Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Tuesday - May 02, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/6)-(5/4/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/4/6)-(5/4/2/6)-(5/4/2/6) 18 $1.00 $9.00 
    DD (5/4/6)-(3/5/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6)-(3/5/6/4)-(3/6/5/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/5/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4) 24 $1.00 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/6/4)-(3/6/5/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6/4)-(3/6/5/4)-(4/6) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/6/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/5/4)-(3/6/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/5/4)-(3/6/5/4)-(3/6/5/4) 24 $1.00 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/5/4)-(4/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/6/5/4)-(4/6)-(3/2/6/7) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/6)-(4/6/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6)-(4/6/8/2)-(4/6/8/2) 12 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (4/6)-(3/2/6/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/6)-(3/2/6/7)-(7/8/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-5   WIN (3/2/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/6/7)-(3/2/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/6/7)-(3/2/6/7)-(3/2/6/7) 24 $1.00 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/6/7)-(7/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6/7)-(7/8/5)-(2/1/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/8/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/5)-(7/8/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/8/5)-(7/8/5)-(7/8/5) 6 $1.00 $3.00 
    DD (7/8/5)-(2/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/8/5)-(2/1/5)-(1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/5)-(2/1/5/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/5)-(2/1/5/8/9)-(2/1/5/8/9) 36 $1.00 $18.00 
    DD (2/1/5)-(1) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (2/1/5)-(1)-(9/4/5/2/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-8   WIN (1) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (1)-(1/3) 1 $1.00 $1.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (1)-(9/4/5/2/6) 5 $1.00 $5.00 
CD-9   WIN (9/4/5/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/4/5/2/6)-(9/4/5/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/4/5/2/6)-(9/4/5/2/6)-(9/4/5/2/6) 60 $1.00 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/02/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GORMLEYESQUE Apr19 Mar25 Feb15 Aug04   (catalano)RODRIGUEZ A 113 1.60    
2  KENTUCKY REIGN Apr19 Mar25 Aug13 Jul31   (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 108 8.00 ★    
SCR  TOTO'SRUBYSLIPPERS Oct29 Feb11 Jan08     (sims matth)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 6.00    
4  DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE Feb15 Dec02 Nov20 Oct19 Sep16 (taylor brent)GILLIGAN JACK 124 12.00 8% 11.70    
5  GIRLS HOUSE Mar18 Feb25 Feb15 Jan26 Dec28 (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 1.20 60% 0.70    
6  RECITE Mar30 Feb09 Jan18     (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  START CLASS Dec01 Nov03 Sep18 Jul01 May29 (medley jose)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 30.00    
 
CD-2   05/02/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN VIEW Mar25 Jan21       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
2  PARTY AT GRANTS Mar16         (forster t)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
3  LUNA MOTH Apr19 Mar09 Feb22 Jan25 Dec29 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 38% 1.70    
4  RUDIMENTARY DRINK Apr13 Feb02       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 8% 11.50    
5  LOTSANDLOTSOFGOLD Apr13 Feb09 Dec19 Jul30   (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 4.00 16% 5.10    
6  PROMISEMEPARADISE Mar02         (romans dal)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 8% 10.90    
7  PLUS POWER Mar18 Feb10       (casse mar)TORRES A 118 12.00    
8  EMBRACEABLE         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
 
CD-3   05/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUSICMANSANDY Apr14 Mar18 Mar12 Mar03 Feb17 (cash l)BEJARANO R 118 2.50    
2  SONADOR Apr13 Sep25 Sep16 Sep05 Jul30 (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 4.00    
3  ELECTRIC SENSE Mar24 Feb10 Dec23 Nov20 Oct26 (barkley jason)VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.50 31% 2.20    
4  BOURBONWITHGINGER Mar28 Feb14 Jan09 Dec01 Nov09 (tooley jennife)MACHADO LUAN 123 15.00 10% 9.50    
5  ACACIAHELPME Mar08 Jan20 Dec30 Aug14 May30 (o'connor r)HERNANDEZ J 123 6.00 12% 7.20    
6  JACKIE FLASH Apr08 Feb26 Feb09 Jan16 Jan06 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 4.50 15% 5.90    
7  DOMITIA LUCILLA Apr03 Feb28 Feb15 Jan20 Dec16 (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 125 5.00    
 
