Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Saturday - October 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (1/2/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/10)-(1/2/4/9/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/10)-(1/2/4/9/10)-(1/2/4/9/10) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (1/2/10)-(2/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/2/10)-(2/4/1)-(4/9/6/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-2   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(4/9/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1)-(4/9/6/7)-(7/5/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-3   WIN (4/9/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/9/6/7)-(4/9/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/9/6/7)-(4/9/6/7)-(4/9/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/9/6/7)-(7/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/9/6/7)-(7/5/2)-(7/6/10) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-4   WIN (7/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/2)-(7/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/5/2)-(7/5/2)-(7/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/5/2)-(7/6/10) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/5/2)-(7/6/10)-(7/3/1/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-5   WIN (7/6/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/10)-(7/6/1/5/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/10)-(7/6/1/5/10)-(7/6/1/5/10) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/6/10)-(7/3/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/10)-(7/3/1/8)-(8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
MVR-6   WIN (7/3/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/1/8)-(7/3/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/1/8)-(7/3/1/8)-(7/3/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/1/8)-(8/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/3/1/8)-(8/1)-(7/4/1/5) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
MVR-7   WIN (8/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/1)-(8/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (8/1)-(7/4/1/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
MVR-8   WIN (7/4/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/1/5)-(7/4/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/1/5)-(7/4/1/5)-(7/4/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3UP M/F PT-12:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOBIL MEMORY Oct04 Oct29 Aug31 Aug15   (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 123 4.00 48% 1.10    
  (by MOBIL out of MYGIRLFRIDAY by LUNARPAL)
2  CANELA FINA Oct04 Sep14 Aug26 Aug09 Jun30 (dubie k)PILARES P 123 3.00 26% 2.90    
  (by CORFU out of BEAUTIFUL LATINA by SPRING AT LAST)
3  UNEXPECTEDVALENTYN Oct04 Sep19 Apr06 Mar27 Mar09 (doering mark)GONZALEZ KEVIN 123 20.00    
  (by ITSTHESAMEOLDSONG out of FLARING STAR by TAP DAY)
4  SISSY'S MAY Oct06 Sep06 Aug16 Aug05 Jul20 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 126 3.50 ★    
  (by KETTLE CORN out of MRS. BOYD by PROUD CITIZEN)
5  MOTOWN HARBOR Sep06 Aug30 Jan04 Dec21 Dec06 (cline ro)FERNANDEZ R 126 20.00    
  (by MOBIL out of SEAMAN HARBOR by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
6  MOST ADORABLE Oct04 Aug30 Jul25 Jul05 May31 (yo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 5.00    
  (by KENNEDY out of SWEET JODY by VALUE PLUS)
7  SHE'S A BIG GIRL Oct06         (crumley jevon)HOUGHTON D 123 8.00    
  (by HOSTILE TAKEOVER out of GONDOLE by AFLEET ALEX)
8  CABARET FLEUR Aug16 Aug03 Jul20 Jun24 Jun10 (overholt g)DIAZ R 126 20.00    
  (by MIXMASTER out of SHINE A SPOTLIGHT by NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ)
9  ONE RICH KITTEN Oct04 Aug29 Aug09 Jul19   (sweeti)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 6.00 ★    
  (by WILLIAM'S KITTEN out of MZ. STINKIN' RICH by COWBOY CAL)
10  BOLD NICKY Oct04 Jun19 May31 May11 Apr24 (maddox rachae)CEDILLO MAURO 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BOLD RED out of WEST POINT STAR by STAR DABBLER)
 
