Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Monday - May 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/4)-(3/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/4)-(3/5/4)-(3/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/4)-(3/8/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/4)-(3/8/7/2)-(3/7/6/8/10) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/8/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/8/7/2)-(3/7/6/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/8/7/2)-(3/7/6/8/10)-(4/10/9/6/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-3   WIN (3/7/6/8/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/7/6/8/10)-(3/7/6/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/7/6/8/10)-(3/7/6/8/10)-(3/7/6/8/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/7/6/8/10)-(4/10/9/6/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (3/7/6/8/10)-(4/10/9/6/7)-(6/7/4) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/10/9/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/10/9/6/7)-(4/10/9/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/10/9/6/7)-(4/10/9/6/7)-(4/10/9/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/10/9/6/7)-(6/7/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/10/9/6/7)-(6/7/4)-(3/8/1/6/2) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/4)-(6/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/4)-(6/7/4)-(6/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/4)-(3/8/1/6/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/7/4)-(3/8/1/6/2)-(1/5/2/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/8/1/6/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/8/1/6/2)-(3/8/1/6/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/8/1/6/2)-(3/8/1/6/2)-(3/8/1/6/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/8/1/6/2)-(1/5/2/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/8/1/6/2)-(1/5/2/8)-(5/1/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/5/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/2/8)-(1/5/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/2/8)-(1/5/2/8)-(1/5/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/2/8)-(5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/2/8)-(5/1/3)-(5/9/10/1/12) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/3)-(5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/3)-(5/9/10/1/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (5/9/10/1/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/9/10/1/12)-(5/9/10/1/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/9/10/1/12)-(5/9/10/1/12)-(5/9/10/1/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/29/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCKY PHOENIX Sep22 Aug21       (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 5.00    
2  ORIGAMI GIRL May05 Mar25 Nov18     (devaux che)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 2.50    
3  LOTSANDLOTSOFGOLD May02 Apr13 Feb09 Dec19 Jul30 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 126 3.00 44% 1.30    
4  MERRILY RUSH May04         (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 111 8.00 12% 7.50    
5  MALIBU SMART Apr01         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 2.00 16% 5.20    
6  EMBRACEABLE May02         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
 
CD-2   05/29/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAYTOWN KITTY CAT Apr12         (mcentee paul)ELLIOTT JANE 116 15.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ELEMENTSOFHARMONY by EXCHANGE RATE)
2  BAYTOWN CHATTERBOX         (mcentee paul)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 7% 13.40    
  (by STREET SENSE out of ENDLESS CHATTER by FIRST SAMURAI)
3  GEWURZTRAMINER Apr26         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 3.00 36% 1.80    
  (by COLLECTED out of SKY MIRAGE by SKY MESA)
4  MIDNIGHT STORMY May11         (minnock g)NAVAS YOEL 112 10.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of AVA G by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
5  KENNEL CLUB         (caramori )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of LA BELLE CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  WOODCOURT Apr20         (ennis jo)RODRIGUEZ A 114 3.50    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of WARRIORESS by POWERFUL VENUE)
7  INMYDREAMS         (corrigan jim)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 5.00 7% 12.90    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of WINTER EVENING by EXCHANGE RATE)
8  FIVE O' SOMEWHERE May11         (spraggins )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 2.50 23% 3.30    
  (by MUNNINGS out of VIVA SHEILA by TIZNOW)
 
