Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 06, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/06/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUEEN TAPITURE Oct05 Sep02 Aug23 Jul29   (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 119 5.00 33% 2.00    
2  GAMBI Oct11         (alessi james)AYALA ISAIAS 119 15.00    
3  FABULOSITY Oct01 Sep01 Jul31     (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 5.00 ★    
4  SPUNK Aug14 Jul24       (mott riley)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 ★    
SCR  JOB'S NOT FINISHED Sep28         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 41% 1.40    
6  PEACEFUL MOMENT Oct13 Sep24       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 ★    
7  YOU'RE A DANDY May27 May20 Apr29 Apr08   (jazdzewski jon)MOJICA JR 119 20.00    
 
CD-2   11/06/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LA TOURISTA Oct09 Aug28 Aug06 Jul22 Jun22 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00    
2  SUE ELLEN MISHKIN Oct15 Jul27 May14     (abreu r)LANERIE J 118 1.60 53% 0.90    
SCR  MAGICAL PEAPOD Oct23 Sep28 Feb13 Jan15   (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 8% 12.20    
4  A GIRL LIKE ME Sep04 Jun20 Jun10 Mar12 Jan13 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00    
5  PRINCESSTAPITURE Oct04 Aug22 Feb25 Jan01   (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  AIDANIKE Sep24 Sep05 Jul21 Jun11 May06 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 6.00 ★    
7  SUNNY ISLE BEACH Sep21 Jul01 Jun11 May21 Apr24 (shirer a)GILLIGAN JACK 120 8.00 ★    
 
CD-3   11/06/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BABY BILLY Oct02         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.50 31% 2.30    
2  JOEY FRESHWATER         (shirer m)SANTANA JR 119 12.00    
3  ITWASTHISBIG         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
4  BLANTON         (ortiz john)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
5  TUMBARUMBA Oct02         (lynch bri)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 ★    
6  INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER Sep21 Sep03 Aug05 Jun26   (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 ★    
7  SMART PRIZE Jun26         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00 18% 4.70    
8  IRISH ACES Oct03         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 30% 2.30    
 
CD-4   11/06/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  VERITABLE Oct08 Sep13 Jul22 Jun25   (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 ★    
2  ISLAND MISCHIEF Sep22 Aug21       (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 122 20.00    
SCR  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Oct11 Sep28 Aug30 Aug08 Jun19 (barnett c)COURT K 122 2.00 26% 2.80    
4  CYCLONE Jul03 Jun05 Apr29 Mar16 Feb17 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 28% 2.50    
5  MUD PUDDLE         (brumley willia)ELLIOTT JANE 122 12.00    
6  TOUCH CODE Oct02 May30 May15 Mar19 Feb12 (vance r)CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00 11% 7.90    
7  ALLO ENRY Oct02 Apr30 Apr03 Mar24 Feb26 (deville )SANTANA JR 122 10.00    
8  WORKINFROMHOME Oct06 Sep18 Aug12 Jul27 Jun05 (guerrero sal)MILLER CHASE 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   11/06/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MULBERRY STREET Oct12 Sep01 Aug09 Jul03   (humphries tho)CANNON DECLAN 121 2.50 18% 4.60    
2  KING OF STING Oct11 Sep22 Sep06 Jul02 Jun18 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 31% 2.20    
3  T J MUNNINGS Oct12 Sep28 Jul05 Jun02 Mar18 (bogle fergu)PETERSON FERRIN 121 15.00 8% 12.10    
4  FATHER PATRICK Oct05 Sep27 Sep09 Aug31 Aug02 (newton troy)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
5  STORM'S REFLECTION Oct22 Oct07 Sep14 Aug25 Aug10 (padilla tim)COURT K 123 6.00    
6  PRESTONSBIRD Oct12 Sep28 Sep06 Aug20   (richardson tim)MOJICA JR 121 20.00    
7  VASILEVSKIY (IRE) Oct11 Sep16 Apr30 Feb10 Jan21 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 8.00 ★    
8  JACKS FIRE BALLS Oct26 Aug31       (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 18% 4.60    
9  KISS PRINCIPAL Oct12 Sep18 Aug13 Jun23 May14 (hartlage g)JOHNSON M 118 8.00    
 
