Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 25, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/6)-(1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/6)-(6/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6)-(6/4/7)-(6/1/10/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/7)-(6/4/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/4/7)-(6/4/7/1)-(6/4/7/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/4/7)-(6/1/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/7)-(6/1/10/4)-(4/6/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/1/10/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/10/4)-(6/1/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/10/4)-(6/1/10/4)-(6/1/10/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/10/4)-(4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/1/10/4)-(4/6/7)-(8/6/2/10) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/7)-(4/6/8/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/6/7)-(4/6/8/7)-(4/6/8/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/6/7)-(8/6/2/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/6/7)-(8/6/2/10)-(5/8/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (8/6/2/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/2/10)-(8/6/2/1/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/6/2/10)-(8/6/2/1/10)-(8/6/2/1/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/6/2/10)-(5/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/6/2/10)-(5/8/1)-(4/1/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (5/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/1)-(5/8/4/12/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/1)-(5/8/4/12/1)-(5/8/4/12/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/8/1)-(4/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/8/1)-(4/1/3)-(11/7/3/10/8) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(11/7/3/10/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(11/7/3/10/8)-(7/4/11/9/1) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-8   WIN (11/7/3/10/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/7/3/10/8)-(11/7/3/10/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/7/3/10/8)-(11/7/3/10/8)-(11/7/3/10/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/7/3/10/8)-(7/4/11/9/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-9   WIN (7/4/11/9/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/4/11/9/1)-(7/4/11/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/4/11/9/1)-(7/4/11/9/1)-(7/4/11/9/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/25/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIL GIN N CLASS Jul31 Jul06 Jun12 May01 Apr16 (eggleston tim)MORALES EDGAR 118 1.60 33% 2.00    
2  LITTLE SISTER SUE Aug19 Jul17 Jul05 Jun13 May23 (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 121 4.00    
3  BRIGHT LADY DAY Aug29 Jul31 Jul06 Jun19 May10 (jackson chri)MONCADA IRVING 111 8.00    
4  PALMETTO FURY Aug11 May30 Mar29 Feb02 Jan21 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.80 31% 2.30    
5  ITSABLINGTHING Aug19 Jul21 Jun27 May29 May02 (barret)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 121 15.00    
6  MILA JUNES Jun21 May30 May09 Mar15 Jan27 (van berg )BEALMEAR C 111 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-2   09/25/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIZMALICE Aug17         (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 119 4.00 ★    
2  COMBATTANTE Sep13 Jun22 May31     (desormeaux)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 6.00    
3  SPUNDERELLA Aug03         (puhich mike)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50    
4  KIM POSSIBLE         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 13% 6.60    
5  CRUZ CHICA Sep11         (cash l)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00    
6  JOYFUL JOSEPHINE Aug25         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 41% 1.40    
7  SIP'N' SPEED Sep09 Aug14       (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 13% 6.70    
 
CD-3   09/25/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA Aug25 Aug08 Jun27 Jun02 Apr20 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 118 3.50 34% 1.90    
2  SHERBET FOUNTAIN Aug19 Jul20 Jun19 Jun01 Mar06 (pino michael)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 4.50    
SCR  MISS TAPPY TONE Aug29 Jul13 Jun01 Apr30 Mar21 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 4.00    
4  BOBBIE SOX Aug18 Jun20 Jun02 May16 Apr20 (gonzalez )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  KACHOW Sep06 Jul18 Jun26 Jun01 Apr23 (curtsi)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 120 30.00    
6  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF Jul13 Feb24 Feb03 Jan04 Nov21 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00 34% 1.90    
7  WEATHER MAP Aug18 Jul14 Apr28 Apr06 Feb17 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 6.00    
SCR  ALAMO Aug18 Jul13 Jun08 May09 Apr19 (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
SCR  LATE NITE LIZZIE Jun08 May11 Mar07 Feb12 Jan20 (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 8.00    
10  HURRICANE LASSIE Jul17 Jul02 Apr23 Mar21 Mar01 (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 121 10.00 5% 18.80    
 