MVR-2   10/21/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 2 F PT-12:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG R. NAUFFAL         (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of LOOKSGOODFROMHERE by FREUD)
2  KACHOW Sep06         (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 122 2.50 63% 0.60    
  (by FAST ANNA out of AURA ROSE by UNCLE MO)
3  QUALIFICATA         (gutierrez f)LAGUNES GABRIEL 122 3.50    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of MAGIC APPEAL by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
4  SOCIALBUTTERFLYTAM         (cowans d)NAVAS YOEL 117 3.00 14% 6.20    
  (by MITOLE out of HONEY GRAEME by GRAEME HALL)
5  SHE'S WICKED         (walden willia)BRACHO A 122 4.50    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of WICKED CHARM by GHOSTZAPPER)
6  KATERYNA         (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 6.00    
  (by BUCCHERO out of CLASSY CITY LADY by CARSON CITY)
 
MVR-3   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DANCE MOVES Aug11 Jul15 Jun22 May25 May11 (ha)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 12.00    
2  TEQUILA FLATS Sep08 Aug30 Aug19 Aug01 Jul15 (ramos franc)LAGUNES GABRIEL 124 10.00    
3  JOSH'N Sep18 Aug31 Aug09 Jul19 May11 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 4.00    
4  MATTHEW'S PATRIOT Oct04 Sep13 Aug10 Aug24 Aug08 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 124 5.00 45% 1.20    
5  MIXTER JENSEN Aug30 Aug01 Jun24 Jun09 May17 (haehn r)PAUCAR E 124 8.00    
6  STARS N SPACE Sep25 Sep13 Aug22 Aug02 Jul25 (radosevich justi)RIVERA R 124 3.00 8% 10.80    
7  RED COMET Oct05 Sep19 Sep07 Aug24 Aug14 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  IMA BELIEVER Sep25 Sep04 Aug17 Jul12 Jun20 (tumblin andre)CEDILLO MAURO 119 20.00    
9  AWESOMELY INSPIRED Jul22 Jun27 Jun02 Apr27 Aug02 (rone mi)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 121 3.50 21% 3.80    
 
MVR-4   10/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DUEL FUEL Sep27 Jun06 May16 May06 Apr24 (romero o)FERNANDEZ R 126 8.00    
2  MAXIMIZER Sep12 Aug31 Aug16 Aug04 Jul27 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 126 6.00 12% 7.50    
3  KINGOFTHEBUCKEYE Sep27 Sep12 Aug10 May08 Mar13 (ruberto louis)CEDILLO MAURO 121 3.50    
4  POWER SONG Dec14 Nov29 Nov15 Oct31 Sep27 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 126 10.00    
5  CALL WEST Sep28 Aug30 Aug17 Jul31 Jun24 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 126 2.00 23% 3.40    
6  BROADWAY JONES Sep14 Jul28 Jul08 Jun30 May12 (hurley l)PAUCAR E 126 8.00    
7  KOSCIUSZKO Sep26 Sep14 Aug30 Aug08 Jul26 (brown )BATISTA ALBERTO 126 3.00 40% 1.50    
 
