Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 03, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/03/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOMITIA LUCILLA Oct13 Sep16 Aug06 Jul04 Jun08 (cano jua)SANTANA JR 120 1.80 ★    
2  MONOCACY Oct20 Sep29 Sep16 Aug06 Jul17 (king l)RIQUELME J 118 8.00    
3  SWEET BEAUTY Oct08 Jul20 Jul03 Jun25 Jun09 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 4.00 ★    
4  SAINT EROS GIRL Sep03 Aug06 Jun26 May20   (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 28% 2.60    
5  MY TOMMY LEE Oct19 Sep23 Aug24 Jul21 Jun10 (sands shane)GARCIA MARTIN 120 15.00 17% 4.90    
6  BELIEVING (IRE) Sep16 Jul29 Jun17 Jun02 May26 (blair jor)LEPAROUX R 120 4.00 18% 4.50    
 
CD-2   11/03/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FUNKY MUSIC Oct11 Sep19 Sep07 Aug03 Jul13 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00 21% 3.80    
2  AMERICAN PURE Oct23 Oct01 Aug20 Jul15 May21 (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.50 ★    
3  ARTHURIAN Oct12 Sep15 Aug21 Aug03 Jul12 (caramori cai)LOPEZ PASCACIO 120 4.00    
4  SPEED BOAT Oct06 Sep16 Aug31 Aug11 Jul20 (hugo l)COURT K 120 10.00 18% 4.70    
5  NINETIES COUNTRY Oct19 Sep07 Jul23 Jul03 May19 (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 ★    
6  HOMETOWN HERO Oct07 Sep10 Aug19 Jul03 Jun08 (wong jonatha)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 1.60 23% 3.30    
 
CD-3   11/03/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LET ME LOVE YOU Sep28 Sep05 Aug10     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.00 42% 1.40    
2  WINTERS LION Sep21         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 6% 15.70    
3  EIGHT STRAIGHT Sep21         (mcpeek kenneth )ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00    
4  GIROOVIN Oct09 Sep23       (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 19% 4.40    
5  BOOSTER SHOT         (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
6  ATKINS Oct02         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 ★    
7  FREEZING POINT Oct13 Sep23       (lejzerowicz joe)LANERIE J 119 6.00 10% 8.60    
8  WICKED SECRET Sep28 Aug31       (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.00    
 
CD-4   11/03/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CUPIDS PAYDAY Oct01         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 5.00 34% 2.00    
2  HIGH FASHION LADY Oct01 Sep03 Aug03 Jul04   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 ★    
3  SHE'LL NEVER KNOW Sep18 Aug05 Jun29     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 30% 2.30    
4  MISS ADDIE LYNN Sep22 Aug06 Jul15 Jun23   (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 8.00    
5  IT TAKES HEART Jul08 May19       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00 ★    
6  CONDENSATION Sep16         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00 7% 13.50    
7  HAPPY CLOUDS Sep15 Jul16 Jun23     (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
 
CD-5   11/03/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET VALERIA Oct03 Sep18 Mar19 Feb11   (foster eric)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  START CLASS Sep18 Jul01 May29 May03   (medley joseph)RIQUELME J 121 50.00    
3  YELLOW CREEK ROAD Oct13 Sep24 Aug26 Jul15 Jun19 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00    
4  KNELCOCK Oct13         (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 20.00    
5  LIL RED CLOUD Oct11 Sep30 Sep07     (forston roy)ACHARD ALEX 121 12.00    
6  LANTERN'S CANDY Oct10 Sep16 Aug24 Jul23 Jul03 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50 39% 1.50    
7  DOGWOODS BECCA Sep16 Sep02 Aug11 Jul21 Jul12 (scott anthony )CASTANON L 121 20.00    
8  BIRD HUNTER Oct20 Sep18       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50    
9  STUPENDOUS Oct13 Sep18 Jul29 Jul15 Jun12 (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00 10% 8.80    
10  RED BEE Oct21 Aug07 Jul08     (cundiff way)NAUPAC WILLIAMS 124 12.00 10% 9.00    
11  ARNEIS Aug26 Jul22 Jun17     (hancock j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00    
12  VERDANDI Oct13 Jun22 Jun03 Apr26 Feb24 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 12% 7.20    
SCR  SUMMER AUTUMN ROSE Oct06 Sep28 Sep16 Aug16 Jul21 (scott anthony )MILLER CHASE 121 30.00    
 
CD-6   11/03/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FERRYBOAT Sep25 Aug31 Jul21 Jun21 Jun03 (miller f)COURT K 121 6.00 ★    
2  DECEIVER Oct19 Oct06 Sep20 Sep05 Aug24 (glyshaw tim)MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00    
3  SMOKEY LEE Oct04 Sep21 Sep08 Aug24 Aug05 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 120 12.00    
4  OVERTHOUGHT Oct19 Sep26 Aug15 Jul14 Jun21 (scherer marianne)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
5  KIDYOUNOT Oct13 Aug31 Aug02 Jul07 May30 (barnett c)RIQUELME J 121 10.00 ★    
6  HELLORHIGHWATER Sep25 Aug25 Jul20 May14 Mar09 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 3.00 47% 1.10    
7  CHASIN CHARLIE Oct14 Sep21 Sep08 Aug20   (richardson tim)MOJICA JR 121 30.00    
8  BARSTOW Sep25 Sep15 Aug31 Jul07 Jun23 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  EL FRANCO Oct12 Oct01 Sep18 Jul17 Jun22 (norris mike)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
10  NOT YET CHARLIE Oct14 Sep11 Aug03 Jun23 May29 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 25% 2.90    
 