CD-4   05/02/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WILMORE Mar18 Feb01 Jan06 Dec21 Oct27 (begley greg)NAVAS YOEL 114 20.00    
2  TAP THE LINE Apr26 Feb01 Dec28 Nov21 Nov14 (lauer mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 15.00 ★    
3  BEACH KITTEN Feb25 Feb01 Nov11 Oct19 Sep22 (miller jerome)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
4  I'MHEREFORTHEPARTY Apr19 Feb23 Aug10     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 36% 1.80    
5  FAST GAL Jan25 Jan05 Jul17     (romans dale)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
6  MORE ROMANCE Dec03 Oct22 Sep29 Sep16 Aug03 (scherer mariann)LANERIE J 124 6.00 16% 5.40    
7  DRE ME LESS Mar30 Feb23 Dec14 Oct30 Sep29 (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00    
8  RAMADHAAN (IRE) Mar31 Mar22 Mar03 Feb05 Jan07 (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 8.00 ★    
SCR  A LITTLE BIT CRAZY Mar26 Jan22 Jan14 Dec03 Oct28 (wong jonathan)VAZQUEZ A 124 3.00 26% 2.80    
 
CD-5   05/02/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO SHIRO Mar02 Feb05 Dec31 Dec01 Oct30 (catalano way)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00    
2  EIDIKOS (GB) Apr13         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 124 3.00 14% 6.10    
3  JOYFUL APPLAUSE Dec21 Nov25 Nov03 Oct10 Sep14 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.50 43% 1.30    
4  JE SUIS RAPIDE Apr19 Apr01 Feb25 Jan20 Dec21 (king l)MOJICA JR 124 30.00    
5  TAKE CHARGE BRIANA Apr01 Mar19 Feb25 Jan28 Dec31 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
6  FUENTE OVEJUNA (GB) Mar26 Feb08 Dec04 Nov03 Oct13 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.50 7% 12.60    
7  BREAKER OF CHAINS Apr23 Mar05 Jan28     (weaver geor)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SAKE (FR) Apr13 Dec21 Oct13 Jun25 Jun04 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 6.00    
9  HELENS WELL (IRE) Nov27 Oct29 Sep04 Jul23 Jun12 (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 124 12.00    
SCR  ACADEMIC HONOR Apr14 Feb13       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.00 12% 7.70    
 
CD-6   05/02/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUSIC AMORE Mar02 Dec31 Dec10 Oct14 Sep03 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.80    
2  ZAWADI Feb18 Jan28 Dec29 Oct06 Aug19 (hill f)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 20.00    
3  WATERS OF MEROM Mar17 Feb03 Jan25 Dec14 Nov25 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
4  SACRED BEAUTY Mar20 Feb10 Jan15 Jan02 Dec10 (wong jonat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00    
5  ADDISON Mar11 Feb16 Feb03 Jan13 Aug23 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 118 15.00 8% 11.60    
SCR  PRINCESS NINA Apr12 Mar17 Feb16 Jan04 Dec07 (cundiff )RODRIGUEZ A 113 12.00 14% 6.00    
7  NEVERSAYNOLETSGO Jan04 Oct26 Sep22 Aug30 Jun09 (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 5.00 29% 2.50    
8  SHE'S GONE D'WILD Apr22 Mar15 Feb20 Jan16 Dec10 (barkley )SANTANA JR 118 6.00 17% 5.00    
 
