Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 25, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(6/3/9/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1)-(6/3/9/5)-(4/3/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/3/9/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/9/5)-(6/3/9/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/9/5)-(6/3/9/5)-(6/3/9/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/3/9/5)-(4/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/9/5)-(4/3/1)-(5/8/1/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (4/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/1)-(4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/1)-(5/8/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/1)-(5/8/1/2)-(3/8/6/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (5/8/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/1/2)-(5/8/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/1/2)-(5/8/1/2)-(5/8/1/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/8/1/2)-(3/8/6/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/8/1/2)-(3/8/6/4)-(6/2/8/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (3/8/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/6/4)-(3/8/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/6/4)-(3/8/6/4)-(3/8/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/8/6/4)-(6/2/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/8/6/4)-(6/2/8/1)-(7/2/1/3) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/2/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/8/1)-(6/2/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/8/1)-(6/2/8/1)-(6/2/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/8/1)-(7/2/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/2/8/1)-(7/2/1/3)-(9/2/10/4/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (7/2/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/1/3)-(7/2/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/1/3)-(7/2/1/3)-(7/2/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/2/1/3)-(9/2/10/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/2/10/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/2/10/4/5)-(9/2/10/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/2/10/4/5)-(9/2/10/4/5)-(9/2/10/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/25/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIVINING STONE         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 125 5.00 5% 19.00    
2  BON BUENO Apr14 Mar26 May28 Apr09 Feb19 (sharp joe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 125 2.50 58% 0.70    
3  REPREHEND Apr26 Feb04 Dec31 Nov13   (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
4  RIVER IN EGYPT Apr20 Mar25 Feb10 Jan27   (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 111 3.00 10% 8.90    
5  REGIMENTAL Apr08 Nov26 Sep10     (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50    
6  CRONUS Apr29 Mar24 Jan13 May07 Mar25 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 5.00    
 
CD-2   05/25/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GO OTTO GO         (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of COURT DANCER by WAR CHANT)
2  SUGA STEVE May03         (bahena ismael)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of HELEN SUNG by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
3  BEAUDACIOUS COLTON May03 Apr07       (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 114 3.00 17% 5.00    
  (by RACE DAY out of BEAUDACIOUS LADY by BEAU GENIUS)
SCR  PRINCE OF POWER May03 Apr20 Apr07     (vosler eugen)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 12.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of DEMIGODDESS by FIRST DUDE)
5  CASSIUS         (hernandez rey)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 6% 15.80    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of PROSPERITY by TAPIT)
6  FIFTH AVENUE         (mott riley)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 39% 1.60    
  (by STREET SENSE out of PRINCESINHA JULIA by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
7  TECHNE Apr13         (guerrero sal)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
  (by KLIMT out of CTIMENE by CONSOLIDATOR)
8  BERNIN HOT         (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of LAVENDER BABY by RUBIANO)
9  LIBERAL ARTS         (medina rob)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.00 7% 13.60    
  (by ARROGATE out of ISMENE by TRIBAL RULE)
 
CD-3   05/25/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRANA Apr28 Jan13 Dec07 Nov10   (hiles jef)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  LUNA MOTH May02 Apr19 Mar09 Feb22 Jan25 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.00    
3  WINDY BAY Apr21 Mar16 Feb17 Jan27 Dec31 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50 29% 2.40    
4  BYZANTINE Apr27 Feb17 Jan21 May04 Apr02 (morse l)NAVAS YOEL 117 5.00 39% 1.50    
5  INDY AGAIN Apr13 Feb08 Jan01 Nov04 Sep23 (arnold r)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
6  EAST SHORE Apr07 Nov27 Oct30 Oct02 Sep01 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 2.50    
 
CD-4   05/25/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNSTOPPABLE ME May01 Apr01 Mar21 Feb22 Feb08 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 124 15.00 10% 8.90    
2  BEOCCA Apr13 Mar17 Feb24 Jan21 Dec31 (castanon jose )CASTANON L 124 8.00 7% 13.20    
3  WRITEITONTHEICE May12 Apr29 Apr13 Mar04 Feb24 (fernandez edward)MCKEE J 124 2.50    
4  OUT OF ALCATRAZ Apr28 Apr08 Mar23 Mar03 Feb19 (shorter aaro)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 10.00    
5  SHAZIER         (vaccarezza carlo)NAVAS YOEL 117 3.00 39% 1.60    
6  SPRINKLEHEAD Apr29 Apr01 Mar04 Feb24 Jan28 (miller jerome)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.00    
7  PAID IN FULL May12 Mar25 Feb26 Feb17 Dec18 (hartlage g)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 4.00    
8  RONITHELIMODRIVER Apr29 Mar10 Feb17 Jan27 Jan06 (leonard iii)GRAHAM J 124 12.00 23% 3.30    
 
