Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belmont At The Big A
Saturday - September 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BAQ-1   WIN (6/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/1)-(6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/1)-(6/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1)-(6/7/2)-(5/1/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
BAQ-2   WIN (6/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/2)-(6/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/2)-(6/7/2)-(6/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/2)-(5/1/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/7/2)-(5/1/6)-(6/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
BAQ-3   WIN (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/6)-(5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/6)-(6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/1/6)-(6/3)-(6/7/2/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
BAQ-4   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/7/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/3)-(6/7/3)-(6/7/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/3)-(6/7/2/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(6/7/2/5)-(7/2/8/10) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
BAQ-5   WIN (6/7/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/2/5)-(6/7/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/2/5)-(6/7/2/5)-(6/7/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/7/2/5)-(7/2/8/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/7/2/5)-(7/2/8/10)-(7/3/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
BAQ-6   WIN (7/2/8/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/8/10)-(7/2/8/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/8/10)-(7/2/8/10)-(7/2/8/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/2/8/10)-(7/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/8/10)-(7/3/8)-(6/10/1/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
BAQ-7   WIN (7/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/3/8)-(7/3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/3/8)-(7/3/8)-(7/3/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/3/8)-(6/10/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/3/8)-(6/10/1/3)-(6/1/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
BAQ-8   WIN (6/10/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/10/1/3)-(6/10/1/3/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/10/1/3)-(6/10/1/3/2)-(6/10/1/3/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/10/1/3)-(6/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/10/1/3)-(6/1/3)-(6/7/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
BAQ-9   WIN (6/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/3)-(6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/3)-(6/7/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
BAQ-10   WIN (6/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/3)-(6/7/5/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/3)-(6/7/5/8/3)-(6/7/5/8/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BAQ-1   09/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEDGE THE RISK Aug06         (brown c)CARMOUCHE K 119 5.00 16% 5.30    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of REVERED by IN REALITY (GB))
2  IGNITE THE LIGHT         (dutrow r)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of BY THE LIGHT by MALIBU MOON)
3  COMMANDER OF TRUTH         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 17% 4.80    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of JUNGLE TALE by LION HEART)
4  HEARTENED         (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 119 5.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of RARE FIND by BERNARDINI)
5  BOUNTEOUS (IRE)         (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 119 8.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of HAIL by TAPIT)
6  HURRICANE NELSON Aug12         (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 119 2.00 44% 1.30    
  (by KHOZAN out of FRENCH POLITICS by POLITICAL FORCE)
7  PRIVATE DESIRE Jul29         (pletcher tod)CASTELLANO J 119 4.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BRAHMS CAT by WILDCAT HEIR)
 
BAQ-2   09/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEZOS Jul22 Jul01 Jun10 May06 Apr21 (fisher l)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 30.00    
2  SUGAR GRAY LEONARD Aug17 Jul20 Jul15 May28 Apr29 (dutrow richar)ORTIZ JR 123 3.50 22% 3.50    
3  LEDDY Jul23 Jul08 Jun04 May19 Feb11 (goberdhan chan)RICHARDS G 121 20.00    
4  CAPONE Sep17 Aug13 Jul01 Jun02 May05 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 123 6.00    
5  KOOL KATHMANDU Feb11 Dec16 Nov06     (baker charlton)LEZCANO JOSE 120 10.00    
6  VICTORIOUS WAVE Aug05 Jun27 Apr20 Mar26 Mar04 (englehart chri)ORTIZ L 123 1.80 30% 2.30    
7  OCEAN'S RESERVE Sep02 Jul23 Jun17 May29 Dec29 (gyarmati lea)CASTELLANO J 123 1.60 27% 2.70    
 
BAQ-3   09/16/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAR PRINCESS Mar12 Feb12 Jan14 Nov20   (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 124 4.50 28% 2.60    
  (by WAR FRONT out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  AKAYLA (IRE) Oct22 Aug28       (brown c)CASTELLANO J 120 3.50    
  (by UNKNOWN out of POST PERFECTION by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
3  MISS OUR HERO Aug18         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 5.00    
  (by TAPIT out of MARKET MAGIC by AFTER MARKET)
4  AFRICAN WATERS         (mcgaughey clau)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of VAULCLUSE by A.P. INDY)
5  VANISHED Jul15 Jun10 May13     (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00 36% 1.80    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ELUSIVE PEARL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
6  RHIANNON Aug18         (brown c)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00 10% 9.10    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of AUNTIE JOY by UNCLE MO)
7  PIPPI LONGSTOCKING         (mott william )FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00    
  (by FRANKEL (GB) out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  RAYYA VALENTINE Aug18         (summers chad)FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of RAYYA by TIZ WONDERFUL)
 
