Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Thursday - April 27, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (3/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/7)-(3/8/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/1/7)-(3/8/1/7)-(3/8/1/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/1/7)-(10) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/1/7)-(10)-(2/6/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
KEE-2   WIN (10) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (10)-(10/7/9) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI (10)-(10/7/9)-(10/7/9) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
    DD (10)-(2/6/4/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (10)-(2/6/4/7)-(2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
KEE-3   WIN (2/6/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/4/7)-(2/6/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/4/7)-(2/6/4/7)-(2/6/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/4/7)-(2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (2/6/4/7)-(2)-(4/9/5/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
KEE-4   WIN (2) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (2)-(2/7/3/11) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (2)-(2/7/3/11)-(2/7/3/11) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2)-(4/9/5/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (2)-(4/9/5/3)-(8) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
KEE-5   WIN (4/9/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/9/5/3)-(4/9/5/3/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
KEE-6   WIN (8) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (8)-(8/3/6/7) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (8)-(8/3/6/7)-(8/3/6/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8)-(5/3/4/7/10) 5 $1.00 $5.00 
    PK3 (8)-(5/3/4/7/10)-(3/7/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-7   WIN (5/3/4/7/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/3/4/7/10)-(5/3/4/7/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/3/4/7/10)-(5/3/4/7/10)-(5/3/4/7/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/3/4/7/10)-(3/7/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/3/4/7/10)-(3/7/5/4)-(12/10/2/5/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-8   WIN (3/7/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/5/4)-(3/7/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/5/4)-(3/7/5/4)-(3/7/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/5/4)-(12/10/2/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-9   WIN (12/10/2/5/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/10/2/5/4)-(12/10/2/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/10/2/5/4)-(12/10/2/5/4)-(12/10/2/5/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GIANT AWAKENING Oct02 Aug31 Jul28 Jul08   (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  LEVEL UP Apr13 Nov26 Oct13 Sep10 Aug06 (nihei michell)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.00    
3  KASIMBA         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 113 3.00 66% 0.50    
4  VALUABLE CARGO Jan06         (hamilton sara)GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
5  HYPER SPEED Apr08 Feb24 Sep29 Sep05   (zito p)BEJARANO R 118 4.50    
6  ALL JOKES ASIDE Apr14         (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
7  PLATINUM GHOST Mar15         (hansen scott)STEVENS C 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
8  MANCHESTER Mar16 Mar02 Feb16 Jan26   (engler jeff)LANERIE J 125 1.60 ★    
 
KEE-2   04/27/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KEEPYOURPRANCEON         (mendez luis)STEVENS C 116 10.00    
  (by SIR PRANCEALOT out of SHES A REAL KEEPER by UNUSUAL HEAT)
2  EARLY MUNNY Apr07         (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of PI BELLA by PIONEERING)
3  THE RUSH IS ON Apr13         (vosler eugene)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 30.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CARRIE by GONE ASTRAY)
4  BLAST FURNACE         (weaver george)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of ALIQUIPPA by NATIVE ALLIANCE)
5  SAINT ROCCO         (delacruz meji)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of MAGICAL DANCER by FLAT OUT)
SCR  ORE MINE Apr13         (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 119 15.00 22% 3.50    
  (by KANTHAROS out of GEMSTONE by GEMOLOGIST)
7  CALHOUN         (antonacci )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
  (by UNCLE MO out of LADIES' PRIVILEGE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  CANDYMAKER         (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 119 1.60 27% 2.70    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of CURUZU by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
9  LAUGH NOW         (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 119 30.00 ★    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of LITTLE PAO by TIZNOW)
10  FANDOM (GB)         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 119 2.50 26% 2.90    
  (by UNKNOWN out of BROGAN by NIJINSKY II)
 
KEE-3   04/27/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PATIENCE WORTH Mar04 Feb04 Jan07 Dec03 Oct07 (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 120 6.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of HYSTERICALADY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  ARDEN'S ASSAULT Mar18         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.60 27% 2.70    
  (by VIOLENCE out of CAN'T EXPLAIN by NOT FOR LOVE)
3  UNION HARMONY         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of LESLIE'S HARMONY by CURLIN)
4  MILIEU Mar16 Jan29 Dec11 Oct22 Sep18 (mott william )ORTIZ JR 120 3.50 12% 7.50    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of SLEW'S QUALITY by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SCR  MO TOWN MAYHEM Apr01         (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of TOWN TOUR by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  BLUE TOPAZ Mar31         (foley greg)GRAHAM J 120 4.50 26% 2.90    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CAROLINE COUNTY by TAPIZAR)
7  FAST N HAPPY Mar25 Feb15       (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00 9% 10.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ONE FAST FROG by FIRST SAMURAI)
 