CD-6   11/06/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY COMMANDER Sep17 Jun19 May28 Mar31 Mar06 (fires h)COURT K 124 15.00    
2  ONE TIME MO Oct01 Apr28       (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 2.50 20% 3.90    
3  KEEN CONTENDER Sep30 Aug07 Jul18 Jun24 Jun06 (anderson dou)JORDAN R 121 15.00 ★    
4  MAGICAL ACT Oct07         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 1.60 28% 2.50    
5  ANKYRAH Oct01 Sep03 Feb18 Jan01   (morey wil)LEPAROUX R 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  MARKSWOMAN Oct01         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00    
7  MIDNIGHT TANGO         (pitts helen)GRAHAM J 121 20.00    
8  SHADY ROAD Sep14 Jul23 Jun03     (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.00 25% 2.90    
 
CD-7   11/06/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAST AND FLIRTY Oct07 Apr10 Feb20 Jan01   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
2  CODE FOR SUCCESS Oct07 Sep01 Aug06 Jun23 May28 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
3  CANCEL THIS Oct15 Sep23 Aug27 Jul31 Jun18 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
4  IN MY OPINION Oct19 Oct01 Aug29 Jul16 Jun25 (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 20.00 8% 11.90    
SCR  SEND FOR ME         (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  AMERICAN PYRAMID Oct01 Sep03 Jul02 Jun11 Apr27 (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 ★    
7  PORTILLA Sep23 Aug07 Jun26     (stall al)SANTANA JR 120 2.50 20% 4.00    
8  SHE'S ALL CLASS Oct07 Sep10 Aug14     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00 15% 5.60    
 
CD-8   11/06/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOFTHOUSE Oct04 Aug03 Jun23 Jun01 May12 (greenhill jeff)PARKER L 120 8.00    
2  CHARLIE'S PENNY Sep10 Aug01 Jun04     (block chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 59% 0.70    
3  BE LIKE WATER Oct09 Sep16 Aug08 Jul02 Jun02 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 120 8.00    
4  LOVEMESOMEME Sep16 Aug13 Jun29 May29   (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00 14% 6.20    
5  SARAH HARPER Oct09 Aug20 Jan22 Jan09   (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 ★    
6  RECODED Oct09 Sep16 Aug14 Aug07 Jul02 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00 ★    
SCR  AMUSING ANTICS Aug16 Jul02 Feb25 Jan23   (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 120 6.00 ★    
 
CD-9   11/06/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWO BIRDS Oct12 Sep11 Jul28 Jul01 Apr14 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
2  EL AHIJADO Sep17 Aug19 Jul09 Jun09 May22 (guerrero sa)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 50.00    
3  MIACOMET Oct13 Sep17 Jan29 Jan08   (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 21% 3.80    
4  DOCTOR NASH Sep30 Jun19 Jan19     (tomlinson)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 10.00    
5  KEEPCALMCARRYON Oct16 Sep28 Jul04 May29   (margolis stephen)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
6  COOL RAGS Oct27 Oct12 Sep05 Aug06 Apr24 (foster eric)GEROUX FLORENT 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  FREEZE POP Oct16 Sep10 Aug24     (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 120 5.00 5% 17.60    
8  DECLARE THE MOON Oct22 Sep28 Jul24 Jun22 Jun03 (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
9  COUSIN LARRY Oct13 Sep17 Aug15 Jul13 Jun19 (lovell michel)GILLIGAN JACK 121 3.00 11% 8.40    
10  EXTRAVAGATE Oct12 Aug28 Jul24     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 30% 2.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.