Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - April 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/2)-(6/2/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/2)-(6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/2)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/2)-(1/2/5)-(6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-2   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(6/1)-(4/3/2/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-3   WIN (6/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/1)-(6/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/1)-(4/3/2/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/1)-(4/3/2/7)-(5/3/2/7) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
AQU-4   WIN (4/3/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/2/7)-(5/3/2/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2/7)-(5/3/2/7)-(4/8/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-5   WIN (5/3/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/2/7)-(5/3/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/2/7)-(5/3/2/7)-(5/3/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/3/2/7)-(4/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2/7)-(4/8/1)-(1/7/6/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-6   WIN (4/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/8/1)-(4/8/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/8/1)-(4/8/1/3)-(4/8/1/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/8/1)-(1/7/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/8/1)-(1/7/6/3)-(6/7/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/7/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/6/3)-(1/7/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/6/3)-(1/7/6/3)-(1/7/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/6/3)-(6/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/7/6/3)-(6/7/8)-(6/2/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-8   WIN (6/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/8)-(6/7/2/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/7/8)-(6/7/2/8)-(6/7/2/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/7/8)-(6/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
AQU-9   WIN (6/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/4)-(6/2/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/2/4)-(6/2/4/7)-(6/2/4/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   04/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAJESTIC MICHAEL         (dutrow anthony )CARMOUCHE K 118 6.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of EMILY B by SMART STRIKE)
2  ALTERNATE REALITY Mar10 Jan21 Dec29     (englehar)DAVIS A 118 8.00 15% 5.80    
  (by ALTERNATION out of PANCAKE by CORINTHIAN)
3  VENGE Jan14 Dec16       (ribaudo robe)CASTELLANO J 118 4.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CLASSIC POINT by FLATTER)
4  FINN'S MOMENT         (jerkens jam)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of FINN'S GIRL by BERNARDINI)
5  PHELPSY Sep18 Jul23       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.50 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SECRET SOMEONE by A.P. INDY)
6  D HOPPER Mar03         (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 125 1.00 56% 0.80    
  (by KANTHAROS out of K J WARRIOR by TAPIT)
 
AQU-2   04/21/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARINA (GER) Mar25         (brown c)ORTIZ L 118 0.60 ★    
1A  YUKATA (IRE)         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 0.60 41% 1.40    
2  BRAMBLE BAY Jan26 Dec02 Oct28 Sep18 Aug03 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 118 5.00 18% 4.60    
3  TONED UP Mar17 Feb24 Jan28 Dec30 Dec01 (chichakly amira)CANCEL ERIC 118 20.00    
4  CANISY Oct15 Sep17 Aug25 Jul14 Jun16 (clement chri)CASTELLANO J 118 2.50    
5  WONKA Mar25 Feb25 Jan28 Dec04 Oct14 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 6.00 13% 6.60    
SCR  IMPAZIBLE DONNA Mar12 Feb24 Dec04 Sep02 Aug06 (levine bruce)RIDER TBA 118 8.00 ★    
SCR  DANCING SOPHIA Mar26 Feb24 Jan13 Dec10 Nov17 (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00    
SCR  HONEY MONEY Apr16 Mar17 Feb12 Dec29 Dec11 (atras rob)RIDER TBA 120 1.80 ★    
SCR  MOVIE MOXY Apr16 Mar25 Mar17 Feb10 Jan29 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
 
AQU-3   04/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($82K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXCELLENT TIMING Mar12 Feb17 Jan21 Dec10 Sep23 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 122 1.40 21% 3.70    
2  PRESSURE Mar04 Jun21 May03 Apr08 Mar25 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 12.00    
SCR  KAZ'S BEACH Apr01 Feb18 Mar27 Mar05   (synnefias p)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 4.50 16% 5.20    
4  BEZOS Mar25 Jan27 Dec30 Dec17 Nov26 (goberd)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 15.00    
5  DOT'S DOLLAR Oct08 Sep17 Aug03 Jun11 May19 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00    
6  ROTKNEE Mar04 Jun29 May30 Apr02 Mar13 (maker michael )ORTIZ L 122 1.60 40% 1.50    
 
AQU-4   04/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN PURCHASE Apr02 Mar24 Feb25 Feb12 Feb02 (jones eduardo )BROWN DALTON 126 30.00    
2  GLOBAL IMAGE Mar11         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 118 2.50 15% 5.70    
3  PEJA DU         (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 118 4.50 16% 5.40    
4  MAGICAL WAYS Mar03 Jan08 Dec15 Nov11   (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 126 1.20 40% 1.50    
5  FINANCIAL STRENGTH Feb12 Sep03       (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00    
6  STEADY PROGRESS Apr15 Mar31 Mar12 Feb17 Feb02 (chat)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 8.00    
7  SUCCEED Mar24 Mar06 Feb05 Dec21 May28 (cash nor)GOMEZ ANTONIO 126 10.00 9% 10.80    
 