KEE-4   04/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPIRITCATCHER Mar30 Feb24 Feb08 Dec19   (gorder kellyn)LANERIE J 124 15.00    
2  CAMI CAT Mar30 Mar11 Jan21 Dec08 Nov09 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 126 3.00 9% 10.70    
3  SOCIAL MANDATE Apr08 Feb22 Jan18 Dec29 Nov27 (hancock a)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00 ★    
SCR  FAST GAL Jan25 Jan05 Jul17     (romans dale)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00    
SCR  SONNYNEEDSMONEY Feb04 Jan12       (west w)MORALES EDGAR 124 30.00    
6  XTRASAUCEWELLDONE Mar18 Feb22 Jan26 Jan01 Dec07 (nihei mi)RODRIGUEZ A 113 50.00    
7  SWEET BEAUTY Mar03 Jan05 Nov03 Oct08 Jul20 (claire alex)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 3.50 ★    
8  PAPPYSAYSYES Dec28 Sep30 Sep15 Apr10 Feb11 (catalano wa)PETERSON FERRIN 124 30.00    
SCR  ECONOMIC HANGOVER Mar26 Feb16 Dec26 Nov13 Sep13 (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 124 2.00 66% 0.50    
SCR  YOU'RE AVOIDING ME Mar16 Feb23 Dec30 Nov11 Oct13 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 124 6.00    
11  PUGLIA Feb25 Feb01 Jan06 Dec15 Nov09 (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 124 20.00 ★    
 
KEE-5   04/27/2023 7920ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KITTEN MISCHIEF Jan01 Dec14 Oct26 Sep24 Mar12 (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
2  BLANKET OF ROSES Mar09 Feb18 Feb04 Dec29 Dec11 (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 118 50.00    
3  COOL RAGS Mar30 Mar11 Feb22 Jan21 Jan06 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
4  THE GREY WIZARD (IRE) Feb05 Jan20 Nov25 Oct21 Sep17 (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 118 1.40 31% 2.30    
5  WICKED FAST Apr01 Mar04 Jan28 Dec17 Nov19 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 16% 5.30    
6  SIX MINUS Feb03 Jan01 Oct29 Sep05 May29 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00    
7  ENGLISH CONQUEROR Dec04 Nov13 Oct13 Sep09 Aug21 (banach da)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00 ★    
8  MICROPHONE (IRE) Mar02 Feb03 Oct21 Aug28 Jun16 (west w)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
9  SIR FOR SURE Oct02 Sep13 Aug21 Jul24 Jun12 (casse mark)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.50 25% 3.00    
 
KEE-6   04/27/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YO PUEDO Mar12 Jul21 Jun10 Apr22   (medina rober)GEROUX FLORENT 125 8.00    
SCR  SHE'S ALL CLASS Mar16 Feb18 Nov27 Nov06 Oct07 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.50    
3  BYZANTINE Feb17 Jan21 May04 Apr02 Feb19 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 15.00 ★    
SCR  SILVERLEAF Mar25 Oct23 Sep05 Jul09 Jun30 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 125 6.00    
5  POUT Mar30 Feb17 Oct19 Aug12   (zito p)BEJARANO R 125 8.00    
6  PENTAGON Mar23 Jan28 Apr09 Mar18   (mcgaughey cla)ORTIZ JR 125 1.80 ★    
7  LILY'S CREED Mar24 Feb28 Feb09 Jan25 Dec18 (scherer mariann)LANERIE J 118 20.00 ★    
8  DE JORIA Mar31 Feb16 Dec10 Oct29 Sep22 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.00 73% 0.40    
 
