Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 21, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (3/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/2)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/2)-(3/11/5/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2)-(3/11/5/9)-(7/3/2/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/11/5/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/11/5/9)-(3/11/5/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/11/5/9)-(3/11/5/9)-(3/11/5/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/11/5/9)-(7/3/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/11/5/9)-(7/3/2/6)-(5/2/11/9/4) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-3   WIN (7/3/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/2/6)-(7/3/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/2/6)-(7/3/2/6)-(7/3/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/2/6)-(5/2/11/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/3/2/6)-(5/2/11/9/4)-(5/1/3/2/10) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/2/11/9/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/2/11/9/4)-(5/2/11/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/2/11/9/4)-(5/2/11/9/4)-(5/2/11/9/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/2/11/9/4)-(5/1/3/2/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (5/2/11/9/4)-(5/1/3/2/10)-(10/9/13) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
ELP-5   WIN (5/1/3/2/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/1/3/2/10)-(5/1/3/2/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/1/3/2/10)-(5/1/3/2/10)-(5/1/3/2/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/1/3/2/10)-(10/9/13) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/1/3/2/10)-(10/9/13)-(9/8/4/2/3) 75 $0.50 $225 
ELP-6   WIN (10/9/13) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/9/13)-(10/9/2/1/13) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/9/13)-(10/9/2/1/13)-(10/9/2/1/13) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/9/13)-(9/8/4/2/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (10/9/13)-(9/8/4/2/3)-(5/2/4) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
ELP-7   WIN (9/8/4/2/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/8/4/2/3)-(9/8/4/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/8/4/2/3)-(9/8/4/2/3)-(9/8/4/2/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/8/4/2/3)-(5/2/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (9/8/4/2/3)-(5/2/4)-(7/5/3/2/9) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
ELP-8   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/4)-(7/5/3/2/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ELP-9   WIN (7/5/3/2/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/5/3/2/9)-(7/5/3/2/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/5/3/2/9)-(7/5/3/2/9)-(7/5/3/2/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MERIT Jul04 Apr06 Mar01 Feb03 Nov04 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 2.00    
2  EPIC BATTLE Jun19 May30 May09 Oct29 Sep15 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 118 4.50 9% 10.50    
3  DR KRINGLE Jun29 Jun08 May23 Apr25 Mar23 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 3.00 52% 0.90    
4  QUARRYMEN Jun20 May17 May01 Mar20 Feb13 (shorter aa)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00    
5  I'M YOUR MAN Jun29 May31 May05 Mar23 Nov23 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 10% 8.60    
6  ICE TIME May18 Apr24 Nov29 Nov16 Sep28 (amoss tho)TORRES A 123 5.00    
 
ELP-2   07/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DESPO'S DREAM Jun19 May25 May03 Sep20 Aug04 (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.00    
2  CANDY CRAZE Jun05 May24 May01     (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 119 4.50    
3  CONQUEST DANCER Jun20 Apr25       (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 3.50 49% 1.10    
4  TAKER BACK Jun23 Jun08 May19 Apr28 Apr07 (haran john)BURGOS ALBERTO 119 12.00    
5  REMEMBERING MAUDE         (french wa)BEALMEAR C 112 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  COLDASICE         (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
7  CHARM OF THE SONG Jul04 Jun05 May12 Apr10 Feb11 (foster eric)FUENTES ERICK 109 15.00    
SCR  DIVINE TREASURE Oct25         (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 30.00    
9  SPICEY VALENTINE         (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  AIN'T NO OTHER Jun18 Apr25 Mar23     (catalano way)BARBOSA CARLOS 114 10.00    
11  PATTY VAN TWINKLE Jun19 May31 Jan01 Nov26 Oct30 (hamilton sara)GARCIA MARTIN 124 3.00 19% 4.20    
 
ELP-3   07/21/2024 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITSABLINGTHING Jun27 May29 May02 Apr10 Jan31 (barret)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 112 20.00    
2  OFF RAMP Jun26 May12 Apr28 Apr04 Sep02 (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 3.50 9% 9.80    
3  SARA MIA Jun23 May26 Mar10 Jan21 Dec14 (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 3.00 14% 6.20    
4  SAMAY (PER) Jul17 Jul07 Jul04 Jun13 Jun10 (arias alfonso)CHUAN MARTIN 122 4.00    
5  DRIANA Jun18 May06 Apr07 Mar27 Aug31 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.50    
6  MOON RAY (FR) Apr20 Mar23 Mar03     (gutierrez)TORRES A 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  HIDEKI Jun07 Apr07 Mar20 Oct01 Sep22 (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 122 2.50 50% 1.00    
SCR  CHARRIERE Jun26 May17 Mar23 Feb03 Dec22 (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 2.00    
 
