Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - July 08, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (5/4/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2)-(5/4/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/6/2)-(5/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6/2)-(5/2)-(9/4/3/8/6) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
ELP-2   WIN (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/2)-(5/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/2)-(9/4/3/8/6) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (5/2)-(9/4/3/8/6)-(2/8/7) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
ELP-3   WIN (9/4/3/8/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/4/3/8/6)-(9/4/3/8/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/4/3/8/6)-(9/4/3/8/6)-(9/4/3/8/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/4/3/8/6)-(2/8/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (9/4/3/8/6)-(2/8/7)-(5/6/4) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-4   WIN (2/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/8/7)-(2/8/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/8/7)-(2/8/7)-(2/8/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/8/7)-(5/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/8/7)-(5/6/4)-(1/7/3/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-5   WIN (5/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/4)-(5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/4)-(1/7/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/6/4)-(1/7/3/5)-(4/1/6/3/10) 60 $1.00 $180 
ELP-6   WIN (1/7/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/3/5)-(1/7/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/3/5)-(1/7/3/5)-(1/7/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/3/5)-(4/1/6/3/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/7/3/5)-(4/1/6/3/10)-(2/1/8/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ELP-7   WIN (4/1/6/3/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/1/6/3/10)-(4/1/6/3/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/1/6/3/10)-(4/1/6/3/10)-(4/1/6/3/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/1/6/3/10)-(2/1/8/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/1/6/3/10)-(2/1/8/3)-(4/3/2/6/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
ELP-8   WIN (2/1/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/8/3)-(2/1/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/8/3)-(2/1/8/3)-(2/1/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/8/3)-(4/3/2/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (4/3/2/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/3/2/6/7)-(4/3/2/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/3/2/6/7)-(4/3/2/6/7)-(4/3/2/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/08/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($22K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIVER BOY Jun15 Apr13 Mar16 Jan29 Dec19 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 120 3.00    
2  STUD PUPPY Jun10 Apr30 Apr14 Mar18 Mar02 (zito nichol)PETERSON FERRIN 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
3  PRIMER DIMER Jun10 Apr14 Mar18 Mar02 Feb04 (asmussen )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 4.50    
4  SANTA CRUISER Jun17 May14 Mar05 Feb17 Jan22 (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 26% 2.80    
5  MAD ADAM Jun10 Mar22 Mar10 Jan12 Dec16 (amoss thomas )GILLIGAN JACK 124 1.80 36% 1.80    
6  PICO D'ORO May19 Feb18 Jan22 Nov21 Nov08 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 124 6.00 10% 9.40    
7  COMMANDER CARL Jun02 May14 Apr21 Mar23 Mar05 (ortiz ale)ROCCO S 124 5.00    
 
ELP-2   07/08/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRUTH EXPLAINED         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of LA CLOCHE by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  BEAUDACIOUS COLTON Jun15 May25 May03 Apr07   (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 3.50 21% 3.70    
  (by RACE DAY out of BEAUDACIOUS LADY by BEAU GENIUS)
SCR  NULLIFY         (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 119 2.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of BLAME IT ON ALPHIE by BLAME)
SCR  KING BUKELE         (torres a)AYALA ISAIAS 119 12.00 6% 17.10    
  (by OUTWORK out of SUPER CUB by OLD TRIESTE)
5  COLLINS         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 42% 1.40    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LADY LAVERY by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
6  PRETTY FAST         (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 114 6.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of NET by CURLIN)
 
