Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Friday - October 06, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (3/2/1)-(7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1)-(7/3)-(2/1/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-2   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 (7/3)-(2/1/3)-(3/7/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-3   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/1/3)-(3/7/2)-(5/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-4   WIN (3/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/2)-(3/7/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/7/2)-(3/7/2/6)-(3/7/2/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2)-(5/3)-(4/5/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-5   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 (5/3)-(4/5/6)-(1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-6   WIN (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/6)-(4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6)-(1/5)-(1/3/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-7   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (1/5)-(1/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TDN-8   WIN (1/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/6)-(1/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/6)-(1/3/6)-(1/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   10/06/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RONNI'S WIND Sep14 Aug31 Nov12 Oct29 Oct06 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 117 6.00 19% 4.20    
2  BETTER HALF Sep22 Aug26 Jul22 Jun30 Jun07 (hamm timothy)CEDILLO MAURO 110 10.00 22% 3.50    
3  WHYNAUGHTY Aug10 Jun24 May24 May04   (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 117 3.00 26% 2.80    
4  GO GIRL Sep14 Aug24 Jun30 Jun22 May31 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 115 4.00    
SCR  CHILLVILLE Sep26 Aug24 Aug10 Jul27 Jun01 (lopez j)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 15.00    
SCR  MERE BAG OF SHELLS Aug31 Aug09 Jul25 Jul05 Jun20 (radosevich jake )AVILES YAN 117 6.00    
7  IN TROUBLED WATERS Sep14 Aug24 Aug10 Aug02 Jun27 (faulkn)BATISTA ALBERTO 115 3.50    
8  KISS VALENTINA Sep14 Aug24 Aug10 Jul27 Jul03 (castro raquel)BRACHO A 115 5.00    
 
TDN-2   10/06/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS MARY JEAN Sep21 Aug31 Jun10 May31 May11 (castillo jabd)CEDILLO MAURO 110 3.50    
2  HAUGHTY PRAISE Sep21 Aug30 Aug09 Jul25 Jul13 (tumblin andrew)DIAZ R 121 15.00    
3  THE KID'S PRAYER Sep21 Aug31 Aug03 Jul19 Jul05 (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 115 4.50 13% 6.80    
4  C MORE PRIDE Sep21 Aug29 Aug09 Jul05 Jun01 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 117 3.00    
SCR  FRIENDLY MERGER Aug22 Jul18 Jun14     (syed riaz)VELEZ J 119 20.00    
SCR  MANDOLIN BREEZE Sep21 Aug23 Aug01 Jul19 Jul05 (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 115 2.00    
7  TITEBLUEJEANS Aug31 Aug01 Jul03 Jun14 May31 (rone mike)RIVERA R 119 5.00 38% 1.60    
 
TDN-3   10/06/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 MUDDY Optional Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($25.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TALE OF THE LYON Sep06 Aug14 Jul26 Jul08 Jun05 (po)SALAZAR FERNANDO 121 3.50 12% 7.00    
2  CAT'S RHYTHM Aug21 Jul17 Jun15 Jun01 May10 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 119 1.80 49% 1.10    
3  LADY ABRIL Sep26 Sep06 Aug10 Jul04 Jun12 (yoder d)CEDILLO MAURO 114 6.00 9% 9.90    
4  JETTIN PEGASUS Sep26 Sep13 Aug21 Aug01 Jul13 (suarez javie)HALDAR J 119 6.00    
5  APPEALING SENORITA Sep26 Sep18 Sep06 Aug21 Aug10 (gonzalez donaciano)PAUCAR E 121 2.50    
6  CATABOUT Sep11 Aug17 Jul13 Jun26 Jun06 (faulkn)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 8.00    
 