AQU-5   04/21/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($82K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN Mar26 Feb24 Jan12 Dec16 Nov25 (rodriguez ru)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00    
2  LIAM'S KISS Feb24 Jan28 Dec14 Mar03 Jan22 (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 122 5.00 10% 8.60    
3  KNOW IT ALL AUDREY Mar12 Feb12 Jan19 Dec17 Nov04 (barrera s)DAVIS DYLAN 122 2.50 19% 4.30    
4  ANATOLIAN Jul08 Jun18 May08 Mar27 Feb27 (maker mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 6.00    
5  SPIKED Feb24 Jan12 Nov25 Oct02 Jul29 (terranova joh)FRANCO MANUEL 122 1.80 45% 1.20    
6  INTO HAPPINESS Apr08 Feb24 Jan12 Dec11 Sep23 (nevin miche)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 8.00    
7  VEGAS WEEKEND Mar24 Feb24 Jan15 Jan05 Nov10 (kan)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-6   04/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BATTLEOFLEXINGTON Oct08 Aug25       (dan)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 118 10.00 7% 12.90    
  (by WAR CORRESPONDENT out of SAMARA STREET by STREET CRY (IRE))
2  UNAFFECTED Mar26         (romero rafael)DAVIS KATIE 118 15.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of GOLDEN MISS by GOLDEN MISSILE)
3  I'M JUST Mar18         (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 118 4.50 ★    
  (by AFLEET ALEX out of JE T'AIME by GOLD TOKEN)
4  RULE BREAKER Mar04         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.00 42% 1.40    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ARTEMIS AGROTERA by ROMAN RULER)
5  METEORITE         (jerkens a)CARMOUCHE K 118 6.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of LEAVEMINTHEDUST by DANZIG)
6  INSPECTOR Dec08 Oct27 Sep29     (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
  (by FLATTER out of FENWICK HALL by FREUD)
7  WANNA WINNA Mar26 Feb26 Jan06 Dec08 Nov13 (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 8.00    
  (by BLAME out of PLEASED by BERNARDINI)
8  REFUAH Mar26 Feb17 Jan19 Nov27 Oct20 (walder pete)MCCARTHY TREVOR 126 2.50 24% 3.20    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of SMITTEN CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
AQU-7   04/21/2023 5610ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNION DOLLY Jan25 Dec23 Nov06 Oct07 Sep05 (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 127 2.00 14% 6.40    
2  GAME THEORY Mar31 Mar18 Mar11 Feb20 Feb09 (jones eduard)HARKIE K 125 30.00    
3  FROM HELLO Mar24         (brow)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 20.00 6% 17.10    
4  UP HER SLEEVE Feb19 Jan28 Dec30 Dec02 Oct22 (levine bruce)CASTELLANO J 127 8.00    
5  R GIRL FAITH Feb20 Jan20 Dec18 Nov27 Oct28 (tho)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 127 30.00    
6  BRISKY FROLIC Mar12 Feb24 Jan13 Dec10 Oct14 (maker mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 127 10.00 10% 9.30    
7  BELLA PRINCIPESSA Mar31 Mar11 Aug11 Jul17 Jun12 (klesaris ro)MCCARTHY TREVOR 125 8.00 10% 9.20    
8  LADY OF THOROTON Nov19 Oct20 Oct08 Sep22 Aug24 (englehart chris)DAVIS KATIE 125 10.00    
SCR  DONTMESSWITHTESS Mar26 Feb24 Jan25 Dec23 Dec04 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 127 1.40 36% 1.80    
SCR  SHE CAUGHT MY EYE Apr13 Jan22 Jan06 Dec08 Oct20 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 127 1.80    
 
AQU-8   04/21/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAVARIAN CREME Mar05 Feb10 Nov26 Oct29 Sep30 (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 122 5.00    
2  SWEET MYSTERY Dec29 Dec01 Oct30 Oct09 Sep15 (quick patri)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 3.50 ★    
SCR  HAPPY SOPHIA Mar19 Feb05 Jan08 Dec29 Dec11 (rodriguez g)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 8.00    
4  MIA BEA STAR Apr02 Mar12 Feb10 Jan19 Dec30 (persaud rand)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00    
5  AMITY ISLAND Apr02 Mar25 Mar19 Feb10 Jan29 (goberd)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 20.00    
6  STONE CREATOR Mar03 Feb09 May27 Apr29 Mar27 (baker charlton)CARMOUCHE K 120 1.80 52% 0.90    
7  KHALI MAGIC Mar03 Feb05 Dec29 Dec11 Oct23 (englehart chr)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00 9% 10.50    
8  THINKING IT OVER Mar19 Oct15 Sep02 Jul15 May28 (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-9   04/21/2023 3960ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FATHER OF LIES Mar10         (noda orlando)CASTELLANO J 118 6.00    
2  DON'T LET ME DOWN Mar15 Feb04 Dec29 Dec01 Nov06 (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 118 3.50 21% 3.90    
SCR  SHAKIN THE BELLE         (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00    
4  BRASS MONKEY Apr01 Mar05 Feb12     (klesaris ro)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 8.00 9% 10.20    
5  LEO FONG         (summers chad)DAVIS KATIE 118 8.00    
6  OLD POINT Mar31 Mar12 Feb25 Jan19 Nov13 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 120 3.00 31% 2.30    
7  NIEUWENDYK Mar24 Feb24 Jan19 Dec29 Dec01 (begg jame)VARGAS A 118 4.50 ★    
SCR  ANOINTED SPIRIT         (chin pet)DAVIS A 118 30.00    
9  SWAY'SINMYDNA Mar11 Feb24 Jan20 Jan14   (chatt)HERNANDEZ OMAR 111 15.00    
10  WEALLLIKEDHIM Mar31 Mar10 Dec29 Dec09   (legall ricar)SAMUEL L 125 30.00    
SCR  LITTLE SKIPPY Apr07 Mar19       (brown r)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 19% 4.20    
SCR  PINE ALLEY Mar20 Feb09 Dec29 Nov22   (ryerson t)RIDER TBA 118 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.