Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 10, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/10/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MAXIMUM IMPACT Oct27 Oct20 Sep24 Aug19 Aug07 (cash l)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
2  TOTALIZER Oct26 Sep15 Aug27 Jul24 Apr07 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 ★    
3  RED KNOBS Sep25 Aug20 Aug01 Jul03 Jun19 (diodoro r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 1.60 53% 0.90    
4  TEST PILOT Oct14 Sep17 Aug17 Aug03 Jul13 (padilla tim)COURT K 120 6.00 15% 5.70    
5  MUGSY MALONE Oct15 Sep18 Aug21 Aug05 Jul16 (d'angelo j)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 ★    
6  READY PURSUIT Oct23 Sep30 Sep06 Aug22 Aug09 (antonuik jerr)CANUTO THIAGO 118 15.00 ★    
 
CD-2   11/10/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOGEY FREE Jul31         (lauer mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
SCR  ONTOTHENEXT Sep23         (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
3  LADY ENVOY Oct21 Sep23 Jul16     (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 5.00 6% 16.60    
4  RALLYING HEART         (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00    
5  CANARY NATION         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
6  MS HAYLEY Oct01         (hiles rick)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 52% 0.90    
7  TWELVE SHARP Oct01         (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
8  SMOOTH LIKE ICE Oct13 Sep05       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
9  ESSER FUND         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 15.00 ★    
SCR  MO'S ROYAL FLUSH         (reed r)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
11  PRANA         (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 10.00    
12  SHE HAS THE LOOK Oct16 Sep13 Aug13 Jul09   (romans dale)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
SCR  LILY'S HOME Oct12 Oct04 Sep21 Sep07 Aug10 (elliott)DE CRUZ 119 5.00 7% 12.80    
SCR  GLO GIRL GLO Oct11 Sep07 Aug10 Jul19   (sherman alan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
SCR  ANN KOR         (waltz brian)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
SCR  LUCKSME         (diodoro robe)JORDAN R 119 6.00 14% 6.00    
 
CD-3   11/10/2022 5940ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWENTYTWENTY HOAX Oct28 Oct01 Aug20 Aug06 Jul16 (king l)CASTANON L 124 20.00    
2  SUNROOF Oct28 Jul31 Mar07 Jan08   (santamaria carl)LANERIE J 121 3.50 ★    
3  APPLE EVER AFTER Oct06         (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 121 12.00    
SCR  QUICK ROMANCE Oct06 Aug20 Jul30 Jun17   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 10.00    
5  WHAT'S TO DO Oct10 Sep14 Jul23 Jun30 May15 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 10.00 ★    
6  SWEET LADY IVANKA Oct15 Sep17 Aug07 Jul17   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50 30% 2.30    
7  TIFFANY'S MO Oct21 Sep14 Jul29 Jun30 Jun03 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 3.00 6% 14.70    
8  PARTYLINE Oct27 Sep14 Aug16 Jul12   (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 2.50 39% 1.60    
 
CD-4   11/10/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEUS EX MACHINA         (ortiz alexan)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00    
2  NORGAY Oct26 Sep15 Aug13 Jul15   (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 122 3.50 16% 5.30    
3  GRASSROOTS Oct06         (shifflett ch)ARAGON ROLANDO 122 20.00    
4  MY FAVORITE UNCLE Nov02 Oct10 Sep20 Aug31 Jul20 (capps a)BEJARANO R 124 12.00 10% 9.40    
5  CLIQUER         (mcgee paul)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00    
6  C J ALL THE WAY Oct11 Sep24 May28 May04   (lovell mic)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 38% 1.70    
7  DIVISION STREET Jun18 May22 Apr02     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 15.00    
8  SCRATCHOFF Sep15 Aug13 Jul15     (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 122 4.50 14% 6.00    
9  STRICKLAND Jul31 Mar19       (brennan terry)RIQUELME J 122 30.00    
10  BOURBON ON FIRE Oct28 Oct08 Sep18 Aug13 Jun24 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00 ★    
 