ELP-3   07/08/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MELINOE Jun15 Apr23 Feb16 Jan15   (maker j)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
2  RED JAG Apr23 Mar09 Feb08 Nov30   (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
3  REQUESTFORPROPOSAL Jul23 Jul03 May20 Mar27 Feb12 (mcgee paul)ROCCO S 124 5.00 19% 4.20    
4  NEWYEARSPRESENT Jun18 Jun02 May05 Apr01 Mar15 (o'connor rober)CHUAN MARTIN 124 4.00 26% 2.80    
5  AMANDA'S CHALLENGE Feb02 Jan08       (molloy thomas)HEARD TYLER 118 15.00    
6  PROUD PERFORMER May04 Apr06 Feb15 Jan18 Nov20 (king l)CASTANON L 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  HIGH END VIXEN Apr20 Nov18       (ortiz john )PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00    
8  BLOSSOM DIVA Jun23 Jun01 May16     (galindo-torres c)NAVAS YOEL 111 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  GET BY Jun15 May19 Apr19 Mar31 Oct01 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 2.50 34% 2.00    
10  MISCHIEVOUS GAL Apr23 Mar18 Feb16 Nov24 Oct22 (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00    
 
ELP-4   07/08/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITSABLINGTHING May29 May04 Apr15     (barrett rod)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00    
2  JACKIE'S SPIRIT Jun15 May12 Apr08 Mar26 Sep28 (vaccarezza ca)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.50 44% 1.30    
3  BOLTS BABE Jan11 Nov13 Oct09 Oct02 Aug07 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50    
SCR  ELEGANT MOVES         (pittman bonnie)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  BAMBEROOSKI Jun27 May29 May06 Mar09 Feb23 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00    
6  I GOTTA BOLT Jun15 Oct05 Sep28 Sep02 Aug26 (hancock jo)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
7  ALTER THE STARS         (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  STORM HAVEN May29 Oct26 Sep16     (asmussen steven)LANERIE J 124 1.40 32% 2.10    
 
ELP-5   07/08/2023 3630ft TURF RC11 FIRM Dade Park Dash Purse ($100K) 3 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOUNSIEUR COCO Nov26 Oct09 Aug28 Aug20 Jul16 (gutierrez faus)CHUAN MARTIN 118 3.50    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of COOKING MAMA by BANDINI)
2  BAL A KAZOO Jun20 May28 May06 Apr18 Sep06 (gorham robert )ROCCO S 118 8.00    
  (by BAL A BALI out of GOLDEN SKY by SEA THE STARS)
3  MAJOR BLUE Jun11 May29 May06 Apr08 Mar23 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 10.00    
  (by FLATTER out of IRE by POLITICAL FORCE)
4  STORM DADDY May28 May15 Apr16 Mar09 Feb11 (gonza)ULLOA PATRICIO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of STORM STAR by STORM BIRD)
5  RELEASE MCCRAKEN Apr29 Mar25 Dec03 Nov17 Oct21 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.00 39% 1.60    
  (by MCCRAKEN out of CONJURESS by INDIAN CHARLIE)
6  CHISELER May20 Mar09 Jan19 Dec28 Nov05 (foley greg)LANERIE J 118 5.00 34% 1.90    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SPINDLE by MARI'S BOOK)
SCR  MIDNIGHT TAXES May28 May06 Apr08 Mar11 Feb25 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of INCLUDE KATHERINE by INCLUDE)
 
ELP-6   07/08/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JERSEY PEARL May27 Jan26 Dec31 Oct08 Aug28 (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 1.60 34% 2.00    
2  LET'S BE CLEAR Jun14 Mar31 Dec15 Nov13 Sep22 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.50    
3  KANT BELIEVE IT Jun22 Mar09 Jan21 Jan01 Dec09 (divito ja)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 13% 6.60    
4  FRANKEL BABY May27 Aug26 Aug09     (butler ge)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 20.00    
5  J L'S ROCKETTE Mar27 Feb28 Jan10 Nov07 Sep25 (reed eri)RODRIGUEZ A 117 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  PUNCHY GIRL Dec30 May06 Apr09 Feb25 Jan28 (morse rand)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 12.00    
7  FASHION RAGE Jun09 Apr23 Mar09 May08 Feb26 (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00 32% 2.10    
 
