Handicappers' Racing Form

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Arapahoe Park
Monday - September 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ARP-3   Win (4/3/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ARP-4   Win (5/10/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ARP-5   Win (1/3/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ARP-6   Win (7/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ARP-7   Win (6/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ARP-8   Win (1/5/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ARP-9   Win (4/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ARP-3   09/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($14.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WE ALL AGREE Aug27 Aug05 Jul15 Jul10 May06 (barrio sergio)OSUNA MARTIN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
MIRACLE OF HOPE Jan20 Jan02 Dec14 Nov23 Nov05 (villamar candelario)LULL E 124 2.50    
BAKERSFIELD BABE Aug05 Jul16 Apr22 Apr01 Mar27 (ortega joe)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 22% 3.50    
JULIARD HONOR Aug27 Aug05 Jul15 Jul10 Jun24 (hibdon n)MORALES ROBERTO 124 4.50 40% 1.50    
PRINCESS JAYLEEN Sep04 Aug07 Jul23 Jul08 Jun24 (torres-casas a)JOURNET JARRED 120 6.00    
ELEMENTAL Jun24 Jun18 Apr01 Mar19 Feb07 (perkinson cc)RAMEY CASH 119 12.00    
MILLI STARR Aug13 Jul23 Jul02 May20 Apr30 (roberts m)RAMOS B 124 20.00    
OLIVIAN Aug20 Jul30 Jun17 May19 Apr08 (christian billy)WALES T 124 8.00 8% 11.90    
 
ARP-4   09/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($3.5K) Purse ($4.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:15
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CLASSICALLY WICKED Jul30 Jul23 Jul14 Jun11 Apr28 (haar j)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 2.50    
SCR  ITHOUGHTIKNEW Aug26 Aug06 Jul23 Jul08 Jun17 (childs g)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 47% 1.10    
HIGH ON LIFE Aug26 Aug06 Apr01 Sep26 Mar26 (young a)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 20.00    
WEST'S ON FIRE Aug13         (martinez a)MORALES ROBERTO 117 12.00    
DESERT PEPPER Sep02 Aug26 Aug19 Dec20 Nov14 (marquez jose )VORRATH VALENTE 120 4.50 12% 7.30    
SCR  LADY UPSET         (hall monk)RAMEY CASH 112 15.00    
DANGERELLA Aug13 Jul23 Jul09 Jun17 Apr29 (whitehouse r)LULL E 124 8.00    
ATHENIAN PRINCESS Sep03 Aug13 Jul23 Jul08 Jun17 (hibdon n)LUARK T 124 10.00 5% 18.10    
SCR  DESERT SUNSET Aug19         (barraza s)WALES T 120 4.00    
10  JUST A SEC Aug26 Aug06 Jul29 Jul16   (hall monk)RAMOS B 117 12.00 10% 8.70    
11  LAST AMIGA Aug26 Aug06 Jul16     (triana ma)JOURNET JARRED 117 15.00    
12  QUIK STORM Aug26         (chavez juan)BARRIENTOS ANGEL 117 20.00    
 
ARP-5   09/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($6.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY Aug21 Aug07 Jul09 Jun04 May02 (esquibel mark)LULL E 124 6.00 25% 3.10    
NEW YEARS LOVE Sep03 Aug13 Jul23 Jul02 Jun18 (jenkins l)WALES T 124 3.50    
JUST REMEMBER Aug20 Jul30 Jul10 Sep25 Aug22 (hall monk)RAMOS B 121 4.50 18% 4.40    
PROMPTLY DONE Sep03 Aug21 Aug07 Jul16 Jun25 (rushton temple)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
DONNAS FINAL WORD Aug21 Jul30 Oct03 Sep25 Sep13 (vicchrilli russe)LUARK T 121 4.00    
D'WILD MUFFIN Aug27 Jul17 May29 May20 Apr30 (hibdon n)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50 13% 6.70    
LA ROSA DRIVE Aug21 Aug13 Aug07 Jul22 Jul10 (chavez jua)BENN J 124 8.00 9% 10.70    
COLD AS YOU Aug07 May19 May13 May05 Apr22 (hibdon n)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 20.00    
 
