Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Wednesday - July 31, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
SAR-1   WIN (3/8/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/4/1)-(3/8/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/4/1)-(3/8/4/1)-(3/8/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/8/4/1)-(6/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/8/4/1)-(6/5/3)-(8/6/3/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
SAR-2   WIN (6/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/3)-(6/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/3)-(6/5/3)-(6/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/3)-(8/6/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/3)-(8/6/3/9)-(8/5/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
SAR-3   WIN (8/6/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/3/9)-(8/6/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/3/9)-(8/6/3/9)-(8/6/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/3/9)-(8/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/6/3/9)-(8/5/3)-(1/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
SAR-4   WIN (8/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/3)-(8/5/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/5/3)-(8/5/1/3)-(8/5/1/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/5/3)-(1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (8/5/3)-(1/3)-(7/13/4/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
SAR-5   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/3)-(1/3/7)-(1/3/7) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/3)-(7/13/4/9) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/3)-(7/13/4/9)-(9/6/10/3) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
SAR-6   WIN (7/13/4/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/13/4/9)-(7/13/4/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/13/4/9)-(7/13/4/9)-(7/13/4/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/13/4/9)-(9/6/10/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/13/4/9)-(9/6/10/3)-(8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
SAR-7   WIN (9/6/10/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/6/10/3)-(9/6/10/5/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (9/6/10/3)-(9/6/10/5/3)-(9/6/10/5/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (9/6/10/3)-(8) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (9/6/10/3)-(8)-(6/5/4/8/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
SAR-8   WIN (8) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (8)-(8/2) 1 $1.00 $1.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (8)-(6/5/4/8/7) 5 $1.00 $5.00 
SAR-9   WIN (6/5/4/8/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/5/4/8/7)-(6/5/4/8/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/5/4/8/7)-(6/5/4/8/7)-(6/5/4/8/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   07/31/2024 12540ft TURF RC11 FIRM Jonathan Kiser Memorial Novice Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIDDEN PATH Mar30 Oct08 Sep07 Aug05 Jul01 (hendriks ri)HENDRIKS PARKER 144 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of LOTS O' LEX by KITALPHA)
2  KIYOMORI Sep08 Jul22 Nov05 Oct07 Sep24 (wyatt todd)BESWICK HARRISON 153 4.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of THE GREY EXPRESS by KING'S THEATRE)
3  ZARAK THE BRAVE (FR)         (garner thoma)WATTERS GRAHAM 156 1.00 40% 1.50    
  (by ZARAK out of TEMPO ROYALE by BORIS DE DEAUVILLE)
4  HOLD HARD (IRE) Apr06 Sep08 Aug18     (fout dougl)DALTON BERNARD 153 6.00 6% 16.20    
  (by SHOLOKHOV out of QUARRYVALE by BENEFICIAL)
SCR  TUDDENHAM GREEN         (fisher joh)O' CONOR 153 8.00    
  (by NATHANIEL out of SOCIAL MEDIA by AWESOME OF COURSE)
6  CLARA BELLE Feb08 Jan18 Jan06 Dec08 Aug31 (brion keri)MULQUEEN STEPHEN 146 15.00    
  (by BROKEN VOW out of ENCORE BELLE by LEMON DROP KID)
7  CIBOLIAN Jun06 Jul14 Jun09 Oct09 Aug21 (kingsley arch)BARGARY JAMIE 150 15.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of YADIRA by PULPIT)
8  LIGHTNING ROD Mar30 Nov05 Oct22 Aug17 Jul04 (george lair)GALLIGAN GERARD 150 8.00 30% 2.40    
  (by BELLAMY ROAD out of KATARA by PULPIT)
 
SAR-2   07/31/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($65K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STEADY PROGRESS Feb29 Jan28 Jan14 Jan01 Dec03 (chatte)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 30.00    
2  CERTIFIED LOVERBOY Jun22 Apr18 Mar09 Feb10 Jan13 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 124 1.60    
3  NIGHT EFFECT Jul18 May27 May18 Apr27 Apr13 (samsundar ro)GEROUX FLORENT 124 6.00 6% 14.40    
4  SUPER CHIEF Jun07 Mar16 Jan27 Jan07 Nov17 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 122 4.50    
5  LUCENCY Jul18 Jun07 May04 Apr25 Apr06 (sells rachel)FRANCO MANUEL 124 6.00 16% 5.20    
6  SQUIRE CREEK Jun30 Jun16 Apr21 Mar03 Aug05 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 39% 1.50    
7  SIN NOMBRE Jul06 Jun14 Apr11 Mar21 Feb24 (romero jesus)LUZZI J 124 20.00    
 
