Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 12, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/12/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/12/6/7)-(1/12/6/7/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/12/6/7)-(1/12/6/7/11)-(1/12/6/7/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/12/6/7)-(3/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/12/6/7)-(3/2/4)-(13/10/2/4/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/4)-(3/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/4)-(3/2/4)-(3/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/4)-(13/10/2/4/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/2/4)-(13/10/2/4/8)-(8/12/2/10/3) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-3   WIN (13/10/2/4/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (13/10/2/4/8)-(13/10/2/4/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (13/10/2/4/8)-(13/10/2/4/8)-(13/10/2/4/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (13/10/2/4/8)-(8/12/2/10/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (13/10/2/4/8)-(8/12/2/10/3)-(10/3/5/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-4   WIN (8/12/2/10/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/12/2/10/3)-(8/12/2/10/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/12/2/10/3)-(8/12/2/10/3)-(8/12/2/10/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/12/2/10/3)-(10/3/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/12/2/10/3)-(10/3/5/2)-(6/3/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/3/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/3/5/2)-(10/3/5/2/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/3/5/2)-(10/3/5/2/9)-(10/3/5/2/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/3/5/2)-(6/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/3/5/2)-(6/3/8)-(9/1/6/10/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/8)-(6/3/4/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/3/8)-(6/3/4/8)-(6/3/4/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/3/8)-(9/1/6/10/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/3/8)-(9/1/6/10/7)-(3/5/10/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (9/1/6/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/1/6/10/7)-(9/1/6/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/1/6/10/7)-(9/1/6/10/7)-(9/1/6/10/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/1/6/10/7)-(3/5/10/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/5/10/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/10/8)-(3/5/10/11/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/5/10/8)-(3/5/10/11/8)-(3/5/10/11/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/12/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SELL IT Aug07 Jul14 Jun21     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 54% 0.90    
2  BRAVE WORDS Aug22 Jul18       (fernandez edwa)ASHTON GAVIN 119 6.00    
3  GARDINER Aug11         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
4  HANK HILL Aug17 Jul22       (brennan t)BEALMEAR C 112 8.00    
SCR  EL SARGENTO Aug20 Aug07       (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 20.00    
6  DOWN THE ISLANDS         (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  HUEVOS D'ORO         (orantes yoni )JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  BELIEVE IN DREAMS Aug05         (moquett ronal)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 20.00    
SCR  SPENARD         (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
10  BAYTOWN GUVNAH Aug17 Aug05 Jul21     (mcentee paul)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
11  ASLEEP AT EIGHT Sep05 Jul13 Jun13     (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 5.00 ★    
12  COLONEL YORKE Aug03 Jul07 Jun08     (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 4.00 14% 6.10    
13  BAMBY BOOM Aug15 Aug02 Jul18     (alvarez nery)CALLEJA ANDRES 112 12.00    
SCR  KERNER Aug05         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
 
CD-2   09/12/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GILDED CRAKEN Aug02 Jul12 Jun02 May11 Apr12 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.40    
2  J T'S IMAGINATION Jul20 Jun15 May23 Apr14 Mar01 (sharp joe)TORRES A 118 3.50 22% 3.70    
3  DANCE SOME MO Aug27 Jun23 Jun02 May05 Apr12 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.00 40% 1.50    
4  MUCHO MOJO Jun28 May25 May02 Mar23 Mar01 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00 11% 8.00    
5  HARLEEZY Aug18 May27 May02 Apr12 Mar14 (hartlage gary )ELLIOTT JANE 122 6.00    
6  HE'S A ANGEL Aug31 Jun01 Apr14 Mar16 Jan11 (orantes yoni )JIMENEZ ALBIN 122 20.00    
 
