Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Sunday - February 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (4/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/5)-(4/2/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/2/5)-(4/2/5/6)-(4/2/5/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/2/5)-(2/3/4/5/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/2/5)-(2/3/4/5/1)-(3/1/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-2   WIN (2/3/4/5/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/3/4/5/1)-(2/3/4/5/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/3/4/5/1)-(2/3/4/5/1)-(2/3/4/5/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/3/4/5/1)-(3/1/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/3/4/5/1)-(3/1/5/4)-(2/4/1/5/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
AQU-3   WIN (3/1/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/5/4)-(3/1/5/4/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/1/5/4)-(3/1/5/4/7)-(3/1/5/4/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/1/5/4)-(2/4/1/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5/4)-(2/4/1/5/7)-(2/6/1/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-4   WIN (2/4/1/5/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/4/1/5/7)-(2/4/1/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/4/1/5/7)-(2/4/1/5/7)-(2/4/1/5/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/4/1/5/7)-(2/6/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1/5/7)-(2/6/1/3)-(6/1/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-5   WIN (2/6/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/1/3)-(2/6/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/1/3)-(2/6/3/5)-(2/6/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/1/3)-(6/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/1/3)-(6/1/7)-(7/8/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-6   WIN (6/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/7)-(6/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/7)-(6/7/8)-(6/7/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/7)-(7/8/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/7)-(7/8/1)-(6/5/4/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-7   WIN (7/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/1)-(7/8/1/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/1)-(7/8/1/6/3)-(7/8/1/6/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/8/1)-(6/5/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/8/1)-(6/5/4/1)-(6/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-8   WIN (6/5/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/4/1)-(6/5/4/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/5/4/1)-(6/5/4/1/3)-(6/5/4/1/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/5/4/1)-(6/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
AQU-9   WIN (6/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/8)-(6/8/1/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/8)-(6/8/1/9)-(6/8/1/9) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   02/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROMISEHER AMERICA Jan15 Dec15       (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of PROMISEDYOUHEAVEN by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
2  UNDOUBTEDLY Jan05 Nov12       (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 16% 5.20    
  (by BLAME out of AND WHY NOT by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  WELCOMETOMYWORLD Dec18 Nov25 Nov06 Sep15   (atras rob)VARGAS A 120 10.00 ★    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of SOUND OF THUNDER by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
4  DON'T TELL AMY Dec18 Oct23       (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 48% 1.10    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of OH FLATTER ME by FLATTER)
5  LA GROTTE Jan15 Dec04 Oct23 Aug07   (morley thomas)PENNINGTON F 120 5.00 8% 12.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of QUALKRIS by MALIBU MOON)
6  AVANT Jan15 Nov04 Sep04     (pletcher a)CANCEL ERIC 120 2.50 ★    
  (by UNCLE MO out of ENTH by SEEKING THE GOLD)
 
AQU-2   02/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  B C GLORY DAYS Feb12 Jan21 Jan01 Dec09 Nov11 (barrera osca)TORRES A 113 10.00 10% 8.60    
2  CUMBERLAND BLUES Dec29 Nov13 Oct07 Aug31   (falcone rober)OLVER MADISON 116 3.50 27% 2.70    
3  GOT THE GOLD Jan13 Dec29 Nov26 Nov12 Oct15 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00 15% 5.80    
4  BOURBON'S HOPE Feb12 Jan01 Dec09 Nov10 Sep16 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 1.80 13% 6.80    
5  MISBEHAVED Jan23 Jan01 Nov30 Nov14 Oct17 (engl)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 8.00 13% 7.00    
6  AVA K'S BOY Feb12 Jan13 Dec29 Apr15 Mar06 (martin carlos)CASTILLO AMIN 120 10.00    
7  CAN'T BEAT ME Feb09 Dec31 Dec04 Nov11 Oct06 (begg j)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 6.00    
 
