Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Ellis Park
Saturday - July 27, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

ELP-1   WIN (5/2/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/6/8)-(5/2/6/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/2/6/8)-(5/2/6/8/4)-(5/2/6/8/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/2/6/8)-(8/6/7/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6/8)-(8/6/7/2)-(3/5/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (8/6/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/7/2)-(8/6/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/7/2)-(8/6/7/2)-(8/6/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/7/2)-(3/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/6/7/2)-(3/5/8)-(4/7/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/8)-(3/5/7/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/8)-(3/5/7/8/1)-(3/5/7/8/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/5/8)-(4/7/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/8)-(4/7/6)-(2/9/3/7/5) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
ELP-4   WIN (4/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/6)-(4/7/10/6/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/6)-(4/7/10/6/11)-(4/7/10/6/11) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/7/6)-(2/9/3/7/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/7/6)-(2/9/3/7/5)-(10/3/12/9/8) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
ELP-5   WIN (2/9/3/7/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/9/3/7/5)-(2/9/3/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/9/3/7/5)-(2/9/3/7/5)-(2/9/3/7/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/9/3/7/5)-(10/3/12/9/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/9/3/7/5)-(10/3/12/9/8)-(6/2/7/9) 100 $0.50 $300 
ELP-6   WIN (10/3/12/9/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/3/12/9/8)-(10/3/12/9/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/3/12/9/8)-(10/3/12/9/8)-(10/3/12/9/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/3/12/9/8)-(6/2/7/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/3/12/9/8)-(6/2/7/9)-(4/3/1/6) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-7   WIN (6/2/7/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/7/9)-(6/2/7/5/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/2/7/9)-(6/2/7/5/9)-(6/2/7/5/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/2/7/9)-(4/3/1/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/2/7/9)-(4/3/1/6)-(10/4/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-8   WIN (4/3/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/1/6)-(4/3/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/1/6)-(4/3/1/6)-(4/3/1/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/1/6)-(10/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ELP-9   WIN (10/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/4/2)-(10/4/2/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/4/2)-(10/4/2/5/8)-(10/4/2/5/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
ELP-1   07/27/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WAUNEKA         (calhou)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 15.00    
  (by ASTERN out of NAVAJO SCOUT by EVEN THE SCORE)
KILWIN         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50 24% 3.20    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of SPANISH STAR by BLAME)
RISUKO         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SILK ASSASSIN by BERNARDINI)
FUN TO RUN         (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by KLIMT out of ANABRANCH by CONGAREE)
TOTAL HEART Jun24         (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00 45% 1.20    
  (by HEART TO HEART out of DROP DEAD RED by HOLD ME BACK)
VIXEN         (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 8% 11.20    
  (by VEKOMA out of TOP MISSION by NOBLE MISSION (GB))
SCR  AURELIA'S MISCHIEF Jun14         (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 2.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LADY AURELIA by SCAT DADDY)
BOUTWELL TIME Jun14         (amoss m)LANERIE J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of DEL MAR MAY by JIMMY CREED)
TEQUILAANDTHERAPY Jun26         (o'neill doug)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
  (by MRAZEK out of CHEXCESS by IN EXCESS (IRE))
10  OKLAHOMA LOGIC Jul06         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of WINDING WAY by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  SHE'S ALL CHARM         (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 4.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of TOO CHARMING by BERNARDINI)
SCR  HIGH SUMMER         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of EXAGGERATED by BLAME)
SCR  BIRKIN GIRL         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BLAME THE FROG by BLAME)
SCR  LALILY Jul06 Jun25       (hancock jack )FUENTES ERICK 109 30.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of VIOLINIST by REGAL CLASSIC)
 
ELP-2   07/27/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MIDNIGHT TANGO Jun15 May18 Feb24 Dec20 Nov12 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 123 12.00    
SWEET AMY Jun14 Oct19 Oct12 Sep18 Aug14 (wismer glen)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
KLIMT'S MUSE May23 May01 Aug05 Jul07 Jun16 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 123 5.00    
BEST SELLER Jun15 May09 Apr10 Jun16 Apr21 (brisset r)TORRES A 123 6.00    
CHIQUITA MOSCA Jul17 Jun30 Jun22 Mar28 Jan25 (bahena ismael)LEBRON VICTOR 123 20.00    
MY GOOD FORTUNE Apr12 Mar07 Feb11 Dec02 Oct25 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 123 3.50 17% 5.00    
PENS STREET Jun21 Apr27 Mar17 Jan28 Dec02 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 3.00 9% 10.60    
JUMP INTO THE FIRE Apr30 Mar09 Aug11 May27 May05 (colebrook ben)ACHARD ALEX 123 2.50 46% 1.20    
 