CD-3   09/12/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO HOPE Jun21 Jun05 Apr30 Sep02 Jun02 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 124 6.00    
2  TIS CHARMING Feb18 Oct22 Oct01     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 15% 5.80    
3  GHOST PRINCE Aug04 Jul11 Mar21 Mar07   (quartarol)LEPAROUX R 121 30.00    
4  ACTIVE DUTY (FR) Jun28 May18 Apr24 Feb22 Jan25 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 5.00 14% 6.20    
SCR  MARK UR WAY Aug25 Jul28       (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
6  COWBOY CODE Jul15 Jun21 Oct01 Jul21 Jun15 (lukas w)TORRES A 121 15.00    
7  DR. STORM Aug03 Jun21       (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 121 8.00    
8  LUCCHESI Aug17 Jul21 Jun16 May24 May02 (habeeb donal)GEROUX FLORENT 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GRAND ILLUSION Aug06         (catalano wa)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 20.00    
10  REMARKABLE MO Aug18 Jul22 Jun30 Jun13 Jun01 (brennan te)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 6.00 17% 5.00    
11  SESAME STREEK Jul28 Jul15 Jun21 May27 Apr21 (sharp joe)TORRES A 121 8.00    
12  BERNIN HOT Jul28 Jul07 Jun12 May10 Apr17 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00    
13  JON'S STREET BAND Jul29 Jun23       (vance tho)TORRES A 121 8.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  WICKED MELODY Aug25 Aug13 Jul06 Jun16 May21 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 121 10.00    
 
CD-4   09/12/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CITY OF CLOUDS Jul13 Jun08 May25 May05 Apr21 (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 20.00    
2  STINGY Jul18 Jun20 May25 Apr14 Feb10 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 13% 6.40    
3  EDDIE M Aug03 Jul13 May29 Sep13 Aug04 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  MOONSTRIKE (GB) Aug24 Jul31 Jul13 Jun06 May10 (dixon jr)HESS SARA 114 30.00    
SCR  EXPRESS CRUISER Jul13 Jun12 May19 Apr27 Apr04 (camejo m)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
6  EXTRA HALO Aug11 Jun23 Jun11 Dec20 Nov18 (granitz an)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
7  TOWN BRANCH Aug26 Jul28 Jul05 Jun02 May21 (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 123 10.00    
8  DAZZLEMESILVER Aug25 Aug03 Jul20 Jun02 May11 (amoss tho)TORRES A 121 3.00 36% 1.80    
SCR  BETTERING Jun12 May18 Apr27 Feb02 Jan12 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
10  SUPREMELY Aug03 Jun28 Apr07 Feb23 Dec29 (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 121 8.00 9% 10.30    
11  MYSTIC POWER Aug13 Jul09 Jun12 May28 May07 (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 120 30.00    
12  UNCLE BERLEY Aug03 Jul14 Jul04 Apr27 Apr12 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 6.00 15% 5.50    
 
CD-5   09/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AIN'T NO DISCO         (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of FIRST TOMOE by FIRST SAMURAI)
2  MITTY'S GRIDDY         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 11% 8.40    
  (by MITOLE out of SARAH'S SONG by SONGANDAPRAYER)
3  FREE COUNTRY         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 26% 2.90    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of BOY CRAZY by SKY MESA)
4  PUTTING EAGLE         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of MAGIC MOTION by BERNARDINI)
5  PERFECT FORCE Aug17 Jul20 Jun23     (lukas w)TORRES A 119 8.00 12% 7.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CUABA by SMOKE GLACKEN)
6  ICAN         (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of WE LOVE LUCY by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
7  TOM CAT TUESDAY         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 12.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of LAKE COMO by SALT LAKE)
SCR  TUXEDO PARK Aug05 May02 Apr10     (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 20.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of GREEN EYED CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
9  EL PRESTIGIO Aug03 Jun23       (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.50 ★    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of BARTLETT NARROWS by FLATTER)
10  CAMPAIGN TRAIL Aug24         (foster eri)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 8.00 26% 2.90    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of LUNA RISING by STAY THIRSTY)
11  CARCAR EXPRESS         (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by CARACARO out of FOXBEAU by BLUEGRASS CAT)
12  HITCHCOCK         (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MY DEAR VENEZUELA by WILDCAT HEIR)
SCR  MONSIEUR BIG MAN         (romans dale)ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of MAGICALCARPETRIDE by SMART STRIKE)
14  BOB MO         (crichton rohan)JARAMILLO E 119 10.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CRY AND CATCH ME by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  TETHERED SOUL         (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ASCOT DAY by STREET SENSE)
 