CD-3   05/29/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 3 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHICA DE ORO Apr27 Mar31 Feb08 Jan05   (tomlinson michael )GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
2  NOMADIC PRIDE Mar25 Feb24 Dec01 Oct30 Sep30 (amoss thomas )GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
3  WONDERFULL LADY (FR) Apr14         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 2.50 50% 1.00    
4  EMBRACE ME Apr14 Feb10 Dec22 Nov19 Oct27 (catalano way)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00    
5  CLOUDY BAY Apr27 Mar12 Feb12 Dec28 Dec04 (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
6  MO SHIRO May02 Mar02 Feb05 Dec31 Dec01 (catalano way)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 8% 11.10    
7  SHOPLIFTER Apr16 Feb25 Nov04 Sep17 Aug14 (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.00 11% 8.20    
8  KNOCKYOURSOCKSOFF Apr14 Feb18 Nov26 Oct07 Sep03 (goldfine m)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 8.00 7% 13.70    
9  C C CRUISE CONTROL May12 Apr14 Oct28 Oct07 Sep03 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 10.00    
10  SANTA FE GOLD Apr22 Mar25 Jan27 Oct07 Sep15 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   05/29/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROYAL AIR FORCE May05 Apr08 Apr02 Jan30 Jan07 (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 125 5.00    
SCR  CLOSE KNIT Apr14 Mar11 Jan28 Dec29 Nov23 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 118 8.00    
3  SPUNS SON Apr29 Dec29 Nov30 Nov19 Oct12 (taylor brent)GILLIGAN JACK 125 20.00    
4  STORM STRATEGY May05 Apr22 Apr02 Mar10 Feb03 (asmussen s)MICHEL MICKAELLE 125 4.00 32% 2.10    
5  MOON OVER DUBAI Apr30 Mar19 Feb17 Dec31 Oct30 (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
6  T LAW May15 Apr29       (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00 5% 18.60    
7  SCHMEAR May14 Oct23       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  NOBLE CONNECTION May12 Apr14 Mar10 Jul30   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
9  MY FAVORITE UNCLE Apr29 Mar11 Feb25 Feb10 Feb01 (capps a)BEJARANO R 125 4.00 11% 8.00    
10  NORTHWIND Apr14 Feb03       (sharp joe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 3.50 31% 2.30    
 
CD-5   05/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MORNING DRIVE May05 Mar19 Mar12 Mar02 Jan20 (lauer mich)MICHEL MICKAELLE 123 15.00    
2  BORN FLAWLESS May12 Apr12 Feb20 Jan28 Dec09 (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00    
SCR  VOBISCUM Mar23 Feb17 Jan22 Apr23   (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 123 3.50    
4  BABY QUINN May21 Apr12 Jun22 May19 May03 (amoss tho)HERNANDEZ J 123 3.00 13% 6.40    
5  MULTI PLATINUM May03 Apr18 Mar11 Feb26 Jan15 (santamari)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 10.00    
6  LEMON DROP SHOT May03 Mar31 Mar17 Feb18 Jan27 (wong jonatha)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 2.00 32% 2.10    
7  CARBONITE Jan14 Dec16 Nov24 Nov09 Oct09 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 123 5.00 31% 2.20    
 
CD-6   05/29/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANGASTON Apr22 Feb18       (barkley ja)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 3.50 11% 8.30    
2  FRIAR LAURENCE Apr26 Mar23 Jan18 Nov21 Oct22 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  AGENT PETER GRAVES May02 Mar04 Jan19 Dec24 Oct23 (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.00 42% 1.40    
4  DIAMOND CITY May02 Apr08 Mar30 Mar10 Feb10 (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 121 15.00    
SCR  SHEKKY SHEBAZ Apr02 Mar04 Feb11 Nov24 Oct30 (drexler ma)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 5.00    
6  PRIME FACTOR Dec17 Oct27 Aug10 May15 Mar05 (devaux che)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  LET MY PEOPLE GO Apr16 Dec02 Nov17 Nov04 Oct14 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 30.00    
8  GREGORY'S PRIDE Apr21 Feb05 Nov05 Sep10 Aug18 (d'amato phil)GEROUX FLORENT 123 3.00 27% 2.70    
9  MAJOR BLUE May06 Apr08 Mar23 Mar11 Feb18 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 116 20.00    
10  SAIL AT SUNRISE Apr19 Nov17 Oct07 Aug19 Jul17 (jazdzews)RODRIGUEZ A 116 30.00    
11  SUTHERLAND May05 Mar16 Feb12 Dec31 Dec04 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
SCR  NINJA WARRIOR Apr22 Mar31 Feb18 Jan28 Dec18 (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00    
SCR  ONE FOR RICHIE May04 Apr07 Mar09 Jan28 Jan01 (contreras )HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50    
SCR  WILLTORUN May02 Apr08 Feb25 Jan14 Dec17 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00    
 