TDN-4   10/06/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POT COMMITTED Sep06 Aug07 Jul10 Jun19 Dec21 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 121 3.00    
2  TIMESATAPPIN Aug24 Aug06 Jul24 Jul05 Jun24 (loudin-smith)GONZALEZ KEVIN 115 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  PERMAFROST Sep25 Sep06 Aug21 Jul26 Jul05 (puhl kim)GONZALEZ A 115 2.00 42% 1.40    
4  FARMHAND Sep19 Jun19 May17 Jan30 Nov14 (patton luke)CEDILLO MAURO 114 15.00    
5  GOING IN STYLE Sep26 Sep18 Aug20 Aug04 Jul15 (bailey ric)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 115 15.00    
6  DECEITFUL Sep18 Aug24 Jul19 Mar22 Feb12 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 115 4.00 ★    
7  QUARANTINO Sep25 Sep06 Aug21 Jul05 Jun24 (skerrett jef)HALDAR J 115 6.00 35% 1.90    
8  FOGGY ALBION Sep25 Sep04 Aug28 Aug13 Aug02 (tumblin andrew)PAUCAR E 121 8.00    
 
TDN-5   10/06/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($29.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IT'S OFFICIAL Sep18 Jul22 Jul10 Jun27 May03 (juarez lorenz)BRACHO A 119 8.00    
2  MON CAMO Sep18 Aug30 Jul26 Jun19 May17 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 119 4.00    
3  AUGER Sep18 Sep07 Jul31 Jul12 Jun24 (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 5.00 12% 7.50    
SCR  RHYTHMIC RULER Sep13 Aug26 Aug04 Jul12 Feb22 (west m)AVILES YAN 123 1.80    
5  UOTTALIKEIT Sep18 Aug07 Jun20 May23 Apr04 (ibarra marco)BARBARAN ERIK 119 2.00 54% 0.90    
6  VENETIAN DREAM Sep27 Sep18 Sep05 Aug23 Aug14 (bailey ricardo)BOWEN ROCCO 121 10.00    
 
TDN-6   10/06/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HENRY THE CAT Jul31 Jul11 May08 Mar23 Feb22 (meyers shane)RIVERA R 119 5.00    
2  MASTER OF WAR Sep18 Aug28 Aug03 Jul24 Jun24 (sondej amy)TOLEDO S 119 2.50    
3  K KID Aug23 Jul31 Jul06 Jun24 Jun02 (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 115 8.00    
4  LEMON DROP SHOT Sep18 Aug20 Jun25 May29 May03 (puhl kim)BOWEN ROCCO 121 3.50 38% 1.70    
5  GONE IN A FLASH Sep20 Aug24 Aug09 Jun19 Jun01 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 123 2.00 24% 3.20    
6  DISTORTED LIMITS Sep18 Aug28 Jul18 Jul05 Jun13 (galloway khade)DIAZ I 119 6.00 12% 7.60    
 
TDN-7   10/06/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIME HEIST Sep15 Aug13 Jul26 Jul15 Jun21 (watkin)BATISTA ALBERTO 121 1.80 53% 0.90    
2  ALL FOOLS DAY Jul10 Jun20 Jun07 Apr28 Apr07 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 119 5.00    
3  VALIANT THOR Jul20 Jul11 Nov27 Nov07 Oct24 (cady khalil)HOUGHTON D 119 8.00    
4  DIAMONDS ENJOY Sep12 Aug17 Jul20 Jun24 May29 (galloway khadee)BOWEN ROCCO 119 3.50    
5  UHAVETOBEKITTENME Sep27 Sep14 Aug17 Aug01 Jun10 (casalinova tin)GONZALEZ A 119 2.00 18% 4.60    
SCR  HEY SACH Sep27 Jun21 May20 May09 Apr11 (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 12.00    
 
TDN-8   10/06/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIMPLY VALID Sep13 Aug15 Jul14 Jun23 Jun09 (atala jose)DIAZ I 121 2.00 46% 1.20    
2  SUSIE'S KID Sep13 Aug23 Aug03 Jul13 Jun24 (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 119 2.50    
3  BLAME IT ON EDDIE Sep26 Aug07 Jul23 Jul10 Jun01 (vecchio car)SEVERINO VICTOR 123 5.00 28% 2.60    
4  RAISE THE PURSES Sep25 Sep13 Aug12 Jul12 Jun10 (mo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 121 3.50    
5  ZAKARIA Sep04 Aug09 Jul13 May06 Apr26 (yoder d)CEDILLO MAURO 116 4.50    
6  THE DRAKE Aug22 Jul31 Jul06 Jun15 May24 (flores christian)AVILES YAN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.