Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Tuesday - April 29, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/1/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/6/7)-(4/1/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/6/7)-(4/1/6/7)-(4/1/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/6/7)-(3/7/2/1/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/1/6/7)-(3/7/2/1/5)-(2/10/1/4/3) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-2   WIN (3/7/2/1/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/7/2/1/5)-(3/7/2/1/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/7/2/1/5)-(3/7/2/1/5)-(3/7/2/1/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/7/2/1/5)-(2/10/1/4/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2/1/5)-(2/10/1/4/3)-(13/2/1/7/10) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-3   WIN (2/10/1/4/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/10/1/4/3)-(2/10/1/4/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/10/1/4/3)-(2/10/1/4/3)-(2/10/1/4/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/10/1/4/3)-(13/2/1/7/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/10/1/4/3)-(13/2/1/7/10)-(6/1/12/4/5) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-4   WIN (13/2/1/7/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (13/2/1/7/10)-(13/2/1/7/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (13/2/1/7/10)-(13/2/1/7/10)-(13/2/1/7/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (13/2/1/7/10)-(6/1/12/4/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (13/2/1/7/10)-(6/1/12/4/5)-(7/6/9/1) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-5   WIN (6/1/12/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/1/12/4/5)-(6/1/12/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/1/12/4/5)-(6/1/12/4/5)-(6/1/12/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/1/12/4/5)-(7/6/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/1/12/4/5)-(7/6/9/1)-(4/7/8/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/6/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/9/1)-(7/6/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/9/1)-(7/6/9/1)-(7/6/9/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/9/1)-(4/7/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/6/9/1)-(4/7/8/1)-(1/6/11/9/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/7/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/8/1)-(4/7/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/8/1)-(4/7/8/1)-(4/7/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7/8/1)-(1/6/11/9/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/7/8/1)-(1/6/11/9/8)-(9/4/1/6/14) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (1/6/11/9/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/6/11/9/8)-(1/6/11/9/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/6/11/9/8)-(1/6/11/9/8)-(1/6/11/9/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/6/11/9/8)-(9/4/1/6/14) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-9   WIN (9/4/1/6/14) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/4/1/6/14)-(9/4/1/6/14) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/4/1/6/14)-(9/4/1/6/14)-(9/4/1/6/14) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   04/29/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NIKOLAOU Mar15 Feb28 Feb01 Dec02 Oct28 (dixon jr)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 23% 3.40    
2  PAYNTER'S CANVAS Mar23 Jan25 Jan05 Dec13 Nov11 (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
3  HARVARD Mar05 Feb08 Dec26 Nov21 Nov03 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
4  BUSINESS MODEL Mar22 Nov20 Nov02 Oct05 Sep21 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 118 2.00 46% 1.20    
5  SHOW TIME Mar23 Mar01 Feb01 Dec13 Oct23 (cunningham j)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00    
6  TWIRLING TROILLET Feb15 Jan24 Jan03 Nov29 Nov13 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  COUPERIN Mar13 Feb07 Dec13 Nov21 Oct24 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-2   04/29/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($35K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET SIB Feb28 Jan31 Jan04 Oct16 Sep17 (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 5% 17.90    
2  MISS COLLECTED Mar12 Feb05 Nov15     (mckeever andrew)CURTIS BEN 118 6.00 10% 9.30    
3  READYTORISKITALL Mar30 Mar08       (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 118 2.50 49% 1.10    
4  BOUJI IS A WORD Nov18 Oct22 Oct11 Sep26   (schlenk k)EMIGH A 118 30.00    
5  BETO'S BIRDIE         (heath g)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
6  NIGHT CRY Feb27 Jan29 Dec28 Jul13   (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 126 30.00    
7  RED ROYALTY Apr16 Mar12 Feb14 Nov23   (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 8.00 13% 6.60    
8  JUDY'S FLYER Mar12 Jan29 Jan02 Nov17 Oct30 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 8.00    
9  HAND IT OVER Mar20 Feb28 Dec28 Sep27 Jul28 (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 126 20.00    
SCR  COOLNESS         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
11  GENUINE ARTICLE Apr04         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
12  UNION DAME Apr13 Mar22 Feb17 Jun19 May24 (santamaria c)GEROUX FLORENT 126 5.00    
 
