Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - July 31, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (5/2/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/6/3)-(5/2/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/6/3)-(5/2/6/3)-(5/2/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/6/3)-(3/4/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6/3)-(3/4/6/5)-(1/4/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/4/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/6/5)-(3/4/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/6/5)-(3/4/6/5)-(3/4/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/4/6/5)-(1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/4/6/5)-(1/4/6)-(1/6/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-3   WIN (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/6)-(1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/6)-(1/6/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6)-(1/6/5)-(4/8/3/6/7) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-4   WIN (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/5)-(1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/6/5)-(4/8/3/6/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5)-(4/8/3/6/7)-(5/6/2/10/11) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-5   WIN (4/8/3/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/3/6/7)-(4/8/3/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/3/6/7)-(4/8/3/6/7)-(4/8/3/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/8/3/6/7)-(5/6/2/10/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/8/3/6/7)-(5/6/2/10/11)-(2/7/11/8/9) 125 $1.00 $375 
ELP-6   WIN (5/6/2/10/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/6/2/10/11)-(5/6/2/10/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/6/2/10/11)-(5/6/2/10/11)-(5/6/2/10/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/6/2/10/11)-(2/7/11/8/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2/10/11)-(2/7/11/8/9)-(1/4/7/5/2) 125 $1.00 $125 
ELP-7   WIN (2/7/11/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/7/11/8/9)-(2/7/11/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/7/11/8/9)-(2/7/11/8/9)-(2/7/11/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/7/11/8/9)-(1/4/7/5/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/7/11/8/9)-(1/4/7/5/2)-(4/10/5/12/1) 125 $1.00 $125 
ELP-8   WIN (1/4/7/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/7/5/2)-(1/4/7/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/7/5/2)-(1/4/7/5/2)-(1/4/7/5/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/4/7/5/2)-(4/10/5/12/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
ELP-9   WIN (4/10/5/12/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/10/5/12/1)-(4/10/5/12/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/10/5/12/1)-(4/10/5/12/1)-(4/10/5/12/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/31/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOULFUL TARA May26         (miller f)COURT K 119 8.00    
2  INSIGHTFUL MISS         (williamson brian)EMIGH A 119 4.50 25% 3.00    
3  AUNT JO         (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 6% 15.20    
4  ZIGGZAPPA Mar24 Mar05 Feb11     (forster t)LANERIE J 124 6.00    
5  THE PRINCESS SAYS Jun02 May14 Apr12 Mar16 Mar01 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 1.80 25% 2.90    
6  ROYAL BLOOD Jul09 Jun02 May14 Apr23 Apr07 (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 3.00 23% 3.40    
7  I GOTTA BOLT Jul08 Jun15 Oct05 Sep28 Sep02 (hancock jo)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
 
ELP-2   07/31/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TEN COUNT Jun29 Sep30       (vanden britt)EMIGH A 120 1.20    
2  PAID IN FULL Jul07 Jun15 May25 May12 Mar25 (hartlage g)MICHEL MICKAELLE 123 3.50    
3  PUNCTUALITY Jul16 Jun25 May07 Apr13   (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.50 37% 1.70    
4  MAGNA RULER Jul11 May25 May12 Mar19 Mar05 (ramo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 6.00 32% 2.20    
5  GET THROUGH Jun02 May05 Mar25 Mar19 Feb12 (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  ATTEST Jun30 Jun09 Mar23     (knippenberg b)MORALES EDGAR 125 15.00 5% 17.90    
7  RONITHELIMODRIVER Jul07 May25 Apr29 Mar10 Feb17 (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 20.00    
8  BORN FLAWLESS Jun25 May29 May12 Apr12 Feb20 (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
 
ELP-3   07/31/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOLT ABOVE Jun06 Apr28 Apr07 Jan06 Oct27 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 1.80 35% 1.90    
2  UNCLE BERLEY Jul08 Jun02 May05 Mar19 Feb26 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 4.50    
3  CHARLIE WHISKEY Jul09 Jun17 May21 Apr29 Apr08 (stinson wi)CORRALES GERARDO 120 5.00    
4  CAMP DADDY Jun25 May27 May21 May04 Dec02 (gutierrez)TORRES A 122 2.50 27% 2.70    
5  GETTIN PAID Jul07 May08 Mar09 Jan19 Nov17 (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
6  SWIMMINGWITHSHARKS Jul15 Jun04 Feb03 Jan13 Nov20 (cano munoz)LANERIE J 122 8.00 15% 5.70    
SCR  AMERICAN ICON May28 May21 May13 May03 Apr21 (vasquez s)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
 
