Handicappers' Racing Form

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Ellis Park
Saturday - July 08, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (5/4/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-2   Win (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00
ELP-3   Win (9/4/3/8/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-4   Win (2/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-5   Win (5/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-6   Win (1/7/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-7   Win (4/1/6/3/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-8   Win (2/1/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-9   Win (4/3/2/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ELP-1   07/08/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RIVER BOY Jun15 Apr13 Mar16 Jan29 Dec19 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 120 3.00    
STUD PUPPY Jun10 Apr30 Apr14 Mar18 Mar02 (zito nicholas)PETERSON FERRIN 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
PRIMER DIMER Jun10 Apr14 Mar18 Mar02 Feb04 (asmussen st)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 4.50    
SANTA CRUISER Jun17 May14 Mar05 Feb17 Jan22 (cano m)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 26% 2.80    
MAD ADAM Jun10 Mar22 Mar10 Jan12 Dec16 (amoss m)GILLIGAN JACK 124 1.80 36% 1.80    
PICO D'ORO May19 Feb18 Jan22 Nov21 Nov08 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 124 6.00 10% 9.40    
COMMANDER CARL Jun02 May14 Apr21 Mar23 Mar05 (ortiz alexa)ROCCO S 124 5.00    
 
ELP-2   07/08/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TRUTH EXPLAINED         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.00    
BEAUDACIOUS COLTON Jun15 May25 May03 Apr07   (hancock jack )MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 3.50 21% 3.70    
SCR  NULLIFY         (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 119 2.00    
SCR  KING BUKELE         (torres ale)AYALA ISAIAS 119 12.00 6% 17.10    
COLLINS         (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 42% 1.40    
PRETTY FAST         (foster eri)RODRIGUEZ A 114 6.00    
 
ELP-3   07/08/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MELINOE Jun15 Apr23 Feb16 Jan15   (maker j)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
RED JAG Apr23 Mar09 Feb08 Nov30   (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
REQUESTFORPROPOSAL Jul23 Jul03 May20 Mar27 Feb12 (mcgee paul)ROCCO S 124 5.00 19% 4.20    
NEWYEARSPRESENT Jun18 Jun02 May05 Apr01 Mar15 (o'connor robert )CHUAN MARTIN 124 4.00 26% 2.80    
AMANDA'S CHALLENGE Feb02 Jan08       (molloy thomas)HEARD TYLER 118 15.00    
PROUD PERFORMER May04 Apr06 Feb15 Jan18 Nov20 (king l)CASTANON L 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
HIGH END VIXEN Apr20 Nov18       (ortiz al)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00    
BLOSSOM DIVA Jun23 Jun01 May16     (galindo-torres cli)NAVAS YOEL 111 15.00 5% 19.00    
GET BY Jun15 May19 Apr19 Mar31 Oct01 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 2.50 34% 2.00    
10  MISCHIEVOUS GAL Apr23 Mar18 Feb16 Nov24 Oct22 (mckeever andrew)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00    
 
ELP-4   07/08/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ITSABLINGTHING May29 May04 Apr15     (barrett roddi)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00    
JACKIE'S SPIRIT Jun15 May12 Apr08 Mar26 Sep28 (vaccarezza carl)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.50 44% 1.30    
BOLTS BABE Jan11 Nov13 Oct09 Oct02 Aug07 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50    
SCR  ELEGANT MOVES         (pittman bonnie)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 5% 19.00    
BAMBEROOSKI Jun27 May29 May06 Mar09 Feb23 (foster eri)RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00    
I GOTTA BOLT Jun15 Oct05 Sep28 Sep02 Aug26 (hancock john)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
ALTER THE STARS         (tomlinson m)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
STORM HAVEN May29 Oct26 Sep16     (asmussen m)LANERIE J 124 1.40 32% 2.10    
 
ELP-5   07/08/2023 3630ft TURF RC11 FIRM Dade Park Dash Purse ($100K) 3 ALL PT- 2:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MOUNSIEUR COCO Nov26 Oct09 Aug28 Aug20 Jul16 (gutierrez fausti)CHUAN MARTIN 118 3.50    
BAL A KAZOO Jun20 May28 May06 Apr18 Sep06 (gorham m)ROCCO S 118 8.00    
MAJOR BLUE Jun11 May29 May06 Apr08 Mar23 (lukas wayn)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 10.00    
STORM DADDY May28 May15 Apr16 Mar09 Feb11 (gonzale)ULLOA PATRICIO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
RELEASE MCCRAKEN Apr29 Mar25 Dec03 Nov17 Oct21 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.00 39% 1.60    
CHISELER May20 Mar09 Jan19 Dec28 Nov05 (foley greg)LANERIE J 118 5.00 34% 1.90    
SCR  MIDNIGHT TAXES May28 May06 Apr08 Mar11 Feb25 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.00    
 
