Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 19, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/1)-(2/1/8/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1)-(2/1/8/6)-(2/1/8/6) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (2/1)-(2/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/1)-(2/1/5)-(6/8/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/5)-(2/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/5)-(2/1/5)-(2/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/5)-(6/8/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/5)-(6/8/3)-(6/4/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/8/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/8/3)-(6/8/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/8/3)-(6/8/2/3)-(6/8/2/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/8/3)-(6/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/8/3)-(6/4/3)-(4/3/5/1/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/3)-(6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/3)-(4/3/5/1/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/4/3)-(4/3/5/1/6)-(10/14/1/9/6) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/3/5/1/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/3/5/1/6)-(4/3/5/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/3/5/1/6)-(4/3/5/1/6)-(4/3/5/1/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/3/5/1/6)-(10/14/1/9/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5/1/6)-(10/14/1/9/6)-(6/4/7/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-6   WIN (10/14/1/9/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/14/1/9/6)-(10/14/1/9/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/14/1/9/6)-(10/14/1/9/6)-(10/14/1/9/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/14/1/9/6)-(6/4/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/14/1/9/6)-(6/4/7/5)-(10/11/4/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (6/4/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/7/5)-(6/4/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/7/5)-(6/4/7/5)-(6/4/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/7/5)-(10/11/4/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-8   WIN (10/11/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/11/4/7)-(10/11/4/9/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/11/4/7)-(10/11/4/9/7)-(10/11/4/9/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/19/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BENEVOLENCE Aug10         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  CITY COCKTAILS Aug17 Jul13       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 67% 0.50    
3  MERCY OTIS Aug25 Jul21 Jun22     (barrett roddi)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
4  LADY RILEY Aug17 Jul21       (davis christop)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
SCR  MARY LOVES LOUIE Sep10 Jul30 Jul16 Jun28   (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
6  REIGN CHAMPAGNE Aug31 Jul29 Jun28     (wilkes ian)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 ★    
7  AIRFORCE LIGHTNING Aug26         (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
8  BISA Sep08 Aug22 Jul31 Jul13 Jun16 (caramori eduardo)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 ★    
 
CD-2   09/19/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WINDY BAY Aug19 Jun22 Jun05 May09 Apr04 (mott riley)ORTIZ L 121 2.50 12% 7.10    
2  DECK OF CARDS Aug03 Jul17 Jun21 Apr22 Feb15 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 121 0.80 55% 0.80    
3  BIG DIG Aug05 Jun26 Jun15 May14 Apr21 (bahena ism)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00    
4  CHIQUITA MOSCA Aug21 Jul27 Jul17 Jun30 Jun22 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 20.00    
5  PUNCHY GIRL Aug17 Jun27 May23 May03 Apr13 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  PENS STREET Aug25 Jul27 Jun21 Apr27 Mar17 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 3.00    
 
CD-3   09/19/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GATHER THE FACTS Aug24 Jul26 Jun07 May02 Mar10 (barnett bobb)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 15.00    
2  SARANAC LAKE Aug13 Jul09 Jun09 May01 Mar23 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 ★    
3  BENET Aug30 Jun06 May09     (hiles je)SANTANA JR 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  DAME MAUDE CHARDIN Aug19 Jul22 Jun27     (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
5  ELODINE Aug25 Jul25 Jun30 Jun12 May12 (lopez elia)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 5.00    
6  TWO LUCYS Aug16 Jul14 May29 Apr17 Mar28 (mckeever and)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.00 60% 0.70    
7  TIZ SALTY Aug26 Jul27 Jun26     (thompson michae)ACHARD ALEX 120 12.00    
8  NO SHOW Jul26 May31 Apr21 Mar29 Mar08 (danner kelse)TORRES A 120 12.00 11% 7.70    
 
CD-4   09/19/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AVALON GIRL Jul13 Jun12 Nov22     (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00    
SCR  MOMBAYLA Aug26 Jul27       (tomlinson mic)CANNON DECLAN 121 5.00    
3  DIA ESTELAR (ARG)         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  QUEEN CLANCY Aug25 Jul27 May25 Apr28 Mar22 (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 6.00 29% 2.40    
SCR  STACKING TENS Aug23         (guida anthony)LEBRON VICTOR 121 20.00    
6  YO LEVEN Aug18 Jul29 Jun20 May16   (baker james)GRAHAM J 121 10.00 40% 1.50    
SCR  JAZZ PARTY Aug19 Jul27       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50    
8  CONNIVE         (drury j)ORTIZ L 121 8.00    
SCR  BABY SASSICAIA Apr18 Nov10 Sep22 Aug13   (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
 