ARP-6   09/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($6.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHICKEN N BISCUIT Aug26 Aug21 Jul31 Jul16 Apr17 (esquibel mark)LULL E 124 3.50    
JU JU GUY Sep02 Aug13 Jul30 Jul15 Jul02 (childs g)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.50    
MY TRUE REWARD Aug26 Jul17 May06 Apr29 Apr15 (young a)HAAR NATHAN 124 15.00    
AMERICAN REALITY Aug07 Jul17 Apr30 Mar26 Mar12 (hibdon mark )BARRIENTOS ANGEL 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SEGOVIANA Sep03 Aug20 Jun18 May05 Apr28 (hibdon n)RAMEY CASH 116 10.00    
POLICY LIMIT Aug26 Aug14 Jul31 Jul15 May13 (quezada zachary)LUARK T 124 8.00 15% 5.60    
TRICKY LEE Sep02 Aug05 Jul02 Apr17 Jan25 (martinez a)WALES T 124 2.50 60% 0.70    
 
ARP-7   09/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC6 SLOPPY Optional Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($7.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BORN TO REIGN Aug27 Aug05 Jun24 Apr17 Mar04 (martinez a)RAMOS B 124 3.50 13% 6.60    
SHE'S SMART ENOUGH Aug27 Aug07 Jul10 Jun17 Sep27 (martinez a)WALES T 121 6.00 31% 2.20    
BREAKFAST BALL Aug07 Jun18 Apr19 Mar26 Mar01 (whitehouse r)LULL E 124 2.50    
T R'S FIRST Aug14 Jul16 Jul03 Jun19 Apr29 (hibdon n)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 20.00    
DIVA'S DIVA Sep03 Aug07 Jul17 Jun24 May19 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 15.00    
LIL MISS DE BUY Sep03 Aug21 Aug07 Jul17 Oct03 (hibdon n)MORALES ROBERTO 121 4.50 35% 1.80    
 
ARP-8   09/11/2023 5610ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Arapahoe Park Derby Purse ($22.25K) 3 ALL PT- 5:55
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MY MAN BIGGIE Aug14 Jul29 Jul08 Jun17 May06 (ortega joe)LULL E 122 3.50 44% 1.30    
LUCYS MAJOR MIRCLE Aug12 Jul30 Jul15 Jul02 Oct01 (vicchrilli russe)MCNEIL BRYAN 122 4.50 8% 11.00    
YOU'RE MY ROCK Aug26 Jul30 Jul09 Oct01 Sep11 (martinez a)RAMEY CASH 122 20.00    
SCR  RUNNIN BUFFALO Aug26 Aug07 Jul23 Jul02 Jun19 (rushton temple)JOURNET JARRED 122 12.00    
CHROMESIDSATION Aug27 Aug07       (garrett j)WALES T 122 2.50 26% 2.80    
WHEELER DEALER Aug12 Jul30 Jul10 Jun23 Jun03 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
TREASURE COAST Sep02 Aug21 Aug14 Jul30 Jul15 (hibdon n)LUARK T 122 20.00    
SCR  I SEE CLEARLY NOW Sep02 Jul15 Jun18 May28 Apr15 (hibdon n)MORALES ROBERTO 122 12.00    
LOCO LUNA Aug26 Jul30 Jul10 Jun19 Dec10 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 122 6.00    
 
ARP-9   09/11/2023 3300ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:20
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HEY NOW Aug20 Jul22 Jul02 Apr26 Apr17 (kenney dan)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50    
QUICKTRIP VAN Aug26 Aug14 Jul29 Jul10 Sep04 (vicchrilli russe)LUARK T 121 4.50    
PREACHER Aug12 Jul15 Jun25 Jun17 May13 (hibdon n)MORALES ROBERTO 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
KATAR Jun17 May02 Apr04 Mar14 Feb27 (kenney dan)WALES T 120 1.00 67% 0.50    
LETTHERAINSETTLEIT Aug26         (story chad)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 20.00    
KELLER'S GOLD Jul02 Apr26 Mar26 Feb27 Jan31 (moreno carlos)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
EZ GUESS Jul15 Jul01 Jun17 May02 Apr11 (quezada zachary)OSUNA MARTIN 124 20.00    
REVIVAL Aug12 Jul13 Jul05 May10 Apr24 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 124 3.50    
HOYA PARANOYA Aug20 Jul31 Jun17 Mar19 Mar03 (garrett j)LULL E 124 8.00    
10  CHERUBIM Aug26 Aug13 Jul17 May20 May12 (roberts brian)VORRATH VALENTE 124 30.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.