CD-5   05/25/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHISPER NOT (GB) May05 Apr02 Aug04 Jun12 Mar05 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 122 1.60    
2  MR. THUNDERSTRUCK Apr29 Apr01 Mar11 Feb10 Jan06 (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00    
3  EASY TIME Apr15 Jan01 Oct21 Jun12 May13 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 52% 0.90    
4  FLAGS UP May06 Mar30 Mar04 Feb10 Jan13 (baker james)LANERIE J 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  EDITORIAL COMMENT (ARG) Oct12 Sep24 Aug14     (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 20.00    
6  LEGAL ATTACK (GB) Mar30         (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 8.00 11% 7.80    
7  GALLANT GUY Apr26 Mar23 Jan14 Dec17 Nov23 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 122 30.00    
8  MARKET ANALYSIS Apr22 Jul09 May08 Apr02 Mar13 (sharp joe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 6.00 15% 5.60    
 
CD-6   05/25/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 4UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUNIOR BUG Mar26 Dec30 Dec08 Nov10 Oct11 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  TETSU May04 Apr06 Dec31 Dec11 Nov27 (manley st)LEPAROUX R 118 5.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jan08 Dec11 Nov23 Oct27 Oct12 (morse l)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
SCR  GORMLEYS GOT GAME Apr29 Feb21 Jan26 Jan12 Dec18 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
5  TEST PILOT May13 Apr21 Feb28 Jan21 Dec28 (cano juan )HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
6  KHOZAN'S SUCCESS Apr23 Aug30 Aug12 Jul22 Jul01 (becker sc)TORRES A 118 6.00 40% 1.50    
SCR  BRAWNDO Mar19 Jan15 Dec18 Nov24 Oct12 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
8  DOUBLY BLESSED Apr16 Mar19 Feb26 Jul04 Jun10 (vance r)LANERIE J 118 4.00 8% 11.70    
9  UPSTRIKER Apr15 Apr02 Feb26 Feb04 Jan07 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 3.50    
10  HOOPERDRIVESTHBOAT May04 Apr20 Mar18 Feb17 Nov17 (gowan will)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 5.00    
 
CD-7   05/25/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NON VIOLENCE Apr27 Feb12 Jan16 Dec22   (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 4.00 9% 10.60    
2  BEAUXS ARTES May04 Mar23 Feb16 Apr28 Mar27 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00 20% 4.00    
3  CANCEL THIS Nov27 Nov06 Oct15 Sep23 Aug27 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 123 2.50 6% 15.90    
4  CODE FOR SUCCESS Apr20 Jan25 Dec14 Nov06 Oct07 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 123 8.00    
5  THREE TIPSY CHIX Oct14 Aug27 Jun24 Apr27 Feb25 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00    
6  FINE COTTON May04 Mar11 Jan16 Dec19 Oct15 (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 8.00    
7  DAWNY Apr08 Mar26 Feb25 Jan29   (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 3.50 45% 1.20    
 
CD-8   05/25/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ICARUS May05 Apr22 Mar11 Feb25 Feb11 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00    
2  COOKE CREEK Apr20 Mar12 Jan28 Dec31 Jun18 (o'dwyer jere)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.50 17% 5.00    
3  SEARCH ENGINE Feb28 Feb11 Dec11 Nov04 Sep30 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00    
4  WAR CAMPAIGN Apr20 Mar16 Nov19 Oct22 Sep24 (sims a)LANERIE J 122 6.00 12% 7.70    
5  TRIDENT HIT Feb25 Jan21 Feb19 Jan28 Jan09 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00 8% 10.90    
6  TRAFALGAR Apr22 Apr02 Feb11 Jun12 May07 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 12.00    
7  COMMANDPERFORMANCE Apr06 Aug07 Jul10 Jun10 Apr09 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
8  TARTUFO Mar30 Feb05 Jan07 Nov27 Apr23 (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 122 20.00    
9  CREATIVE MINISTER Apr20 Mar16 Oct20 Sep24 Aug23 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 27% 2.70    
10  GILDED AGE Sep24 Aug27 Jul29 Jul04 Feb05 (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 122 3.00 13% 6.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.