CD-5   11/10/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS MARPLE Sep27 Sep09 Aug25 Aug04 Jul27 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 118 8.00 21% 3.80    
2  MEDWAY QUEEN Oct23 Sep19 Aug31 Aug17 Aug06 (silva h)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
3  INSPEIGHTFUL Sep15 Aug26       (wiggins lon)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 10.00    
4  ARLYNE'S CROWN Oct21 Sep05 Aug20 Aug04 Feb17 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 3.00 33% 2.00    
5  COOL CAROL Sep23 Aug24 Jul29 Jun29   (green troy)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00    
6  EYEOFTHEBEHOLDER Sep22 Sep09 Aug09 Jul19 Jun30 (jazdzewski jon)MOJICA JR 118 30.00    
7  KAIYAS SONG Oct11 Sep08 Jul06 Jun23 Jun10 (faircloth av)CALLEJA ANDRES 108 30.00    
8  SOCIAL MANDATE Oct20 Oct08 Sep23 Aug19 Jul30 (cano juan )CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 ★    
9  DILMUNIA Aug21 Jul30 Jun25 Jun02   (catalano w)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 6.00    
10  EXPECT THE BOSS Oct11 Sep20 Aug17 Aug09 Jul23 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 17% 4.80    
11  PONTIFFANY Sep29 Sep15 Aug25 Aug04 Jul09 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 118 8.00    
12  SIS BOOM BOB Oct11 Sep30 Sep06 Aug17 Jul19 (gonzalez re)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00 6% 16.60    
 
CD-6   11/10/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECRET STATEMENT         (baker jam)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
2  BE HERE NOW         (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 10.00    
3  TITLED LADY         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
4  SIRIUS LIGHT Sep01 Aug05 Jun29     (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 ★    
5  RING TWICE Sep24         (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00 ★    
6  TAMARA'S WAY Oct26         (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 25% 3.00    
7  HAPPYSECRET Oct12 Sep24       (wohlers lau)PETERSON FERRIN 119 4.00 44% 1.30    
8  UNIFYING Sep15         (mott riley)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50 9% 10.30    
SCR  SAVAGE DARLING         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
10  FOR THE BISCUIT         (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/10/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OFFICIAL BUSINESS Oct16 Sep01 Jul23 May22 Apr24 (sims a)GILLIGAN JACK 121 12.00    
2  COMMANDER COMPTON Oct02 Sep03 Aug12 Jun11 May14 (kordenbrock mat)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
3  HORSE DADDY Aug27 Aug05 Jul23 Jun29 May16 (ewing michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00 7% 13.80    
4  MUNDO MIX Jul05 Jun11 May27 May11 Apr11 (caramori eduar)LEZCANO ABEL 118 8.00    
5  MILITARY FORCE Oct10 Mar26 Mar12 Mar02 Feb19 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 121 12.00    
6  MOON DOG Oct11 Sep18 Aug17 Jul19 Jun19 (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 16% 5.10    
7  TRIGGER HAPPY May21 May01 Apr16 Jan07   (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.50 23% 3.30    
8  THOUGHT Oct06 Aug27 Jul24 Jul01 Jun09 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 18% 4.60    
9  MARK THE MOOSE Oct25 Oct20 Oct05 Sep12 Aug24 (radosevich)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 8% 11.20    
 
CD-8   11/10/2022 3300ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY GOLDSTART Oct19 Aug21 Jun25 May26   (cano juan )MURRILL MITCHELL 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  MINUTE WALTZ Oct22 Oct01 Sep05 Jun26 Jun02 (bauer a)BEJARANO R 122 4.50    
3  ALTERED SHOT Sep25 Jul02 Jun12 May21 Apr30 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 35% 1.90    
4  ARI OAKLEY Jun26 May28 May01 Apr07 Feb26 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 7% 14.10    
5  AVA'S GRACE Jul02 Jun04 May06 Apr08 Mar12 (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 120 4.50 27% 2.60    
6  MISS T TOO Jan06         (mccarthy mic)GEROUX FLORENT 120 10.00 5% 18.00    
7  READY FOR CHANGE Sep25 Aug07 May14 Mar13 Feb13 (pessin nei)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
8  QUOTABELLE Oct06 Aug26 Jul04 Jun05   (sharp joe)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
9  MAYBE I WILL Jun26 May20 Apr10 Mar19 Jan02 (morey willia)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 20.00    
SCR  ALBERTA SUN Aug03 Jun25 Jun09 Apr16 Feb19 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 15.00    
SCR  HAZY COMMAND Oct04 Jul20 Jun26 May21 Apr10 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
12  PERFECT HAPPINESS May29 Apr30 Mar20 Jan22 Jan02 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
 
CD-9   11/10/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY OCEAN Oct30 Jul15       (delgado gus)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 8.00    
2  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES Sep22 Aug28       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 1.60 35% 1.80    
3  KING'S MISTRESS         (ortiz john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
4  CRAZY FACE         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 19% 4.30    
5  CHARLEE MAE Oct12 Aug29       (mil)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 6.00 24% 3.20    
6  GRAY VIXEN         (ewing mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
7  LADAN Oct20 Sep24 Jul31 Jun29   (bogle fergus)CASTANON L 119 15.00    
8  MOR HAPPY HOURS Sep22         (vance r)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
9  OUR LILY ROBIN         (combs bentley)RIQUELME J 119 20.00 ★    
10  PERFECTLY GOLDEN         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.