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Ellis Park
Friday - August 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (6/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/4)-(6/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/4)-(6/2/4)-(6/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/4)-(2/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/2/4)-(2/3/6)-(5/8/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ELP-2   WIN (2/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/6)-(2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/6)-(5/8/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/3/6)-(5/8/2)-(1/6/5/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-3   WIN (5/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/2)-(5/8/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/8/2)-(5/8/2/6)-(5/8/2/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/8/2)-(1/6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/8/2)-(1/6/5/7)-(2/8/13/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-4   WIN (1/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7)-(1/6/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/5/7)-(2/8/13/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5/7)-(2/8/13/9)-(4/1/3/10) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ELP-5   WIN (2/8/13/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/13/9)-(2/8/13/11/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/8/13/9)-(2/8/13/11/9)-(2/8/13/11/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/8/13/9)-(4/1/3/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/8/13/9)-(4/1/3/10)-(7/1/5) 48 $1.00 $144 
ELP-6   WIN (4/1/3/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/3/10)-(4/1/3/6/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/1/3/10)-(4/1/3/6/10)-(4/1/3/6/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/1/3/10)-(7/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3/10)-(7/1/5)-(3/5/11/10/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-7   WIN (7/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/5)-(7/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1/5)-(7/1/5)-(7/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/1/5)-(3/5/11/10/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/1/5)-(3/5/11/10/7)-(7/4/9/12) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-8   WIN (3/5/11/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/11/10/7)-(3/5/11/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/11/10/7)-(3/5/11/10/7)-(3/5/11/10/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/5/11/10/7)-(7/4/9/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (7/4/9/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/9/12)-(7/4/9/11/12) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/4/9/12)-(7/4/9/11/12)-(7/4/9/11/12) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards

IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  COLONEL BARTON Aug04 Apr29 Apr16 Mar12 Mar03 (puhich mike)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 6.00    
2  BACK TO REALITY         (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00 18% 4.70    
3  AUTO DIAL Jul31 Jul12 Jun25     (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 12.00    
4  I NINETY FIVE Aug04 Jul09 Jun15 Oct05 Sep11 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
5  ROYAL AIR FORCE Jun17 May29 May05 Apr08 Apr02 (hancock a)LANERIE J 124 10.00    
6  RUNGIUS Dec10 Nov13 Sep15 Aug05 Jun26 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 0.80 57% 0.80    
7  VALUABLE CARGO Aug06 Jul09 Jun22 Apr27 Jan06 (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00    
 
ELP-2   08/18/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  UNCLE BERLEY Jul31 Jul08 Jun02 May05 Mar19 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 2.00    
2  ETERNALLY GRATEFUL Jul14 May06 Apr08 Mar09 Feb12 (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.00 53% 0.90    
3  LEND IT TEWMEY Jul14 May04 Jul01 Jun11 May13 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 4.50 14% 6.20    
4  SWAGGISH Jun22 Mar12 Feb18 Dec31   (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 2.50    
5  NOTION Jul21 Feb17 Dec26 Nov24 Oct09 (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00    
6  MISTER SHARPIE Jul08 Jun25 May18 Mar09 Feb10 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 113 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-3   08/18/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LUKE         (hartman chris)CANNON DECLAN 119 8.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of WELL HEELED LADY by BROAD BRUSH)
2  SUCCESSION GOLD         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of PURA CLASSE by GRAND SLAM)
3  GIBRAN         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of I'VE GOT GRACE by SMOKE GLACKEN)
SCR  MARCUS GIFT Jul27         (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of FOUR GIFTS by EVEN THE SCORE)
5  BLACK DIAMOND Jul21         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 3.50 40% 1.50    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SNOW FALL by WAR FRONT)
6  NOBLE GENTLEMAN Jul14 Jun10 May11     (demeritte lar)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 ★    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of LOUVE ROYALE by PEINTRE CELEBRE)
7  COMPANY YOU KEEP Jul14         (maker mi)RODRIGUEZ A 114 10.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of WONDER STONE by SUPER SAVER)
8  MOZLZIL         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 36% 1.80    
  (by UNCLE MO out of SOUTHERN STRIKE by SMART STRIKE)
9  SPOONIE         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of SWEETTRICKYDANCER by GREEN DANCER)
 