AQU-3   02/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREAT WORKOUT Nov11 Oct02 Sep18 Aug27 Jul28 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 1.60 26% 2.90    
2  SCOTTY Jan22 Jan07 Dec04 Nov18 Oct06 (diprima )DAVIS A 123 10.00    
3  WARRIOR IN CHIEF Feb05 Dec29 Nov17 Oct21 Aug25 (nevin michell)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 32% 2.10    
4  JUMPSTER Feb10 Jan15 Dec06 Nov15 Oct25 (sells rachel)HARKIE K 123 6.00 8% 11.00    
5  ROYAL REALM Feb10 Dec14 Jul19 Jun08 May06 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 3.50 11% 8.40    
6  AMERICAN LINCOLN Feb10 Jan22 Oct01 Sep03 Jul10 (romero jesus)TORRES A 113 20.00    
7  KUMAR Jan29 Jan07 Nov18 Oct21 Sep17 (barrera oscar)CASTILLO AMIN 123 8.00 ★    
 
AQU-4   02/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($50K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TARA'S TALENT Jan02 Dec07 Nov15 Oct21 Mar04 (moore michae)HERNANDEZ ANDY 120 8.00 17% 4.90    
2  GIRL OF TOSCONOVA Nov10 Oct28 Jul03 Jun02 May05 (kantarmaci mert)CANCEL ERIC 120 3.00 20% 3.90    
3  KEEN DANCER Feb09 Jan22 Jan15 Jan06 Dec15 (per)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 123 10.00    
4  BUSTIN BAY Jan19 Dec29 Dec01 Oct23 Sep24 (arriaga anton)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.60 18% 4.60    
5  BEAUTIFUL KAREN Jan29 Jan15 Dec03 Oct23 Sep23 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 4.50 13% 6.60    
6  TRADE SECRET Jan15 Dec10 Nov13 Oct20 Sep10 (brown r)PENNINGTON F 123 8.00    
7  OK HONEY Oct14 Aug18 Jul15 Jun02 May05 (rodriguez gusta)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00 10% 8.60    
 
AQU-5   02/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($74K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUSTER Jan05 Nov20 Oct21 Sep25 Jun09 (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.50 19% 4.40    
SCR  FULL MOON FEVER Jan06 Dec09 Nov16 Oct10 Sep19 (hennig ma)VARGAS A 123 2.50 ★    
2  AWESOME NATIVE Jan14 Dec15       (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 118 2.00 21% 3.70    
3  HUSH OF A STORM Apr16 Mar06 Feb10     (morey e)DAVIS KATIE 118 8.00 15% 5.70    
4  WHITTINGTON PARK Dec29 Nov14 Oct18 Sep18 Aug20 (englehar)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 12.00    
5  BALDIZAR Jan06 Dec08 Oct14 Sep23   (bond ja)LEZCANO JOSE 120 4.00 ★    
6  OVERSTEP Jan26         (pletcher a)CANCEL ERIC 120 3.00 21% 3.90    
7  THE COBBLER Jan15 Feb26 Jan14     (henry nevill)SAMUEL L 118 50.00    
 
AQU-6   02/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($45K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ACHILLES HEEL Jan28 Jan07 Dec02 Nov05 Sep28 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 4.00 21% 3.70    
SCR  MAJOR SPIN Jan14 Jan01 Dec03 Nov13 Oct22 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 113 4.00 ★    
SCR  LEGENDARY LORE Dec18 Nov25 Apr23 Mar05 Feb11 (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00 ★    
SCR  OPEN TIL MIDNIGHT Jan08 Dec11 Oct30 Feb11   (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 12.00    
4  SALUTE TO AMERICA Jan27 Dec16 Nov19 Oct15 Apr30 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 15.00    
5  BATTER UP BUD Feb01 Jan10 Aug07 Jul09 Apr24 (taylor joseph)PENNINGTON F 120 8.00    
6  COLLOQUY Jan07 Dec03 Sep18 Aug27 Jun30 (de horaci)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00 44% 1.30    
7  MANDATORY Jan29 Dec18 Nov26 Mar27 Feb06 (kimmel)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 3.00 12% 7.50    
8  NORGAY Feb02 Jan19 Jan08 Dec09 Nov10 (arenas marce)LAPRIDA JEREMY 123 12.00 ★    
 