ELP-3   07/27/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OY GEVALD         (divito jam)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of RUM GO by MIZZEN MAST)
PATRIOTIC JERRELL Jul07 May16       (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 30.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
NORMANDY COAST Jun27         (kenneally )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 2.50 48% 1.10    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of ALLITERATION by CONGRATS)
HEAVENVILLE         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 6.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of TREASURE IN HEAVEN by STREET SENSE)
RAVE RUNNER         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 4.00 25% 3.10    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of RAVER by TIZNOW)
FINANCIAL WHIZ Jun19 May09       (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of GATORETTE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
BLAKE JAMES         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 4.50    
  (by AUDIBLE out of GAMBIARRA by QUALITY ROAD)
BRERETON'S BAYTOWN Jul07 Jun19 Jun06     (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UPSTART out of KIKA by BIRDSTONE)
BORROWED TIME Jul05         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 5.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of SECRETARIAL QUEEN by SECRETARIAT)
 
ELP-4   07/27/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROCKAWAY REEF Jul04 Jun12 May19     (miller kenny)ROMAN A 119 15.00    
SCR  CLASSIC MYSTERY Jun08 May12 Nov16 Oct03   (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
BEACH BUNNY Jun29         (catalano wayne )COHEN DAVID 119 12.00    
CANDY LOVER May23 Apr18 Mar13 Feb04 Nov25 (mcgee pau)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 68% 0.50    
AIR FORCE THUNDER Jan15 Jan01 Nov12     (moger jr)BEJARANO R 119 6.00    
MIDWAY VOW Jul05 May19 Mar28     (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 10.00 5% 19.00    
CHAMPAGNE SURPRISE Jun26 Nov24 Oct25 Aug18   (wilkes ia)TORRES A 119 3.00 5% 19.00    
MO SASHAY Jun25 Jun08       (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00    
TIZ SALTY Jun26         (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
10  LADY ABERDEEN Jul05 Jun16 May26 Apr20 Mar13 (miller kenny)LANERIE J 119 5.00    
11  ROMANTIC DANCER         (kenneally )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
 
ELP-5   07/27/2024 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3 ALL PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FORTUNE SELLER Jul06 Jun07 May11 Oct26 Oct08 (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 15.00    
HAMMERSTEIN Feb03 Dec23 Oct07     (lynch bri)TORRES A 120 2.00 37% 1.70    
KATHEEB Jun13 Mar08 Jan13 Dec06   (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00 12% 7.50    
REALIGNMENT Jun27         (block chris)COHEN DAVID 120 12.00    
BANJO CHRIS Jun23 Jun05 Mar01 Feb16   (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KITTY HAWK (GB) Jul06 May10 Apr10 Nov12 Oct07 (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 120 12.00    
STORMS HOME Jun23 May26 May05 Apr14   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 6.00 7% 13.70    
THIS TIME Jun07 May04 Apr06 Feb23 Jan25 (maker micha)PETERSON FERRIN 120 10.00    
HERCHEE Jun30         (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.50 20% 4.10    
10  POOL GUY May23 May04 Apr18 Mar01 Jan31 (humphries thomas)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
SCR  TEMECULA Jun23 Jun02 Apr21 Mar16   (walsh bren)CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00    
SCR  MO RHODES Jun29 May31 Apr24 Mar02 Oct29 (amoss tho)TORRES A 120 4.00    
SCR  FIRST OF HIS NAME Jun27 May29 May09 Mar21 Aug26 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 120 6.00    
 