CD-6   09/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INTO GOLDEN ROAD Aug11 Jun11       (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 15.00    
SCR  BILYANA Aug10         (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.00    
SCR  THUNDER KIN Aug04         (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00 33% 2.10    
4  ANAKARINA Aug04 Jun26 May17     (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 ★    
5  ROSHIELL MY BELLE Jul28 Jun28       (abreu r)ORTIZ L 122 5.00    
6  ECHO SOUND Aug03         (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 38% 1.70    
7  OLIVIERA Aug23         (schoentha)RODRIGUEZ R 120 4.00    
8  BAYTOWN BUTTERFLY Aug24 Aug11 Jul05 Jun06 May18 (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 113 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   09/12/2024 4950ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RECKER POINT Jul22 Jun09 May05 Apr13 Mar17 (hartman chr)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 4.00 15% 5.60    
2  W W CANDY Aug03 Jun30 Jun08 May04 Apr16 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 15.00    
3  GULFSTREAM WAY Jul21 Oct06 Sep16 Aug04 Jul01 (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00    
4  CONFIDENCE GAME Jul05 Jun14 May11 Jan20 Dec23 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 20.00    
5  ARRO SMASH Aug24 Jul20 May16 Nov26 Nov02 (bauer a)ROSARIO JOEL 123 8.00    
6  RAISE CAIN Aug11 Jun30 May30 May04 Apr06 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 3.50 12% 7.10    
7  KAVOD Aug22 Jun29 Jun08 May02 Apr07 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GUNOE Nov30 Oct23 Sep11 Jul06 May08 (lobo paul)TORRES A 121 20.00    
9  EXTRA ANEJO Aug04 Jun30 May30 Jul22 Jun10 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 43% 1.30    
10  BROMLEY Feb22 Jan06 Nov26 Oct28 Sep20 (lobo paulo)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-8   09/12/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FURIO         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of TAKE CHARGE ANGEL by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
2  GREATDAYFORHOCKEY Aug24         (romans dale)ORTIZ L 119 15.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of CAT RAGS by UNION RAGS)
3  ZANDVOORT Aug05         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 4.50 38% 1.60    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of MELLONBROOK by DISCREET CAT)
SCR  CAMP HALE         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of MAGIC HOUR by AWESOME AGAIN)
5  QUINTILLION (IRE) Aug05         (miller darrin)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 26% 2.90    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  WORLD BEATER         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 15.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of DABINETT by BLAME)
7  BIG BOAT         (divito ja)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of IRISH PRESENCE by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
8  COPP         (mccarthy mich)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BLAME out of SIERRA OLIVIA by PULPIT)
SCR  MONEY MAN         (reed r)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of ORO BLANCO by HOLD FOR GOLD)
10  BRACKET BUSTER Aug07         (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 15% 5.70    
  (by VEKOMA out of SPRING DANCE by DANCE WITH RAVENS)
11  KALAHARI DREAMS         (bauer phili)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00 ★    
  (by COUNTRY HOUSE out of GEORGIA CLAY by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  SIR GALLIVANT         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of NAUGHTY SISTER by ARCHARCHARCH)
13  OTTER MISCHIEF         (hiles a)TORRES A 119 15.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of TITLE WINNER by TIZ WONDERFUL)
14  GALANTINI         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of MY GAL BETTY by POINT OF ENTRY)
SCR  I GOT GAME Aug03 Jun20 May30     (amoss tho)TORRES A 119 3.50    
  (by GAME WINNER out of BABY NINA by FLATTER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.