ELP-4   07/31/2023 5280ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($15K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SET THE PACE Jun25 May28 Apr02 Jan16 May28 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 4.50 34% 1.90    
SCR  XYLOPHONE May11 Apr30 Mar31 Mar10 Feb11 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 2.50    
3  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI Jun23 May26 May11 Apr12 Mar02 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 123 6.00    
4  JERSEY GOLD Jul08 Jun18 May30 May14 Apr19 (nesbitt a)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 123 20.00    
5  HASHTAG WINNER Jun23 May27 Apr22 Apr13 Mar25 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 123 4.00 10% 9.40    
6  PRIDDIS Jun25 Jun03 Apr21 Apr02 Jan21 (diodoro r)TORRES A 123 3.50 33% 2.10    
SCR  SHE'S GONE D'WILD Jun23 Jun06 May02 Apr22 Mar15 (barkley jason)MACHADO LUAN 123 10.00    
SCR  CHOCTAW BINGO Jun06 May06 Apr12 Sep12 Aug16 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 123 12.00    
 
ELP-5   07/31/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEPICTION         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of TRENSITA by CURLIN)
2  ONE RED CENT Jul15         (jazdzews)RODRIGUEZ A 114 30.00    
  (by DOMINUS out of UNEVEN by EVEN THE SCORE)
3  CASPER         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 8% 11.90    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of AMERICA'S FRIEND by UNUSUAL HEAT)
4  MUGATU Jul14 Jun24       (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00 43% 1.30    
  (by BLOFELD out of UNION WAY by UNION RAGS)
5  MIGHTY KAI         (maker michael )CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of MY HAPPY PLACE by TAPIT)
6  BLUE EYED GEORGE         (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of ACTING NAUGHTY by OFFLEE WILD)
7  J T'S IMAGINATION         (sharp joe)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AFLEET ALEX out of ASHLEE AT LAW by LION HEART)
8  PURE POETRY         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 28% 2.50    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of DICKINSON by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  VIVA VOCE Jul14         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of HAVEANICEWEEKEND by ADIOS CHARLIE)
10  BRIE'S MISSION         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of BRIE'S LUCKY CHARM by MASTERCRAFTSMAN (IRE))
SCR  COASTAL BRINK Jun18 Jun08       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of BRINKLEY by BELONG TO ME)
SCR  FIRST OF HIS NAME         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 8.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of SUPER ALLISON by SUPER SAVER)
 
ELP-6   07/31/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI Jul07 Jun16 May26 May11 Apr19 (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 15.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
2  MISS ESCAPADE         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 7% 13.40    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of MISS LARKSPUR by MORE THAN READY)
3  LITTLE MISS PRISS         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 6.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of MISSISSIPPI QUEEN by DIXIELAND BAND)
4  AURACULOUS         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of BONITA BAY by BERNARDINI)
5  CONDON CANDY         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 4.00 26% 2.80    
  (by UNIFIED out of SWEETNESS 'N LIGHT by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  MUSICAL DIVA         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 25% 3.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ULTIMATE SHOPPER by YES IT'S TRUE)
SCR  SWEET GUITAR         (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
  (by STAR GUITAR out of SWEET CITIZEN by PROUD CITIZEN)
8  SWEET VIOLET         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of PRIVATE SUITE by PRIVATE TERMS)
9  OUR KEEPSAKE         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of BECCAWHIT by ROMAN RULER)
10  REGAL RUMOR         (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of BACK OFF by PUT IT BACK)
11  PEIGNOIR         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BEEHIVE HAIRDO by FLAT OUT)
12  LEGACY DEFINED         (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of TIZ MIZ SUE by TIZNOW)
 