ELP-6   07/08/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JERSEY PEARL May27 Jan26 Dec31 Oct08 Aug28 (miller darr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 1.60 34% 2.00    
LET'S BE CLEAR Jun14 Mar31 Dec15 Nov13 Sep22 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.50    
KANT BELIEVE IT Jun22 Mar09 Jan21 Jan01 Dec09 (divito jame)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 13% 6.60    
FRANKEL BABY May27 Aug26 Aug09     (butler gera)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 20.00    
J L'S ROCKETTE Mar27 Feb28 Jan10 Nov07 Sep25 (reed eric )RODRIGUEZ A 117 6.00 5% 19.00    
PUNCHY GIRL Dec30 May06 Apr09 Feb25 Jan28 (morse randy )MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 12.00    
FASHION RAGE Jun09 Apr23 Mar09 May08 Feb26 (asmussen steven)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00 32% 2.10    
 
ELP-7   07/08/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MOON CAT May17 Apr21 Mar11 Feb04 Jan07 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 118 3.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  LAZARUS Jun18 Jun03 May11 Apr21 Mar10 (cundiff wa)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00    
BEN DREAMING Jun25 May28 May04 Apr02 Mar25 (divito p)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 9% 10.40    
MAHONEY ROAD Mar10 Feb01 Sep29 Apr16 Mar17 (foley greg)LANERIE J 123 4.50 29% 2.40    
SCR  HE'S A ANGEL Jun01 Apr14 Mar16 Jan11 Oct29 (macias adolfo)CANNON DECLAN 123 10.00    
TRIGGER HAPPY Jun15 Jun02 May12 Mar22 Mar10 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 5.00 10% 9.30    
IMPULSIVENESS Jun14 May11 Apr23 Mar25 Feb25 (irion heather)ARRIETA REYNIER 123 10.00    
UNCLE BERLEY Jun02 May05 Mar19 Feb26 Jan11 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 123 6.00    
MISTER SHARPIE Jun25 May18 Mar09 Feb10 Jul10 (foster eric)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
10  SKATE TO HEAVEN Jun10 Jul04 Apr16 Mar19 Jan29 (walden william)HEARD TYLER 123 12.00 6% 15.70    
 
ELP-8   07/08/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COMMUNICATION MEMO Jun22 Jan01 Dec16 Nov19 Oct21 (asmussen m)LANERIE J 120 6.00 10% 9.20    
LOYAL COMPANY Jun03 Apr28 Mar11     (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 120 1.80 62% 0.60    
NULLARBOR Jun15 Apr09 Feb11 Jan06 Oct10 (manley steve)LOPEZ E 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EASY FAST Jun11 May11       (divito jame)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
FUNNY UNCLE May06 Mar25 Mar09 Feb19 Feb04 (vance d)COURT K 120 15.00    
KING'S GLORY (GB) Apr23 Mar25 Aug27     (asmussen steven)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.00    
QUICK HAMMER Oct29 Sep16       (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 120 2.50    
ITZOS Jun03 Apr28 Mar25 Jan21 Dec29 (lobo paulo)RODRIGUEZ A 115 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-9   07/08/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
POOL NOODLE         (asmussen steven)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
JUST SAY SO May13 Apr19 Jan16 Sep14 Jul31 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 4.00 11% 7.70    
SCATLIE Jun02         (lynch a)CHUAN MARTIN 118 3.00 19% 4.30    
BOPPY May29 Mar25       (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50 47% 1.10    
SCR  NATURALIST         (medina rob)RODRIGUEZ A 113 20.00    
LADY DYNAMO May29 Apr19 Mar12     (tomlinson m)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
BEACH WALKN Jun02 May05 Apr07 Mar02   (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GOLDEN RUNNER Jun08 May20 Apr23 Apr01 Feb23 (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
KISS ME KATIE         (ortiz a)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 20.00    
10  MIRUS Jun03 May20 Aug07     (catalano wayne )GILLIGAN JACK 118 30.00    
11  BIRDIE ROSE May02 Sep24       (blair jordan)CASTANON L 118 20.00    
12  TAKE SHAPE Jun11 May18 Sep30     (arnold r)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
SCR  SNOW PRINCESS Jun03 Apr23 Mar16     (mott willia)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
SCR  MINDFUL Mar23         (devaux cherie)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 8.00    
SCR  CALM COOL Feb26 Feb09       (stall m)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
SCR  TIGER TAP May20 Apr01 Feb11 Dec26 Sep08 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.