BAQ-4   09/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCE JAMES Jul22 Jun24 May26 Mar30 Feb26 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 123 2.00    
SCR  JOKER BOY Aug30 Aug16 May20 Apr08 Mar12 (jacobson david)DAVIS KATIE 123 2.00    
2  AIR SHOW Aug30 Aug19 Jul22 Jul08 Apr29 (rodriguez ru)CASTELLANO J 123 10.00    
3  QUICKFLASH Aug19 Jul12 Jun05 May22 Apr24 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  NEVER EARLY Jul10 Jun19 May22 Aug24 Aug03 (englehart jef)OLVER MADISON 116 10.00    
SCR  WINNING DRIVE Aug30 Aug05 Jun24 May26 Mar26 (kantarma)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 20.00    
6  BUSTIN SHOUT Aug23 Jul14 Jun13 May14 Aug21 (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 121 3.50 60% 0.70    
7  FLAMINGO HAWK Aug19 Jul02 May19 Mar26 Nov12 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 4.50 ★    
8  POPPY'S PRIDE Aug19 Jul23 May26 May07 Mar25 (rodriguez g)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 4.00    
 
BAQ-5   09/16/2023 7260ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CYBER NINJA Aug13 Jul08 Jun02 Apr20 Mar11 (mott i)ORTIZ L 120 3.50    
2  CATCH THAT PARTY Aug26 Jul21 Jun23 May28 Nov11 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 124 4.50 22% 3.50    
3  ROYAL SPIRIT Sep02 Aug18 Jul21 Jun24 May11 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 5.00    
4  HOLD THE SALSA Jun24 May27 May04 Apr01 Jul02 (lugovich li)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 15.00    
5  BEE MAJOR Sep04 Aug10 Jul08 Jul27   (de hor)RIVERA R 117 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  RAMBLIN' WRECK Aug17 Jul20 Jun18 Dec17 Nov26 (gargan danny)ORTIZ JR 120 2.00 28% 2.60    
7  SCRAMBLE Jul22 Jun25 May07 Mar03 Jan21 (tagg barclay)CASTELLANO J 120 4.00 27% 2.80    
8  LAUREL VALLEY Aug23 Jun25 Jun11 Feb18 Jan08 (maker j)CARMOUCHE K 120 20.00    
SCR  PADDINGTON Aug18 Jul22 Jun29 May27   (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 118 1.80    
 
BAQ-6   09/16/2023 3960ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VILLI OLENTO Aug30 Jul22 Jul01 Jun03   (englehart chris)DAVIS KATIE 119 15.00    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of GILDED SPLINTERS by HENRYTHENAVIGATOR)
2  MITOLE MAGIC         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 119 2.50 29% 2.40    
  (by MITOLE out of BLAKE'S MAGIC by BERNSTEIN)
3  WAY TO BE MARIE         (atras ro)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 15.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of WOMAN OF THE WORLD by HENRYTHENAVIGATOR)
SCR  NATURAL FACT         (pregman john)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 30.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of MIZZEN OUT by MIZZEN MAST)
5  LA PICASITA Jul08         (antonucci je)CASTELLANO J 119 20.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of PICARDIA by STORMY ATLANTIC)
6  AGRA         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 10.00    
  (by BLAME out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
7  EVER SO SWEET (IRE) Jul20         (cox h)CARMOUCHE K 119 1.80 30% 2.30    
  (by CALYX out of SHINE by JIMMY CREED)
8  MAYFLY Aug17 Jun11       (clement christ)LEZCANO JOSE 119 6.00 20% 4.10    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of CRYSTAL MOONLIGHT by NEW APPROACH (IRE))
9  DON'T SAY IT         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 119 10.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of FOREVER DISCREET by BERNARDINI)
10  PROGENY Sep03         (weaver george)ORTIZ L 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of CABBAGE KEY by A.P. INDY)
 
BAQ-7   09/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($65K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THUNDERIAN Aug25 Aug12 Jul13 Jun25 Jun09 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 6.00    
2  SKYLANDER Aug26 Jul03 Jun09 May11 Apr13 (trites a)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 8.00    
3  WARRIOR RICHARD Aug25 Jul28 Jul04 May27 Apr23 (falcone rober)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00 16% 5.40    
SCR  MEMPHIS Aug12 Jul19 Jul01     (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00    
5  ARREBATO Aug31 Jul04 Jun25 Jun09 Apr08 (chatte)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 15.00    
6  RIDE UP Aug17 Jul14 Jun17 May20 Apr22 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 118 2.50    
7  KUNSHAN BRIDGE Aug31 Aug17 May26 Mar18 Jan21 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 122 3.50 48% 1.10    
8  AMERICAN LAW Sep01 Jul22 Jun10 May06 Apr01 (brown bruce )CASTELLANO J 122 8.00 12% 7.40    
 