ELP-4   08/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AIN'T BROKE Jul22 Jun25 Jun02 Apr27 Mar15 (calhoun w)TORRES A 123 3.50 29% 2.40    
2  ACTIVE LANE May22 Apr07       (medina robe)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
3  NOMADIC PRIDE Jun29 May29 Mar25 Feb24 Dec01 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
4  FINE COTTON Jul14 May25 May04 Mar11 Jan16 (pessin l)GRAHAM J 123 6.00    
5  RAINDROPS ON ROSES Jul08 Jun09 May21 Apr27 Mar30 (huffman pat)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 3.00 23% 3.40    
6  TINY TEMPER Oct30 Sep17       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.00 27% 2.80    
7  SHOPLIFTER Jun29 May29 Apr16 Feb25 Nov04 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-5   08/18/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ESPERE Jul01         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of MISSOURIA by BELLAMY ROAD)
2  MATURITY DATE         (brown c)BEJARANO R 119 2.50 34% 2.00    
  (by UPSTART out of SING LADY SING by SCAT DADDY)
3  TONALITE         (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by TONALIST out of LEGAL LIMIT by INTO MISCHIEF)
4  ENTICING SUNSET Jul16         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
  (by ENTICED out of KENCHO by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
5  PANTHERA Jul23         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of GORGELICIOUS by MORE THAN READY)
6  ADELLEGATOR         (davis christo)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of SILVER FERN by BERNARDINI)
SCR  NOSHUGFORPOP Jul16 May27       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ENCHANTED EMMA by BODEMEISTER)
8  FANCY LOOKER Jul16         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 27% 2.70    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of BRANDYS SECRET by SECRET ROMEO)
9  CHAMPAGNE SURPRISE         (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of UNBRIDLED SURPRISE by STREET SENSE)
10  WINSOME BEAUTY Jul16         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 4.50    
  (by UPSTART out of MAZEL TOV by MAZEL TRICK)
11  SISTINA CHAPEL         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 ★    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of ADDAE DO JAGUARETE by CRIMSON TIDE)
12  BLAME THE GELATO Jul22         (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
  (by BLAME out of BIANCO TARTUFO by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
13  BELLA CRUELLA Aug01         (williamson bri)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00 16% 5.40    
  (by ASTERN out of OH SO BELLA by AFLEET ALEX)
SCR  YOU'RE KITTEN ME Jul23 Jun29 Jun15 May11   (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of DUPLICATE KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  OLD FASHIONED GIRL Jul27 Jul11       (mcentee paul)HEARD TYLER 119 15.00    
  (by KLIMT out of CREATIVE DESIGN by STRAVINSKY)
SCR  ABOVE THE SUN Jul22         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of MAKIN' SENSE by STREET SENSE)
 
ELP-6   08/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHARLOTTESAPPROVAL         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 3.00 21% 3.80    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CURLIN'S APPROVAL by CURLIN)
2  COLLIER         (ortiz al)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by MINESHAFT out of JUNGLE LANE by TALE OF THE CAT)
3  SIMPLY STRIKING Jul22         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00 20% 4.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SPEIGHTSY HEART by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  COURBE         (pletcher a)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 36% 1.80    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of YSTERIC by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  PURSUIT OF LIBERTY         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of MEDIA MADNESS by EMPIRE MAKER)
6  FLOORED         (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.00 ★    
  (by CURLIN out of BAFFLED by DISTORTED HUMOR)
7  THE BIG BANSHEE         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by THE BIG BEAST out of MARION THEATRE by MONTBROOK)
8  TAKETHESILVER         (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of SILVER LA BELLE by LANGFUHR)
9  REMEMBERING         (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of MEMORIES PREVAIL by CREATIVE CAUSE)
10  SESSA SISU         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of SESSA by CONSOLIDATOR)
11  CONTROLLED TEMPER         (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of MOON MEETING TOO by MALIBU MOON)
 