SAR-3   07/31/2024 3630ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPOOFY Jun27 May17 Aug19 Aug03 Jun09 (baker ch)SANTANA JR 124 12.00    
SCR  AWESOME FORCE Jul05 Jun09 Jul01 May19 May06 (diprima gregor)LUZZI J 124 15.00    
3  BRACA Jul18 Jun27 Jan06 Dec08 Nov11 (barrera s)DAVIS DYLAN 119 15.00 14% 6.20    
4  DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY Jun28 Jun09 May17 Mar29 Mar06 (paragallo )RIVERA R 119 30.00    
SCR  SPOKEN BLUNTLY Jun29 May17 Apr19 Feb15   (levine bruc)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 5.00    
6  BUSTINO SANTINO May17 Dec07 Nov10 Oct12 Sep04 (levine bruce)CASTELLANO J 124 4.00 21% 3.70    
7  EGYPTIAN QUEST Jul04 Dec05 Oct27 Oct12 Jul14 (crook-dema)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00    
8  IRISH TENOR Jun14 May26 Apr04 Mar10 Feb17 (kimmel c)LEZCANO JOSE 119 2.00 38% 1.60    
9  THE COMMISH         (brion keri)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-4   07/31/2024 5940ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($95K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JAA MODE Jun25 May27 May01 Mar06 Feb14 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.50 ★    
2  BOYS CODE Jun29 May25 May02 Nov18 Oct20 (dixon )MARAGH RAMSAY 123 6.00    
3  HAGRID'S FLAME Jun15 Apr13 Mar24     (terranova )RIVERA R 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  PROVISION Jun20 Apr28 Mar22 Feb29 Feb10 (potts wayne)CANCEL ERIC 123 15.00    
5  TOSCANO Jun06 May04       (rivelli larry)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 28% 2.50    
6  LEFTEMBEHIND Jul12 Jun07 May03 Dec16 Nov16 (tagg barclay)DAVIS KATIE 123 6.00    
7  BAD LARRY Jul20 Jun29 Jun09 May25 May05 (potts wayn)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 10.00    
8  BOB JOHN RAY May25 Apr13 Feb25     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 46% 1.20    
 
SAR-5   07/31/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SLIGHTLY BUSY Jul05         (pletcher a)DAVIS DYLAN 119 6.00 40% 1.50    
  (by MUNNINGS out of MAGIC MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  CARAE         (brion ker)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of HENNYVILLE by HENNY HUGHES)
3  SERIOUS LADY         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 20% 3.90    
  (by HONEST MISCHIEF out of LODE LADY by POSSE)
4  JACKPOT JULIE         (giddings melan)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 12.00    
  (by KING FOR A DAY out of SCARLET'S COMMAND by MINESHAFT)
SCR  MARVELOUS MADISON         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 119 3.50    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of SHEA DARBY by STREET SENSE)
SCR  GRACE AND GRIT         (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 119 8.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SHERIFFA by POSSE)
7  ADA MAY         (thomas jonatha)ORTIZ L 119 12.00 ★    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of PRINCESS COCO by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  NATIONAL ARCHIVE         (clement chris)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LYN B by QUALITY ROAD)
SCR  CARA'S DREAMWEAVER Jul05         (friedman mitche)CANCEL ERIC 119 4.50    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of DREAMING OF CARA by NORTH LIGHT)
10  PLAYFUL LASS         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by MITOLE out of CHOICE PLAY by VINDICATION)
SCR  MANGETSU         (danner kel)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of ORIENT MOON by MALIBU MOON)
 
SAR-6   07/31/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 F PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIVORCED OF COURSE         (martin carlos )PRAT FLAVIEN 119 5.00    
  (by SPUN TO RUN out of MADAME BOURBON by GOLDENCENTS)
SCR  GRACEFUL WARRIOR         (antonucci je)CASTELLANO J 119 4.50    
  (by FOG OF WAR out of HAGGITH by THUNDER GULCH)
SCR  MISS INTERPATATION         (sacco gregory )LEZCANO JOSE 119 15.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of WOODSBORO by CONGRATS)
4  EPISODE Jul11 Jun22 May23     (d'angelo)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 21% 3.80    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of TIZA SMARTY by TIZNOW)
5  KATERINA RISTOVA Jul13 Jun16 Jun01 May27   (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 119 30.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of KENDALIN by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  THE SUGARS Jun21 May16       (terran)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 10.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
7  LINDA'S JEWEL         (abreu fernand)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 23% 3.40    
  (by FLATTER out of AMIENS by OXBOW)
8  MY VANILLA Jul11         (ryerson james )LUZZI J 119 12.00    
  (by MITOLE out of WEEKEND ROMANCE by KEY RECOGNITION)
9  BISA Jul13 Jun16       (caramori edu)TORRES A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of BALA PERDIDA by BADGE OF SILVER)
10  MASCARA         (ward wesley)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 4.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of CALIDEZ by SPRING AT LAST)
SCR  MEAN EILEEN         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of EILEEN'S SONG by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  ANNIE GOODBODY Jul18         (reynol)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 8.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of TIZ ELLA by TIZNOW)
13  MELLE MEL         (giddings mel)BRIDGMOHAN X 119 2.50 21% 3.70    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of ANDELE by LUCKY SO N' SO)
 