CD-7   11/03/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SERGEANT COUNTZLER May12 Apr20       (walden william)ACHARD ALEX 119 4.00 17% 4.90    
2  F T W SLAM         (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
3  FROG TOWN Oct13         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 31% 2.20    
4  CONSTITUTION DAY         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
5  TOM'S SPIRIT Sep23         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 29% 2.50    
6  SACRED GROUND Oct13 Aug26       (diodoro )SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
7  DOUBLE STRIKE         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
8  LOUISIANIMAL Oct02         (foley greg)RIQUELME J 119 20.00    
9  NORTHERN RUNNER         (demeritte lar)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
10  NIKKI'STHEFAVORITE         (huffman pat)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00    
11  STREET SWAGG Sep21         (walsh brendan)VELAZQUEZ R 119 6.00    
12  CREATIVE STRATEGY Oct09         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 ★    
SCR  SHORTLY         (morse l)COURT K 119 12.00    
SCR  REPREHEND         (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00    
 
CD-8   11/03/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3 F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WATERS OF MEROM Oct21 Jul17 Jun12 May22 May07 (vasquez germa)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00 6% 15.30    
2  MOHAYLADY Oct13 Sep28 Sep18 Jul24 Jun22 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 12.00    
3  SHEZZ KOLDAZICE Oct13 Sep21 Aug30 Aug19 Aug06 (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 24% 3.20    
4  ANNAGANGSTA Sep28 Aug07 Jul22 Mar13 Jan16 (schultz linds)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 12.00    
5  LOMA VISTA Sep02 Aug04 Jun17 May20 Apr10 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 18% 4.60    
SCR  KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT Sep02 Aug20 Jun11 May15 Apr17 (manley steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00    
7  RING ME DARLING Oct07 Sep23 Aug14 Jul03 Jun18 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
8  ZING Sep16 Aug06 Jul01 Jun11 May09 (flint s)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
9  CANT BE TOUCHED Oct02 Sep18 Aug19 Mar11 Jan22 (cano juan )HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 26% 2.90    
10  DISTORTED SECRETS Oct02 Sep22 May31 May08 Apr15 (deville carl)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
11  STANLEY MARKET Sep18 Jul01 Jun11 May22 Apr22 (morse l)COURT K 118 6.00    
 
CD-9   11/03/2022 5610ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELLE OF THE BALL Jun22 May15 Apr08 Mar01 Jan22 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
2  FAST AS FLIGHT Oct13 Sep01 Feb10 Jan15   (lynch brian )BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 4.00 14% 6.30    
SCR  TWO SIXTYONE Oct27 Sep01 Jul09 Jun17 Jun08 (king l)CASTANON L 121 4.50 9% 9.70    
4  ROC'S PRINCESS Oct02 Sep18 Aug14 Jul03 Jun02 (gowan will)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 30.00    
5  TOERIS Oct13         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
6  DUPLICITOUS Oct14 Sep18 Sep01 Aug07 Jul08 (hawley wesley)LANERIE J 121 8.00    
7  DAME JOVIALE Oct15 Sep18 Aug14     (arnold ge)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 15.00    
8  QUARIA BRAVA Oct14 Aug25 Jul29 Jun29 May30 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
9  FUENTE OVEJUNA (GB) Oct13 Jul24 May07 Jan30 Jan02 (walsh brendan)VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.50 28% 2.60    
10  JOYFUL APPLAUSE Oct10 Sep14 Aug18 May29 May04 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
11  QUEEN JUDITH Oct14 Jun25 Apr14 Mar05 Jan16 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00    
SCR  CASA DE GOAT May21 Apr23       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 23% 3.30    
 
CD-10   11/03/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VICTORY MARCH Oct02 Jan09       (calhoun william)LANERIE J 124 6.00 25% 3.00    
2  RESERVE CURRENCY Sep18         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00    
SCR  UNDER THE GUN         (asmussen stev)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 10.00    
4  ELECTROMAGNETIC Sep18         (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00    
5  TOWN BRANCH Sep18 Jul03 Jun02 Apr09 Mar05 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 15.00    
6  MIDNIGHT RAID Sep23 Jul24 Jun22 Mar04   (casse norm)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
7  CANT BE DOIN THAT         (toy)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 30.00    
8  MOUNT CRAIG Jun26         (mott will)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 4.50 17% 4.90    
9  BOLD LOOKER Sep23 Aug28 Jul29 Jul03   (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  MAASAI WARRIOR Oct16 Sep18 Mar19 Feb19 Jan22 (leonard iii)GRAHAM J 121 12.00 16% 5.30    
11  YORK TAVERN Sep18 Jul16 Jun08     (devaux c)SANTANA JR 121 6.00    
12  CAWKAB         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  MAYAN Sep22         (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.