MVR-5   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($36.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANCHORWOMAN Sep19 Jul17 Jun27 Jun02 May06 (hamm timothy)CEDILLO MAURO 116 5.00    
1A  STEALTH MODE Sep28 Sep04 Aug03 Jul04 Jun05 (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 123 5.00 ★    
SCR  PRICELESS PICTURE Oct04 Sep22 Sep07 Aug26 Jul27 (anderson sus)HALDAR J 121 15.00    
3  DRIVEN FOR SUCCESS Oct03 Sep19 Sep04 Jul17 Jun30 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 121 6.00    
4  I'M LEGIT Oct06 Sep16 Aug17 Jul19 Jun15 (melancon paul)AVILES YAN 124 15.00    
5  SERGER Sep19 Aug28 Aug03 Jul24 Jul04 (zielinski richar)RIVERA R 121 4.50 ★    
6  NEAR PERFECT Jun30 Jun02 Apr27 Mar23 Feb16 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 121 8.00 17% 4.90    
7  BUCKEYE PRINCESS Sep07 Aug18 Aug24     (drury jr)MCKEE J 121 2.00 54% 0.80    
8  COSTUME JEWELRY Sep28 Sep07 Aug14 Jul26 May25 (morales saul)BERRIOS HECTOR 124 15.00    
9  IN TROUBLED WATERS Oct06 Sep14 Aug24 Aug10 Aug02 (faulkn)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 10.00    
10  FACTISIMFLASHY Aug26 Jul22 Jun30 Jun17 Jun02 (antonuik jerr)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
MVR-6   10/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($8K) Purse ($17.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMIGO'S AFFAIR Sep12 Sep03 Jun21 Jun01 May16 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 119 4.50 12% 7.20    
2  NO COMMISSION Sep16 Sep07 Aug23 Aug09 Jul13 (figueroa ces)AYALA J 124 12.00    
3  TIME HEIST Oct06 Sep15 Aug13 Jul26 Jul15 (watkin)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 2.00 15% 5.50    
4  LAZARUS PROJECT Sep26 Sep18 Sep05 Aug29 Aug16 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 124 8.00    
5  MAKING ME CRAZY Sep28 Sep13 Apr25 Mar28 Mar09 (mahan josep)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 10.00    
6  MALIBU CLASSIC Sep27 Sep06 Aug10 Jul24 Jun29 (brown gle)HERNANDEZ H 124 15.00    
7  GEHRIG Sep27 Aug17 Jun10 May08 Apr04 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 124 2.50 41% 1.40    
8  K P SILVER BULLET Oct03 Sep12 Jul20 Jul03 Jun15 (jackson r)RIVERA R 124 6.00 9% 9.50    
 
MVR-7   10/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($5K) Purse ($17.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEAM GOLD DIGGER Sep27 Sep06 Aug22 Jul26 Jul17 (ramgeet tina)RAMGEET R 126 3.50 6% 15.90    
SCR  DREAM MUSIC Oct02 Aug14 Jul18 Jul04 Oct04 (urieta johann)BARBARAN ERIK 126 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  QUEENOFCATNIPHILL Sep25 Aug17 Jul10 Jun01 May22 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 119 4.50    
4  SUPORB Sep30 Sep14 Aug29 Aug15 Aug02 (hernandez)CORREA L 124 8.00    
SCR  CAROL'S ROYALTY Oct03 Sep12 Aug29 Aug16 Jul17 (romero jose )ROSARIO L 126 5.00 9% 9.90    
6  GRAN MAMIBELLA Sep27 Sep06 Jul27 Jun21 Jun01 (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 124 6.00    
7  JOLIE RULER Sep30 Sep14 Aug26 Aug15 Jul12 (ramos franc)LAGUNES GABRIEL 124 12.00    
8  LATER DAYS Oct16 Oct04 Sep12 Sep05 Aug22 (silva )BATISTA ALBERTO 126 2.50 62% 0.60    
 
MVR-8   10/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KAT TRAX Aug31 Aug01 Jul19 Jul03 Jun14 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 121 3.00 14% 6.10    
2  MY TWO JAKES Oct04 Sep14 Aug29 Aug09 Jul19 (go)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 6.00    
3  DESDEMONA KAY Oct04 Sep13 Aug16 Aug03 Jul20 (riley barbara)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 15.00    
4  DOLCE MARIE Oct04         (urieta johann)BRACHO A 123 3.50 24% 3.10    
5  HALO EFFECT Oct03 Aug29 Aug09 Jul19 Jul05 (yoder )BATISTA ALBERTO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SWEETER THAN HONEY Sep28 Sep22 Sep01 Aug23 Aug03 (figueroa ces)CRUZ JUAN 124 20.00    
7  RATATAT Sep21 Aug23 Aug01 Jul03 Jun19 (rone mike)RIVERA R 121 2.50 41% 1.40    
8  GHOSTLY REVIVAL Oct02 Sep11 Aug22 Aug09 Jul25 (romero a)BARBARAN ERIK 121 15.00    
9  MANDOLIN BREEZE Sep21 Aug23 Aug01 Jul19 Jul05 (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 121 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.