Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - July 15, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (7/8/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/5)-(7/8/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/8/5)-(7/8/5)-(7/8/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/8/5)-(3/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/8/5)-(3/2/1)-(4/7/8/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/1)-(4/7/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1)-(4/7/8/3)-(3/6/1/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/7/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/8/3)-(4/7/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/8/3)-(4/7/8/3)-(4/7/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7/8/3)-(3/6/1/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/7/8/3)-(3/6/1/4)-(10/3/2/4/9) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-4   WIN (3/6/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/1/4)-(3/6/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/1/4)-(3/6/1/4)-(3/6/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/1/4)-(10/3/2/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/6/1/4)-(10/3/2/4/9)-(7/6/2/1) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-5   WIN (10/3/2/4/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/3/2/4/9)-(10/3/2/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/3/2/4/9)-(10/3/2/4/9)-(10/3/2/4/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/3/2/4/9)-(7/6/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/3/2/4/9)-(7/6/2/1)-(6/3/9/7) 80 $0.50 $240 
ELP-6   WIN (7/6/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/2/1)-(7/6/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/2/1)-(7/6/2/1)-(7/6/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/2/1)-(6/3/9/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/6/2/1)-(6/3/9/7)-(4/10/9/1) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-7   WIN (6/3/9/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/9/7)-(6/3/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/9/7)-(6/3/9/7)-(6/3/9/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/3/9/7)-(4/10/9/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/3/9/7)-(4/10/9/1)-(5/10/2/4) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-8   WIN (4/10/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/10/9/1)-(4/10/9/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/10/9/1)-(4/10/9/5/1)-(4/10/9/5/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/10/9/1)-(5/10/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ELP-9   WIN (5/10/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/10/2/4)-(5/10/2/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/10/2/4)-(5/10/2/7/4)-(5/10/2/7/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/15/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MANTA REY Jul07 Jun22 May04 Apr14 Mar29 (haran joh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00    
2  FITZPATRICK Jun28 Jun12 May10 Apr18 Oct01 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
3  APPEAL DENIED Dec01 Nov05 Jun29 May21 Apr21 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.00    
SCR  LIKE A SALTSHAKER Jun21 Jun05 May10 Mar15 Jan11 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 3.50    
5  W W CRAZY May25 Apr20 Apr05 Mar23 Feb19 (lauer mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  TIM TAL Jun12 Apr07 Mar09 Feb04 Jan05 (schultz l)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50    
7  COMMUNICATION MEMO Jun21 May04 Apr12 Mar21 Feb16 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 3.00 38% 1.60    
8  SPYCRAFT Jun21 May19 Apr27 Apr12 Mar15 (cook b)CANNON DECLAN 122 6.00 22% 3.50    
 
ELP-2   07/15/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAT'S CAVE Jun01 Dec13 Nov18 Sep29 Aug02 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  ROSIA BAY Jun08 May16 Apr13 Mar09 Feb21 (morey william )MACHADO LUAN 124 2.50 27% 2.60    
3  CURL GIRL Jun08 Apr19 Feb28 Jan10 May05 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 124 1.80 34% 2.00    
4  COZEE RAGS Jun26 May18 Apr05 Mar01 Feb10 (michael brian)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
5  MUSTANG LADY Jun19 Oct18 Sep10 Aug05 Jun29 (newton tro)CORRALES GERARDO 124 8.00    
SCR  LADAN Jun12 May23 Apr07 Mar27 Mar01 (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
SCR  UNDER ADVISEMENT Jun26 May26 Apr26 Mar28 Feb22 (arnold r)LANERIE J 124 5.00    
 