ELP-7   08/18/2023 6600ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IDRATHERBEBLESSED Jul23 Jun29 Jun11 May28 Apr26 (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 3.00 25% 3.00    
2  JEDREK Jul19 Jun02 Apr30 Mar31 Mar03 (lauer michael)GRAHAM J 122 15.00    
3  ROJA REDEMPTION Jun17 Apr21 Mar25 Feb10   (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
SCR  EL AHIJADO Jun29 May20 Apr19 Mar30 Mar04 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 115 50.00    
5  QUADRA ISLAND Mar25 Jan28 Jan01 Dec02   (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50 15% 5.80    
SCR  SOLID COUNTRY GOLD Jul16 Jun25 Jun01 Apr12 Mar02 (catalano )TORRES A 122 2.00    
7  KING CURLIN Jul16 May28 Apr27 Mar25 Dec31 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 2.50 29% 2.50    
 
ELP-8   08/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SAUCY SECRET Jul21 Jun17 May20     (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TIZ MIZ SUE by TIZNOW)
SCR  UNCORKED (AUS) Aug12 Jul16 Jul01 Jun17 May28 (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 15.00    
  (by PIERRO out of PIAF by PROUD BIRDIE)
3  PUMPKIN SCONE Jul01 May28       (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 1.40 37% 1.70    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of EMBELLISH THE LACE by SUPER SAVER)
4  SPREZZATURA         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of SMILE BIG by BIG DRAMA)
5  SPELTERINI Apr15 Mar17 Feb17 Jan07 Nov05 (mott i)LANERIE J 119 4.00 19% 4.20    
  (by BERNARDINI out of KEEPSHERCOOL by SMART STRIKE)
6  EVERGRANDE Jul21 Jan21       (asmussen )TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of NIKKI'S CHOICE by FORESTRY)
7  SUGAR BOO Jul01 Mar16 Feb03     (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of MISS MOON by HOMEBUILDER)
8  GATHER (ARG)         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of ONE TOO MANY by NUMEROUS)
9  AWATEA         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of AURORE by ARCH)
10  WILD ACCLAIM Jan18 Dec21       (hamilton sarah)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 10% 9.30    
  (by FLATTER out of PRODICIOUS FACTS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
11  FAST N HAPPY May28 Apr27 Mar25 Feb15   (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 11% 8.10    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ONE FAST FROG by FIRST SAMURAI)
12  STAGFLATION         (baker james)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of REAL POINT by POINT OF ENTRY)
SCR  BABY GOT BACKSPIN Jun25 Nov23 Oct28 Sep25 Aug13 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of SHOWTIME SIS by EUROEARS)
 
ELP-9   08/18/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT CHANNEL Jul07 Jun22 May17 Apr01   (meah m)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 12.00    
2  HOME RUN HANK Jul12 Jun24 Apr08     (williamson bri)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
3  NORBERT Jul30 Jun18       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
4  SPUNS SON Jul31 Jul07 May29 Apr29 Dec29 (hill f)CANNON DECLAN 124 6.00 7% 12.90    
5  LEFT POCKET MONEY Jul31 Jul16 May21 Sep24   (pittman bonn)CALLEJA ANDRES 114 30.00    
6  LOLAS BEAU Jul21 Jun21 Jun01 Apr01 Feb25 (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 117 30.00    
7  ABSOLUTE COURAGE Jul09 Jun23 May26 May14 Jan27 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 2.00 68% 0.50    
8  MAGICAL THINKING Jul30         (desormeaux ke)HEARD TYLER 118 8.00    
9  HEZMORETHANREADY Jul30 Jul07 May30 May15 Aug26 (house gary)GILLIGAN JACK 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  SAPELO SOUND Jul21 Sep07       (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 124 6.00    
11  PROSECUTION Jul14 Nov15 Sep16     (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 4.50 ★    
12  NEAP TIDE Jun09 May25       (lobo paul)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TEXCOCO Jul31 Jun23 Feb24 Feb10 Jan21 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 113 15.00    
SCR  HIJACK THE PARTY         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
SCR  DRAMA CRITIC Jul31 Jun21 May30 May09 Mar15 (asmussen st)STILLION BROOKE 118 3.50    
SCR  BOOSTER SHOT Jul07 Jun16 May30 Apr29 Mar09 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.