ELP-4   07/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCCHESI Jun16 May24 May02 Mar13   (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
2  MUNYHUNGRY Jul05 May26 May11 Nov18   (parker donald)LEBRON VICTOR 119 6.00 18% 4.40    
3  STRADIVARIAN Nov22 Sep30 Aug13     (forster t)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
4  LUCKYASIWONSWAS Jun27         (warpool shane)MILLER CHASE 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
5  ALILNALOT Jun05 Sep17 Jul30 Jun10 May13 (catalano wayne)MACHADO LUAN 124 8.00 44% 1.30    
6  SOCO AND LIME Jun21         (williamson)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
SCR  MR PUK May05         (ortiz a)TORRES A 124 2.50    
8  PLUNDER Jun21 May04       (wojczyns)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00    
9  LORD DIAMOND Jun16 May27       (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 15.00 6% 14.70    
10  MALIBLUE Jul06 Jun05 May17 Apr30 Mar15 (foster er)TORRES A 119 6.00    
11  EXECUTIVE POWER Apr20 Apr06       (asmussen stev)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.00 8% 10.90    
 
ELP-5   07/21/2024 3630ft TURF RC2 FIRM Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 F PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MEUCCI'S REVENGE Jun16 May27       (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00 23% 3.40    
2  MOOCHIE GIRL Jun16 May27       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 7% 12.50    
3  ISLAND RIDE Jun16 Apr07       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 23% 3.40    
4  BARBARINA Jun28         (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
5  LITTLE MO         (eurton pe)TORRES A 119 4.50 26% 2.80    
6  MERCY OTIS Jun22         (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
7  INTO THE FRAY         (arnold r)LANERIE J 119 8.00    
SCR  WHITELICK ROAD Jun22         (hancock joh)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
SCR  HOPE SHE FIRES         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
10  WE HEAR YOU         (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  HONEYBEEBOBBIE         (gonzalez re)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 30.00    
12  RAGTIME KITTY Jun17         (davis christ)TORRES A 119 8.00    
SCR  PREYATHOUSANDWORDS Jul13 Jun16       (veinot trudy)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
SCR  MATCH FIVE Jul06 May22 Apr26     (ennis john)MONCADA IRVING 109 30.00    
 
ELP-6   07/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING RUSSELL May24 Apr28 Mar30 Feb16 Jan13 (moquett ronal)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 8.00 ★    
2  MIDNIGHT RAID Jun09 May10 Apr12 Mar03 Feb08 (casse w)LANERIE J 123 8.00 ★    
3  CURLIN'S GESTURE May11 Jul02       (walsh bre)TORRES A 123 10.00    
4  PEEK Jun13 May11 Nov24 Oct06 Sep03 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 123 15.00    
5  WINSTON WOLF Jun23 May27 May09 Mar13 Feb02 (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 15.00    
6  GLEN AIRY Jun27 May27 Apr19 Feb08 Jan15 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00    
7  MIDNIGHT DAJOEY Jun21 May29       (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 123 20.00    
SCR  LAUGHINALLTHEWAY Jun23 May09 Apr12 Mar03 Feb08 (lovell michell)CONNER TYLER 123 30.00    
9  MOST WANTED Jun21         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 28% 2.50    
10  BATON ROUGE (IRE) Jun07 May05 Mar15     (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 123 2.50 48% 1.10    
11  UNO MAS BOURBON Jun20 May26 Apr24 Sep24 Aug05 (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
12  MR MCGREGOR Jun20 Oct12 Sep10 Jul02 Jun02 (mott william)TORRES A 123 15.00    
13  OUR DREAM RYE'D Jul04 May27 Apr18 Feb28 Jan10 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-7   07/21/2024 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SASHAY AWAY         (medina rober)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by CURLIN out of I'M WONDERFUL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  STREAKING Jun25 Jun04       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 6% 15.10    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of RUBIN by DOMINUS)
3  HEARTS UNITED         (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of HEART LOVE KISS by ZENSATIONAL)
4  LUCKY MAMA Jun14         (kenneally )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 3.50 7% 12.90    
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
5  ALWAYS FOREVER         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of NASREDDINE by NYQUIST)
6  LADY RILEY         (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of COUNTESS D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  JEWISH MOTHER Jun28 Jun16       (hobby ste)TORRES A 119 30.00    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of FARINGDON CIRCLE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
8  DELORAINE         (harty eoin)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 26% 2.80    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of ELAINE'S CAT by DISCREET CAT)
9  JUST SHOWING OFF         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 4.00 38% 1.70    
  (by JUSTIFY out of GAELS WIN by DAAHER)
10  DAISY FLYER         (arnold r)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00    
  (by MSHAWISH out of STARSTRUCK by GALILEO)
11  MIDNIGHT IN AUSTIN May31         (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of GONE TO AUSTIN by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
12  SUPER MAXIMA Jun21 May31 May14     (seglin e)RIQUELME J 119 30.00    
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of GONE TO BALI by GONE ASTRAY)
SCR  JEWELED CITY         (stall albert)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of BE JEWELED by TIZNOW)
SCR  SOMETHINABOUTHER Jun14         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of PHANTOM PROTON by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  PANACHE Jun21         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MOJO MAMA by TAPITURE)
SCR  TOTAL HEART Jun24         (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00    
  (by HEART TO HEART out of DROP DEAD RED by HOLD ME BACK)
 