KEE-7   04/27/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($110K) 3 F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOUDICA Mar22 Oct08 Sep01 Aug10   (carroll josie)ROSARIO JOEL 117 8.00    
2  SWEET ALYSSA Mar25 Feb17 Jan21     (pessin ne)LEPAROUX R 117 20.00    
3  VENENCIA (FR)         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 117 2.50 20% 3.90    
4  GROMANTINE (FR) Mar22         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 117 6.00 18% 4.50    
5  BE MY SUNSHINE Mar12 Jan08       (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 117 3.50 24% 3.10    
6  DESERT TEMPEST Mar18 Feb05 Oct15 Sep01   (walsh bren)LOVEBERRY JARETH 117 10.00    
7  TAMMY TAP TAP TAP Feb11 Jan21       (bauer philip )CANNON DECLAN 117 12.00 6% 15.10    
8  MISS RIDDLER Jul29         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 117 10.00    
9  CLOUDY BAY Mar12 Feb12 Dec28 Dec04 Oct26 (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 117 20.00    
10  MISS PEABODY Mar04 Feb03 Jan11 Dec03 Nov12 (newton troy)BEJARANO R 117 20.00 6% 15.40    
11  PUFFIN Mar02 Jan25 Oct22 Sep25   (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 117 30.00    
SCR  MO SHIRO Mar02 Feb05 Dec31 Dec01 Oct30 (catalano way)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
SCR  SILVER STRIPES Mar12 Feb05       (devaux cherie)ROSARIO JOEL 117 15.00    
14  CHICA DE ORO Mar31 Feb08 Jan05     (tomlinson michael )GRAHAM J 117 30.00    
SCR  NEED SOME MONEY Apr07 Feb04 Dec31 Nov18 Oct09 (hamilton s)HERNANDEZ J 117 20.00    
SCR  JENNY LIND Feb23 Feb01 Nov18     (asmussen)RODRIGUEZ A 112 15.00    
 
KEE-8   04/27/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AIN'T BROKE Mar15 Feb16 Dec22 Nov27 Oct15 (calhoun william)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
2  STORY HOUR Mar02 Jan18 Dec29 Nov24 Feb13 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 12.00    
3  SEND FOR ME Mar30 Feb15 Jan20 Dec14   (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50 39% 1.60    
4  TAKE CARE Nov20 Oct23 Sep18 Aug07 Jul10 (medina robert)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00 8% 11.20    
5  BRAGANZA Feb23 Jan01 Nov16 Oct29 Sep28 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 11% 8.20    
6  TALES OF HOME Mar16 Feb18 Jan14 Dec19 Nov18 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
7  NON VIOLENCE Feb12 Jan16 Dec22     (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00 15% 5.60    
 
KEE-9   04/27/2023 6270ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GETTLEMAN Mar19         (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ESTELLE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  KING CURLIN Mar25 Dec31 Dec03     (vanden britt)EMIGH A 126 10.00 19% 4.30    
  (by CURLIN out of BLINGISMYTHING by ARCH)
3  MONJID Mar01 Jan22 Nov30 Oct22 Oct08 (mckeever and)GEROUX FLORENT 126 15.00    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of SUMAYYA by OASIS DREAM (GB))
4  MIRACLE ON ICE Mar25 Feb16 Jan25 Nov30 Oct05 (hughes g)BEJARANO R 126 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of MAGICAL VICTORY by VICTORY GALLOP)
5  SON OF THUNDER Mar25 Mar02 Jan25 Dec11   (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 126 20.00 7% 13.90    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CHATTERTOWN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  DR KRINGLE Mar17         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 126 6.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of HUG DOC by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
7  QAADER Mar25 Feb16 Jan25 Dec31 Nov11 (trujillo elvis)STEVENS C 116 50.00    
  (by NIGHT OF THUNDER out of REDINHA by DANSILI (GB))
8  BEE WELL Mar18 Dec10 Nov05     (sisterson jack)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of BERNARDETTE by A.P. INDY)
9  CAROOM Mar01 Jan22 Dec17 Nov30 Oct22 (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 126 12.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of ELLE BELLE by EL PRADO (IRE))
10  MISSIONAIRE Mar18 Jan28       (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.50 23% 3.40    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of DIVINITE by MR. SIDNEY)
11  ROENICK Apr01 Mar11 Aug26 Jul31   (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 118 50.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SEE ROCK CITY by TAPIT)
12  BORDER WAR Feb08 Dec21 Oct15 Jan15   (mcgaughey )GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 3.50 24% 3.20    
  (by WAR FRONT out of HOMEBOUND by DIXIE UNION)
SCR  PEEK Feb10 Dec29       (arnold r)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of WE USE TO SING by MINESHAFT)
SCR  BOONE'S PATH Apr15 Mar25 Mar02 Jan25 Dec31 (young r)LANERIE J 126 30.00    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of INDIAN CARLIE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  HIDDEN PATH Mar31         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of LOTS O' LEX by KITALPHA)
SCR  SELF RULE Feb16 Jan25 Dec31 Nov30 Nov02 (preston randy)LEZCANO ABEL 126 20.00    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of TEMPERENCE GIFT by KINGMAMBO)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.