ELP-3   07/15/2024 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MCGINNIS         (walden willi)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00    
SCR  HALLELUJAH HARRIS Jun16 May30 Aug05 Jun30   (desormeaux)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 12.00    
3  SESAME STREEK Jun21 May27 Apr21     (sharp joe)TORRES A 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  ROYAL SALUTE Jun08 Sep30 Aug27 Jul23 Jun22 (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 3.00 34% 1.90    
5  ACCONA Jun10 May19 Apr10 Feb23   (camejo jose )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
6  HIGGINSVILLE Jul05 Jun06 Apr07 Mar09 Jan01 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 5.00    
7  BETTERA Jun12 May26 Apr30 Mar24 Feb22 (amoss tho)TORRES A 124 4.00 29% 2.50    
8  MO RUM Jun06 Apr30 Mar24 Mar07 Feb15 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 4.50 10% 9.00    
9  TORNADO ROAD Jun23 May02 Apr13 Feb03 Jan05 (lukas wayne)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
SCR  WHERE'S JACK Mar16         (hancock john )LEBRON VICTOR 118 30.00    
 
ELP-4   07/15/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MINTY Jun07 May02       (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 8% 11.40    
  (by MCKINZIE out of MONEYBRU by TALK IS MONEY)
2  AMERICAN WOMEN Jun07         (walsh bre)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of SMARTLY AGREE by SMART STRIKE)
3  MURPHY GIRL Jun07 May17       (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 2.50 36% 1.80    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of CURLED by CURLIN)
4  MISS ELLE Jun07 May02       (medina rober)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SHANCELOT out of BECCAWHIT by ROMAN RULER)
5  MY SWEET LOVE         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  LADY KATHRYN Jun21         (mott riley)ACHARD ALEX 119 2.00 35% 1.90    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of PINK SCATILLAC by SCAT DADDY)
7  QUEEN MCKINZIE         (perez c)ROMERO GREGORY 119 30.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of LOVELY DAUGHTER by BIG BROWN)
8  HOME FIRST         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of HOMESCHOOLING by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
ELP-5   07/15/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FUN LOVING May25 Apr18 Nov25 Nov03 Oct11 (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 30.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of FRIVOLOUS by FOOLISH PLEASURE)
2  SUPERCILIOUS BOLT Mar01         (delima e)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 19% 4.20    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
3  BARBTOURAGE Apr26 Apr26       (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 22% 3.60    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of VELVET MOOD by LONHRO (AUS))
4  WHERE'S THE WINE Jun08 Feb28       (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50 12% 7.40    
  (by MITOLE out of AMARONE by QUALITY ROAD)
5  DREAM ON STORMY Jun29 Jun07 May11 Mar28 Nov01 (winston d)RIQUELME J 124 30.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of LU BATON by ROAR)
6  LIFE'S SAGA (IRE) Apr21 Mar23       (davis christ)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
7  SHEZTHEFACTOR Jun26 Nov19 Oct21 Sep27   (hamilton sar)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of MY LUCKY SPELL by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
8  MIA MARCELA Jun26 Nov17 Sep27 Aug09   (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
9  JUS EVELYN Jun02 Mar02       (lovell michell)CONNER TYLER 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of JUS WOW by DUNKIRK)
10  ELLEN JAY Jun08 May11       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00 23% 3.30    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of COVFEFE by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  MORINGA Jun29 Jun02       (pribble william )BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of LADY SIPHONICA by SIPHON (BRZ))
SCR  GO GEMMA Jun08 Apr17 Mar23     (medina rober)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of JEWEL OF A CAT by WILDCAT HEIR)
SCR  WINE AND WAVES Jun12 May18 Apr13 Mar03   (hancock john )LEBRON VICTOR 119 12.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of MALIBU PIER by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  DREAMSCAPE Jun02 Mar16       (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of MISS VINDICTIVE by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
 
ELP-6   07/15/2024 4290ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($40K) Purse ($33K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUTLIER Jun15 May30 May12 Apr26 Apr12 (hiles rick)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  SOGNO DI CAMPIONE (CHI) May30 Apr21 Mar21 Feb29 Feb03 (esquivel j)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 6% 14.40    
3  PRINCIP Jun27 Jun02 Apr20 Mar03 Jan26 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 6.00    
4  SOLIDIFY Jun14 Jun02 May10 Apr14 Mar22 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
5  TIMELESS BOUNTY Jun27 Jun02 May10 Feb17 Mar05 (ocasio osvaldo)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.00    
6  TILTED TOWERS Jun02 May10 Apr12 Mar30 Dec02 (rice adam)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 3.00 26% 2.80    
7  GLOBAL SENSATION Jun27 May25 May10 Mar22 Feb28 (cano mu)TORRES A 124 3.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  INFILTRATOR Jun14 May25 Mar29 Feb24 Jan27 (milligan )TORRES A 122 4.50    
 