SAR-7   07/31/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCE JAMES Jun29 May27 Apr27 Mar28 Jan26 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 120 12.00    
2  AMERICAN GENTLEMAN Jul19 Jun29 Apr28 Apr13 Jan26 (rodriguez gust)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 10.00    
3  GOLDINI Jun29 May11 Apr27 Mar24 Mar02 (noda orla)BOCACHICA J 115 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  KHOZY MY BOY May23 Apr06 Feb25 Feb17 Dec15 (moquett ronald)ROSARIO JOEL 120 4.00    
5  RAM May19 Apr12 Mar17 Feb23 Jan27 (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 6.00 ★    
6  DADDY KNOWS Jun21 May27 Apr26 Apr14 Mar24 (barrera s)DAVIS KATIE 120 8.00 31% 2.30    
7  LORD CAPTAIN Jun21 May26 May04 Apr28 Apr05 (walder pet)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 15.00    
SCR  NOTTOWAY Jun11 May27 May14 Apr07 Mar02 (reed a)FRANCO MANUEL 123 15.00    
9  HATCH (GB) Jun29 Apr11 Mar09 Feb25 Feb03 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.50 40% 1.50    
10  PROVEN HOPE Jul18 Jun07 Apr27 Mar15 Feb24 (barker r)VAZQUEZ A 120 4.50 7% 14.40    
 
SAR-8   07/31/2024 5280ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY De La Rose Purse ($135K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FIVE TOWNS (GB) May18 Apr20 Mar23 Feb24   (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 122 30.00    
  (by LORD KANALOA out of GUILTY TWELVE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  HOT FUDGE Jun15 May18 Apr06 Mar09 Jan27 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 122 20.00 ★    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of NOELLE'S MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  SPIRIT AND GLORY (IRE) Jun15 May11 Apr21 Mar23 Feb17 (falcone robert)LEZCANO JOSE 122 2.50    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SUPREME SPIRIT by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE))
4  POCA MUCHA Dec30 Sep07 Aug11 Jul13 Jun15 (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 118 15.00    
  (by TOURIST out of LOST BADGE by BADGE OF SILVER)
5  SISTER LOU ANN Jun22 Mar23 Mar02 Jan27 Dec30 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 8.00    
  (by FROSTED out of GRANNY MC'S KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  MOUFFY Jul04 May03 Mar03 Feb03 Dec09 (thomas jo)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 4.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of TRULY TOGETHER by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  IMMENSITUDE (FR) Jun02 Apr21       (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 12.00    
  (by LAWMAN out of MA PETITE POULE by ELUSIVE CITY)
8  BE MY SUNSHINE Jun30 Jun02 Mar02 Feb03 Dec23 (joseph saffie )ORTIZ L 120 10.00 41% 1.40    
  (by FROSTED out of SISTERHOOD by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  EVVIE JETS Jul13 Jun07 May04 Oct07 Aug24 (kantarmaci mer)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 3.50    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  MIDNIGHT MILE (IRE) Jul04 Apr21 Nov04     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 5.00    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
SAR-9   07/31/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAGICAL ROAD Jun27 May29 May09 Mar20   (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 118 10.00    
2  GLINT Apr21 Mar24 Mar09     (ribaud)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 12.00    
3  CONFABULATION         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 124 6.00    
4  HOULTON Jun15 Dec09 Oct26 Oct06 Aug19 (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 118 4.00 8% 11.00    
5  BOLD AMBITION Jun13 Apr14 Nov24     (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 13% 6.40    
6  DARK DEVIL Jun15 May10 Apr26     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50 43% 1.30    
7  STATELY ORDER Jun30 Jun09 May15 Apr10 Mar08 (sacco gregory)ORTIZ JR 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  ALWAYS BE SMART Jul11 Jun12 Apr12 Mar09 Feb11 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 7% 12.70    
9  SALACIOUS Apr20 Mar24 Mar10 Feb10 Dec28 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.