CD-5   09/19/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I GOT GAME Aug03 Jun20 May30     (amoss thomas)TORRES A 119 4.50 17% 5.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of BABY NINA by FLATTER)
2  SONIC SKIDADDLE         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of CHICA BOOM CHIC by TAPIT)
3  COCKTAILSNKRINGLE Aug24         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 5.00 21% 3.80    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of CASUAL COCKTAIL by MAGNA GRADUATE)
4  ADMIRAL DENNIS         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50 22% 3.60    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of GULF COAST by UNION RAGS)
5  POPPA ECHO Aug24         (milligan )TORRES A 119 6.00 18% 4.60    
  (by ECHO TOWN out of QUEEN OF ACES by STREET BOSS)
6  ZAP D'ETAT Aug19 Jul28       (house )LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of SHOVALLA by GHOSTZAPPER)
7  MAJOR DAX         (hiles a)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of WAR OFFICE by WAR FRONT)
SCR  SPEED KING         (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of ATHENIAN BEAUTY by CORINTHIAN (IRE))
SCR  MONSIEUR BIG MAN         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 6.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of MAGICALCARPETRIDE by SMART STRIKE)
10  BIG MUCH         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 12.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of TRUST by BODEMEISTER)
11  PRIDE'S PRINCE         (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of TONASAH by MALIBU MOON)
12  TETHERED SOUL         (gutierrez faust)VAZQUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ASCOT DAY by STREET SENSE)
SCR  WINTER CREEK Aug20         (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
  (by CONNECT out of PIKE CREEK by FOREST CAMP)
14  KICKING CLEAR         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of CHEEKY CHARM by A.P. INDY)
 
CD-6   09/19/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRUNACINI Jul28         (sims p)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 11% 8.40    
2  KING RUSSELL Aug18 Jul21 May24 Apr28 Mar30 (moquett )SANTANA JR 122 15.00    
3  KINETIC Aug03 Jun21       (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00    
4  MIDNIGHT RAID Jul21 Jun09 May10 Apr12 Mar03 (casse w)LANERIE J 122 8.00    
5  REDEMPTION TIME Aug19 Dec30 Nov17 Oct19 Sep17 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 30.00    
6  WILL TAKE IT Aug24 Jun30 Jun02 Apr27 Mar30 (milligan )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  GLEN AIRY Jul21 Jun27 May27 Apr19 Feb08 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00    
SCR  OUR DREAM RYE'D Aug18 Jul21 Jul04 May27 Apr18 (stinson wi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 15.00    
9  METALHEAD Aug12 Jul16       (morey william )MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 8% 11.90    
10  GENEROUS TIPPER Oct07 Aug28 Aug05 Jul14   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 29% 2.50    
SCR  NATIVE SHAMAN Aug24 Jul29 Jun09 May15   (arnold ge)TORRES A 118 15.00    
12  CULPRIT Jul28 Jun23 May04 Jul23 Jun22 (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00    
SCR  WINSTON WOLF Aug18 Jul21 Jun23 May27 May09 (amoss tho)TORRES A 122 12.00    
14  YELLOW BRICK Sep05 Jul20 Apr27 Mar23 Feb24 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  MULTITASK Aug24 Jul28 Jun19     (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 120 6.00    
 
CD-7   09/19/2024 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT WEST Aug29 Jul30 Jul16 Jun25 Jun04 (medina tomas)BURGOS ALBERTO 124 20.00    
SCR  GUNTOWN Aug04 Jul06 Jun06 May18 Apr20 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00    
3  HAYES STRIKE Jun08 May11 Apr13 Mar09 Feb17 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
4  SALUTE THE STARS Jul11 Jun12 Sep09 Jul22 Jun17 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 29% 2.50    
5  OSCAR ECLIPSE Jul14 Jun15 May04 Mar30 Sep23 (lynch bri)TORRES A 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  BENDOOG Aug23 Jun08 Apr28 Apr06 Nov19 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 122 1.40 44% 1.30    
7  GUNOE Nov30 Oct23 Sep11 Jul06 May08 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  PIPELINE Aug11 May03 Apr10 Jan27 Dec02 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 8.00    
 
CD-8   09/19/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S SPLENDID May16 Apr19 Mar09 Feb08 Jan18 (tomlinson mic)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
2  GOLDBLOODED Aug26 Aug03 Aug27 Jul02 May20 (fernandez edwa)ASHTON GAVIN 121 20.00    
SCR  MOON FLEET Aug17 Jul13 May31 May04 Apr17 (roberson denni)CASTANON L 118 15.00    
4  SISTER ELLA Aug05 May31 May04 Apr14 Mar23 (puhich mi)BEALMEAR C 111 20.00 10% 8.80    
5  THE BIG CALHOUNA Aug24 Jun27 Jun08 May16 Apr21 (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
SCR  CAROLINA CANDY Jul06 Jun20 Jun02 Apr25 Oct06 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
7  CALL ME PENNY Aug30 Jul18 May25 Apr29 Mar31 (caramori edu)TORRES A 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  MISS PEABODY Jul22 Jun15 Sep13 Aug05 Jun24 (newton tro)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00    
9  THREE POLKS Aug15 Jul07 May31 May02 Feb17 (ortiz alex)VAZQUEZ A 121 6.00 ★    
10  HOUSE OF MAGIC Feb16 Jan12 Nov23 Oct21 Aug25 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 121 4.50 55% 0.80    
11  END OF INNOCENCE Jul29 Jun19 May23 Sep21 Aug02 (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 13% 6.80    
SCR  KRICKLE Aug24 Jun28 May30 May09 Jan26 (holsapple)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.