Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Wednesday - August 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (3/1)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/1)-(2/5/4)-(5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-2   WIN (2/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/4)-(2/5/4)-(2/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/5/4)-(5/3)-(1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-3   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 (5/3)-(1/5)-(2/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-4   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(2/6/4)-(1/4/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-5   WIN (2/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/4)-(2/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/4)-(2/6/4)-(2/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/6/4)-(1/4/6)-(6/1/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-6   WIN (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/6)-(1/4/6)-(1/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/4/6)-(6/1/4)-(5/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-7   WIN (6/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/4)-(6/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/4)-(6/1/4)-(6/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (6/1/4)-(5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
TDN-8   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   08/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($22.4K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOUBLE EDGED Jul05 Jun19 May03 Mar30 Dec21 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 119 2.50 30% 2.30    
2  SARAH JANE Aug21 Aug02 Jul14 Jun19 May20 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 121 8.00    
3  LARSA Aug16 Aug02 Jul05 Jun26 Jun06 (doering mark)TOLEDO S 123 2.00 47% 1.10    
4  CHLOES ANGEL Aug10 Aug02 Jul17 Jun12 May20 (romero o)FERNANDEZ R 119 3.00    
SCR  ST PATTY'S SONG Aug14 Mar16 Jan16 Dec22 Dec07 (patton luke)HOUGHTON D 119 12.00    
6  PISTOL PACKIN BOS Aug08 Jul19 Jul04 Jun13 May23 (hurley l)PAUCAR E 119 4.00    
 
TDN-2   08/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($17K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOLLYS SUPER STAR Aug09         (radosevich justi)RIVERA R 123 15.00    
2  MOST ADORABLE Jul25 Jul05 May31 May11   (rone mike)SANCHEZ JEFFREY 119 1.80 28% 2.50    
3  SEE YA SISTA Aug09 Jul13 Jun19 Jun05 May15 (tumblin an)SMITH DIOGDINABI 123 6.00    
4  HAUGHTY PRAISE Aug09 Jul25 Jul13 Aug19 Aug08 (tumblin andrew)DIAZ R 123 2.00 19% 4.10    
5  EXTRA CRAFTY Aug09 Jul13 Jun20 Jun01   (guciardo robert)VELEZ J 123 3.00 25% 3.00    
6  BOOKMASTER Aug12 Jul13 Sep29 Aug31   (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 119 8.00    
 
TDN-3   08/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($27.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POWERFUL PHIL Aug02 Jul11 Jun20 Jun07 May23 (ja)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 10.00    
2  MUTINY Aug03 Jul13 Jun19 May31 May09 (skerrett jef)HALDAR J 119 2.50    
3  PLAY BALL Jul31 May22 Apr06 Mar09 Feb28 (urieta )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 4.50 30% 2.30    
SCR  TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH Aug08 May22 Feb28 Nov28 Nov09 (ibarra marco)BARBARAN ERIK 119 2.00    
5  GALACTIC Jul31 Jun15 May22 Apr06 Mar09 (ibarra)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 1.80 33% 2.00    
 
TDN-4   08/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($15.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WARHORSE WEST May29 May09 Apr25 Apr10 Mar22 (rone mike)RIVERA R 115 2.50 41% 1.40    
SCR  KILLER BEE Jun23 May27 May11 Apr13 Apr05 (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 119 12.00    
3  MARSICO Aug08 Jul31 Jul12 Mar18 Feb18 (at)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 4.50    
SCR  MISTERCHILLIWILLI Aug09 Jul19 Jun27 Jun06   (rini anthony)FELICIANO R 115 3.00 34% 2.00    
5  ARMOR PIERCING Aug09 Jul10 Jun06 May05 Jan12 (diehl candace)DIAZ I 115 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  DON'T CROSS JACK Aug06 Jul10 May22 Feb14 Dec30 (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 115 3.50    
7  NAPA DUDE Aug09 Jul25 Jul12 Jun21 Jun06 (casalinova ti)GUERERE ANGEL 117 5.00    
 
TDN-5   08/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KHALFANI Aug08 Jul03 Jun10 May15 Apr15 (trevino st)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 119 4.50    
2  MON CAMO Jul26 Jun19 May17 Apr25 Sep21 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 121 1.80 55% 0.80    
3  DOMI Aug10 Jul27 Jul11 Jun20 May29 (mahan joseph )TOLEDO S 115 12.00    
4  TUFF ATTACK Aug08 Jul20 Jul03 Jun10 May20 (canegata james)FELICIANO R 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  CALL WEST Aug17 Jul31 Jun24 Jun07 May15 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 119 2.50    
6  KOSCIUSZKO Aug08 Jul26 Sep21 Sep12 Aug15 (brown glenroy)BOWEN ROCCO 119 3.00 20% 4.00    
 
TDN-6   08/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLOR BEARER Aug08 Jul20 Jul05 Jun14 May25 (skerrett jeffrey)RIVERA R 119 1.80 32% 2.10    
2  OVERLOAD Feb08 Oct11       (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 115 2.50    
3  MUSIC GEM Aug18 May31 Apr24 Apr12 Mar29 (figueroa ces)TAPARA BRANDON 115 6.00    
4  LITTLE TOY GUNS Jul25 Jul04 Feb16 Dec30 Dec14 (tooley jennif)BRACHO A 115 3.00 28% 2.60    
5  JOHN PHILIP Aug22 Dec14 Nov30 Nov14 Oct27 (dacosta jason)DIAZ I 115 5.00    
6  LITTLE RONS ROCKET Apr12 Mar14 Feb27 Jan12 Dec30 (radosevich jake )AVILES YAN 115 15.00 17% 4.80    
 
TDN-7   08/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DANES HEART Jul27 Jul04 Jun14 May10 Apr12 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 119 3.50 19% 4.20    
2  CHILTEPIN Aug12 Jul27 Jul05 Nov30 Nov14 (huffman cand)BERRIOS HECTOR 117 2.00    
3  MARCH MAGIC Aug22 Jul04 Jun14 May31 Apr27 (brown glen)HALLEDEEN ROBERT 119 8.00    
4  INDY CARR Aug12 Jul22 Apr12 Mar29 Mar13 (tooley jennif)BRACHO A 115 15.00 9% 9.70    
5  PLAYING BALL Jul27 Jul13 Jul04 Jun07 May31 (suarez javi)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 6.00    
6  WATCHOUTFORWEAVER Jul27 Dec30 Nov30 Nov14 Oct12 (davis scooter)GONZALEZ A 115 1.60 43% 1.30    
 
TDN-8   08/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($31.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHY GUY Aug06 Jul16 Jul03 May30 May16 (sauer j)PAUCAR E 123 4.50    
2  BOURBON WISDOM Aug16 Aug02 Jul05 Jun24 Jun15 (sk)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 3.50    
SCR  AYE AYE SIR Aug09 Jul17 Jun26 May30 Nov19 (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 119 6.00    
4  WICKED WARRIOR Aug09 Jul19 Jun26 May10 Apr16 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 119 2.00 19% 4.30    
5  BEER CHASER Aug09 Jul20 May30 Apr16 Mar24 (puhl kim)GONZALEZ A 121 2.50 48% 1.10    
6  OUTLIER Aug03 Jul16 Jul08 Jun21 Jun04 (ginter j)AVILES YAN 119 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.