ELP-6   07/27/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CALATHEA Jul06         (sancal murat)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
  (by TONALIST out of LADY CANDY by CANDY RIDE)
KISS ME AGAIN Jun22 Jun01 May01 Apr05 Feb28 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of FUHRIOUSLY KISSED by LANGFUHR)
JAZZ PARTY         (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 4.50 25% 3.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of STAR SIGHTING by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  MORINGA Jun29 Jun02       (pribble w)BEALMEAR C 112 20.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of LADY SIPHONICA by SIPHON (BRZ))
CRANK IT UP         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by FROSTED out of HERMAJESTYCOMMANDS by WAR FRONT)
VIBE CHECK Jun16 May19       (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 8.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of DAILY CAST by CURLIN)
LEGACY DEFINED Jul31         (hobby steve)ROCCO S 119 10.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of TIZ MIZ SUE by TIZNOW)
FLIGHT TO PARIS Feb25 Jan28 Nov25 Sep21   (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of FLY TO THE STARS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
QUEEN CLANCY May25 Apr28 Mar22 Jan26 Dec29 (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of MISS DIXIE CUP by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
10  IRINA'S CHARM Oct21 Sep16       (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 35% 1.90    
  (by JUSTIFY out of STRIKE CHARMER by SMART STRIKE)
11  MOMBAYLA         (tomlinson mic)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of CALIFORNIA BREEZE by INTO MISCHIEF)
12  HEY OLIVIA Jun29 Nov03       (pitts helen)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 14% 6.10    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SHE'S A GYPSY by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
13  CLIQUE         (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 119 30.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LITTLE ALEXIS by MR. GREELEY)
14  LADY CHAI May20 Mar23 Dec29 Nov17 Oct06 (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of INDIAN BAY by ARCHERS BAY)
 
ELP-7   07/27/2024 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STEPHANIE'S CHARM Jul11 Jun16 Apr27 Mar23 Mar03 (gutierrez)TORRES A 123 15.00    
HEART SPIN Jun15 Mar11 Jan18     (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 3.50 27% 2.80    
LUCKY SPEECH Jun15 May17 Apr05 Feb29 Jan27 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
CALL ME TONI Jun21 May23 Apr24 Mar13 Feb14 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 123 15.00    
LAST CALL (ARG) Jun28 May11 Apr14 Oct27   (thomas jon)CORRALES GERARDO 123 5.00    
BIG BRASS BED Jun01 Mar03 Jan27 Jul23 Jun22 (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 123 3.00 34% 2.00    
SHE'S ON THE ROCKS May30 Mar21 Feb15 Jul07 Jun11 (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 4.50 15% 5.50    
UMEBOSHI Jun19 May28 Nov10 Oct15 Sep14 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
ALYBAER May28 Apr14 Mar21 Feb14 Jan17 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  BAG LADY May11 Apr07 Feb24 Feb01 Jan01 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 123 20.00    
 
ELP-8   07/27/2024 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BRU NA BOINNE Jun09 Sep23 Aug05 Jun29 Mar25 (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 5.00 11% 8.30    
QUEEN LECA (URU)         (lobo h)ROMAN A 122 10.00    
FLASHY LASS Jun30 May04 Apr12 Mar07 Feb11 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 3.00 21% 3.80    
DEAR LADY Jan27 Jan01 Nov26 Nov16 Oct14 (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 45% 1.20    
SCR  SECRET STATEMENT Jul22 Jun09 May19 May04 Nov24 (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 4.50    
PEACOCK LASS Jul07 Jun01 May04 Apr07 Feb24 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
SUNNY ISLE BEACH Jun09 Apr30 Mar22 Jan31 Jan01 (shirer a)CHUAN MARTIN 122 8.00    
IN MY OPINION Mar28 Feb17 Dec17 Oct30 Oct02 (estvanko richa)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
 
ELP-9   07/27/2024 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3 F PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SANCTIFY Jun29 Jun07 May18 Apr17 Mar06 (holsapple)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
SMOOTH WAVES Jun21 Oct25 Oct06 Sep10 Aug06 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
FLOORED Jun29 May26 Nov25 Oct29 Oct15 (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 120 30.00    
SCR  MOON SPUN Jun15 May16 Mar29 Mar08   (lynch a)GRAHAM J 120 3.00 31% 2.20    
LOW COUNTRY MAGIC Jun15 May30 Apr17     (correas ignaci)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
OFF THE LAM Jun15 May12 Feb24 Feb02   (gutierrez)TORRES A 122 15.00    
CAIRO STREET May10 Dec09 Oct11 Sep13 Aug13 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 8.00    
FANTASTICAL Feb07 Jan03 Dec08 Nov16 Oct19 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 8.00    
SENSE OF PEARL Jun24 Jun08 Apr05 Mar13   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 12.00    
10  PHAROAH'S WINE Jun21 Mar30 Feb03 Nov26 Oct06 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 120 2.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  PENDULUM Jun21 May01 Mar31 Jan07 Dec10 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 120 5.00    
SCR  MS QUALITY CONTROL Jun19 May01 Mar09 Feb17 Jan27 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 4.50    
SCR  SARIR Jun06 Apr20 Feb11 Dec17   (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00    
SCR  YAY HOORAY Jun19 May04 Apr07 Feb11   (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.