ELP-7   07/31/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FROTHY Jun24         (devaux cherie)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of ROOMS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  LEMON BOMB Jun24 Oct30 Oct08     (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 118 2.50 43% 1.30    
  (by ARMY MULE out of BITTER LEMON by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  CHURCH SERVICE Jun23 May18 Mar26 Mar03 Jan14 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 25.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of ROBI JO by LEMON DROP KID)
4  OKAY FINE May13 Apr19 Feb12 Jan05 Nov26 (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  CALLAS Jun25         (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of CHORAL SYMPHONY by A.P. INDY)
6  BE MISS HATTIE         (davis chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 25.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
7  BOLTORO Jun23 Apr23 Mar18 Feb09 Dec14 (casse mar)TORRES A 118 6.00 17% 4.90    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of ELANDESS by SCAT DADDY)
8  CATMINT         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ANTONOE by FIRST DEFENCE)
9  ENGLISH CHARM Jun23 Nov16       (wilkes r)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of LINDA by SCAT DADDY)
10  MO BLOOMS Jul01         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of CAT'S GARDEN by TALE OF THE CAT)
11  JUNGLE CAT Feb11         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 124 12.00 12% 7.10    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of SUTIL by REDATTORE (BRZ))
12  MILIEU Apr27 Mar16 Jan29 Dec11 Oct22 (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 5.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of SLEW'S QUALITY by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SCR  PELICAN LANE Jun25 May20 Jan07     (foley greg)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
  (by BLAME out of SEA ROAD by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  MIDVALE Oct02 Aug07       (walsh bre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of CROWNSTONE by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  THEROANRUNNER Jul01 Nov26 Oct16     (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of NOELLE'S MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  RETROSPECT Jun24         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of AFTER THOUGHT by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
 
ELP-8   07/31/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMPERADOR Jun29 Jun04 Jan06 Oct14 Jan22 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 122 12.00 24% 3.20    
2  LUPO'S LEGACY Jul07 Jun10 Jun01 May13 Apr13 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00 6% 15.50    
3  RIDER'S SPECIAL Jun29 Jun10 May21 Apr29 Apr01 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50    
4  STAND FOR FREEDOM Jun10 Apr21 Mar04 Jan25 Dec28 (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 115 8.00 21% 3.80    
5  BACKSIDE BUZZ May06 Mar23 Feb24 Feb03 Jan15 (vance tho)TORRES A 118 3.00 8% 11.70    
6  ELI'S PROMISE Jun25 May28 Apr20 Feb24 Jan20 (divito jam)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00    
7  SUPREMELY Jun29 Jun10 May19 Apr21 Mar22 (foley greg)LANERIE J 122 5.00 14% 6.10    
8  MISSIN CURFEW Jun29 Apr28 Apr07 Mar12 Jan15 (diodoro robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00    
9  MIDASWELLRUN Jun29 Jun10 May19 Nov19 Oct19 (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 122 8.00    
 
ELP-9   07/31/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POST TENEBRAS LUX Jul07 Mar10       (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  TEXCOCO Jun23 Feb24 Feb10 Jan21 Aug13 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00    
3  SPUNS SON Jul07 May29 Apr29 Dec29 Nov30 (hill f)BEJARANO R 124 6.00    
4  SIMPLY JACK Jun07 May15 Oct05 Jul11 Jun05 (murphy conor)GRAHAM J 124 2.50 65% 0.50    
5  BROWN LIQUOR MAN Jun30         (shirer matt)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00 6% 14.60    
6  LEFT POCKET MONEY Jul16 May21 Sep24     (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
7  DRAMA CRITIC Jun21 May30 May09 Mar15 Feb24 (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 111 5.00    
8  SANT' ANTIMO Jun29         (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 25.00    
9  AUTO DIAL Jul12 Jun25       (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 12.00    
10  BON BUENO Jul07 May25 Apr14 Mar26 May28 (short thomas)MORALES EDGAR 124 10.00 7% 12.60    
11  ROYAL DECADENCE Jul09 Jun21 May25 May06 Jan28 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
12  SECRET EDGE Jul16 Jun10 Apr29 Aug27 Aug12 (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  FIGHTERTOWN Jun15 May21 Feb26 Jan21 Dec24 (amoss thomas )GILLIGAN JACK 118 3.50    
SCR  NEAP TIDE Jun09 May25       (lobo pau)RODRIGUEZ A 113 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.