BAQ-8   09/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  DURANTE Aug19 Aug02 Jun23 Jun10 May20 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 126 2.50 13% 6.80    
SCR  NOLO CONTESTO Aug24 Jul22 Jun21 Jun11 May21 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 2.50    
2  TWENTY FOUR MAMBA Aug13 Jul08 Jun15 May19 Apr30 (baker charlton)LEZCANO JOSE 122 10.00 ★    
3  CASTLE CHAOS Aug13 Jul23 Jun03 Jun02 Apr07 (falcone ro)RIVERA R 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  JAKE ROCKS Jul26 Apr27 Apr01 Mar04 Feb05 (schettino domin)DAVIS KATIE 124 15.00    
5  EMERALD FOREST Jul14 Jun15 Apr01 Feb04 Jan12 (kantarma)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 20.00    
6  VITTORIO Aug13 Jul08 May27 Apr20 Mar18 (mott i)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 42% 1.40    
7  TOPS THE CHART Aug04 Jul14 Apr20 Dec06 Oct25 (duarte jorge)CASTELLANO J 122 20.00    
8  SHIVAREE (GB) Dec22 Dec10 Oct01 Aug13 Jun12 (david a)CARMOUCHE K 122 12.00    
9  SEVEN NATION ARMY Aug18 Jul22 Jun15 Apr23 Mar09 (rodriguez g)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 6.00    
10  KING ANGELO Jul28 May20 Mar30 Feb18 Jan13 (abreu r)ORTIZ JR 124 4.50 21% 3.70    
 
BAQ-9   09/16/2023 7260ft TURF RC12 FIRM Fasig-Tipton Jockey Club Oaks Invitational Purse ($350K) 3 F PT- 5:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LAST CALL (IRE) Sep03 Jul22 Jun25 May20 Nov04 (attard kevin)ORTIZ JR 122 3.50 19% 4.30    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  QUARREL Sep01 Jul14 Jun22 May27 Nov19 (ribaudo robert)ORTIZ L 122 8.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of PROMOTIONAL by ARTIE SCHILLER)
3  NEECIE MARIE Aug21 Jul24 Jul12 Jun07 May08 (reid e)ADORNO ABNER 122 12.00 15% 5.90    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of LODE LADY by POSSE)
4  STEPHANIE'S CHARM Sep01 Jul14 Jun22 May13 Mar11 (jimenez jos)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 30.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of VOYELLE by BROKEN VOW)
5  HIGHLAND GRACE Jul04 Jun03 May07 Mar05 Jan22 (tagg barclay)CASTELLANO J 122 5.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of CAROLINE THOMAS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  ETERNAL HOPE (IRE)         (appleby charles)SPENCER P 122 1.00 41% 1.40    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
7  SPEIRLING BEAG (IRE) Aug13 Jul08       (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 122 5.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of STARSCAPE by GHOSTZAPPER)
 
BAQ-10   09/16/2023 3960ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT- 5:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARCHIVIST Aug27 Jul27       (chich)HERNANDEZ OMAR 119 30.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of A TRUE PUSSYCAT by YES IT'S TRUE)
2  TAP THE KEG Aug09 Jul13       (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 119 20.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of KEY IS TO WIN by DIXIE UNION)
3  KING'S DAUGHTER         (duarte jorge)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of ACQUANT by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  DAISY'S ANGEL         (miceli m)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 15.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of QUIERO GANAR by LASTING APPROVAL)
5  ROSIE JEEKS         (brown c)ORTIZ L 119 4.00 ★    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of REMINGTON ROSE by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
6  INTO STARS Aug10         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 119 2.50 64% 0.60    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of STAR BILLING by DYNAFORMER)
7  NADOWESSI (IRE)         (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 119 3.00 12% 7.60    
  (by SIOUX NATION out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
8  STREET VIEW         (weaver george)ORTIZ JR 119 5.00 ★    
  (by STREET BOSS out of VIEW by VICE REGENT)
9  THAT'STHEFACTJACK         (schettino domin)CARMOUCHE K 119 15.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of CHI OMEGA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
10  BEETS         (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 119 12.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of BERNARDINIS ARROW by BERNARDINI)
SCR  VALUE AREA Aug06         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 2.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of HER SMILE by INCLUDE)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.