Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - January 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (7/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/3)-(7/1/3/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/3)-(7/1/3/6/4)-(7/1/3/6/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/1/3)-(4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/1/3)-(4/3)-(8/4/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-2   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3)-(4/3/5/2)-(4/3/5/2) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (4/3)-(8/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(8/4/3)-(2/7/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-3   WIN (8/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/4/3)-(8/4/3/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/3)-(8/4/3/1/5)-(8/4/3/1/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/4/3)-(2/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/4/3)-(2/7/1)-(4/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-4   WIN (2/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/1)-(2/7/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/7/1)-(2/7/1/4)-(2/7/1/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/7/1)-(4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/7/1)-(4/1)-(2/8/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-5   WIN (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/1)-(4/1/8) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/1)-(4/1/8)-(4/1/8) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/1)-(2/8/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1)-(2/8/4)-(2/6/8/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-6   WIN (2/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/8/4)-(2/8/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/8/4)-(2/8/4/6)-(2/8/4/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/8/4)-(2/6/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/8/4)-(2/6/8/1)-(6/3/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-7   WIN (2/6/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/8/1)-(2/6/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/8/1)-(2/6/8/1)-(2/6/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/8/1)-(6/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-8   WIN (6/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/4)-(6/3/4/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/4)-(6/3/4/5/8)-(6/3/4/5/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3 F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWO REDHEADS Dec09 Nov05       (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.00 19% 4.30    
  (by MUNNINGS out of TWO SUSANS by PURGE)
2  DREAM ON CARA Dec17 Nov20 Oct30 Aug18 Aug03 (friedman mitche)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of DREAMING OF CARA by NORTH LIGHT)
3  LAVON Dec16 Oct30 Sep02     (coffey m)DAVIS A 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PAYNTER out of LEGALLY BAY by READ THE FOOTNOTES)
4  THE SPLENDID ONE Dec16 Nov04 Sep22 Aug24 Jul15 (hennig mark)HARKIE K 120 10.00 ★    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of BLISSFULLY by COX'S RIDGE)
SCR  LA CONQUISTADORA Dec16 Oct30 Sep22     (breen ke)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of COURT DRESS by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  BERNING HONOR Oct08 Aug18 Jul27     (schettino domin)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50 ★    
  (by HONOR CODE out of BERNING ROSE by FREUD)
7  CAIRO SUGAR Dec30 Nov29 Nov08 Oct14   (bedard alan)WOLFSONT ANDREW 120 2.50 49% 1.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SPUN SUGAR by AWESOME AGAIN)
 
AQU-2   01/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($74K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  VALLARAND Jan06 Dec10 Nov13 Oct13 Jul15 (martin carlos )LEZCANO JOSE 118 8.00 13% 6.90    
2  CARAMOCHA Jan08 Dec15 Nov04 Oct09 Sep15 (friedman mitche)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00 ★    
3  BUSTIN BAY Dec29 Dec01 Oct23 Sep24 Sep02 (arriaga antonio)DAVIS KATIE 120 4.00 25% 3.00    
4  KNOW IT ALL AUDREY Dec17 Nov04 Oct27 Oct09 Sep16 (barrera oscar)FRANCO MANUEL 120 0.60 29% 2.50    
5  MIA BEA STAR Dec30 Dec17 Dec04 Nov11 Nov04 (persaud )GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 3.50 ★    
 
AQU-3   01/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRAND AGAIN Dec17 Nov25 Nov10 Sep30   (shiv)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 30.00 ★    
2  GOLDEN PURCHASE Jan08 Dec29 Dec09 Nov18 Oct29 (jones ed)DAVIS A 122 20.00    
3  PROVEN HOPE Dec29 Oct20 Aug24 Jun26 May29 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 6.00 14% 6.10    
4  NORGAY Jan08 Dec09 Nov10 Oct26 Sep15 (jacobson david)DAVIS DYLAN 122 2.00 26% 2.90    
5  PAPI ON ICE Jan08 Dec17 Dec09 Nov25 Nov10 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 15.00 ★    
6  TIGER TOWN BOY Dec17 Nov11 Oct09     (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.50    
7  RED JET Dec11 Dec01 Nov13 Jun17 Jun02 (younghans wi)HOWELL TALBERT 122 50.00    
8  OLD POINT Nov13 Oct08       (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 122 1.80 37% 1.70    
 
AQU-4   01/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3 ALL PT- 2:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STEADY PROGRESS Jan13         (cha)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 10.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  SWAY'SINMYDNA Jan14         (chatte)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 10.00    
2  WINNING CONNECTION Dec17 Dec01 Oct28 Oct02   (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 120 2.00 36% 1.80    
3  DISTURBED Dec01 Nov06 Oct28     (ryer)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 15.00    
4  NIEUWENDYK Dec29 Dec01 Nov11 Aug31   (begg jame)VARGAS A 120 4.00 ★    
5  BEAR'S CORRECT Dec29 Dec10 Nov20 Oct07 Sep16 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 30.00    
6  PRACTICALLYMINE Dec01 Oct28       (kantarma)GONZALEZ SILVESTRE 120 15.00    
7  PLEASE BABY Dec01 Oct23 Oct02 Sep03 Jul23 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.80 21% 3.80    
SCR  SIXWILLBERICH Dec10 Nov06       (morley thomas)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00 ★    
 