CD-3   04/29/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLD SEARCH Feb15 Nov13 Sep21 Aug31 Feb11 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.50 6% 15.40    
2  RIVALRY Mar28 Mar02 Mar14 Jan28 Jan06 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.00 63% 0.60    
3  SON OF A GRAY Mar20 Mar06 Feb21 Jan31 Jan02 (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  QUEBRANCHO Jan18 Dec19 Nov23 Oct20 Sep26 (bahena ism)CORRALES GERARDO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  BEER WITH ICE Jul28 Jul04 May24 Apr27 Mar24 (kordenbrock m)LEBRON VICTOR 124 15.00    
6  DANCING NOAH Mar06 Feb23 Jan31 Jan04 Oct16 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 124 20.00    
7  MERLOTTI Jan02 Nov22 Nov01 Sep26 Sep08 (wainwright)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 15.00    
8  SPOONIE Apr04 Mar15 Feb28 Feb13 Jan25 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 126 2.50    
9  SACKETT Sep07 Aug12 May09 Apr21   (mccutchen jas)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
10  MORE THAN FIVE Mar08 Feb17 Feb07 Jan03 Dec20 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ MARIO 124 5.00 9% 10.40    
 
CD-4   04/29/2025 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FULL ARMOR Mar07 Sep12 Aug03 Jun20 Jun06 (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 120 5.00 5% 19.00    
2  HOUSE UNITED Mar01 Feb01 Jan01 Oct30 Sep14 (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 125 5.00 16% 5.20    
3  RAGUEL Feb01 Jan04 Jul06 Jun07 Apr21 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.50    
SCR  FUNNYFLAME Mar16 Feb15 Jan18 Jun30 Jun07 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 125 3.50    
5  CONSECRATED Mar18 Feb22 Jan20 Dec29 Dec06 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 118 6.00    
6  DEVIL ANSE Mar07 Feb12 Dec19     (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
7  SPRINT OUT PASS Apr06 Mar08 Feb14 Jan17 Oct12 (medina robert)ROSARIO JOEL 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  CHRIS'S REVENGE Jan31 Dec21 Nov24 Oct24 Sep28 (russell britt)ORTIZ JR 118 6.00    
SCR  KISTLER Apr10 Mar15 Feb05 Jan16 Oct25 (king l)ROCCO S 125 30.00    
10  WARRIOR WAYNE Mar22 Feb15 Dec21     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  INDY MAGIC Apr12 Mar29 Mar01 Aug24 Jun30 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 125 3.50    
SCR  CABERNAYDO Feb21 Dec21 Oct11 Sep15 Aug18 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 125 4.50    
13  SMART MO Apr10 Feb08 Jan01 Aug03 Jun16 (sweezey ke)GEROUX FLORENT 125 3.00 56% 0.80    
SCR  RACHMAN Mar05 Feb15 Jan25 Nov13 Oct28 (waltz brian)MACHADO LUAN 125 5.00    
 
CD-5   04/29/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FUN TO RUN Feb08 Jan16 Nov27 Oct30 Oct02 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 4.00 14% 6.20    
2  STARLIT SOFI Mar26 Mar13 Jan03 Nov13 Oct16 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 124 6.00    
SCR  KRICKLE Mar26 Dec13 Nov22 Oct24 Oct16 (west m)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 5.00    
4  STARCOURT Apr11 Mar17 Feb12 Jan16 Dec27 (roberson den)TORRES A 124 8.00 13% 6.80    
5  UNITED FOREVER Apr12 Mar22 Mar05 Feb14 Jan30 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  UP ON THE EDGE Mar14 Feb14 Feb03 Dec20 Nov01 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.50 26% 2.80    
SCR  LADLE Apr11 Feb26 Feb01 Oct05 Sep20 (miller jerom)MURRAY M 124 30.00    
8  RED WINE LADY Apr11 Mar20 Feb27 Feb06 Jan16 (demeritt)RODRIGUEZ A 124 20.00    
9  YES TO CHAMPAGNE Mar28 Dec20 Nov27 Nov09 Oct24 (shorter aaron)MACHADO LUAN 124 6.00    
10  LADY RILEY Mar23 Nov29 Sep19 Aug17 Jul21 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 15.00    
11  SWEET LILIBET Mar26 Feb28 Jan30 Dec05 Sep09 (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 124 30.00    
12  HEARTS UNITED Mar21 Feb26 Jan26 Nov24 Sep28 (tomlinson micha)LANERIE J 118 12.00 13% 6.80    
SCR  SHE STOPPED SHORT Apr09 Mar26 Mar09 Feb05 Jan03 (campbell jo)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 15.00    
 
CD-6   04/29/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLOSING PRAYER Mar06 Jan04 Dec07 Jun02 May19 (baker james)MONCADA IRVING 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  DIDN'T IT RAIN Mar23 Nov30       (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
3  POUR A LITTLE MORE Dec12 Nov09       (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 125 6.00    
SCR  MY SEXY BLONDE Feb05 Sep07 Aug18 Jul21 Jul05 (taylor b)RODRIGUEZ A 125 30.00    
SCR  CHANDON Apr11 Mar22 Mar06 Jan23 Jan02 (barker w)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
6  OCEAN RIPPLE Mar28 Mar02 Sep08     (jacobson d)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 26% 2.90    
7  MARTINGALE Apr12 Feb20 Jan27 Jul12 Jun21 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 125 2.50 36% 1.70    
8  PURE BREEZE Sep11 Sep01       (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 4.50    
9  WELL AWARE Mar26 Aug04 Jun24     (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 14% 6.10    
 