ELP-8   07/21/2024 4290ft DIRT RC11 FAST Jeff Hall Memorial Purse ($125K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HERE MI SONG Jun01 May04 Mar09 Aug13 Jul22 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 122 2.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of MI VIERA by DEHERE)
2  HAPPY IS A CHOICE Jun22 Apr13 Mar03 Jan26 Jan01 (ortiz a)TORRES A 126 3.50 21% 3.70    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of FAST ALEXIA by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  OSBOURNE Mar16 Feb09 Dec09 Sep29 Aug26 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of PLANET ROCK by ROCK HARD TEN)
4  CALL ME FAST May30 May03 Apr06 Aug25 Jul08 (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of CAGED MISTRESS by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
5  CHAMPLIN May16 Apr21 Feb29 Jan15   (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.00 39% 1.50    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of NOW I KNOW by PURE PRIZE)
6  GULFSTREAM WAY Oct06 Sep16 Aug04 Jul01 May26 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 122 10.00    
  (by GEMOLOGIST out of CLEVER COOKIE by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  SCOTLAND Jun22 May30 May02 Sep23 Aug26 (mott will)TORRES A 122 5.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of GEMSWICK PARK by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
ELP-9   07/21/2024 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KISS BLUE Jun15         (mott rile)TORRES A 118 8.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of KISS THE DEVIL by KRIS S.)
2  TONALITE Jun07 May01 Apr05 Oct27 Aug18 (oliver vic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TONALIST out of LEGAL LIMIT by INTO MISCHIEF)
3  I AM THE SAUCE Jun28 May25       (lovell miche)TORRES A 118 8.00 8% 11.90    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of LIKE A QUEEN by CORINTHIAN (IRE))
SCR  ONE LIFE LIVE IT Jun25         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of DOWNDRAFT by WARRIOR'S REWARD)
5  MOONLIGHT GAMBLER Jun15 May09 Apr05 Feb21 Oct27 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 23% 3.40    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of TREASURED UP by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
6  MY SEXY BLONDE Jul05 Jun07 Mar07 Feb21 Jan10 (taylor brent)CASTANON L 118 30.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of BARBETTE by HIGH YIELD)
7  MY BRAZILIAN GIRL Jun29 Oct24 Sep23     (wadsworth)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 3.00 41% 1.40    
  (by GOLDEN LAD out of WALTZING CAT by MORE THAN READY)
8  NOVARA Jun07 Apr19 Mar09 Aug26   (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SENTIERO ITALIA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  ILLUSION Jun25 May25 Apr20 Mar28   (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
10  STEPHANIESWARRIOR May25 Apr05 Mar01 Jan24 Dec13 (capps a)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of ANCIENT GODDESS by IFFRAAJ)
11  FOR LOVE AND HONOR May27 May04 Apr18 Mar06 Feb14 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 5.00    
  (by SKY MESA out of CALIDEZ by SPRING AT LAST)
12  BEAUTIFUL PHARAOH Jun20         (michael b)BEALMEAR C 111 20.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of EASY LIVING by BIG BROWN)
13  PUBLIC ASSEMBLY Nov04         (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of ENCHANTING KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  WHAPPEN Jun09         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of BONBOURBON by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.