AQU-5   01/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($25K) Purse ($46K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DADDY KNOWS Nov16 Oct24 Oct03 Sep03 Aug03 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 8.00 12% 7.60    
SCR  QUICKFLASH Jan12 Dec07 Sep22 Aug26 Jul30 (john)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 3.00 ★    
SCR  RUNNINGWSCISSORS Nov18 Oct27 Sep29 Aug23 Jul29 (jacobson david)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.50 44% 1.30    
4  MICROSECOND Apr16         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.50 20% 4.00    
SCR  GANDY DANCING Jan05 Dec02 Oct16 Aug26 Aug05 (barrera s)DAVIS DYLAN 123 6.00    
6  DOUBLE SHOT Jan05 Dec02 Nov17 Oct08 Aug31 (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 120 8.00    
7  BREAKING STONES Dec29 Nov26 Nov20 Oct18 Sep28 (barrera s)DAVIS KATIE 120 15.00    
8  MASKED MARAUDER Nov30 Oct23 Sep14 Jul30 Jul04 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 4.00 ★    
 
AQU-6   01/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRIKING SPEED Jan01 Oct07 Sep25 Sep16 Aug20 (jones eduardo)FUENTES ERICK 110 20.00    
2  MI TRES POR CIENTO (CHI) Oct17 Sep20 Aug19 Jun19 May29 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.50 39% 1.60    
3  CAERUS Jan01 Nov25 Nov08 Oct06 Aug27 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 10.00    
4  MOUNT TRAVERS Dec04 Nov12 Oct21 Sep25 Aug24 (kantarmaci mert)CANCEL ERIC 123 10.00 6% 15.10    
SCR  RAGTIME BLUES Dec04 Nov12 Oct21 Sep01 Aug05 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 123 1.60 20% 4.00    
6  F F ROCKET Dec08 Nov26 Nov05 Oct16 Sep25 (shi)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 6.00 ★    
7  MAGNIFICENT CHROME Aug14 Jul20 Jun19 May27 May12 (younghans wi)HARKIE K 120 15.00    
8  WINNING DRIVE Nov17 Nov10 Oct16 Aug17 Jun18 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 5.00 12% 7.40    
 
AQU-7   01/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 MUDDY Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOING TO THE LEAD Dec30 Dec18 Dec10 Nov25 Nov21 (cash norman)WOLFSONT ANDREW 118 8.00    
1A  GAGETOWN Jan07 Dec03 Oct16 Sep25 Aug17 (cash nor)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  DR ARDITO May15 Apr01 Feb24     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 2.50 27% 2.70    
3  NUCLEAR OPTION Jan10 Sep20 Sep02 Jul03 Jun19 (penaloza mig)HADDOCK DEXTER 118 12.00    
SCR  GULFSTREAM WAY Dec18 Nov25 Oct08 Sep17 Aug13 (cox h)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  AMERICAN GENTLEMAN Dec03 Nov05 Sep17 Aug06 May07 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 20.00    
6  NABOKOV Nov06 Sep17 Aug18 Jul02 May15 (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00 21% 3.80    
SCR  GLORY ROAD Jan01 May27 Apr30 Mar27 Mar05 (noda orlando)CANCEL ERIC 118 8.00    
8  SAINT TAPIT Nov27 Oct20 Sep24 Aug06 Jun26 (pletcher todd )LEZCANO JOSE 120 4.00 7% 12.50    
9  HERO TIGER Dec30 Dec03 Nov12 Oct17 Oct05 (kir)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 118 20.00    
 
AQU-8   01/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUACKENBUSH Jan01 Dec03       (hennig mark)LEZCANO JOSE 122 12.00    
  (by BEAUTYINTHEPULPIT out of ANY VALID SATURDAY by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
2  VALENTINO'S HERE Nov20 Oct21 Sep24 Sep02   (brow)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 8.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of NEVER MISS A TRICK by ANASHEED)
3  CENTRAL PRIDE Dec03 Nov11 Nov05 Oct07 Sep23 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 122 4.00 23% 3.30    
  (by LORD NELSON out of COREY'S HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
4  REFUAH Nov27 Oct20 Sep23 Jul03 May27 (walder p)GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 3.00 23% 3.40    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of SMITTEN CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
5  RED D G P Jan12 Apr23 Mar18     (ferrar)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 8.00 ★    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of SANDRA D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
6  CALLALOO Jan12 Dec15 Nov13     (donk davi)VARGAS A 122 2.00 30% 2.40    
  (by TRINNIBERG out of LEAPING LADY by MASS MEDIA)
7  LEM ME DRINK Nov26 Oct29 Sep30 Sep04 Aug11 (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 117 8.00    
  (by MISSION IMPAZIBLE out of FIGHTER WING by EMPIRE MAKER)
8  OLYMPIC DREAMS Jun30         (quick j)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00 ★    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of KIROV by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.