CD-4   09/25/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CASEYS MEMORY Sep06 Aug16 Jul26 Jun28 Jun14 (johnston la)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 15.00    
2  BREADMAN Aug18 Jul25 Sep27 Jul19 May13 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00    
3  THUNDERIAN Jul31 Jul04 May26 Apr26 Mar29 (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50    
4  PIKE PLACE Sep01 Jul31 Jul04 May31 May02 (mcgee pau)LEPAROUX R 122 2.50 37% 1.70    
5  MY NOBLE KNIGHT Sep11 Aug07 Jul26 Jul06 Jun24 (rivera xa)TORRES A 120 12.00    
6  SOARING BIRD Sep15 Aug12 Jun26 Jun12 May10 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 31% 2.20    
7  FOWLER BLUE Aug29 Jul30 Jul06 Dec10 Nov10 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  HUGE BIGLY Jul14 Jun07 Apr05 Mar21 Feb02 (shorter aaron)VAZQUEZ A 122 3.00 ★    
 
CD-5   09/25/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORAL         (drury j)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 ★    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of CROSS by MIGHTY)
2  ENDRICK Jul28         (camejo m)VAZQUEZ A 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of CORAL WAY by SMOKE GLACKEN)
3  BERMUDA BLITZ         (casse ma)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of BAGH OF JEWELZ by A.P. INDY)
SCR  LURED AWAY         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SKINDY by SKIP AWAY)
5  TAP EM' OUT         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 10.00    
  (by TAPIT out of INDIA by HENNESSY)
6  LANDING CRAFT         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 25% 3.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of BRIDGETTE BORDEAUX by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
7  MARKET WATCH         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of TOMATO BISQUE by MACHO UNO)
8  HOFF Sep11         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 50% 1.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of VIGOR by WAR FRONT)
9  BROTHA KENY         (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of RARAMURI PRINCESS by NORTHERN AFLEET)
10  COUNTTHEBRAVE         (correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of SHE'S MY FIRST by TO HONOR AND SERVE)
11  SUPER SMOOTH         (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 30.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of SUPER PHILLY by SMOOTH JAZZ)
12  FROSTY BLUE         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by FROSTED out of BLUE DAHLIA by BUCKHAR)
SCR  INVISIBLE         (orseno f)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of BET SHE WINS by FIRST SAMURAI)
SCR  D BIGALOW         (richard tobio)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by BAYERN out of CAGED MISTRESS by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
SCR  COMING IN HOT Jun22 May26       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ALLIANNA by FLAT OUT)
SCR  GOLDEN GOAL         (demeritte)BEALMEAR C 112 15.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of KAT ZIPPITY by CITY ZIP)
 
CD-6   09/25/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAGFLATION Aug02 Jul12 Jun12 May23 Apr18 (baker james)GRAHAM J 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HERE'S GRACIE         (sims p)BEJARANO R 121 15.00    
3  TAPWRIT WARRIOR Jul22 Jun27 May30 May02 Mar15 (vasquez )RODRIGUEZ A 121 30.00    
4  MISS ESCAPADE Aug19 Apr07 Feb25 Feb10 Jan01 (santamaria car)ORTIZ L 121 8.00 ★    
5  TEMPTING LADY Aug19 Apr13 Mar08 Feb09 Jan19 (tomlinson mi)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00 56% 0.80    
6  DREAMSCAPE Aug18 Jul20 Jun02 Mar16   (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
7  STREETS OF PARIS Aug19 Aug05 Jun26 Jun12   (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 10.00    
8  DESPO'S DREAM Aug18 Jul21 Jun19 May25 May03 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 16% 5.20    
9  ROMANTIC DANCER Jul27         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00    
10  THUNDERSTRIKE Jul21 Jul11 Jun23 Dec09   (puhich mike)GARCIA MARTIN 121 15.00    
11  CHARLINA Aug19 Apr27       (shorte)GUTIERREZ RAMOS 114 20.00    
12  SAKURA SKY Dec15 Nov02 Sep18 Aug28   (walden wi)TORRES A 121 5.00 ★    
SCR  STARCOURT Aug25 Jul05 Jun06 Apr27 Mar23 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00    
SCR  INVENTING ANNA Aug21 Jul21 Jun18 Dec03 Nov18 (medina ro)BEALMEAR C 117 6.00    
SCR  HAND IT OVER Jul28 May25 Apr25 Apr05 Mar06 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 8.00    
SCR  VIBE CHECK Aug25 Jul27 Jun16 May19   (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 121 6.00    
 