AQU-7   02/19/2023 6270ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WIN THE DAY Jan21 Dec29 Nov04 Oct02 Sep02 (o'neill doug)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00 7% 14.00    
2  NAVAL AVIATOR Jan07 Nov27 Oct25 Sep24 Jul22 (jones michae)LAPRIDA JEREMY 120 8.00    
3  CURLIN'S WISDOM Jan06 Dec18 Dec02 Oct30 Oct16 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 6.00 ★    
SCR  BE BETTER Jan20 Nov27 Oct22 Jul29 Jul04 (pletch)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 10.00    
5  AMATTEROFTIME Jan30 Jan15 Jan04 Nov23 Nov02 (ramirez silvi)OCASIO M 120 12.00    
6  LOCALLY OWNED Jan20 Dec11 Nov12 Sep30 Aug25 (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 118 6.00 ★    
7  GASOLINE Jan05 Dec02 Sep29 Aug28 Jul08 (pletcher a)CANCEL ERIC 123 3.00 34% 1.90    
8  TONAL IMPACT Jan29 Jan05 Dec18 Nov23 Sep28 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.50 31% 2.30    
 
AQU-8   02/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC11 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 4:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAIRO SUGAR Jan19 Dec30 Nov29 Nov08 Oct14 (bedard alan)WOLFSONT ANDREW 118 15.00 6% 15.70    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SPUN SUGAR by AWESOME AGAIN)
2  LUNA LOCA Jan06 Nov26 Oct08 Aug18 Jul27 (duggan d)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 8.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of SWEET LOVE by BUILT FOR PLEASURE)
3  SWEETEST PRINCESS Jan14 Nov18 Oct08 Sep15 Aug03 (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 118 4.50 ★    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SWEET CAUSE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  STARRY MIDNIGHT Jan22 Nov27       (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 118 6.00 8% 11.90    
  (by CONNECT out of STREET SINGER by STREET CRY (IRE))
5  LES BON TEMPS Dec17 Oct30 Sep23 Aug26 Jul04 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.40 8% 11.80    
  (by LAOBAN out of WINSANITY by TAPIZAR)
6  I'MHAVINGAMOMENT Dec30         (mott i)DAVIS DYLAN 118 1.80 55% 0.80    
  (by UNCLE MO out of AVERYMERRYMOMENT by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
AQU-9   02/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($36K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WICCA WISDOM Oct08 Aug25 Jun02 May07 Apr15 (ramirez m)DAVIS DYLAN 120 10.00 ★    
2  RICELLE Jan20 Jan01 Dec15 Nov25 Oct21 (legall r)DAVIS A 123 20.00    
3  SUPER DUPER FLY Dec20 Nov22 Oct12 Aug30 Jul19 (perez flores)LAPRIDA JEREMY 123 30.00    
4  APRIL ANTICS Feb05 Jan13 Dec08 Nov10 Aug26 (kantar)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 8.00    
SCR  CARBON Feb09 Jan06 Dec15 Nov18 Oct01 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 1.80 15% 5.70    
6  TIMED OUT Apr09 Feb25 Jan20     (nevin michelle)PENNINGTON F 120 3.00 53% 0.90    
7  BRAVO REGINA Oct25 Oct07 Sep01 Jun27 May31 (romero rafael)BOWMAN ADAM 120 15.00    
8  RUN DEVIL Jan13 Dec18 Nov27     (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 120 3.50 8% 12.10    
9  NEW YORK SUPREME Jan20 Dec29 Dec08 Nov12 Jan08 (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 123 8.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.