CD-7   05/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIRDIE ROSE Sep24         (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00 25% 3.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HOMEMADE SALSA by TWO STEP SALSA)
2  GIADA Mar25         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 32% 2.10    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TASTEFUL by STREET CRY)
3  PRINCESS POM POM Mar25         (forster t)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of CECILEABRATION by GRAEME HALL)
4  SWEET AZTECA         (mccarthy mich)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of SO SWEETITIZ by GRAND SLAM)
5  GENEROUS LOVER Mar01         (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00 22% 3.60    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of HULA SKIRT by DIXIE UNION)
6  MISS ARLINGTON Apr15 Mar31 Mar01     (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00    
  (by MARK VALESKI out of LUVNOTIONUMBERNINE by NOTIONAL)
7  SACRED CIRCLE         (beckman )SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE (ARG) out of TAR HEEL MOM by FLATTER)
8  HAPPY AM I         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 ★    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CAT DANCE by TOM CAT)
9  LITTLE PRANKSTER         (bauer phil)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 ★    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of GOOD GRAMMAR by EXCHANGE RATE)
10  MAMBA OUT         (hill f)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
CD-8   05/02/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AGENT PETER GRAVES Mar04 Jan19 Dec24 Oct23 Jun22 (mott william )ORTIZ JR 121 3.00 29% 2.50    
2  CHASING ARTIE Sep10 Jul03 Jun11 May06 Apr01 (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50    
3  MISTER MMMMM Apr08 Mar05 Feb11 Jan06 Nov07 (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 4.00 ★    
4  ALL IN SYNC Apr08 Feb18 Oct08 Sep10 Aug07 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 12.00    
SCR  ON YOUR MARK Mar16 Sep14 Aug18 Jun22 May30 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
SCR  KADRI Apr13 Mar19 Mar07 Feb26 Feb08 (cash l)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 ★    
SCR  IAN GLASS Mar18 Jan28 Dec21 Nov26 Oct23 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 20.00    
8  THANKS MR. EIDSON Mar23 Feb17 Jan01 Aug07 Jul13 (o'neill )SANTANA JR 121 10.00    
9  COPPOLA Apr02 Mar04 Dec30 Nov09 Oct14 (romans dale)VELAZQUEZ R 121 10.00    
SCR  HE'SMYHONEYBADGER Mar18 Feb11 Jan06 Nov23 Sep23 (sharp joe)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00    
11  DIAMOND CITY Apr08 Mar30 Mar10 Feb10 Jan06 (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 121 30.00    
SCR  SANTOS DUMONT Jul04 Jun04 May01 Apr02 Feb26 (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 10.00 ★    
13  WILLTORUN Apr08 Feb25 Jan14 Dec17 Nov17 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 10.00    
SCR  SUTHERLAND Mar16 Feb12 Dec31 Dec04 Oct16 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00    
15  CHARCOAL Feb17 Oct28 Oct08 Sep10 Aug07 (wisner tracey)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00    
SCR  MAMBA ON THREE Apr08 Mar04 Jan19 Nov27 Oct30 (david a)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00 48% 1.10    
 
CD-9   05/02/2023 6600ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ATLANTIC DANCER Mar23 Mar02 Feb04 Jan07 Dec17 (zito nichola)GEROUX FLORENT 125 15.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SLOW SAND by DIXIELAND BAND)
2  ROUTE RUNNER Apr01 Feb18 Sep10 Aug20   (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 8% 12.10    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of PURE CLAN by PURE PRIZE)
3  GAME KEEPER Mar11 Feb25       (lukas wayne)VAZQUEZ A 118 15.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of CABLEKNIT by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
4  PROVE WORTHY Mar11 Jan21       (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00 16% 5.10    
  (by CURLIN out of ENDLESS CHATTER by FIRST SAMURAI)
5  MOUNT CRAIG Mar23 Mar02 Feb04 Nov27 Nov03 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 8.00 16% 5.10    
  (by ARROGATE out of FLASH FORWARD by SCROLL)
6  TSHIEBWE Apr14 Feb26 Feb01 Oct13 Aug13 (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50 7% 13.80    
  (by RACE DAY out of DIVINE FRIENDS by DIVINE PARK)
7  BRAGGADOCIOUS Apr15         (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 125 4.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TIZ O' GOLD by CEE'S TIZZY)
8  HERO'S MEDAL Mar26         (stall m)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of MAGICAL MOON by MALIBU MOON)
9  GAME WARDEN Feb26 Jan14 Oct15 Oct01 Aug27 (mott william )VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.00 33% 2.10    
  (by TAPIT out of GLORY AND POWER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.