CD-7   09/25/2024 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAIR AND SQUARE Aug10 Jul15 Jun27 Jun07 May14 (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 126 10.00 14% 6.10    
2  WAR CAMPAIGN Jul06 Jun01 Apr20 Mar23 Dec16 (sims phili)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 2.50    
3  HOWLING TIME Aug29 Aug08 Jun28 May31 Mar02 (troiani n)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  MR. WIRELESS Aug11 Jul06 May04 Mar14 May05 (calhoun william)VAZQUEZ A 122 2.00 50% 1.00    
5  TRADEMARK Jul06 Jun01 May03 Jan27 Nov24 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 126 5.00    
6  FROSTED DEPARTURE Aug23 Jul28 Jun01 May05 Apr13 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 126 1.80    
 
CD-8   09/25/2024 3300ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JE SUIS RAPIDE Sep13 Aug13 Jul07 Jun13 Jun05 (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 30.00    
2  MT. MASADA Mar22 Feb18 Jan21 Jan01   (amoss m)ORTIZ L 118 12.00    
3  GIRLS WEEKEND Aug17 Jul20 May20 Jun16 May11 (beckman whitwor)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 8% 11.40    
4  BRUNCH PUNCH Jan26 Dec23 Nov25 Aug19   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
5  ALTER THE STARS Sep12 Aug14 Jul24 Jun28 Jun12 (suarez ja)BEALMEAR C 116 30.00    
6  ZEN MOMENT Jun26 May25 Apr20 Mar28   (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 5.00    
7  BLUE SQUALL Jul29 Jun22 Apr20 Mar16 Feb17 (morse rand)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 31% 2.20    
8  LA LA ROSE Aug10 Jul13 Jun19 May11 Jan06 (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
9  DOT Aug03 Jun01 Apr14 Mar24 Feb08 (blair jor)TORRES A 118 5.00    
10  PATE May03 Mar09 Feb10 Dec30 Apr01 (lovell mich)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
11  WAILUA Jul19 Jun08 Feb08     (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 33% 2.00    
 
CD-9   09/25/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ATLANTIC DANCER Aug26 Aug04 Oct27 Oct08 Aug24 (cook b)BEJARANO R 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  CURLIN GUNNER Aug12 Jul05 Jun08 May02 Mar23 (medina ro)TORRES A 118 15.00    
SCR  MO WINNING Sep14 May25 May03 Jan28 Jan01 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
4  PANCAKE HOUSE Aug18 Jul15 Jun06 May11 Apr06 (blair jordan)CHUAN MARTIN 122 15.00 16% 5.40    
5  ROCKSTAR RED Sep15 Jul29 Jul06 Jun22 Jun01 (johnston la)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 20.00    
SCR  THE THUNDERER Aug18 Jul14 May26 Apr17 Mar15 (morse rand)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 4.00    
7  CURLIN'S GESTURE Aug17 Jul21 May11 Jul02   (scherer marian)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.00 47% 1.10    
8  COPPER ECHO Aug18 Jul28 Jun29 Jun09 Apr28 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
9  PARKWAY Sep14 Aug07 Jul11 Jun30 May19 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  FLAT ON Aug17 Jun23 May26 Sep04 Jul08 (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50    
11  PURSUIT OF POWER Aug17 Jul18 Jun12 May11 Feb25 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 10.00 11% 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.