ELP-7   07/08/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOON CAT May17 Apr21 Mar11 Feb04 Jan07 (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 118 3.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  LAZARUS Jun18 Jun03 May11 Apr21 Mar10 (cundiff )RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00    
3  BEN DREAMING Jun25 May28 May04 Apr02 Mar25 (divito james )TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 9% 10.40    
4  MAHONEY ROAD Mar10 Feb01 Sep29 Apr16 Mar17 (foley greg)LANERIE J 123 4.50 29% 2.40    
SCR  HE'S A ANGEL Jun01 Apr14 Mar16 Jan11 Oct29 (macias adolfo)CANNON DECLAN 123 10.00    
6  TRIGGER HAPPY Jun15 Jun02 May12 Mar22 Mar10 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 5.00 10% 9.30    
7  IMPULSIVENESS Jun14 May11 Apr23 Mar25 Feb25 (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 123 10.00    
8  UNCLE BERLEY Jun02 May05 Mar19 Feb26 Jan11 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 6.00    
9  MISTER SHARPIE Jun25 May18 Mar09 Feb10 Jul10 (foster eric)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
10  SKATE TO HEAVEN Jun10 Jul04 Apr16 Mar19 Jan29 (walden william)HEARD TYLER 123 12.00 6% 15.70    
 
ELP-8   07/08/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMUNICATION MEMO Jun22 Jan01 Dec16 Nov19 Oct21 (asmussen steven)LANERIE J 120 6.00 10% 9.20    
2  LOYAL COMPANY Jun03 Apr28 Mar11     (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 120 1.80 62% 0.60    
3  NULLARBOR Jun15 Apr09 Feb11 Jan06 Oct10 (manley steve)LOPEZ E 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EASY FAST Jun11 May11       (divito ja)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
5  FUNNY UNCLE May06 Mar25 Mar09 Feb19 Feb04 (vance d)COURT K 120 15.00    
6  KING'S GLORY (GB) Apr23 Mar25 Aug27     (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.00    
7  QUICK HAMMER Oct29 Sep16       (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 120 2.50    
8  ITZOS Jun03 Apr28 Mar25 Jan21 Dec29 (lobo pau)RODRIGUEZ A 115 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-9   07/08/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POOL NOODLE         (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
  (by CURLIN out of TIZ NEWS by TIZNOW)
2  JUST SAY SO May13 Apr19 Jan16 Sep14 Jul31 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 4.00 11% 7.70    
  (by WAR FRONT out of SAY (IRE) by GALILEO (IRE))
3  SCATLIE Jun02         (lynch a)CHUAN MARTIN 118 3.00 19% 4.30    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CANA by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
4  BOPPY May29 Mar25       (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50 47% 1.10    
  (by BLAME out of DARING DANCER by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  NATURALIST         (medina r)RODRIGUEZ A 113 20.00    
  (by TONALIST out of NEW NORMAL by FORESTRY)
6  LADY DYNAMO May29 Apr19 Mar12     (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of SEAUXBELLE by DYNAFORMER)
7  BEACH WALKN Jun02 May05 Apr07 Mar02   (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CHINA GROVE by CITY ZIP)
SCR  GOLDEN RUNNER Jun08 May20 Apr23 Apr01 Feb23 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of GOLD SERENADE by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  KISS ME KATIE         (ortiz john)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 20.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of SAVER THE WAY by SUPER SAVER)
10  MIRUS Jun03 May20 Aug07     (catalano wayn)GILLIGAN JACK 118 30.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of FARRELL by MALIBU MOON)
11  BIRDIE ROSE May02 Sep24       (blair jordan)CASTANON L 118 20.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HOMEMADE SALSA by TWO STEP SALSA)
12  TAKE SHAPE Jun11 May18 Sep30     (arnold george)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of LOOM by HARD SPUN)
SCR  SNOW PRINCESS Jun03 Apr23 Mar16     (mott will)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CANDY DRAWER by CANDY RIDE)
SCR  MINDFUL Mar23         (devaux cherie)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 8.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of TAPLESS by TAPIT)
SCR  CALM COOL Feb26 Feb09       (stall m)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of PORT CHARLOTTE by BLAME)
SCR  TIGER TAP May20 Apr01 Feb11 Dec26 Sep08 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
  (by TAPIT out of TIGER RIDE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.