ELP-7   07/15/2024 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DROBNY Jul05 May17 Mar07 Feb12 Jan12 (hartman c)BEALMEAR C 111 15.00    
  (by TOURIST out of SUSIE BEE by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
2  SOVEREIGNS JOY May29         (maker michae)TORRES A 118 15.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of JOELS LAST LAUGH by FORESTRY)
3  JUNGLE LAW         (walden wi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50 21% 3.80    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of INDIA by HENNESSY)
4  PROVISIONAL Aug26         (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 124 15.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of BUBBLER by DISTORTED HUMOR)
5  SAN MARTIN Jun08 Apr24       (sancal murat)CHUAN MARTIN 118 10.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of STOPTALKINGMARIA by WHYWHYWHY)
6  ROCKY JOY Jun16 May02 Mar30 Feb17 Jan06 (lobo paul)TORRES A 124 1.20 52% 0.90    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of COLORADO GIRL by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
7  VERY SATISFACTORY Jun16 Mar24 Mar07 Nov30   (camejo jos)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of SHES SO SAVVY by BODEMEISTER)
8  ADRASTEIA Jun15 Mar28 Nov29 Nov16 Oct27 (bogle fergus)MORALES EDGAR 113 5.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of ARROSTOS by BODEMEISTER)
9  DELLACROCE Jun20 May29 May09 Apr24 Jul14 (torres con)CORRALES GERARDO 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of HAIL TO ROCKNROLL by SCAT DADDY)
 
ELP-8   07/15/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REWIRE Jan28 Nov18 Nov01 Feb17 Jan19 (shorter aa)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  BEAUDACIOUS COLTON Jul04 Jun19 Mar28 Feb23 Dec20 (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 30.00    
3  NATIONS DREAM Nov09 Oct19 Sep13 Aug08 Jul09 (mcewen j)ORM CORY 118 30.00    
4  GLOBAL STAGE Jun06 Apr30 Apr06 Apr14 Feb10 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 2.50 33% 2.10    
5  PRINTS MONEY Jun05 May12 Apr20     (asmussen )TORRES A 118 6.00 ★    
6  MERLOTTI Jun23 Jun09 Apr14 Nov18 Nov04 (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00    
7  BRAZEN BOY May30 May09 Dec29 Jun25 May19 (blair jordan)TORRES A 122 6.00    
8  DEWY'S BEAST Aug26 Jul27 Jul01 Jun10   (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
9  ANDY'S CANDY Apr28 Mar01 Feb11 Jan28 Dec31 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 13% 6.90    
10  PROTEGE Jul15 Apr14 Feb04 Dec17 Nov04 (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 122 5.00 32% 2.10    
 
ELP-9   07/15/2024 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHEAR MAGIC Oct08         (eurton pe)TORRES A 118 8.00    
2  J J'S RANGER Jun30 Apr20 Mar23 Feb18 Feb03 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 6% 15.40    
3  COWBOY CODE Jun21 Oct01 Jul21 Jun15   (lukas wayne)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
4  THREE POINT STRUT Jun22 May16 Apr17 Mar15 Feb04 (camejo jos)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  PANCAKE HOUSE Jun06 May11 Apr06 Mar02 Jan25 (blair jordan)CHUAN MARTIN 124 4.00 41% 1.50    
6  EL PELIGRO Jun27 May21 Apr19 Jun22 Jun06 (torres con)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
7  GAGLIARDI Jun12 Apr13       (mott william)TORRES A 118 4.50 ★    
8  GOLDENTOWN Jun02 Apr19 Mar07 Jan15 Oct22 (forster t)GRAHAM J 118 5.00    
9  ACTING DEBUT Jun08 Apr14       (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
10  MOUNT CRAIG Jun06 May05 Mar21 Feb25 Nov24 (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 124 5.00 31% 2.30    
SCR  WYOMING CLASS         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.