEROR by SKY CONQUEROR)
5  SOLDIER RISING (GB) Nov11 Oct07 Aug26 Jul30 Jun10 (clement christ)ORTIZ L 118 4.00 16% 5.30    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SAHRAWI by PIVOTAL (GB))
SCR  STRONG QUALITY Jun08 May04 Mar23 Feb17 Jan20 (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 122 10.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of TIZ SO SWEET by TIZNOW)
7  STRONG TIDE Jun29 May18 May05 Mar29 Aug23 (lauer michael)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of DREAMIN BIG by STUTZ BLACKHAWK)
 
SAR-10   07/28/2024 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($95K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWO'S A CROWD Jul14 Nov30 Oct29 Oct04 Sep10 (ryan s)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00    
2  LAUREL VALLEY Jun20 May03 Apr06 Dec17 Nov18 (maker michael )ROSARIO JOEL 123 1.80 15% 5.80    
3  MIRACLE MIKE Jun30 Jun09 May04 Oct13 Sep17 (morley thomas)CANCEL ERIC 123 5.00 9% 10.30    
4  MANNY PENNY Jun29 May25 Apr21 Mar16 Feb18 (coffey marialice)USKE S 118 50.00    
5  DOLLY'S BANK Jun30 May27 Apr27 Apr11 Mar14 (coffey)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 30.00    
6  SHPILKES Jun10 May18 Apr15 Mar26 Feb12 (preciado guadalup)SAEZ LUIS 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  SLAPINTHEFACE Jun20 Nov19 Oct27 Aug23 Jun01 (dutrow anthon)FRANCO MANUEL 123 3.00 15% 5.60    
8  SONIC SPEED Jun20 May03 Feb08 Jan18 Dec22 (morley thomas)VELAZQUEZ R 123 3.50 41% 1.40    
9  KINGDOM ON PAWS Jul10 Jun18 May29 May11 Mar23 (davis ed)DAVIS A 123 30.00    
SCR  WINE RESPONSIBLY Nov18 Oct29 Oct14 Sep04   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.