CD-7   04/29/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORT SAM Mar19 Jul28 Jun09     (fawkes david)SAEZ LUIS 126 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  PENTATHLON Apr08 Nov10 Oct12 Sep20 Aug15 (mcgaughey clau)ROSARIO JOEL 124 5.00    
3  LOU'S LEGACY Apr08 Mar01 Feb08 Jan04 Nov28 (andrade hugo)JIMENEZ ALBIN 124 20.00    
4  G T FIVE HUNDRED Apr04 Mar09 Feb02 Jan17 Dec27 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 49% 1.00    
5  RISK IT Apr08 Mar04 Jan23 Dec21 Nov23 (asmussen steve)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 5.00    
SCR  MARCH OF TIME Jan31 Dec27 Dec16     (baffert bob)ORTIZ JR 124 1.60    
7  ROCKETEER Oct12 Aug17 Jul21 Jun09 Apr10 (joseph saffi)ZAYAS J 124 4.00 22% 3.50    
8  LIL MUGGS Mar14 Feb08 Jan11 Nov30 Oct27 (foley greg)ORTIZ L 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-8   04/29/2025 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WEST HOLLYWOOD Apr08 Aug30 Jul27 Jun20 May10 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 2.50 35% 1.90    
2  TALL BOY Apr08 May02 Apr12 Mar07 Dec09 (o'neill doug)MACHADO LUAN 123 12.00    
3  TAPIT SHOES Mar22 Feb15 Jan24 Dec28 Dec14 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 123 8.00    
4  OUT OF DEDUCTIONS Apr08 Mar06 Jan25 Dec26 Nov23 (block chris)COHEN DAVID 123 5.00    
5  MIRANDA RIGHTS Aug29 Aug03 Jun22 May31 May02 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 123 5.00    
6  HIGGINS BOAT Mar22 Feb15 Dec28 Nov28 Nov01 (amoss thomas )CANNON DECLAN 123 3.50 30% 2.40    
SCR  TIMEOUT Apr08 Feb15 Jan16 Nov10 Sep21 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 123 15.00    
8  NATIVE SHAMAN Feb05 Nov29 Oct25 Sep26 Aug24 (arnold r)LANERIE J 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  EVENT DETAIL Mar27 Dec14 Oct16 Sep15 Aug03 (walden william)ROSARIO JOEL 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
10  CALL PROTECTION Mar14 Feb12 Dec28 Oct26 Aug29 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00    
11  IN A JAM Mar14 Jan25 Dec14 Nov02 Oct03 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 123 8.00 6% 15.20    
 
CD-9   04/29/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DESERT AIRE Jan30 Jan16 Oct26 Sep14 Aug24 (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 7% 12.50    
2  HOTLINE BLINK Apr13 Mar19 Mar01 Jan29 Dec24 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 6.00    
SCR  MUBAREZ Mar07 Jan15 Nov01     (simms jr)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
4  HIGH FIVE SY Mar28 Feb05 Jan03 Dec12 Sep15 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 126 6.00 12% 7.30    
5  DAN D'ORO Mar14 Jan10 Dec22 Dec06 Nov24 (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 118 8.00    
6  PROMISSIONE Apr06 Mar12 Feb14 Jan05 Dec07 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00 6% 16.20    
SCR  EGYPTIAN QUEST Mar05 Feb21 Jan31 Jan18 Dec08 (adams nanc)VILLARREAL OSCAR 126 20.00    
8  BOURBON STATE Mar27 Feb27 Sep11 Aug05   (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 118 15.00    
9  CATALINA CAT Apr06 Feb21 Jan16     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 50% 1.00    
10  JACK RABBIT Apr13 Mar14       (williamson b)TORRES A 126 20.00    
11  GHOST PRINCE Sep26 Sep12 Aug04 Jul11 Mar21 (quartarolo an)GARCIA MARTIN 126 20.00    
12  MARAVICH Apr13 Dec21 Oct14 Feb03   (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 126 12.00    
SCR  BOURBON STREET BOY Apr13         (catalano m)CURTIS BEN 118 12.00    
14  TRAP LINE Apr02 Mar15 Jan23 Nov06 Sep20 (fernandez e)LAGUNES GABRIEL 126 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PURDY DARN GOOD Mar27 Jan30 Dec19 Oct22   (matthews randy)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00    
16  PLAYING CUPID Mar26 Mar06       (navarrete anna)SANJUR SANTO 118 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.