CD-7   05/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LITTLE SISTER SUE Mar31 Feb25 Jan21 Dec22 Oct26 (reed r)MCKEE J 124 3.00 58% 0.70    
2  GOODBYE FOG         (hobby steve)ROCCO S 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  BRYLEE Apr19 Feb15 Jan18 Nov18   (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 6.00    
4  MYSTIFY (GB) Apr08 Mar11 Feb17 Jan08 Dec11 (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50    
5  RED HOT JEANIE May04 Apr01       (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.00 11% 7.80    
6  STORM HAVEN Oct26 Sep16       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 124 4.50    
7  BAMBEROOSKI May06 Mar09 Feb23 Jan25 Dec15 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
8  ITSABLINGTHING May04 Apr15       (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-8   05/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC12 FAST Winning Colors Purse ($225K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPIRIT WIND Mar31 Jul02 May21 Mar19 Feb18 (nicks ralp)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 20% 4.10    
  (by BAHAMIAN SQUALL out of SACRED PSALM by AWESOME OF COURSE)
SCR  SCARLET STRIPE May04 Dec29 Nov27 Oct28 Oct01 (beckman d )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of DIVINE DAWN by DIVINE PARK)
3  MARISSA'S LADY Jul16 May06 Mar26 Mar05 Feb12 (morey e)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 5% 17.80    
  (by VIOLENCE out of MARISSA'S JOY by CEE'S TIZZY)
4  LAST LEAF Apr29 Mar11 Jan28 Dec03 Oct22 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MY MISS KALLIE by PADDY O'PRADO)
5  ECHO ZULU Nov05 Sep24 May06 Mar26   (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 118 0.80 48% 1.10    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of LETGOMYECHO by MENIFEE)
6  FIRE ON TIME May12 Mar11 Jan28 Dec03 Nov20 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE by AWESOME AGAIN)
 
CD-9   05/29/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLESSING THE FLAG May03 Mar23 Feb25 Jan28 Nov03 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 125 12.00 5% 18.60    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of FLY THE FLAG by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  MAD CAPER Mar11 Feb16       (bauer philip )CANNON DECLAN 125 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of WIND CAPER by TOUCH GOLD)
3  ABBREVIATION Apr29 Apr07 Feb24 Jan13   (mott riley)ROCCO S 118 15.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of NO ACRONYMS by MILWAUKEE BREW)
4  LADY DYNAMO Apr19 Mar12       (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of SEAUXBELLE by DYNAFORMER)
5  BOPPY Mar25         (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 3.00 35% 1.90    
  (by BLAME out of DARING DANCER by EMPIRE MAKER)
6  SUMMERTIME ROSE Apr23 Apr01 Mar09 Dec31   (sharp joe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 12.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of MAGICALCARPETRIDE by SMART STRIKE)
7  DIXIE SUPREME May18 Mar09       (murphy co)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of CODETTA by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
8  HARMONICA Jan11 Nov26 Oct12     (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of SINGING KITTY by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
9  SRI LANKA Jan29 Dec11       (walsh brenda)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 25% 3.10    
  (by MUNNINGS out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
10  FREYDIS THE RED (FR) Apr23 Nov20 Oct01 Sep04 Jul31 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 13% 6.60    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SONGERIE by ENTICED)
11  ROSY TOMORROWS Apr23 Mar11       (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of RESTLESS SPIRIT by UNKNOWN)
12  HOLY FOLEY May03 Apr01 Feb16 Nov10 Sep10 (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of BELISSIMO by AWESOME AGAIN)
SCR  FIRST HILL May06 Apr20 Mar09 Feb16 Jan13 (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 15.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of SINGLET by REAL QUIET)
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE Apr28 Apr13 Mar24 Mar05 Feb18 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CARRIE by GONE ASTRAY)
SCR  MY TALLULAH Apr07         (mott rile)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of CHIT CHATTER by LOST SOLDIER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.